Cheater Hater's PBEM58 Thread (with a surprise post lead!)

[Cheater Hater]

I need more creative filler messages--does anyone know how many lines of filler are required for each screen resolution?

(Fun Fact: I believe this is the first thread I've started on RB )

Table of Contents:

Pregame: Settings Analysis Player Analysis
T0: Report Start Analysis
T1: Report C&D
T2: Report
T3: Report
T4: Report C&D
T5: Report C&D
T6: Report
T7: Report C&D
T8: Report C&D
T9: Report C&D
T10: Report Micro
T11: Report Micro

PBEM 58 Picture Folder (includes some pictures that don't make the thread)

[Cheater Hater]

To start with (and provide a bit more filler if necessary), let's recap what Seven told us about the map:

* It is not mirrored.
* It is 32x32.
* It has toroidal wrap.
* It is 20-25% water.
* It has no marble and no stone.
* Size is Standard. (Note: the size setting does not affect dimensions; it affects maintenance and tech costs, and e.g. number of theaters required for Globe Theater.)
* Difficulty is Noble.
* Unlike many starts, fishing will not be completely useless here. (But it's by no means needed.)

The important parts from that description:
1. Standard size/Noble difficulty/Toroidal wrap: This really devalues Organized as a trait, since maintenance costs are so low (pairing Toroidal/Prince seems like the standard maintenance settings here, and Organized isn't that popular at those settings regardless).
2. No marble/stone: Assuming eastway's pick of Huayna Capac remains the only Industrious leader, he'll have free run at any wonders he wants. This could mean he gets the benefit of lots of good wonders, or he goes wonder-crazy and forgets to build military, workers and settlers--hopefully it's the latter
3. Fishing useful but not required: This is the most interesting statements, since it points to starts (and/or cities in general) having both land and water food resources--this is the main reason why I wanted Elizabeth, since a high-food map means Philosophical is a much better trait than normal (and to be honest, I think I overvalue Philosophical, and Elizabeth in particular--I know cottage and specialist economies are opposing forces, but high food means spamming specialists everywhere becomes more reasonable--and if I get Rome like I hope I do, the Forum helps that plan a lot (plus that other thing Rome is known for )

Anyway, current plan is to pick Rome if it's available, though I reserve the right to change that after a closer look at the civilizations when it's my turn

[Cheater Hater]

Well, I did get Rome--let the festivities begin!

Looking at each of the other leader/civ pairings:

eastway-Huayna Cupac of Carthage (Fin/Ind, Fishing/Mining, Numidian Cavalry/Cothon):
Is Carthage really the 5th (7th) best civ? I'm probably undervaluing Numidian Cavs, and while Cothons are good, they don't seem gamebreaking unless you're Expansive. I already noted the Industrious monopoly in the above post (which did hold)--stay away from wonders unless you have a great tech lead or want the fail gold (the latter of which isn't as likely since there's no stone/marble).

AT-Mansa Musa of China (Fin/Spi, Agriculture/Mining, Cho-Ku-Nu/Pavilion):
I think China might be overvalued here, since it's mainly a starting tech play and Seven has told us that Fishing is a competitive tech (aka Agriculture isn't strictly necessary). Mansa is a fine, unspectacular pick--is there any way to really metagame against a Spiritual leader, other than assuming they're just faster in terms of slaving/drafting?

B4ndit-Darius of Ottomans (Fin/Org, Agriculture/Wheel, Janissary/Hammam):
The problem with Janissaries is that there's a short window for their impact, since their advantage is mostly negated once you're at tech parity (as compared to other UU's where you need to advance to a tech advantage to beat them). Because of that, I think Darius is an interesting choice--even though I trashed Organized earlier, going full-econ means you can extend the usefulness of the Janissary enough for it to be a factor.

TwinkleToes-Victoria of Sumeria (Fin/Imp, Agriculture/Wheel, Vulture/Ziggarat):
How good are Vultures? If I understand combat correctly, they're Axes that are the same against melee, but better against everything else--that should be good or bad for me, since it means it's better against other civ's UU's than mine, but that more Vultures would be built than normal axes would be in a similar situation. Of course, the Ziggarat is the real game-changer--expect TT to get at least one religion and the Oracle (or at least get in a fight with eastway for it). Victoia seems like an odd choice--the map seems cramped, so the settler bonus doesn't seem that good here.

