RB PBEM #10 [SPOILERS] - Meatbalz

[meatbalz]

From Tatan

Well... this is interesting. I appreciate your trust; sorry if I've come off as "at arm's length", but the Great Lighthouse is a scary thing. It does seem, though, that Cyneheard is rising. I have no fear of him at the moment, because we have a NAP until Turn 95, but I will watch the Power graph for any signs of danger.

You have guessed my plans against Serdoa exactly; I must have been pretty obvious, because Serdoa guessed them, too, and emailed me about it. We are currently in negotiations.

I don't really know anything else to say... it seems that you and Cyneheard are turning into Arch-Nemeses in this game, and I don't want to choose between either of you quite yet.

SO much useful info in one short mail...
1) Tatan hates me because of TGL. Now it's clear. I looked back through our prior correspondence: we've communicated 3 times, and 3 times it's been mentioned now. This time he outright told me he's scared of TGL. An interesting paragraph from our last contact:

Coincidentally, I just found your borders this turn, so I should be able to have trade routes. However, I'm afraid I am going to have to decline Open Borders, because frankly I am a bit scared of your trade routes as seen in the Demographics right now. I might be interested later if other players became more threatening

Let's see if I can convince him CH is more threatening.

2) Obviously, they have a NAP to T95
3) Confirmation he's attacking Serdoa
4) Serdoa has contacted him (I didn't know) and they're negotiating. I.e. Serdoa is stalling for time until he can get LBs up and running.
5) I'm going to try and leverage the arch-nemesis comment and see if I can extract some info
6) That last part from Tatan is pure BS until proven otherwise: he has a NAP with CH and doesn't even have OB with me... pretty obvious which one he's chosen.



From Serdoa

MB,

thanks for the info. I am building up military on my own but AH is right that without iron, I will not be able to defend myself properly. Especially the city on the island is probably doomed.

It would probably be a good idea to find out if he is really after me (not that I have much doubt on that) and maybe trying to find out at which turn and which spot especially.

Kind regards,
Serdoa

MB,

another thing: I have got my next GP, it is a scientist again. Another GP will be born next turn - 30% odds of being a prophet. I will contact Tatan soon and depending on what comes out of that conversation I might be very inclined to buy troops (if possible) for a GP I do have enough that I probably can fend him off, but if you have some catapults for example, I would really like several so I could go on the offensive sooner.

Additionally, can you let me know the turn I should request the 35 gold? Or will you simply offer? I am asking because I have to get some techs finished soon in order to get some more ... advanced troops

Kind regards,
Serdoa

Not much I didn't already know, except Serdoa is on the back foot more than I would have thought short-term. I know his power was low, but...

I would love to help him, but I have no catapults. And no LBs I can spare. Iron is getting mined next turn, the road finishes the turn after. So unless he can fend for himself for 3T, he might lose some ground if Tatan attacks...

I did suggest a possible use of his next GPerson would be to gift it to me in exchange for gold for LB upgrades. But right now Serdoa and I are quite far apart in terms of what we think a GP is worth. I get one in 2T and am praying it's not another merchant.


There is more from Serdoa, but I'll wait to see how that plays out... no doubt lurkers know what's happening with CH's plans for the AP. Basically Serdoa and I both think it's an awful offer, Serdoa's scared TT will take it and wants me to talk to him, I'd rather not because it would:
a) reveal Serdoa + I share info (sensitive info to boot)
b) probably push TT even more to CH, since I'm his enemy and anything I advise him not to do is probably in his interest (even when it's not, like this deal which is completely one-sided in favor of CH)


From Ad Hoc

It turns out cancelling OBs and then re-signing the same turn doesn't cancel a resource deal. AH and I found out when we got locked into 5 more turns of Iron. He didn't ask me for more gold, but I sent him 80gc last turn anyway.

Despite this, relations on that front have cooled a bit for the time being. It could just be AH being annoyed about the iron or being very focused on the TT front so I won't read too much into it.

