[Spoilers] Fintourist and Old Harry have nothing to see here

[TheHumanHydra]

It looks like about a dozen full-strength knights are necessary to flank away all the cats in his present stack. Note if he promotes more of his axemen so they defend first (there are only four Combat I at present) or adds more units we need more. IMPORTANT: last you saw his stack, was there a blue glow? 'Cause it doesn't look like it from the screenshot and if so that's significant, because then we know he can't promote. So the plan might actually be feasible, IF our knights can heal to near-full in one turn and preferably if they're covered by the rest of our army, which I believe was the idea anyway. I will now test the healing.

Edit: Sigh, so testing again I realized I did the initial attack wrong - if I attack with just the 12 knights (plus mace) we'll actually have (not the 15 we'll have the turn after), he almost always keeps the city. So we need to wait a turn in any case. Going to test healing now under that assumption ...

Edit again: It looks like the knights can be mostly healed in one turn with Medic I + city. Taken all together, my recommendation, then, is to wait one turn to attack, so that we can verify the position of his stack and ensure we have enough knights to do the job. If his defences change at all, or his stack is closer than before, we will absolutely need to re-evaluate and re-sim. There will be survivors from his stack, so it will be necessary to either cover our knights in the city or finish the job with said covering units. So we need to make sure our foot units are in position, and be aware that they will be out of position should mack choose to attack once peace expires. Finally, I need to note that the sim was done without accounting for fortify bonuses amongst his defending units, and with assigning Combat II - not Flanking II - to all knights; the tradeoff is a 1/5 withdrawal chance against a 10% augmentation in attacking odds on the initial attacks (~22% to ~32%). Not sure which is better; statistically I suppose we should save one knight with Flanking II on the first-wave knights, but I'm not sure if the damage difference given the 10% decrease in odds is substantial. Anyway, as I said, I recommending waiting one turn to attack, else at its most basic we probably won't take the city - but if we can, and his stack is still where it was when we do, we should be able to annihilate it in the field as planned.

And then we'll have to face mackoti.

[Old Harry]

Thanks THH. I ran a similar test a couple of turns ago, but used withdrawal promos, to try to keep more knights alive. It came out similar to your setup. Can you post your sandbox? I'll dig mine out in a bit.

I think we can attack with 14 knights and the mace this turn. Does that help?

[Old Harry]

Sandboxes for
the cat stack
the Madrid attack (with one less longbow)

Although you probably need the mod installed to try them

Looking back we should have taken engineering before Economics - we could have got our cat stack into place this coming turn to take the culture down 25% next turn...

Are you around at all this evening 1800-2400 GMT?

[TheHumanHydra]

Oh, I do vaguely remember you posting sims before now - now I feel a little silly. Anyway, yeah, I can't open those sandboxes. Here's mine (open it as a hotseat so you can control both players):

Battles of Madrid

How are we able to attack with 14 knights this turn though? Oh, wait - I see I read your screenshot wrong; we do have 14 plus reinforcements. How did I manage to do that? Anyway, yes, I will make myself available on Google Hangouts from 1800-2400 GMT today. We could even try out screensharing so I can see what you're doing like we did with that weekend game.

[TheHumanHydra]

(I have gmail open so ring me up whenever.)

[TheHumanHydra]

Update for lurkers: we have been doing some chatting and simming. I realized there was [i]yet another problem[i] with my sim in that our knights won't be able to move into the city right after taking it, so won't get the city bonus for their supposed one turn of healing, meaning they can't overcome suttree's stack. We contemplated razing the city and settling a new one on the tile the knights will be on, but we don't have enough population to dry-whip a settler this turn, or building a fort, but the tile won't be in our culture.* So we're still pondering what to do.

* Although this does make me think, Harry - do we still have that Great Artist we unfortunately rolled kicking around?

Edit: Also apparently Old Harry is a sado-masochist because he said it would be enjoyable if mack attacked us.

[TheHumanHydra]

Ready any time, Harry.

[TheHumanHydra]

Old Harry and I just concluded an hour-and-a-half war-planning session in which we came up with what we think is a very interesting avenue of attack. I'll let Old Harry show you the specifics since he has the screenshots, but first I thought I'd present you with the chat transcript for those who are interested. The bit of background you need to know is that based off of extensive simming, we had determined that whoever hit the other with their stack first would win, by either flanking or collateral (duh). We had wanted to take Madrid, suttree's northwestern border-city, with our knights then use them to catch suttree's stack in the open as it advanced to counterattack, but had realized the timings just weren't going to work out for us. That's where this session began ...