[Cheater Hater]

T0 Report:
And so the game begins! First of all, my password, just in case something happens:

romanelite

And now what everyone has surely been waiting for (except the lurkers who already know the map ), the start!


Just as I expected--both a Fishing and Agriculture resource at the start. The gems at the start is a surprise, though
(For that matter, are any of the three resources naturally occurring? Obviously the clams in a lake aren't, but I don't think the gems or wheat occur normally either.)

Since huts are off, wide scouting isn't quite as good as verifying the start location, so I moved S-SE with the scout--and after seeing only grassland, settled in place:


I'm planning on going Agriculture first, moving to Bronze Working. As such, Worker-first is the obvious choice, since there are two high-quality resources to hook up (not to mention roads and chops). The Workboat-first opening pales in comparison, especially since there's no obvious tile to work at size 2 under that opening.

[Cheater Hater]

Now to what everyone does in these long multiplayer games: metagaming!
Let's look at the start again:


Assuming the starts are relatively balanced, that means each start has:
1 Lake Clams/Crabs in the first ring
1 Grassland Riverside Wheat/Rice in the first ring
1 Plains Hill Silver/Gems in the second ring
The settler starting on a plains hill

This means the Fishing starts have a pretty big advantage to start--assuming everyone settles in place and goes Worker-first (and the non-Fishing starts don't research Fishing in that time), that's 24 free commerce for the Fishing starts just while building the worker, a sizable amount. We'll see if eastway has a similar trajectory as I do--that will help confirm or deny the hypothesis. (being at the start of the turn also helps a lot with this)

[SevenSpirits]

(For that matter, are any of the three resources naturally occurring? Obviously the clams in a lake aren't, but I don't think the gems or wheat occur normally either.)

Indeed - wheat only naturally occurs on plains, and gems on grassland.

What other leaders/civs would you have considered if Rome or Elizabeth had not been available? Would knowing your starting position have changed your pick?

[Cheater Hater]

One thing I think that's really interesting is that since everyone took a Financial leader, no one took a Creative leader. I'm really surprised no one picked Suryavarman (Exp/Cre) in particular, especially Twinkletoes knowing no one else took a Creative leader. Seeing the start probably would have made me less likely to pick Financial, since knowing that "Fishing is relevant" =/= a coastal start devalues the early value of Financial a lot. On the other hand, the fish in the lake would have made Fishing a priority for me, not just "not a deterrent".

[Cheater Hater]

T1 Report:
Not much here, just a scout move and--hey, what's that in the corner?


Since stone and marble have been removed from the map, this will be one of the only quarries we'll see on this map most likely. However, it doesn't appear to be adding anything to the tile--is it just here for fun, or will there be more pre-placed improvements that actually do something?
(On a related note, is there a database for tile/resource/tile improvement values somewhere? I have been checking CivFanatics for all the leader/unit/city improvement stuff, but I didn't see anything for tiles there--did I miss it or is it somewhere else on the web?)

Other than that quarry, nothing specially happened--just 3 turns until Agriculture comes in (and another completely mechanical move to Bronze Working likely happens ).

[Cheater Hater]

T1 C&D:
Note: C&D posts will generally be works-in-progress; me writing things down as I notice them.
Also, as I'm new to this, please correct me on anything mechanics-wise I'm doing wrong, or at least point me towards resources that lets me do them right.
First of all, it appears everyone decided to settle on T0 (and likely in place):


(What's with that glitch with my city picture? Is it always like that and I just haven't noticed, or did something weird happen?)

Now to the gigantic source of information, the demographics screen, along with my city screen for reference:




To start with, somehow I'm 3rd in GNP despite postulating (with a semi-mirrored start) that I would be in first. Checking my GNP given by the demos screen against what I'm actually producing:

• 8 commerce, 2 culture, and 4 espionage from the Palace (total 14)
  
• 1 commerce from the city square
  
• 3 commerce from the clams tile
  
• 1 free beaker
  

That results in the 19 expected, but doesn't explain how someone would get 21--either they somehow are working a 5 commerce tile, they settled on a 2 commerce tile (increased to 3 via Financial), or one of the traits is affecting it somehow (and only the 2 culture from Creative would do so, correct?). Settling on a 2 (3) commerce tile makes the most sense--would settling on a riverside gems or incense work for that? (This is where the tile value list would be helpful )

In less-complicated GNP results, the worst GNP of 17 is much easier to explain--14 from the Palace, 2 from the city/free beaker, and 1 from the riverside food resource they're working.