Note to self: must send rsch to AH.



On city development, I've reached the point where adding new cities is gold-neutral at 0% rsch. Fortunately I only have 1 more to go, on Serdoa/MB island. 2 at most if I decide to plant another site on central island. 100% rsch = 240/turn.

And I just realized last turn I've made a huge mistake

I was convinced I was building ToA in the ivory/horse/river 2nd city site. Instead I'm building it in city 3 which will do nothing but churn out troops for the entire game. How could I be so stupid????? This has been going for 3T...

[meatbalz]

it's been a while since i updated so a few lines (no pictures, sorry )

state of the Arabian empire: decent.

CH's development is off the friggin' charts and puts mine to shame (he says he'll have every tile on his island improved by T90, i'm... not even close to that), i think Tatan may be marginally ahead as well. i'm 1st in production, 3rd in food. many turns of OR are paying dividends.

Research wise... thanks to HBR overflow, machinery will take 2T (i.e. due end of this turn). Fast. I'm 2T behind schedule unfortunately due to the extra 80g I had to send AH and the 140g spent on archer->LB upgrades. That just means a bit less troops on T100 - I might supplement with HAs.



Diplo

AH
Will attack TT ~T88. Probably 5T too early for me to benefit. If I could somehow stall AH until T92-93... that would be just enough time for TT to mobilize his considerable forces over to AH's side. T88 is too early. In 12T that war will be finished and TT's forces will be back in place. I can't really complain - my target is going to be softened up before I attack. But there's a few ways this can go badly wrong, including 1) TT capitulating; and 2) TT not capitulating, but getting his butt handed to him by AH anyway.

Big decision to make. I think realistically the only way to stall is to bring AH in on my plan. I.e. you attack T90 or so, soften him up, then I come in T100, annihilate TT, and we share the land. But that means splitting up the land beforehand, I'd definitely want both the capital and the Colossus, not sure AH would agree to that. I will need to think about this.


Serdoa
Not much happening in the way of updates


Tatan


yesterday I sent him a response to his email, which I had to reword a couple of times so it didn't sound like I was talking down to him. I'll post the contents when I get a reply, but the main points are:
1) he's treated me like an enemy all game but now expects me to do his bidding because he asks :neenernee
2) he's only wanted to deal if it's in his advantage but wants me to do the opposite :neenernee
3) if he wanted the GL so much he should have bloody built it himself :neenernee
4) all this is pretty rich coming from someone who let CH have perpetual iron access for nothing in return :neenernee

summary: :neenernee

[meatbalz]

Catching up



Machinery just came in on the rsch front. I'll need to go through my builds to determine whether I want to revolt now or in 5T - my builder-first instinct is telling me to stick with OR for a few more turns but I'm not sure that's the best play since a couple of my island cities are running out of essential infrastructure to build.


Diplo fast and furious:

Serdoa

Hi mb,

thanks for the iron. It seems Tatan is a little bit upset. I tried to explain him (after seeing his message in the public player thread) that I did not get it for nothing but had to pay. Thats not exactly the truth but also not completely lied either, so I guess its diplomacy

My next GP will be born in 6 turns. Yeah, I'm churning them out right now like crazy. That will soon change unfortunately. I feel that Tatan war-plans have damaged my game pretty badly, though that will only be visible in another 20 turns probably. Anyway, if a prophet shows up, I'll let you know.

Kind regards,
Serdoa

Ad Hoc

Going to try and beg one more favour from you.

you just had a workboat go along the north coast of TT's island, could you tell me if the tile 3S and 2W of my city of Skeln Pass is a city, i know it's a grassland hill but can't see from bleed through if it's a city. if it's not i can land straight onto a hill with my units.

i see TT has built the AP, okay the extra hammers are nice but i still think its a strange thing to do in MP

OH, and just to let you know my galley killed the barb galley so that annoyance has gone.