[Statements in brackets are of course editorial]

OH
Start with plako

THH
?

OH
Now this is a proper attack..
Can you see the pic?

THH
Not sure, what is it of?

OH
Should be plako's stack that just took Aiur off Dhal...
I'm jealous.
Once he has all that land he'll be Mackoti's top competitor
I imagine

[....]

Pindicooter and dtay third and fourth

THH
I told you plako would be a contender, whatever his land quality.

OH
new pic [showing suttree's stack 1SE of Madrid, where we wanted to attack]

THH
Um, that looks like a no-go.

OH
Totally

THH
Well that answers that question.

OH
But it means Barca [Barcelona, suttree's southern border-city] should be unguarded?

THH
Yeah, we might be able to execute the plan in reverse down there.
I guess we start moving everything south.
What I wouldn't give for a tactical nuke.

OH
new pic

THH
Do we have any knights building?

OH
We have a small [axe-and-bow] stack that can approach Barca
and more knights coming all the time

THH
Also, do we still have that Great Artist we didn't want earlier?
I don't think we want to approach Barca and show our hand yet.

OH
We do, I think we want him for a golden age...
True
Engineering would have made this so much easier

THH
Just 'cause, had suttree's stack still been where it was two turns ago [in the south], I realized we could have used [the Artist] to get our knights into our culture [after exhausting their movement attacking Madrid] & be able to build a fort [in lieu of the city healing-bonus, OH's idea, resolving our timing issue].
Mm, I don't think it's Engineering that's the problem, it's the position of his stack.

OH
By bombing Madrid?

THH
Yes.

OH
seven longbows now [in Madrid]
We're not taking it...

THH
The Great Artist stuff doesn't matter now, it was just another idea I had after our last conversation - ie. we could have gotten our one turn of healing anyhow.

OH
Interesting.

THH
Maybe we could keep the Great Artist nearby in case we need to use it at Barca.

OH
I had a slightly gamey idea too
Last time we war-peaced with Suttree he just accepted it straight away
Perhaps he didn't look...
But with that many longbows in Madrid we aren't taking it.
bah.

THH
That'd be a big risk too.
But it is interesting.

OH
And a bit exploitative

THH
Yeah.
Anyway, so I guess we need to decide whether we want to restage to attack Barcelona or give him peace again and do something else.
You'll keep an eye on his stack with a spy, won't you?

OH
The spy is a distance from the stack
its SW of Barca
I like re-staging to hit Barca
Which tiles do you like?

THH
Yes, I think we should try for that too.

OH
with Engy we could be NW of the city from the fog with one movers

THH
How long would Engineering take if we switched to it now?

OH
three turns

THH
Hmm.

OH
We could run research to try to get it in two, but it's unlikely

THH
'Cause without it there's no tile we can stage on without giving away our position.

OH
If we move our troops to the Cow tile [in Barcelona's BFC] next turn the 2-movers can hit Barca
and then the 1-movers can reinforce once the road is built

THH
Thinking ...
We have the same problem with not having enough time to get ready for his stack.

OH
He's got 20 cats now

THH
Holy heck.

OH
We have 22 knights, but four of them are near france

THH
Although if we bomb the city, putting us in our culture and making him move through it ...
Once again, though, his stack has to stay right where it is now for that to work. [ie. to give us enough time to heal]

OH
I'd like to keep that artist for the next GA, but if it lets us kill the stack...
This turn we can move 17 knights to the jungle S of Quantril

THH
Actually, here's an idea that doesn't require the GA ...
What if we show all our foot units (ie. enough that he needs his stack) at Barca,
so he moves his stack toward it,
and our knights hit it while it's in transit,

OH
Oooh, I like it...

THH
Ie. from the banana tile or something.
Only problem is roading the border tile without him becoming suspicious.

OH
Put our knights on the jungle SE of the banana?
This turn?

THH
No, he can see that.
Wait, which banana do you mean?

OH
SW of the peak
Can he do anything about it?

THH
He can not fall into our trap ...
Actually, I'm not sure this will work.

OH
Another pic is in the box
I've labeled tiles [numerically] to make it easier

THH
It looks like he transits his stack on the diagonal immediately to the rear of the two cities, out of reach of our knights.