As for the average GNP, does it round up, down, or nearest? It appears it rounds down (spoilers for math):

• 18*5=90, 90-19-21-17=33
  
• Assuming 2nd place is tied with me at 19 (since 20 would require a 4 commerce tile or unknown trait modification), 33-19=14
  
• The worst 4th place could be 17, which would mean average=18.6, which would have to be a round down for the displayed average to be 18
  

(4th place is unlikely/impossible to be 18 because of Financial's bonus)

In summary, likely full GNP rankings, and what they tell us:
1. 21 (Fishing, settled on a riverside resource, working lake clams/crabs)
2. 19 [strikethrough](Fishing, working lake clams/crabs)[/strikethough]
3. 19 (Cheater Hater-Fishing, working lake clams)
4. 17 (No fishing, working riverside 3 food resource)
5. 17 (No fishing, working riverside 3 food resource)

But wait! Of our competitors, only eastway has Fishing! That must mean second place settled on a riverside resource as well! The production/crop yield values says everyone is working a 3 food tile while having 2 hammers of production, which says that all our competitors likely settled on plains hills, so they must have spawned on the gems/silver tile I have in my second ring. That seems weird (and strangely imbalanced, though I'm sure the opportunity cost of settling the gems offsets the opening imbalance), but it's the only explanation I can see. So here's the revised GNP rankings:
1. 21 (eastway: Fishing, settled on a riverside plains hill gems/silver, working lake clams/crabs)
2. 19/20 (No Fishing, settled on a riverside plains hill gems/silver, working (riverside) 3 food resource)
3. 19 (Cheater Hater: Fishing, settled on plains hill, working lake clams)
4. 17 (No fishing, settled on plains hill, working riverside 3 food resource)
5. 17 (No fishing, settled on plains hill, working riverside 3 food resource)

But that still isn't completely right! SevenSpirits reminded me of the bonus from prerequisites, which makes much more sense than my "settling on gems" idea. With the set of six starting techs (notably the 4 people actually picked: Agriculture/Wheel/Fishing/Mining), the possible techs being researched with a prerequisite bonus are:
Pottery (B4ndit/Twinkletoes)
Animal Husbandry (B4ndit/Twinkletoes/AT)
Masonry (eastway/AT)

If we assume the "settling on gems" is instead prerequisite bonus, that means one is eastway, and the other is one of the non-fishing civs. Therefore, if all my C&D is correct, eastway must be researching Masonry (which along with Industrious points to an early Pyramids, but still doesn't make sense to prioritize over Agriculture or Bronze Working), our mysterious second place is researching either Pottery or (more likely) Animal Husbandry, and the last two places are not researching Animal Husbandry or Pottery--maybe they're going Fishing for the lake clams/crabs, or AT is going right for Bronze Working? Maybe someone's crazy enough to torpedo their start for Stonehenge/a religion?

Soldiers doesn't tell us anything we don't already know at this point--B4ndit/Twinkletoes have Wheel for 4000, while the rest have Mining for 2000.

Does Land Area not include water tiles? If so, that means everyone started inland, with the one lake tile in the first ring (or possibly coastal only on a corner).

I think that's all I can digest from the demos screen this turn--I don't know if I will do this level of analysis on every turn (or any future turn for that matter ), but I was bored, and am really into this game to start

[Cheater Hater]

Wow, that was a lot longer report than I expected--granted, part of that was realizing what was going on with those settled Gems/Silver (assuming all that's right--and I reserve the right to correct it if necessary). I also added a table of contents to the first post--it may not seem necessary when it includes over 60% of the posts currently, but it'll be useful later. I tried to make it fancy with a table, but I couldn't get the syntax to work--is there a guide for that anywhere?