[Spoiler Thread] SilentConfusion's Confusing Thread

[SilentConfusion]

Silence is a text easy to misread. --A.A. Attanasio

Nothing is more useful than silence. --Menander of Athens

Silence is the mother of truth. --Benjamin Disraeli

Silence is the true friend that never betrays. --Confucius

Silence is a source of great strength. --Lao Tzu

In the attitude of silence the soul finds the path in a clearer light, and what is elusive and deceptive resolves itself into crystal clearness. --Mahatma Gandhi

,--o--'

Confusion heard his voice, and wild uproar
Stood ruled, stood vast infinitude confined;
Till at his second bidding darkness fled,
Light shone, and order from disorder sprung. --John Milton

Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not yet understood. --Henry Miller

History and experience tell us that moral progress comes not in comfortable and complacent times, but out of trial and confusion. --Gerald R. Ford

I had nothing to offer anybody except my own confusion. --Jack Kerouac

I used to go away for weeks in a state of confusion. --Albert Einstein

,--o--'

And our final quotation for this post to sum it all up:

[SIZE="4"]In the confusion we stay with each other, happy to be together, speaking without uttering a single word. --Walt Whitman[/SIZE]

If you're still reading this hopefully you are not one of my opponents in this game. If you are, take the wisdom and leave.

[SilentConfusion]

Hopefully I can absorb all of that wisdom and any other stray bits floating around and wield it victoriously in this, the 8th Play By E-Mail game hosted on Realms Beyond.

Lurkers are very welcome in this thread. I will try not to make any mistakes at all in this game, but it may happen and I will try to document my game well enough so that myself and others may see my mistakes and learn from them. For those of you that remain unspoiled feel free to point out my mistakes after I make them. I would ask that you let me make the mistake before you point it out to me. All of my mistakes should be expressed in my game, and hopefully they will be few enough that I am able to defeat my opponents. I encourage all lurkers to comment on my play in the lurker thread, if they are too spoiled or spoilerish to go in here, so that I may read them after the game.

Play By E-Mail 8 Settings and Players*:

Players:
Cjreynol
meatbalz
Shoot the Moon
SilentConfusion
WarriorKnight

Settings:
No Tech Trading
Events Off
Huts (probably) Off
Only passive espionage (i.e. no spies)
Unrestricted leaders
Snake-draft allowing no duplicates
No Diplomatic Contact until in-game meeting
Map trading is not restricted.
Quick game speed
Difficulty unknown
Barb level unknown
Map type is map-maker's choice

*Some settings are still being decided. Will update this when all are known.


Leader/Civ Snake-Draft Pick Order

1. SilentConfusion
2. meatbalz
3. Cjreynol
4. Shoot the Moon
5. WarriorKnight
6. WarriorKnight
7. Shoot the Moon
8. Cjreynol
9. meatbalz
10. SilentConfusion

Therefore I get first and last pick.

[SilentConfusion]

Ok. Since I'm on the clock with the first pick I have to think about what Leader or Civilization I want to pick with the first pick and consider what's likely to be left for my second pick.

I have the very first pick so I can have any Leader or Civ that I want. I've been looking at different Civilizations and Leaders in more depth trying to figure out who I want most, understanding that there will be 8 picks between my first and second pick.

Civilizations:

There are 34 Civilizations in Civ IV - Beyond the Sword. Civilizations come with a Unique Unit, a Unique Building, and a set of starting techs. These are the only things to consider when selecting a Civilization.

My thoughts about UUs:

-The UUs of the Dutch and the Portuguese may be very handy, but could also be rendered totally useless on certain maps (Great Plains comes to mind).
-I think that building War Elephants may be banned in this game (not real clear why, but I don't really care). This means that the Khmer Civ has no UU.
-The Fast Worker is most valuable on Quick speed, which we are using. It saves a larger percentage of game turns when it enters hills or forests and starts improving.
-Early UUs are nice to have for the threat of Rushing an opponent. Even the threat can be enough to make sure you're left alone in the early game. In fact I think if an early rush is desired it is preferable to have a Civ without an early UU for the surprise factor. Civs with the best early UUs in my opinion include: Egypt, Inca, Mali, Persia, Zulu.
-The Quecha is quite good in higher level SP because AI have archers out early, but in MP the player is perhaps more likely to have Axes before Archers. and are therefore less useful.
-2 move early UUs are very nice as speed is the most valuable thing in rushing an opponent.
-The Horse Archer UUs can be early rush units, but require a significant investment in Horseback Riding early. Of these my favorite is the Keshik with its mobility.
-I think a Renaissance UU like Cataphracts or Janissaries may be coming just at the right time to engage in a war of expansion.

