PBEM3 Spoilers - timmy827 of Khmer

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Received from scooter:

GES,

Thanks for the message. It seems I've either been unclear or you've misunderstood a few things, so let's see if I can clear some things up.

First, perhaps I have overestimated your chance of winning. A lurker asked me about that in my thread, saying something like "ok what do you REALLY think the percentages are?" and I was sort of surprised, because that's what I really felt they were. That said, I haven't checked the tech screen to work out where you are in quite awhile. I was under the assumption that we are pretty close to technological equals (with me having a slight edge), so if I'm further ahead than I realize, then maybe I overestimated. I just remembered TImmy got Rifles within a few turns of me getting it, so I figured he was pretty much right with me technologically. You have a much better idea of where you stand than I do, so maybe you are right. 5% sounds much too low to me, but I I'm not exactly an unbiased neutral observer either so take it with a grain of salt .

It sounds like I somehow made you think I want you to attack Sandover? I'm not sure how I did that, but no I don't want you to do that... Any attempted invasion of Sandover would be pure suicide. Myself, you, and SleepingMoogle have been piling troops to defend against Sandover, not to attack him. Just 3 weeks ago Amelia, Timmy, and SleepingMoogle all wanted to concede the game to Sandover, and I said no - I felt he was still beatable because he was falling a bit behind in tech. I admitted at the time though that if he was able to conquer SleepingMoogle's land, that the game WOULD be over at that point. I felt and still believe that the best chance of beating Sandover is to prevent him from taking more land, and riding out the fact that we have superior land in the south. Basically hoping that quality over quantity wins out in the end. We were able to pile enough military into SM's land that we prevented him from attacking, so it's sort of a big stalemate right now.

Also, you're history is missing a few details (understandable!) so things will make more sense if I clarify. First, at the time of the 3v1, Timmy was the dominant force in the game. He was absolutely off the charts in the demos, and Bob and I had a very tiny window if we were going to slow him down, because while he was behind in tech for awhile (due to heavy expansion), all his cottages on his extremely fertile land was starting to catch him up, and it would not be long before he blew us all away. I had Maces + Xbows and Bob had Praetorians, and we had a very small window for them to be useful. SM was never a huge part of it, he just piled on to try to take one city (which he was unable to hold). Another factor was the fact that all 3 of us felt we were unfairly encroached upon - the NE citiy in particular violated a border agreement with both me and SM.

The point I'm making is that Sandover was in 2nd place at the time, and even when the war was over he didn't have a huge lead necessarily. Sandover was pretty close to Timmy overall, but Timmy's land was far superior to Sandover's. The turning point was when TT badly messed up the first war with him, giving Sandover a free city more or less... Then all of us came to his rescue by defending him, and he decided to vassalize to Sandover, giving Sandover 3-4 free cities for absolutely nothing. THAT gave Sandover a huuuuge lead, and then TT ended up emptying out his capital and giving that to Sandover to so he could exit the game. The Timmy war definitely didn't throw things towards Sandover, although it certainly helped him out.

So that's what led to where we are now. We're just trying to keep Sandover from acquiring more land, while I (and presumably you) try to race him to space. Or that's what we've been doing leading up to this. SM would probably pursue culture given his large amount of religions/wonders, but I just don't think he can get there quick enough.

So hopefully that clears some things up. I still believe that if SleepingMoogle falls, then Sandover wins the game. I think he knows this too... Currently Sandover seems to be spreading Buddhism to his cities to try to take control of the apostolic palace (SM controls it), so SM is going to try to get me Buddhism so I can spread it and counter-act this. It's likely he just wants to prevent us from being able to stop the war on SM, but I think it's possible he's trying to vote himself into a diplo win, which given his massive population advantage would be theoretically possible.

