Cyneheard's PBEM10 Thread

[Cyneheard]

Let's see:

Cyneheard: 6 cities.
Everybody else: 3 (Genghis) or 4 cities.

Cyneheard: Full set of contacts:
Qin and Napoleon: Each other, and me.
Genghis, Gilgamesh and Boudica: Each other, and me.

Demogs:



Let's test that old maxim, "food is power". Currency due T61 or 62.

And, yes, I feel awful for not posting a T50 update after suggesting everyone do it.

[Cyneheard]

Current diplo deals:

Border deal w/ Adhoc/Gilgamesh. Comes with NAP, OB, 43EP limit, T75 minimum, 7t cooldown. He owes me rice at some point.

Tatan/Napoleon: 43EP.

[Cyneheard]

Oh, note to self:

TT folds in war. This does not present me with an opportunity, since I don't border him. Instead, this is a problem (unless Ilios is being helpful and making sure that TT doesn't act like a Noble AI). The worst thing that could happen is Mr. Great Lights gets free territory. Gilgamesh/ad hoc getting such free stuff is bad enough, but manageable. Even if he is a neighbor...I should have a LOT more cities than he does. Especially if Tatan is slow to expand onto the island next to us. That island has room for 4 cities. I endeavor to claim at least three of them. Which will require backing them up with real troops. Goody. Must find iron...

Triremes SHOULD give TT easy defense of his home island. Should.

Option 1) Try to engineer an anti-meatbalz OB embargo. This will slow him down, and may lead to hostilities...which is why I doubt Serdoa will go for it. He's playing a builder's game, with the PYRAMIDS and all that (even at +150%, that's still an expensive wonder).

Option 2) Encourage Ad Hoc to go south. Funnel intel on TT's navy, etc. etc.

Option 3) Do nothing.

[Cyneheard]

Should probably mention this:

HG completes next turn.

Was already at 41/201, I get stone online next turn, with 32 overflow from a barracks, 2 chops (another 40), and can work enough tiles to get 8 hammers in the capital without even trying, for 80*2 = 160. So, if the other guys aren't building HG on T63, it's mine. For 7 pop, too. Not too shabby, and this means I'll be the one with the Engineer points to play around with.

And Meatbalz...I talked to TT, but he's got to check his agreements for whether or not he wants to cut off OBs. If he's willing, then I think we all need to. Meatbalz's up to 18 trade routes, and that's if he hasn't grabbed Currency yet, which would just be ugly. Well, at least I'm trying to out-REX him.

Planned tech path:

MC --> IW (Where is it? Rumor has it that there's no iron on the triangle or on the nearby islands. If not, well, Kyan, you've played a very dangerous game with the metal). Then it's through the religious line to Theology. I need a religion, and would rather not have to borrow it from a neighbor. And Theocracy is awesome as Charismatic naval builders. I'll get Theo, then straight to Monarchy and Feudalism (Priesthood should come in before Monarchy, I guess), we'll see how many revolts I end up doing: Not 3 for HR, Vassalage, and Theo, but likely 2 somehow. Combat II Triremes should be unstoppable naval defenders, and I'm sure I can come up with some fun with some mobile galleys...

Then from there, Guilds? Dropping Knights on someone might be fun. Especially if they aren't well-speared. That's thinking too far ahead of the game.

[Cyneheard]

HG complete. 7 pop gained.

Demogs before HG (but after substantial whipping because I was trying to not make the jump look quite as large):



Demogs after HG (and an end-turn growth or two):


42 of those 88 or 92 beakers are from trade routes. And two more settlers just completed: Going to put one onto the eastern island, the other somewhere around the home triangle, and start flying workers and units over to swarm that eastern island. I think I can get all four cities down in 15t, with a few triremes for defense. Need probably 3 galleys total for traffic duty, have 1 available and one almost complete (plus the one galley that's heading to the NE to hopefully find iron. That city may take precedence over getting all 4 island spots, but WOW are those good island spots.)

And I think Currency was definitely the right call there...

[Cyneheard]

Oh, hey, diplomacy afoot:

TT responding to my query about a Meatbalz OB Embargo:

Cyneheard,

After some consideration, I am prepared to consider breaking my agreement with meatbalz after some provocations and join you in a trade embargo of meatbalz.

