If we trace the meta all the way back, then the key move is Byzantium's overambitious settling on Ottoman's borders. That triggered Kathlete to turn their game around from the turnplay, and especially, the diplo perspective: they used this incident as the starting point to build significant relationships with the other teams which soon enough lead to CoW.
Spulla's big mistake was trying to do an Imperio (and, if we're honest, an RB until we discovered a perfect match in Donovan Banana) and play all ends against the middle. If they had asked either of Jowy or Dantski early on for a long term alliance I'm sure they'd have jumped at the chance ('Spulla wants to be my BFF:
'). It wouldn't matter that their turnplay might be 
... all the better to finish them off in the end-game.
Spulla's big mistake was trying to do an Imperio (and, if we're honest, an RB until we discovered a perfect match in Donovan Banana) and play all ends against the middle. If they had asked either of Jowy or Dantski early on for a long term alliance I'm sure they'd have jumped at the chance ('Spulla wants to be my BFF:
'). It wouldn't matter that their turnplay might be ... all the better to finish them off in the end-game.