With the road to Mincemeat completed, I actually achieved just enough commerce to reach Metal Casting at the EOT42 deadline. Commerce will go up a couple over the next 5 turns which should balance out cost increases from growth and ensure that I remain on track. I turned on research early before banking the full amount of gold because I want to save for a turn later on once my commerce-per-turn increases a couple more, in order to run higher slider on the last turn (or alternatively to run breakeven on the last 3 turns).
The road to Mincemeat also granted a trade route to TBS, confirming that he has Sailing in order to trade over the river outside of our territory to the west of Mincemeat. Sailing suggest a run at Great Lighthouse.
Most notably, TBS has neither copper nor horses! I put hammers into s spear last turn at Cashew Bars and was going to continue slow-building it while growing, but decided to cancel that build and finish the Armory first. With the 2 new workers I'm at the "free support + 1 handicap" limit so any additional unit will cost support. So far I have only spent 1g for unit supply on one turn where I wasn't paying attention.
He also lacks gold which is a huge commerce tile in addition to happy resource. Maybe I got extra lucky with hitting Gold 2nd ring to my capital while he missed it. I have a couple more food resources, but I also have my road network crossing through pigs and cows while TBS may have improved resources off of his road network.
MFG remains low, while GNP leads the world. I think rival 50 is TBS with Buddhism + Stonehenge contributing 18 culture (compared to Hinduism + 2 Armories contributing 7 culture for me). Subtract rival best and worst and the remaining 2 rivals average 39/each.
One stat that jumps out as odd is my land area. I have 11 more tiles of land area than next-best. Subtract rival best and worst and the remaining 2 rivals have 50/each compared to my 69! That's 19 more tiles, even though one of my cities is a 1-tile island! Counting up tiles from my 2 Armory/Hinduism border pops I'm getting 15 tiles, so that actually makes sense. Three of my cities are completely landlocked, and my capital just has a couple 2nd ring land tiles. This also suggests that OH (who I believe has at least as many cities as me) must have settled on an island already in order to be so far behind in land area.