OH
Yep, via 2 and 3 on the screenie

THH
Wasn't he 1SW of Barca before? Ie. 2 and 3 should be 1S?

OH
Oh yeah, there must be roads on those tiles then
So if we move to tile 1 this turn
Then to 1N of Barcelona

THH
In either case, it'll be too deep in his territory to reach with knights.

OH
He'll move to 1S of 3 and we could hit the stack...

THH
He'd hit us instead of moving 1S of 3.

OH
I don't think he can get to us...

THH
No, nevermind.
Interesting ...

OH
Hang on - I need to re-do the numbers
New pic
So we can move 17 knights and two chariots to tile 1 this turn [on our border, midway between Madrid and Barcelona]

THH
Can we sim 20 cats & 15 [18] axes against 17 knights?

OH
We can also move our small stack of 6 axes, 4 bows towards Barca

THH
I can do it since you've got the actual game running.

OH
Sure, why not

THH
Hold that thought, I'll go set it up.

OH
We'll get great odds with the knights

THH
Oh I know, but in my previous sims he always had several units left, plus he'll have the Barcan garrison to counterattack with.
I just don't want to lose our stack too.

OH
Yet another pic
The small stack can go to 5 this turn, then 6 next [approaching Barcelona], pinning his garrison down.

THH
Just a sec - setting up sim.

OH
Sure I'll go check the rest of the economy...

THH
Um, this sim shows us annihilating his stack - like 1-2 units left.

OH
reallt?
wow!

THH
17 CII knights + 1 CI/Shock[/Morale] mace vs. 7 CI axes, 11 unpromoed axes, 20 unpromoed cats.
1-2 axes left in each case.
I almost feeling like I'm doing something wrong.

OH
That's amazing

THH
Are you able to double-check my results?

OH
What strength are the knights left with?

THH
All over the place.

OH
Can you drop the save somewhere?
And send the link?
email?

THH
Generally reasonably high though.
Just a sec.

OH
how many above 6?

THH
Nothing changed with knights or flanking in RB mod did it?

OH
nope

THH
K, sent it by email. This one's just a single-player.

OH
This is such a great plan, nice work!

THH
Well, you saved it from the trash-heap.
Thanks though.
To answer your quesiton ...
QUESITON!!
Um, 15 above 6 health in that last one. I'll do it again ...
Yeah, consistently 15, plus the mace.
7.4 is the most common number (strangely, the same health totals seem to recur ...). [I meant amongst the knights in the same iteration of the test; I did have 'new random seed' on!]

OH
It'll be something to do with the full health knights vs the full health axes

THH
Of course, if he happens to research Engineering [to move his stack in faster] in the next couple turns, we're screwed, but ...

OH
I'm going to try without promoting...
He doesn't have metal casting yet

THH
Oh, never mind then.
That's good.
How do you know?

OH
We got paper

THH
Oh and I just wanted to say in reference to something you said before ...
Oh right, duh.
... I don't think that small number of [foot] units will pin his defenders [in Barcelona].

OH
Your're right, but maybe it'll make him think twice before attacking out

THH
Especially since his units would attack out and still be in the city.
We'd need incredible luck to take the city even with his units all damaged.
But yeah, it might make him think twice. We'd just have to accept the fact we'd stand to lose several knights to a counteratttack with those spears.
Honestly, it's probably worth it to take out his stack though.

OH
If we can promo-heal our knights I think we'll be safe...

THH
Ah, excellent thought.

OH
Although not attacking with the mace could be good.

THH
Yes, that's a good idea.
What did your sim with unpromoted units come up with?

OH
Nearly there...

[....]

OH
we get 98% instead of 99
and kill all the cats again
Lost one knight

THH
Yeah, I just did it too - same result I think.

OH
four axes left

[....]

THH
Looks good to not promote then.

OH
got em all this time

THH
"Gotta catch 'em all!"

OH
heh

THH
Ok, so what do we do if he responds by attacking toward Hastings?
Never mind, our knights can get back in time to annihilate him there instead.

OH
We road the jungle tile # 1

THH
I think.

OH
so that the knights can get back

THH
I think they can in time anyway actually.

OH
if he roads NWW of Madrid

THH
But probably a good idea to road it anyway.

OH
He can move 47, then 77
I'll switch the worker on the hill to road instead of mine

THH
We'll see it coming in any case.

