Adventure 4: Yosh's Report.

[Yosh]

The report can be found at http://earth.deeplysuperficial.net/civ/rbadventure4.htm[url="http://earth.deeplysuperficial.net/civ/rbadventure4.htm"]
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It was actually an easier game than I had thought it would be, but maybe I was just scarred by my Adventure 2 experience!

Hope ya'all enjoy - my apologies in advance for the gaps in it - I just got so into the game!

[EDIT: EEP! I mistyped and put .html instead of what it should have been, .htm! Thanks Rick for pointing it out!]

[Rik Meleet]

http://earth.deeplysuperficial.net/civ/r...ture4.html gives me a "page cannot be found message" ...

[Zalson]

WOW! Complete opposite of my game; nukes and wars, oh my! lol. Good game.

[Yosh]

Thanks! Yeah, I decided to use the nuke in the end just because I was curious to see how it would affect relations.

Strangely enough, Izzie was the only person I warred, although there were a couple AI-AI wars during the game (in contrast to Arathorn's game, where he had 0 AI wars not "initiated" by him)

[Threepwood]

Yes, interesting to read. But it seems as if there are still 2 pictures missing!?


Threepwood

[Yosh]

ack! how embarassing!

I've fixed that issue; now all the pictures will appear properly.

Thanks for pointing these out!

I guess that's what happens when you post your report from work!

[Kylearan]

Hi,

nice game! Transporting a spy on a sub to Izzy was a good move; I definately have to use spies more in my games.

Regarding your gripe with the pRNG/combat odds display, of course it might be that there is a problem in the software somewhere. But remember that humans are notoriously bad at getting a feel for random numbers. Losing two 95% fights in a row isn't so uncommon after all. It *will* happen once every 400 battles on average. And note that after losing the first fight, the odds for losing the second one were still 5%, not less!

There's a famous experiment where humans are told to produce chains of 0s and 1s randomly. It turns out that the human will avoid generating chains of 0s or 1s like 1111 - in fact they will avoid them more than they occur in reality. The human is very, very bad with randomness, both producing random numbers and having a feel for the odds of things to happen.


That said, somehow my mounted/artillery units with flank *never* manage to retreat! Never ever! Argh. But then my luck with huts seems to be incredibly good.

-Kylearan

[Yosh]

Thanks for the comments!

The human is very, very bad with randomness, both producing random numbers and having a feel for the odds of things to happen.

That is VERY true, and I've taken that into account, however, I've gotten into a habit of taking a screenshot of combat logs when I do lose those 90%+ battles, and looking through them, I'm seeing that over the course of maybe 4 games or so (let's arbitrarily say 400 battles total), there have been more than *20* such incidents! Perhaps I am wrong and I'm just being a particularly good example of the non-randomness of human thinking, but to me it seems fishy.

IIRC from my college math course (don't ask how well I did in it... just don't!), the odds of an event happening x out of n times is x(!?) / n! - or somewhere thereabouts

Where x! is the factoral of the possibility of the event happening, and n! is the factoral of the number of times you are "flipping the coin", so to speak.

*shrug*

You and Arathorn are bothered by the WFYABTA thing, but this is my pet peeve, to the point where sometimes, I'm just ready to stop playing entirely until the next patch comes out!

That being said however, I'm not usually very good on following through with that little personal promise of mine!

[regoarrarr]

I think what Kylearan was saying (and you probably already know this) is that once you lost the first 95% battle, that didn't change your chances for the 2nd outcome. It still was 95%.

[Yosh]

Yea I gotcha - my 3 a.m. math was incorrect, but what I was trying to do was demonstrate the liklihood of losing a 95% battle two times in a row