My thoughts about UBs:

-I'm not so familiar with the UBs of all civilizations so some heavier research was needed.
-Health UBs include: Apothecary, Garden.
-Happiness UBs include: Ball Court, Hammam, Hippodrome, Mausoleum, Odeon.
-Other UBs that I like or that intrigue me: Terrace, Sacrificial Altar.
-The Terrace saves hammers by allowing a monument to be skipped. This is obviously not as valuable if we end up with a Creative leader.
-I haven't really tried the Sacrificial Altar of the Aztecs yet, but I do like to whip a lot and this figures to make food to hammer conversion even more attractive. The Sac Altar is also cheaper than normal courthouses. Not sure what the half-time does on quick speed.

My thoughts on Starting Techs:

-In this game with no huts, Hunting as a starting tech isn't as valuable as it would be otherwise. Exploration is still valuable though. Hunting may want to be skipped in some cases if Archery is not needed.
-I like Agriculture as a starting tech. It's fairly expensive for a starting tech and it's almost always needed.
-Mining is also pretty good as it makes BW that much closer.
-The Wheel is also an expensive tech and needed for Pottery.
-Civs with Ag/Min: China
-Civs with Ag/Wheel: Sumeria, Ottomans, France, Egypt, Babylon
-Civs with Min/Wheel: Mali


Based on all of this I think the strongest Civs are:

India (Fast Worker is awesome, especially on Quick)
Ottomans (Decent UU and UB and good starting techs, well rounded)
Byzantines (Cataphracts are pretty strong in the Renaissance era)
Egypt (Nice early UU and great starting traits)
Mali (Versatile early UU and good starting techs)


Leaders

There are 52 leaders in BtS. I think that EXP, FIN, PHI, CRE, and SPI are the strongest traits for this game, with ORG being potentially useful depending on difficulty and world wrap options. SPI is especially good on Quick when every turn of anarchy saved is a larger percentage of total game turns. PHI and FIN are always nice in a no tech trading game as they aid research. CRE is good for free border pops which allows early hammers to be saved as well as added flexibility in city placement. EXP is a nice growth trait. Cheap Workers and Granaries are quite nice. ORG gives a lot of double bonuses to buildings and if maintenance will be high (depends on difficulty and world wrap and land available) it helps with maintenance costs.

Leaders with these combinations:

Willem van Oranje (FIN/CRE)
Hatshepsut (SPI/CRE)
Elizabeth (PHI/FIN)
Zara Yaqob (CRE/ORG)
Frederick (PHI/ORG)
Pericles (CRE/PHI)
Gandhi (SPI/PHI)
Asoka (ORG/SPI)
Suryavarman II (CRE/EXP)
Mansa Musa (FIN/SPI)
Pacal II (FIN/EXP)
Mehmed II (EXP/ORG)
Darius I (ORG/FIN)
Peter (EXP/PHI)
Isabella (EXP/SPI)

Above leaders with at least one of PHI or FIN:

Willem van Oranje (FIN/CRE)
Elizabeth (PHI/FIN)
Frederick (PHI/ORG)
Pericles (CRE/PHI)
Gandhi (SPI/PHI)
Mansa Musa (FIN/SPI)
Pacal II (FIN/EXP)
Darius I (ORG/FIN)
Peter (EXP/PHI)

I'm a big fan of growth, so I rate EXP and to a lesser extent IMP higher on my list.

Because of that I'd say my top choices would be:

Pacal II (FIN/EXP)
Peter (PHI/EXP)
Suryavarman II (EXP/CRE)
Elizabeth (FIN/PHI)
Willem van Oranje (FIN/CRE)


If I chose a Civ with my first pick, only 4 leaders will go before my second pick. That means I'd still be left with one of those good leaders left.

I am seriously considering picking India, even though it is the most obvious and boring pick. If I had a later pick and someone else picked India ahead of me, I'd be just fine with that, but I think passing on them may be a mistake. If I can pair it with an EXP leader I think the cheap Fast Workers would be very strong on Quick speed.

The best EXP leaders for this game in my opinion are:

Pacal II (FIN/EXP)
Peter (EXP/PHI)
Suryavarman II (CRE/EXP)
Isabella (EXP/SPI)
Mehmed II (EXP/ORG)

With only 4 leaders being selected before my second pick and with FIN/PHI, FIN/CRE and other good combos still out there, I think I could probably get one of the top three EXP leaders. I'd be extremely happy with any one of them and even if I have to take Isabella I think SPI may play very well on Quick speed.