OH
Yep
Keep that sentry chariot up there I think...

THH
Um ...
Ok. [lol, that sounds really incredulous! Actually just meant I was thinking]

OH
Send the one down south with the knights?

THH
We can always give an unpromoted knight sentry if he tries to hide his stack and we need to know where it is.

OH
Or that...

THH
Might as well send the other chariot, though, yeah.
As for our foot units, I guess they should all start moving south along the roads?
Or should they stand by to attack Madrid?

OH
What do you think about the small stack [near Barcelona]?

THH
I think it should pin the defenders like you said.

OH
Jamestown [HE city] will keep pumping out knights, so we could move the cats next to Madrid once we've killed the cat stack

THH
What is the current position of the main body of our foot troops?

OH
Half is in Hastings [north, near Madrid]
Half Next to Konig [south, near Barcelona].
I'll get some numbers

THH
In Hastings, ok.

OH
6 cats and 7 axes in Hastings
7 cats now
6 axes and 4 bowmen 1E of Konig

THH
What do we do if he moves to 2 this turn but doesn't move next turn? [ie. stays out of range of our knights]

OH
We take Barcelona instead?

THH
We take the city, he moves to attack range, we can't attack effectively because we aren't healed. [The same problem we confronted at Madrid]

OH
We use the 1-movers to soften the city up?
If we can get rid of the longbows our axes should kill the spears...
*if*

THH
We still face the problem of being attacked by all that collateral before we're healed.
We have no cats down there?

OH
It'll be a good way to use up the crappy Bowmen
Nope
If we have four knights attack I think it'll allow the 1-movers to take the city
(at a guess)
that leaves 12 knights intact...

THH
I'm going to sim getting attacked.
Although I guess if [he hangs] back we can actually leave if we want, we just don't take the city.

OH
and if we take the city we can bring up reinforcements quickly...
True

THH
Should we move the Hastings units down then?
Could they reinforce the turn we take the city?

OH
Nope
one tile shor
t

THH
Actually it's the turn after we take the city they'd need to get there, but they're still a tile short ... unless we tech Engineering.

OH
But I bet we can get some more knights in there...

THH
Ok, let's sim getting attacked by that stack.

OH
where would it be?
We move to 1, he moves to 2, we move to 4, he stays still...

THH
It could move between 2 and 3 after we take the city, then attack us the next turn when we're still damaged.
*to the tile between 2 and 3

OH
We attack from 6 and 4, taking the city
he moves to between 2 and 3,
we have to attack with injured knights...

THH
Yeah, and that doesn't go well. [I had simmed it earlier]

OH
Okay, so what is the minimum no. of healthy knights we need to beat that stack?

THH
I don't know; I'm going to go test that. Just a minute.

OH
we can leave three or four cats alive...
thanks

[....]

Lewwyn just took another city off Azza

THH
Um, this is not promising.

OH
This is very disappointing.

THH
The sim, I mean.

OH
?

THH
If all our knights are fully healed and double-promoted, he annihilates them. [Technically we already knew this.]

OH
What if we attack him?

THH
Well, that's what we simmed before ... we annihilate him.

OH
Worst case scenario we pillage the roads around the city so he can't get to us in one go...

THH
That could work.
Or as I said we bomb the city so he has to trudge through our culture.
Basically, we have contingencies (leaving, pillaging, bombing ...) that should enable us to survive even if he plays cannily.

OH
He has to move to 2 tiles from the city to hit us, we have 2-movers
how many knights does it take to get him down to 3 cats?

THH
I'll test.
Actually, it's the axes that start living in large numbers the less knights we use.
(Testing with fully healed and promoted knights as before.
)
Which is good ...

[....]

So if we can expend a minimal number of knights taking the city, and use our trash for the rest, we might be able to attack his stack and survive any counterattack anyway ...

[....]

Ok, well, I think we move the knights to the tile we selected, then, and the trash toward Barca.
Not sure about the northern trash yet.

OH
Probably best to keep it for defence or to attack madrid?

THH
It's useless unless we tech Engineering anyway [to be able to move it south fast enough], and then only in a certain contingency.
Might as well keep it north I guess.
But don't threaten Madrid with it yet.
We don't want him to split his stack. [Heh, never thought I'd say that]

OH
If we move it to the tile the knights are currently on
Suttree will think it's gone to barca too

THH
Then it's well-positioned to respond to any opportunity, yes.