Any other questions or things that don't make sense?

scooter

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Chat with scooter:

Offline

me: What's up?

scooter: hey there
hows it going?

me: Not too much. Wife's out of town and its Sunday, so I actually have some free time.

scooter: nice!
i'm guessing you got my message?

me: Yeah, just read it.
Was going to send a "Message received."

scooter: any thoughts? does that make sense now about the sandover thing or no?

me: It certainly provides some background information that I am lacking.
Let me essentially say to you what I said to SleepingMoogle.
I have intents of throwing this game to Sandover. I want it to be competitive.

scooter: guessing you meant "no intents" haha

me: But I was essentially under the impression that I was supposed to go attack Sandover. One thing Timmy left me with was a ton of units.
yeah, no intents, lol
And here is my issue with moving my troops out of my land.

scooter: hmmm, who gave you that impression? me? timmy?

me: More just guess work.
lol

scooter: got it

me: Cause those troops didn't appear to be headed for you guys.

scooter: i'm not convinced an invason of sandover is even possible... he's got a huge military and it's all pretty advanced technologically
those troops were headed towards the sandover/SM front, correct?

me: But without any NAPs in place with anybody, I have a hard time trusting that you or Rome wouldn't just come annex my land and become a real threat to Sandover then.

scooter: got it

scooter: i look at it this way - from my perspective at least... i'm obviously in no shape to invade you now... i'll be a few techs up, but i dont think it'd even be possible at this point... amelia is hard to predict, she sorta tore up everything bob did when she took over haha

me: And when i rate my chances of winning to be pretty low (and it isnt just me, but my DedLurker too), it is more based on empire size. I am down to 9-10 cities now. Eventually you will blow by my in tech.

scooter: i didn trealize you had that few... thought it was more like 13

me: Yeah, not at all.
When you said Timmy was taking land that we was rightfully others, he really didn't have anywhere else to go.

scooter: on the history - i might've been right, i might've been wrong at the time.. but this conversation we've had now is longer than my entire history with timmy, so lets just say he wasnt very talkative haha

me: Yeah, like I said, something like 35% of all the posts in the lurker thread have happened in the past 5 days

scooter: haha no kidding. its weird seeing his thread pop up on the recent posts lists
so how do you feel going forward? I'm happy to sign the NAP you suggested, and i completely understand your hesistance on a game long NAP

me: Well, I told you I am a straight shooter, and if you want to let everyone know what I am thinking, then it is your prerogative, but I've got to trust somebody, it seems you are my best option.
You are my neighbor, so either we war, or we work together, not much other options. But we are close enough together in tech that I don't think war will really benefit us much.
It would be a blood bath.

scooter: yeah it would be

me: But we both need to either slow Sandover down, or improve our own Civs to move forward. You seem to think that Sandover will be able to hold his current lands, so that is a rough spot for us.
I get the sense that you and Sleeping Moogle are close?

scooter: yes pretty close.. i was closest with bobchillingworth when he wa splaying rome, but amelia took over, signed some mysterious deal with sandover, and that was that
sandover has much more land, but the one thing we have going for us is that this map is horribly unbalanced
the north up there is putridly bad land...

me: Yeah, Sandover and I have engaged in some diplomacy. He is beginning to relax his literally unbreakable choke on one of my cities, and we've exchanged some convo.

scooter: he has a choke on one of your cities?
thats total news to me lool

me: Yeah, it was really bad.

scooter: again, timmy wasnt very chatty
like... by ocean? or what?

me: Due to a mountain range, it is literally unbreakable.
He is choking a sugar tile, 3 grassland cottages I think, and the ocean tiles.

scooter: ouch
i had no idea... i have no port cities though so i'll never be a factor on the water
i don tknow if you've noticed, but there's some pretty weird oddities with the map editing... some "coastal" tiles are actually ocean

me: Yeah, it is definitely strange. Cuts off trade routes over the sea and such.

scooter: yup
i guess my plans for the rest of the game was to do my best to outtech sandover to space. i still feel this is doable for me... i'm about to finish statue of liberty (next turn) which will help

me: So personally, my Civ could definitely benefit from a detente with Sandover.

scooter: and sandovers best chance to beat that is to invade sleepingmoogle... that would let him get to me and/or let him get enough land to push him over the top
right... well everyone else is at peace with him but you

me: I didn't catch it. Did you say you are close diplomatically with Moogle, or was it really just Bob?

scooter: it was almost entirely Bob... but i would say i'm close with SM now, mostly because he was the last one left that I trusted and vice versa
SM and i have had good relations all game... had a good border split deal going and such
so yes, short answer: i am close diplomatically with him

me: So you propose that we essentially fortify the SM border with Sandover?