However, I need some guarantees from the rest of the players including yourself if I am to go through with it. Breaking the agreement will mean war with meatbalz, likely to the destruction of one or the other of us.

What I require is this:

A guarantee that noone will declare on me while the result of the war between myself and meatbalz is undecided.

A guarantee that anyone with metal trades it to me for my war. I will make a payment to whoever supplies it once it is no longer needed.

I would also be prepared to talk with meatbalz's nearest neighbour on a combined war & division of lands if they are interested.

Let me know if that sounds reasonable,

TT

My response:

I'll send something around to the other 3 players tonight; Serdoa is the other neighbor, and I think (I'll double-check) you two have contact?

And congratulations on the Colossus. Shame there was no copper to speed it along.

Metal: I've been told by Ad Hoc that iron's only on tiny outlying islands; if that's the case, then iron is going to be a very difficult commodity to get, and I'm not sure if anyone else will be willing to send any to you. I'll do what I can, and once I finish MC, IW is up next (Triremes are more critical IMO). If/when I got access to iron, I could send it to you within a few turns of getting it online: I'd want to whip a round of spears and axes (figure that each of my cities can get 1-2 out in 2-3t), and then could send it along. PBEM is very helpful for that: I can offer the iron, still use it that turn, and then you'd get it for 10t.

I think that pretty much says how I feel: this is good news, if it works. A bloody war between those two = awesome. If one player dies, whatever. I'll gladly send metal down, but will probably need it back for brief periods to get some units built.

Let's see what happens.

[Cyneheard]

Below's what I sent out to the non-TT or Meatbalz players. Yes, I was careful about the personal bits on each of the three messages.

I'm sending this identical e-mail to all three of Ad Hoc, Tatan, and Serdoa, to discuss a full embargo on Meatbalz for Open Borders, to keep the Great Lighthouse from letting him run away with the game. Right now, he's got 21 trade routes. That's 63 free commerce because of all the open borders he has with everyone. 80-84, if he's got Currency. His low score just means that we have time to deal with him, but not all that much. Since we don't have full mutual contact (not sure how Serdoa and Ad Hoc can get contact quickly), someone has to end up with forwarding duty, and I'm the only one of the four of us with full contact. Anything sent to me will get promptly forwarded to whoever you want.

We don't have to have an agreement immediately, but the sooner the better.

The plan is that the four of us would all agree not to sign OBs with Meatbalz, and Twinkletoes expects that he will end up at war with Meatbalz. If he can't get our support, he won't cut OBs, which limits the value of any of us doing so (and everyone, including myself, except for Tatan has signed OBs with Meatbalz: the only way this truly makes sense is if we all act together on this one).

Twinkletoes is willing to do this under two conditions:
1) The rest of us agree not to fight TT for the duration of his war with Meatbalz. I can forward any negotiations/conditions you may want to Twinkletoes, if desired.
2) Metal: To the extent possible, we would need to find a way to get him access to some; TT promises to return payment "once it is no longer needed": this should probably be clarified. I'm willing to do so if/when I get access to iron; it's amazing what a well-timed set of whips could generate in 2-3t for internal defenses before shipping it off for 10t.

(Following sent only to Ad Hoc):
You've got contact with TT, but neither Serdoa or Tatan do. Can we agree to let each other know what info comes to light from discussions with either him or the other two?

(Following sent only to Tatan):
Any reason for us not to sign OBs, so that we don't lose Trade Route income if this goes through?

(Following sent only to Serdoa):
TT did say that he's willing to discuss splitting the lands if you want. I didn't get the impression that he needed support if he's going to invade/fight, and it's indirect enough from me that I'm not going to be any more than a forwarder on that aspect.

-- Cyneheard of Carthage

I know it's a wall or two of text, but there's not a great way to summarize it otherwise. If things fall apart, and this leaks to Meatbalz, whatever. It's not on my head if that happens...TT's the one who has an agreement to worry about. And this whole thing was my idea, and I can't lose if it goes wrong.

[pocketbeetle]

So how goes the scheming oh Charismatic one?

[Cyneheard]

In a word: confusing.

I'm not sure what Ad Hoc wants to do, and it looks more and more like Meatbalz is going to be just fine.