OH
probably

THH
Wait, why will he think that?
Oh, he has hill-visibility. [ie. our city Hastings is on a hill]
Yes, good idea.

OH
yep

THH
Ok, well I think this looks promising. How are you feeling about it?

OH
I think its going to work out brilliantly

THH
An optimist, I see.

OH
Suttree might keep his stack, but we get Barca
In an ideal world we get both!

THH
In which case we will have finally fulfilled our dream of suttree delenda est!

OH
Thanks for running the sims,

THH
No problem.

OH
lol

THH
If this attack works out, can you rename the last knight to attack suttree delenda est?
Also can I post this chat transcript?

OH
ha!

THH
I think Ceil would like to read it.

OH
Sure. But can you add some proper terminology like Mission Critical, etc

THH
Wha?

OH
Force Majour

THH
Ok, I can do that.

OH
Make it sound like we're pro's
(only kidding...)

THH
"The shwerpunckt of the assault will be ...."

OH
perfect

THH
This is exciting.
Anyway, I guess we might as well sign off now.
I look forward to seeing how this unfolds!

OH
Yep, I think we've covered everything
the interesting stuff will be in a couple of turns...

THH
This is kinda cool ... usually CIV isn't thought of as a maneuver-war type game.

[....]

OH
Okay, I'll go play the turn now - thanks for everything!

THH
You're welcome, and thank you!
G'night.

OH
Night!

[End of chat]

It'll make more sense with the numbered map, but basically we intend to threaten Barcelona in the south with our knights and some slow-movers, drawing his axe-and-cat stack south, where we destroy it in the open. If he realizes the danger his stack is in and holds it back, we believe we can take the city and still overcome his stack if it then advances to attack - something we couldn't do up at Madrid due to unit positioning and timing. It's an interesting little gambit! Wish us luck!

[Old Harry]

Turn 161

It's fair to say that for a long portion of the evening I thought the decision not to get Engineering had screwed us here. First up Suttree put more longbows into Madrid (so now there are seven), and dumped his stack of axes and cats just behind the city.


I was wondering if we should go attack dtay (he has two sentry chariots staking the north out, so that ain't happening), THH suggested TBSJ, I suggested Ichabod... Barcelona is an attractive target, but without engineering our 1-movers can't get next to it from the fog and it's three turns away from our 2-mover stack, by which time Suttree's cat stack can be on it's doorstep and we're still in trouble. Really I just saw us not attacking and our army drowning our finances as Mack teched to rifles and came and taught us a lesson in civ...


So what to do? I thought up a lame scheme about declaring and taking Madrid with huge losses then offering peace as if nothing had happened in the hope Suttree would take it... Yeah, lame. Then THH said: Why not attack through the middle? So we talked it over a bit, and it seems to work. 16 knights, 2 chariots and a GG mace are now 3N of Barcelona. They will move south to threaten the city next turn. A small detachment of 6 axes and 4 bowmen will approach from the west with a couple of maces and a knight a turn behind. We hope Suttree moves his cat stack SE of Barcelona, or anywhere within reach of our knights, so we can obliterate it instead of taking the city. If we can kill that stack then that's GG Suttree... If he doesn't put it in range of our knights then the 1-movers will soften up the city and the knights will take it.


On the north eastern front Hastings only has three units in it, but next door are our own cats (six of) and axes (seven). If it looks like Suttree is coming at hastings with the cat stack some of our knights will be able to come back and help out while the others get the job at Barca done. In an ideal world we'll end up killing his cat stack with our knights, but if we can't do that then we'll settle for taking Barcelona and all the cities to the south. Great plan THH! Lets see how Suttree tries to wriggle out of this...

Bigger was in the game and took another city from Azza. And Mack has gunpowder now and switched to Theocracy at the end of his GA, so I expect his power to rise a bit more in the near future. We have peace to eot165...


Demos and Power

[TheHumanHydra]

Great report, Harry; especially the picture. Also Harry forgot to mention I thought my own plan wouldn't work because suttree would move on the diagonal immediately SE of the cities in question, out of reach of our knights - but then he suggested moving 1N of Barcelona, wherefrom we would threaten all the tiles suttree could move his stack to, forcing him either in range or to abandon the city. So Old Harry redeemed the plan. Now let's just hope it works! Wish us luck, lurkers!