Well I'll wait for a little while to see if we can get an answer on the last of the game settings, but my tentative first pick is

[SilentConfusion]

Ok. I did it. I picked the Indian Civilizations. People in their threads will be calling it a solid or obvious pick, and I won't earn any confused opponents with this pick, which is a pity, but I think it makes sense.

So this means:

Fast Worker

Strength: 0
Movement: 3
Cost: 60h
Requirements: None
Abilities: Can improve tiles
Differences from Worker: +1 Movement


Mausoleum

Cost: 120h
Requirements: Constitution
Abilities: +4EP, +50% EP, +2, -25% War Weariness, Can turn 2 citizens into Spies
Differences from Jail: +2

Starting Techs
Mysticism:

Cost: 50 base beakers
Abilities: Allows Monument and Stonehenge
Leads to: Masonry, Meditation, Polytheism

Mining:

Cost: 50 base beakers
Abilities: Can build mines
Leads to: Masonry, Bronze Working


Pick Number 2:

meatbalz selects Mr Pacal II who is FIN/EXP. In my opinion a very solid leader and would have been my first leader choice. FIN gives commerce. EXP gives bonus on hammers towards workers and gives double speed Granaries and Harbors. EXP also gives +2:health:

FIN or PHI makes a lot of sense in a No Tech Trading game and probably most likely most of the players will end up with one trait or the other (potentially both with Elizabeth). I think PHI is probably just as strong as FIN, but FIN is a lot simpler to use. You don't have to do much; just throw some cottages down and enjoy the extra commerce. PHI requires more skill to wield properly and I'll be the first to admit that that is one of my weaknesses. I think FIN/CRE, PHI/EXP, FIN/PHI, and CRE/EXP are probably the best all-around trait combos still out there. With only 3 other players still to pick leaders at least one of those will still be there and I might consider matching a different EXP leader with India if both PHI/EXP and CRE/EXP are taken.


Pick Number 3:

Cjreynol selects the Mali Civilization. They boast the Skirmisher, the Mint, and start with Mining and The Wheel.

The Starting traits are very solid. The Mint is an alright building with +25% gold to a Forge, but usually cities that need Forges don't bring in lots of commerce. The Skirmisher is probably the real reason to pick Mali. It's a 4 Strength Archer with an extra first strike chance. They're available early and excellent at choking a neighbor. You don't want to let these guys plant themselves on your forested hills. They're plenty strong on defense too, making an early rush against Mali defended by Skirmishers likely to fail.


Pick Number 4:

Shoot the Moon picks Willem van Oranje who is FIN/CRE.

Cjreynol responeded to this pick with disappointment saying that he knew he should have picked his leader first. In this case he probably would have gotten Mali on the return trip. Not sure that Mali really synergizes with FIN/CRE, but Willem's obviously a good leader. In this situation I would have picked Willem before I picked Mali, but we'll see how it goes. I think players with a little less experience rate FIN above PHI just because it's easier to use. CRE gives him free border pops and double speed Theaters, Libraries and Colosseums. FIN is straight forwards and increases commerce.

Picks Number 5 and 6:

WarriorKnight picks Peter (PHI/EXP) of the Incans. The Incans have the Quecha, the Terrace, and start with Agriculture and Mysticism.

Peter of the Incans is a very nice pick. He took long enough picking it, but I think he came up with a winner. EXP synergizes with Inca's very good UB and PHI can be a good economic trait if wielded properly. This pick feels like a veteran move. Ag and Myst allows early religion, but he won't need the border pops and he might want an early pottery instead.

At this point, WarriorKnight has picked both a Civ and a Leader and out of the three people picking before me only one also needs a Leader and that was Cjreynol. Cjreynol was sorry that Willem (FIN/CRE) got picked out from under him.