In the east, after some worrying by Tatan (he thought I was coming to poach an iron site), we cut a deal:

Both of us got an iron site, and each of us gets 2 cities on the shared island.



My two sites are the western ones; he'll get two sites along the western coast, where doesn't matter to me.

I'm not sure why I got such a good deal, since it's not like I could have done anything if he'd settled to block me and started cranking out some spears. What could I have done? Brought 3 Numids per spear to his city? Yuck.

Let me explain why I think the 4-tile island with 2 irons was a mistake for game balance IMO.

First, easy horses and no copper: Brilliant wrench in our plans. Makes Protective great early, and forces players to adapt if they want an early war. However, I made the (clearly wrong) assumption that Iron would be reasonably accessible. After all, if a player can't get ANY metal, then that either gives the game to those who
a) Get metal because it's hard-to-access but not impossible
or, even worse, b) Gives the game to someone who POPS copper or iron. It's bad enough when someone's the only player with gold/gems/silver because they got a lucky pop, that's 1-2 happy and a few pennies of commerce. But if I'm the only one with a secure metal site because I got lucky with the RNG? That's crazy. France in PB3 had that huge stroke of luck getting copper in Paris which nearly saved them (if they weren't completely full of by attacking recklessly out of Paris). I think it's reasonable to say that this shouldn't happen twice in the...uh...four games I've played. One of which, PBEM5B, included a mod that REMOVED the ability to pop anything.

So, why do I think that this set-up qualifies as a)?
Two things:
1) It's really non-obvious, when exploring, that the four-tile islands are valuable, or how many of them there are. If there's 6 of them, and they all hold iron, then I should be able to get iron if I don't screw up. It was pretty clear that the large green islands were good land, and if I get 30% or 40% of them, that's because I was slow.

If there's another one of those islands directly to my west, I can see absolutely no evidence of it by land, and it's not like you can assume I'd be able to send a galley roaming through my neighbor's land.

2) It's too easy for one player, by being just a few turns faster, to block the entire island from being settled. This is the real problem: By Tatan being a few turns faster than me, he could be first to iron (duh) (and that's balanced), but also, if he so desired, could have made it impossible for me to get iron of my own. That's not balanced, that's leaving a giant loophole for one player to walk through and completely destroy his neighbor's ability to fend for himself. I get no margin of error, and that's a problem: to purposely design a map than one or two little mistakes + some ruthlessness from a neighbor (If I was Tatan, I'd be blocking Carthage's ability to get iron. Period. Fortunately, Tatan was a coward) = a dead or crippled civ.

Now, having shared iron makes for a very interesting situation, because now I've got to defend my only metal source by land and sea. That's tough (and, again, someone will benefit greatly if they pop copper or iron on safer terrain), but manageable from a balance perspective. But it's too easy for a player to gain a huge advantage over their neighbor. If you were going to do this 2-iron island deal, I think it would need to have been a five-tile island (diagonal works) like so:

Iron-Nothing-Nothing-Nothing-Iron.

That way, if, with one settler, I wanted to claim the whole island for myself, it would take 50 culture (so ~20t for even our Creative player, an eternity) before iron would be inside my borders. Now, as long as I get one settler on that island before my neighbor gets two, I'm fine. And I should be able to do that, or negotiate a deal so that I get that. Tatan had no good reason to accept my deal, because I don't see how he couldn't have won a war where once he unloads 2 spears, I'm in a world of trouble.

I'll check Meatbalz/Serdoa's shared island when I get the save (that's with Tatan), but I think I remember seeing a similar 4-tile island that had a Boudica city on it, and no room for a 2nd site. Depending on where the iron is...

[Cyneheard]

Sent to Serdoa:

IW suggests that you may have a problem...if Meatbalz realizes what he's got. It seems that there are three islands with iron on them, and each one is 4 tiles with 2 sources. The evidence suggests that Meatbalz either doesn't know or just recently learned where his iron is, since I saw no sign of workers or anything a couple turns back. I believe that his iron city is currently covered by a single chariot; it may be a single archer. If Meatbalz accidentally prevented you from getting any metal...this was not the best metal design.

I've only got guaranteed access to one iron.

Cyneheard

Attached was this pic (screened of proprietary information, of course):