Ad Hoc

I'm going to have to answer no to that request, since it would violate my NAP with TT now that I know he's definitely going to attack. The way the relationship between me and AH develops over the next 5T is critical & I'm still of the opinion I expressed several turns ago that AH is the diplo lynchpin.



Me to Tatan:

I assume you refer to my supplying Serdoa with iron. The fact is, what he offers is very attractive.

All game, you've refused trades with me because they don't benefit you more than me. For example refusing OBs because you hadn't defogged a route to my lands - something that didn't stop anyone else. But despite you refusing to trade unless it benefits you, you want me to do the opposite when Serdoa puts an offer on the table and all I have from you is a request not to trade him iron. I don't think that's reasonable.

I saw your post in the public player thread, and if you really think I'm giving Serdoa iron for nothing in return, you're either angry (which I think is the case) or you're being naive.

I'm willing to bet that what I get in exchange from Serdoa is significantly better than what you got from CH in exchange for letting him found on your iron island - so do you really feel you're in a position to criticize me? And bear in mind, I've locked Serdoa out of access to iron unless I give it to him. You gave the strongest player in the game the chance to settle his own iron source, for basically nothing.

I'll tell you how I think the next turns are going to play out. You'll make some brief headway against Serdoa. He'll start pushing you back and you'll be at each others' throats. You'll hate him, and me, me even more than him probably. You might even decide to take a shot at my central island city. Sometime around T95-100, Cyneheard is going to declare war on you and, even if you have a few turns' warning, you simply won't be able to muster the troops to repel him because you're committed in the South against Serdoa.

Simply put, you've gotten in bed with the wrong person. Try to take a step back and look at how you and I have interacted all game. You've rebuffed me all game long, because I built a wonder every player had the chance to build. You've buddied up to the undispited number 1 power, given him game-long iron access for very little in return, and are sharing military plans with him despite the fact those plans put you in a very vulnerable position when your NAP expires and that he's already shown in this game he's devious.

I can understand you're angry - emotions run high during war. I hope you'll take a step back once the initial anger wears off and realize that maybe I'm right.

MB

Tatan to me:

Allow me to clarify one point: I am not mad about the deal itself [regardless of the terms]; what I am mad about is the fact that you are trading/giving/whatever a very valuable strategetic resource to someone I'm at war with. Serdoa went from the perfect victim to a deathtrap in a very short number of turns, and your iron is a primary contributor to that. To me, this is tantamount to Serdoa buying an army off of you to use against me; it is perfectly logical and justifiable, but surely you can understand that I'm still going to be angry at you.

As for the Public Player Thread post, that was mostly anger, I admit.

I won't go into the agreement I made with Cyneheard other than to say that under the cicrumstance at the time of the deal, it certainly looked balanced to me, and while it may not have been the smartest thing I believe it was justifiable.

Regarding your predictions for my actions in the upcoming turns, all I have to say is that I certainly will try to prevent them from happening, though I grant it might require skill I don't have.

I don't doubt the validity of many of your arguments, but I will simply point out that things looked very different when I made many of my now-questionable decisions.

-Tatan

Haven't thought of a response yet, and whether this even merits one.

[fluffyflyingpig]

Given that TT repeatedly broke the NAP, why are you not willing to break it in turn? Either by scouting or outright cooperation with AH for an early, coordinated strike?

[meatbalz]

game has fallen into a bit of a lull for me, I sent AH a message back saying I couldn't provide him with the info, I haven't contacted serdoa for a while, didn't reply to tatan, haven't spoken to CH or TT for several turns... my diplo has definitely slowed. AH and I in particular are avoiding the elephant in the room of TT; I'm going to wait him out and see whether he suggests a split of the land. He's probably waiting to see how the first 2-3 turns of the offensive go.

I see ilios is posting in the lurker thread I feel increasingly out of the loop but don't have time for extensive diplo at the moment

AH answered back saying he's delayed his attack by 2T "to have the best team on the field", so I guess D-Day is T90 now. if TT puts up a good fight (big if) that MIGHT be just enough time for me to sweep in.