I think the best leaders left at this point are:

Expansive Leaders:
Suryavarman II (EXP/CRE)
Bismark (EXP/IND)
Washington (EXP/CHA)
Isabella (EXP/SPI)
Joao II (EXP/IMP)
Mehmed II (EXP/ORG)

Non-Expansive Leaders:
Elizabeth (FIN/PHI)
Pericles (PHI/CRE)

Not sure what leader I want yet. Cjreynol could go with an IND leader like HC (FIN/IND) to synergize with UB. He could try for PRO Skirmishers, but I really don't see that happening. I think he picks Lizzy (FIN/PHI), Sury (EXP/CRE), or HC (FIN/IND). I think I would take Sury if Cjreynol does not. If he does take Sury, what I will pick is a lot less certain. Do I go with 2 economic traits with Lizzy, although I don't think that FIN and PHI go that well together? Do I go Bismark for IND? Maybe less likely if Cj picks a IND leader. I could go for Izzy for SPI which is better on Quick. I could also do something strange to confuse my opponents. I would really like to do that. I could go Shaka (EXP/AGG) or Mao (EXP/PRO). They would have to wonder why I picked those traits and why I paired those traits. They'll never know if I intend to war or not. Keeping them guessing is worth something; the question is how much. I could go Washington. I actually like CHA and it's a very flexible trait. We'll have to see if Cj pick Sury. He's not FIN or PHI, so maybe he'll want an economic trait and I can snag him.

Pick 7:

Shoot the Moon selects Byzantium to go with Willem.

More thoughts forthcoming.

Pick 8:

Cjreynol selects Victoria who is (FIN/IMP) to go with Mali.

I did not expect this pick at all, but I guess the desire for FIN was just strong enough to cause Cj to take this pick here. It's a combination of an economic trait and an expansion trait so I'd say she's a well balanced leader. I think the people at RB realize the strength of the EXP trait, whereas I've seen others say that IMP is a better expansion trait. I definitely think EXP is a better trait than IMP, but both EXP/FIN and EXP/PHI had already been taken. IMP gives +50% bonus to hammers on Settler builds and gives 100% Great General emergence. Neither IMP nor FIN give any hammer bonuses to buildings, so cities may be infrastructure weak or just have less hammers for other things like units.

Hmmm... I guess they wanted FIN enough to leave me Sury. I think it's an easy choice for me. I won't have an economic trait, but I think I can make do with Sury of India.

Pick 10:

SilentConfusion selects Suryavarman II (EXP/CRE) to go with India. Will talk more about the combo in the next post.


Pick 9:

meatbalz has selected the Ottoman Empire to go with Pacal II. The Ottomans have the Janissary, the Hammam, and start with Agriculture and the Wheel. I think that meatbalz ended up with a top flight leader and a top notch Civilization. This combo may not work together especially well, but each brings good things to the table and this should end up being one of the stronger pairings.

More comments forthcoming in a future post.

[SilentConfusion]

Suryavarman II of India.

of

What a handsome face!

EXPansive

• +2 health per city
  
• +25% bonus on hammers towards Worker builds
  
• +100% bonus on hammers towards Granary and Harbor builds
  

CREative

• +2 culture per city
  
• +100% bonus on hammers towards Theater, Library, and Colosseum builds
  

Unique Unit
Fast Worker:
Replaces Worker
0 Strength
3 Movement
40 hammers (Quick)
Can improve tiles

Unique Building
Mausoleum:
Replaces Jail
Requires Constitution
80 hammers (Quick)
+4 EP
+50% EP
+2 happy
-25% War Weariness
Can turn 2 citizens into Spies

Starting Techs
Mysticism:
Can build Monuments and Stonehenge
Leads to Masonry, Meditation, Polytheism

Mining:
Can build mines
Leads to Masonry, Bronze Working

Thoughts:
Although Suryavarman II is unquestionably the weirdest looking Leader in the game and his name is the hardest to spell, his traits, EXP and CRE, are quite good. EXP has an obvious (and overused) synergy with India's Fast Worker. Fast Workers can move onto a flat forest or an unforested hill and start improving right away. These saved turns are even more valuable on Quick speed. EXP and CRE combine to give double speed Granaries, Harbors, Libraries, Theaters, and Colosseums. The Granaries and Libraries are especially nice. The Granaries and Harbors give health. The Mausoleum is kind of late, but it gives happy. The starting techs are Mysticism and Mining. Bronze Working is only a tech away, but we will need some food techs (Ag, AH) early. As CRE won't want Stonehenge. There are no IND leaders so wonders are possible with Fast Workers to chop quicker. I'm thinking that an early expansion fueled by cheap Fast Workers and cheap Granaries might be the way to go. The starting location and the actions of the others may change this though.

[pocketbeetle]

Good luck SC!

It's going to be tough against all those leaders without FIN/PHI yourself, but you've got the civ to do it.

Micro micro and more micro.

[dazedroyalty]

You can do it!

[SilentConfusion]

OK, this would have been the obligatory post in which I list what I know about my components and size up the competition, except that I don't really know anything about any of my opponents.

I can, however, analyze their actions.

I should analyze myself as well, as my opponents will be. So, here goes that.