scooter: kind of. more like be ready to defend it if necessary...i have a small (but growing) stack of rifles at the extreme NW of my border. if sandover is about to declare, those will move into SM's land immediately

me: Again, reckless honesty (but what do I have to lose), almost all my troops are 2-movers. So I really don't have the best defensive army.

scooter: that was the situation when you joined. we thought for sure a declaration was coming recently so we were all set for it, and i think sandover realized we were all set for it and he backed off
right i know... i was defending rome with timmy way back - timmy had a stack of 50ish knights

scooter: SM has tons of cats (pretty much all he was building for awhile)... we were expecting mostly cuirassers from sandover, so the plan was for him to drill him with cats, and then clean up with knights (i had a bunch too but i gifted them to SM due to difficulty with the turn order)
but yeah, i know most of your army is knights... i've seen them many times in the last 20-30 turns

me: Well, assuming that we have an NAP and I can get one with Moogle too, I don't have any problems emptying much of my eastern army towards the Moogle front (although I do have to worry about a sea invasion from Sandover)

scooter: FWIW, sandover shouldnt have TOO many galleons... he hasnt had astronomy for that long
with only a couple port cities too


me: Sandover won't agree to a white peace. He is looking for some concessions, which I am not sure I am willing to make, to "improve" our diplomatic relations. But I might have to make some sort of agreement with Sandover for peace just to move my own Civ forward, so long as I don't tie my hands if Moogle gets attacked (I guess I could always gift troops)

scooter: right, sandover has refused to sign a white peace with anyone all game... thats part of how he managed to annoy everyone by flippantly declaring, then demanding concessions... its worked out ok for him though
i guess that'd be my one concern though - is making sure your hands arent tied if moogle gets invaded
like you mentoined

me: I mean, I would be willing to gift troops if it meant stopping the game's premature ending

scooter: if it's just me defending moogle, things could get dicey
because his army IS pretty huge
okay

me: I feel like it might be easier to coordinate if I just gave my troops to one of you guys in a war situation, but then again, due to the turn order, it could give you a tactical advantage. I really don't know. This is all new to me.

scooter: i really dont know either what would be best... its hard to tell
me: And in singleplayer, I am rarely utilizing an army of more then 20-30 troops, and never trying to crunch numbers against 100-200 troops
scooter: right.. i'm pretty inexperienced with this kind of thing too

me: I am of the peaceful builder type.
I literally have one Dom win, and no conquest wins, in my single player history.

scooter: that sounds awfully similar to mine hahaha
me: I don't really enjoy the war aspects to the game. It just takes me too long to play the turns.

scooter: i tend to quit once its a foregone conclusion... in SP you know when you've won... the AI doesnt specialize in come-from-behind wins

me: No, agreed.


me: So here is how I see it.
I don't want Sandover to become unbeatable.
But I also need to improve my own Civ at least somewhat to be able to be semi-competitive in the modern era.

scooter: right

me: Sorry, I am also on Xbox Live right now, so I am trying to do too much at once.

scooter: no problem... i need to go soon anyways


me: Well this was definitely informative. Maybe I gave you too much of window into my thoughts, but if I did, I can live with that. I am semi-curious about what you would do in my position? (Hint: your chance to lie to me).

scooter: hah. honestly thats whats been hard by email, is i really dont know what i'd do if i was you


scooter: i mean you could stick with defending SM, but thats not really a winning move. you could try to invade amelia to get more land that way, but that could result in sandover steamrolling moogle and winning. theres not really a single best option

me: Yeah, option one, I probably survive to the end, but definitely cannot win.
The other way, I might get steamrolled by Sandover after I steamroll Amelia, and then the gave is over for everyone.
It is a really strange balance.

scooter: yup...

me: Well, I will say this. I will do my best not to bullshit you. Whatever I decide, I will let you know. And I do hope our Civs can work together. I don't see any other benefit to open hostilities between our Civs.

scooter: sounds good... we can keep in touch
i've gotta get going now

me: later

[Shoot the Moon]

Nice chat with scooter. Just to throw it out there, but if you want to be able to diplomatically sell a war with Amelia, you could always point out that if we border Sandover, we could help out any attack on SM by attacking the other side of Sandover's empire. In essence, we could either provide troops in SM's land, or we could force Sandover to keep an equivalent number of troops on our border with him to prevent us attacking, which either way helps SM out pretty much equally.

