The threatening option in the diplomatic part of Moo is known to be very exploitable. The opponents seem to be very keen to give BC/tech and to withdraw attacking forces, even if they are considerably stronger then the player. The dow reaction is rare and as sargon0 has shown, largely dependent upon the personality modifier of the opponent.
Here is the process, taken directly from the exe file, of the CP reaction to a threat.
1) the ROLL_1 is calculated:
ROLL_1 = d200 + 1/2*temp(treaty) + 2*personal_modifier + (100*player_productivity / CP_productivity)
2) set temp(treaty)=-120,
penalty of d15 to current_relations
3) ROLL_1 >= 275
The CP gives the player a tech. If there is no tech available, the CP cowers.
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
4) ROLL_1 >=200
The CP gives the player cash, proportional to (d8+2)*game_turn
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
5) ROLL_1 >=170
The CP cowers. (The program forgets to say it).
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
6) ROLL_1 < 170
The program makes another roll:
ROLL_2 = d15 - personal_modifier - d100
6a) ROLL_2 < 0
The CP ignores you (and continues the attack).
6b) ROLL_2 > 0
The CP declares war.
7) Program substracts 100 from all temp modifiers.
Notes:
- personal modifier is the key: it's counted in both rolls and doubled in the first one. The difference between a peaceful and a xenophobic PC is 140 in the first roll!
- (if the first roll is <170) A peaceful CP will never declare war. A honorable PC has around 2,5% chance to declare war. An aggresive one around 27%, xenophobic around 57% chance to dow.
- Temp(treaty) can add up to +55 to the roll !
- The power difference makes relatively very little importance compared to other factors. You'd have to produce 60%/140% of your opponent tally to lose/gain +40 (same amounts come simply from aggresive or peaceful CP)
- Seeing that the power ratio will be around 100 for most cases and temp (treaty) is rarely hanging under 50 for long periods, the player has 100-130 points granted for the first roll. It may be really hard to get the ROLL_1 under 170. The amount of cowering and gifts is now hardly amazing.
EDIT: After a test I've confirmed that the program hides YOUR spies after a threat, not his (minor bug).
Here is the process, taken directly from the exe file, of the CP reaction to a threat.
1) the ROLL_1 is calculated:
ROLL_1 = d200 + 1/2*temp(treaty) + 2*personal_modifier + (100*player_productivity / CP_productivity)
2) set temp(treaty)=-120,
penalty of d15 to current_relations
3) ROLL_1 >= 275
The CP gives the player a tech. If there is no tech available, the CP cowers.
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
4) ROLL_1 >=200
The CP gives the player cash, proportional to (d8+2)*game_turn
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
5) ROLL_1 >=170
The CP cowers. (The program forgets to say it).
It hides spies (this process is unsure) and withdraws fleets and 'makes peace' for d15+5 years.
6) ROLL_1 < 170
The program makes another roll:
ROLL_2 = d15 - personal_modifier - d100
6a) ROLL_2 < 0
The CP ignores you (and continues the attack).
6b) ROLL_2 > 0
The CP declares war.
7) Program substracts 100 from all temp modifiers.
Notes:
- personal modifier is the key: it's counted in both rolls and doubled in the first one. The difference between a peaceful and a xenophobic PC is 140 in the first roll!
- (if the first roll is <170) A peaceful CP will never declare war. A honorable PC has around 2,5% chance to declare war. An aggresive one around 27%, xenophobic around 57% chance to dow.
- Temp(treaty) can add up to +55 to the roll !
- The power difference makes relatively very little importance compared to other factors. You'd have to produce 60%/140% of your opponent tally to lose/gain +40 (same amounts come simply from aggresive or peaceful CP)
- Seeing that the power ratio will be around 100 for most cases and temp (treaty) is rarely hanging under 50 for long periods, the player has 100-130 points granted for the first roll. It may be really hard to get the ROLL_1 under 170. The amount of cowering and gifts is now hardly amazing.
EDIT: After a test I've confirmed that the program hides YOUR spies after a threat, not his (minor bug).