SilentConfusion

Suryavarman II (EXP/CRE) and India (Fast Worker, Mausoleum, Mining, Mysticism)

My pick of India and Sury will probably seen as a strong, unexciting choice. It may be noted that I didn't choose an "economic" trait FIN or PHI. I don't have a lot of posts on these forums, but some may have seen my answers to Serdoa's questions about Score and Demographics, so they may suspect that I will be doing some of that. This can possibly be used to my advantage. If they think I am very good at Demographics and know whats going on, I may be able to bluff a little bit and have them give me the benefit of the doubt. That remains to be seen however.

meatbalz

Pacal II (FIN/EXP) and Ottomans (Janissary, Hammam, Agriculture, Wheel)

These are very solid picks, although with only 5 players most players are going to get a good combo. Ottomans can be fierce when they get to Gun Powder, although on Quick speed they may obsolete a little sooner than on Normal. Still I will fear a drafted army of these when their era comes. If this civ is next to me I'll be looking for an opportunity to set them back.

Cjreynol

Victoria (FIN/IMP) and Mali (Skirmisher, Mint, Mining, Wheel)

This was the selection that confused me the most. Vicky is FIN, but not so sure of this pick and Mali is alright, but I wouldn't have picked it here. His picks strike me as the picks of an inexperienced player. We'll see how he uses them. There is value in being underestimated, so will have to keep watch and make sure that he's not just laying low with that pick. I'll be watching out for a Skirmisher choke early. If next to this civ, I'll have spend more hammers on troops to keep Skirmishers out of my land.

Shoot the Moon

Willem van Oranje (FIN/CRE) and Byzantium (Cataphract, Hippodrome, Wheel, Mysticism)

This is a very respectable combination. FIN is self-explanatory and Byzantines are a strong Civilization with the feared Cataphracts. CRE is a nice trait anyway but it also makes their UB half-priced which adds happy. I think this is my favorite combination out of all of the ones that my opponents selected. I will be wary if need be of his Cataphracts, which have a pretty long window of effectiveness. If these guys can be hit earlier and caused to struggle, I'll be looking at that option.

WarriorKnight

Peter (EXP/PHI) and Inca (Quecha, Terrace, Agriculture, Mysticism)

I think this combo is a very solid one and speaks of experience. PHI is a little harder to use than FIN, but Peter goes very well with Inca. Half-cost Terraces are quite strong and with Ag and Myst an early religion is likely. PHI will help get a Great Prophet for a shrine faster, which can take a bit of time normally. Quecha aren't going to take anyone out in MP unless they are careless. Warriors in cities are enough to defend against Quechas. They are great against high level AI because they usually use Archers to guard cities. They are decent anti-barb units though. The half-speed Terraces are very strong all game long. This civ is strong all game, just like India. This is a civ I'd prefer to befriend rather than attack.


Overall Preliminary Opponent Strategy:

Befriend WarriorKnight and build a long peace.
If I see an opportunity to slow Shoot the Moon or meatbalz progress that won't set me back too much I will want to take it.
Try not to underestimate Cjreynol and generally leave him alone, but if I see a large opportunity here, I may consider taking it. Otherwise friendly relationships should be the norm here.

Diplomatic Philosophy:

I prefer a completely open and honest style of diplomacy that features a lot of communication back and forth. Opponents will be less hesitant to plot war against a person they haven't talked to much. Seek information and offer anything that has value to my opponents even if small.

Demographic Analysis:

I will be doing quite a bit of this in the beginning. I am quite proficient in this, although I prefer to do as little as needed to maximize efficiency. Especially early and with opponents that are near me I may do more than I need to just to be safe.

[SilentConfusion]

Good luck SC!

It's going to be tough against all those leaders without FIN/PHI yourself, but you've got the civ to do it.

Micro micro and more micro.

I will try to wield my micro-skills with all the furiousness that I can muster.

You can do it!

Thanks for the vote of support. I hope you're right.

[SilentConfusion]

Looks right to me.

We'll see if I can keep up with these FIN and PHI leaders. Picking India, kind of pushed me into picking an EXP leader even though EXP/FIN and EXP/PHI were already taken. Not sure I made the right pick, but I'll do my best.

Looking forward to this map you've made us Tatan.

Posted that to hopefully earn a bit of underestimation. Probably won't work, but don't think it hurts to look a little unsure of my pick. Hopefully I can use the fact that I'm not FIN or PHI either to have people think I'm an easy target or not a threat depending on the situation.

That'll probably be enough posting until we can see the starts.