In regards to a GM trade mission: A golden age is going to produce vastly more gold than a trade mission even just running one or two turns of 0% research, and on top of that will give more hammers and beakers. I haven't crunched the numbers or anything (and if you are considering a trade mission I would seriously suggest you do crunch them before doing anything) but I strongly suspect that a GA will vastly out produce anything else we can do with great people with the number of cottages our civ has.

As a heads up, I have finals the week after next, so these next two weeks are quite busy for me. I'll try to check in when I can, but figured I should give you a heads up.

[Gaspar]

Interesting to see this much of Khmer's thoughts at any point in this game.

I'm far too spoiled at this point to comment at all, but just wanted you know I'm enjoying reading your figuring this stuff out. Not often one walks into a game at this stage. So, good luck!

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Music in this turn. Onto 3-turn Military Tradition at 60% research for -112gpt.

So StM, or anyone unspoiled, I have no multiplayer experience. So I need some advice on if I am in any position to make enough gains against Rome to make it worth my time? And also on how best to stage and then conduct the assault.

Here is the current power graph:



Obviously, I am quite strong, and Rome is very, very weak. So weak I almost wonder if the "mysterious" relationship between Sandover and Rome isn't some sort of quasi-defensive pact.

Here is the stack I have assembled. I probably have 10 more odd Knights, 10 Rifles nearby, and 5 or so more Cats in-bound.



Here is the entire west as I know it:



Here is what is likely to become the western front, with the three cities I would most like to absorb, Overwatch Nexus, Ravenholm, and Victory Mines:



Here is the city I figure I am best to to start out attacking:



That city is very lightly defended. Something like six units total, 3 of which are Cats.

A few questions for StM:

What tile can I stage on unseen?

Can I hit that city in 1-turn, or will Rome see my stack advancing?

Should I wait and upgrade to Cavalry as many as possible (and attack 5-6 turns from now), or upgrade as many as possible to Curaissers and go now? I think Rome still lacks Rifles, maybe even Gunpowder.

Whenever a decision is made, I will deal with the diplomatic fallout.

[Tatan]

What tile can I stage on unseen?

Visibility from one's cultural borders is determined as if there was a unit on every tile. So Amelia could see any tiles within one tile of a flatland within her borders, any tiles within two tiles of a hill within her borders, and any tiles within three tiles of a mountain within her borders. Unless, of course, a hill/forest/mountain is blocking her view.

[Kylearan]

In addition to what Tatan said, here's a picture Speaker has made showcasing different examples for line of sight:

[Gold Ergo Sum]

OK, so it seems to me the tile I am on, and the city itself are the only tiles that I can reasonable stage on to hit Overwatch.

Does anyone have any articles regarding movement costs? I don't really know how cultural borders effect that, nor where I am allowed to build roads. Striking quickly was never that important in single player.

[T-hawk]

and any tiles within three tiles of a mountain within her borders.

Mountains don't see three tiles away. They see two tiles, just like a hill, except that an intervening hill or forest does not block the view from a peak. (Another peak does block it.)

Does anyone have any articles regarding movement costs? I don't really know how cultural borders effect that, nor where I am allowed to build roads. Striking quickly was never that important in single player.

I don't think there are any articles because it's too simple to need any. Flatland costs 1 movement point, hills or forests 2, hill+forest 3. If there is a road connection between squares, it costs 1/2 movement point, or 1/3 if you know Engineering. You can build roads on any square except water and peaks. Your units can use roads except within enemy territory (the exception includes moving from outside to inside enemy territory.)

[Square Leg]

All squares in your enemies lands count as normal terrain movement cost, unless you have the commando promotion, but the trick to striking quickly is to use your roads inside your borders to get into their land without them seeing until it is too late.

Basically, with engineering a 2 mover can move 2 squares in your territory on a road and still have 1.x movement. It can then move 2 (flat land) squares into foreign territory since the .x is always rounded up. If a unit has any movement points left, it can enter a tile even if that tile requires move movement points normally.

The rest is up to you of course.