I think what I need to do is engage TT in diplo, asking for NAP renewal terms. i think given the military i've seen (more on that in a sec), i might need to drop a hint. that way when AH attacks, I'm the "good neighbor" - if he decides to capitulate, maybe he'll gift his cities to me, stranger things have happened
I mean, if he throws in the towel and pisses everyone off, I might as well benefit right?


Right, now for some scheming:

I don't have a detailed attack plan (pointless to, really, when I don't know how much progress AH will make), but my current line of thinking is to envelop TT from the south, using Graph as the launching point for an attack on his Hindu holy city and cutting off supply lines to Lagash which I can then pick off at my leisure.

realistically, with AH having a 10 turn head start on me, I may struggle to capture Eridu; I don't even know where the capital is, so that might be out of reach too.

but in an ideal world, the main strike force would hit Eridu on T101 (station fleet just outside territory T99, land next to Eridu T100). TT has a recently-founded coastal city in the SE which I can pick off. I would love to also claim the central island city, perhaps a trireme-galley-2x knight can be spared depending on how the AH/TT conflict plays out. and with Lagash that would make 4 cities, all coastal.


I have a huge unknown, which is: how many forces should I build? it's a question that's impossible to answer right now. unfortunately the timing works out in such a way that I have to go into this blind, i.e. I’d rather research compass->optics then engineering, but that would mean I forego knights. if AH sweeps up TT, then I don't need knights, I can just over-run Lagash & central island city with existing forces and continue down the builder path stronger by 2 cities. if the conflict turns into a slugfest then 2x-moving knights can devastate an already-weakened TT in a handful of turns.


I don't want to stay on the guilds beeline just because I've committed to it until now - it's still early enough to back out. then again, from the power charts I'm not sure AH has the firepower to sweep through TT quickly. but on the other hand my scouting work boat has seen worryingly little military from TT, very very little. I've seen a big navy, but few troops. no cats. no LBs. unless he has a ton of troops in the capital he's a sitting duck. but surely he has troops stashed away, he must know AH is coming for him? however his track record in previous games shows he's desperately poor at preparing for an attack even if he knows it's coming.... lots and lots of variables.

the thing is, I have several military units due to be completed this turn so I’ll be revolting to theo+vassalage (CH did last turn). Question is, what troops do I bring to the party assuming, as appears likely, I press the attack?

What I’d like to have
4 LBs for defense
1 xbow for cover
2 spears for cover
6 cats
8-10 CAs
4 triremes
6 galleys

What I have right now:
4 LBs, 2 spears, 1 cat, 1 trireme, 3 galleys

So I need
1 xbow
5 cats – 2 are due next turn
3 triremes
3 galleys
8-10 CAs

That’s 800-900 hammers in 12 turns accounting for anarchy. And bearing in mind the main producing cities need to build the troops front-end loaded to give them time to be in place by T99. I think with some judicious whipping that’s doable.

I suppose the good news is, even if AH overruns TT the bulk of that stuff will be useful on defense anyway, and the CAs won’t get built since they’re the last to come anyway.

Interesting times…

Oh, and @ FFPig - because I like to honor my agreements

[Square Leg]

I believe that Illios has left the team now.

I'm sure he'll be along here shortly!

[meatbalz]

Any takers among the lurkers to play a turn for me this weekend? It wouldn't require anything more than switching to theocracy+vassalage, and ferrying a couple of troops around + it's a good chance to poke around the game

[Brian Shanahan]

Sorry but I'm pretty heftily spoilered. I'd do it otherwise.

[mackoti]

I will like(enjoy) to do that.

[meatbalz]

thanks for the offer mackoti but i've already played the turn, which consisted of little more than tweaking tile assigments and revolting to vassalage and theo. guilds due in 3T. diplo still dead in the water, i haven't had time. tatan + serdoa made peace and i have no idea what's going on