[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[Ceiliazul]

I've seen game reports shorter than that post!

Man, I don't know what to say, this is excellent work. I would have got the reply in before your edit but the server spit it back at me. Then you added pics and even more refinements.

I have done this kind of work before, both the demo analysis and simming expansion take hours. Thank you sincerely for your time.

Today being Valentine's day, I have plans this evening that include bed time. I'm going to play the first turn as you suggest, and do a full play-through in the next couple days.

Amazing stuff, partner. Any additional info you need in the turn reports for your analysis?

[timski]

Technically the revised 'Henge is your suggestion! In spite of what's written, I think we need more military builds earlier. Plus the late Libraries erk me, given that we can easily be running Scientists. So I suspect the capital will remain the same, but the second city will be doing more building than growing, Writing before Iron Working, Library in the second city before Settler, B2 settled maybe 5 turns later?

Any additional info you need in the turn reports for your analysis?

Nothing special. Missing T18 power, but that's not urgent. I should get some sleep myself soon...

[timski]

(I'm enjoying actively shadowing the game, and trying things out I don't normally do: I'm learning a lot from such active involvement.)

Rival Land, Kyan/Dazed Revisited - from T19 demos:

Commodore is rival worst food and best hammers - 2 population, forest plains hill (3H), Fish (5F), plus plains hills capital (2F/2H) - total 7 food, 5 hammers. We can see Commodore's forest plains hill, so no doubt here.

GingerEagle is rival best food and worst hammers - 4 population, Fish (5F), maybe plains Deer (4F/1H), dry Corn or wet Rice (5F), inland water (2F), plus plains hills capital (2F/2H) - total 18 food, 3 hammers. Not certain about the Deer/Corn/Rice: Could be wet Wheat with dry Rice.

Rival average 4 hammers tells us nothing immediately about Kyan and Dazed, but the food average is much more interesting: Assuming the demos round up (average 11.5 would display as 12), Kyan and Dazed have at most 20 food between them (overall rival average 11.25).

Let's make an assumption about Kyan - Fish (5F) and Deer (4F, 1H) improved, plus an unimproved grass or inland water, plus plains hill capital = 13 food and 3 hammers total. They can't exceed 13 food since the rival worst is 7. To make that average balance, Dazed would have to have just 7 food and 5 hammers from 3 population - assume an plains forest hill (3H), unimproved Rice, inland water. The precise tiles don't matter much - the keyword is "unimproved".

Now, since both Dazed and Kyan average one another out, we can't be sure of who has what, only that between them, there is just one Fish and one Deer improvement complete. Uncertainty on the rounding mechanic creates a small margin for error, but not big enough to allow a significant extra tile improvement, like an extra Deer or Fish improvement, unless for some weird reason they were choosing not to work such a stellar improvement on T19.

Based on the Warrior builds and lack of growth we (at least I) are sure of, I doubt Dazed got a Work Boat out. So at best, Dazed has just Deer improved and Kyan has just Fish. The extreme case is that Dazed has nothing except roads, while Kyan's capital improvements mirror our own.

At this point, I suspect there has been NO bloodshed between Dazed and Kyan: Dazed invested everything in a rush, but then didn't have odds to take the capital once Kyan got Warriors (plural) in there, so didn't bother attacking. I'm increasingly reading Kyan's "good game" cynically - Dazed rushed to an empty capital, but Kyan got Warriors built just in time. Instead Dazed is probably now camped close to Kyan's Copper (like us with Commodore, only with 2 or 3 Warriors), making it impossible for Kyan to connect their metals. That's the only way Dazed can hope to prevent Kyan slaving out a few Axes and conquering Daze's pitiful economy. Dazed is probably heading for Bronze now, and if so we should be able to confirm who built the later Warriors (since Dazed will likely become rival best power).

If I'm correct, while they Kyan and Dazed may not have lost hammers directly in combat, both will waste a lot of time and hammers on a short-term phoney war, that achieves nothing other than slowing both down.

[Ceiliazul]

(I'm enjoying actively shadowing the game, and trying things out I don't normally do: I'm learning a lot from such active involvement.)

I'm happy you're enjoying this so far, I know I am.

Very interesting that neither Kyan or Dazed is working 2 foods. Now that you mention it, Commodore is also missing out on his deer.

That leaves just me and GE on pure growth tracks at the moment... that makes me happy!

I played t20, turn report pre-empted by Valentine's day. Ogg did fortify on his forest tile, Commodore is still working the 0/3/0 tile. I'll include t20 demos in the next turn report.

I don't think my warrior on the forest will do anything after forcing the 2nd warrior build, sadly. Commodore can easily put both warriors covering a worker, road to the copper and improve it on t25 as if I wasn't there. The one window of vulnerability will be when he moves to the copper but the road is not yet done: I can move my warrior SW toward his Capital safely. I hope he gives me the opportunity!

I had another thought: If Comm's Southern neighbor has 3rd ring borders on the mountain ridge like I do, I might be able to meet him just by moving that 1 tile SW. I'd really like to make contact before my warriors inevitable demise, so I'll arrange it on t25 if possible.

[timski]

Don't down-play the sheer annoyance factor of our Warrior to Commodore: When they could be out scouting, or freely moving Workers, they're forced to cover every home move militarily. The fun won't last, but these little delays are on critical turns for Commodore's subsequent growth. Of course you can probably cause similar delay by standing almost anywhere nearby. Watch that by moving south you don't let Commodore's Warrior make a move on our lands, and do exactly the same thing to us... Optimally, we don't want to have to panic-build defenses in the turns leading up to 30. Ideally, we can pull our Warrior home, just as Commodore is about to whack it.

Expansion Plan v2 - Writing before Iron

This addresse some of the issues with the earlier plan, but retains the same core moves.

Revised tech path is Wheel->Agriculture->Pottery->Animal Husbandry->Archery->Writing->Iron Working. Writing may be needed before Archery, depending on neighbor bonuses (explained below).

Capital production is unchanged until after its second Settler, and Worker micro is identical at both cities until around turn 44. But the second city switches tiles around a lot more, to maintain reasonable growth while also producing stuff.

For scouting capability, I tried 2 Scouts as second city opener, rather than the Spear. But this loses overflow hammers, delays the Granary and wastes trees. So, I kept the Warrior-converts-to-Spear build, and Granary on turn 32.

After the Granary, the second city builds a Scout (working the Cottage initially). The Scout completes turn 35, whipped at population 2 into half an Axe. One turn working the newly farmed Rice, back to size 2. With the Cottage and Copper worked at size 2, the Axe completes turn 38.

On turn 38, build another Axe, working the Rice and newly improved Cow to grow to size 3 on turn turn 39. Work the Cow, Cottage and Copper. The Axe is whipped on turn 41, the second city immediately re-growing back to size 3 the following turn.

Now, at this point I cheated: Writing was due 1 turn too late, and I could not find the extra turn, even by slowing the capital's Settler to work the newly mined Silver, and working both Cottages in the second city. But it was exceptionally close to possible, so highly likely that we would gain Writing by now in the live game, from contact with other players. The ultimate work-around would be to delay Archery till after Writing.

The second city builds a Library after its second (whip-overflow) Axe, with both chops going into the Library. Working both Cottages and the Cow on turn 42, Cottage, Cow and Copper on turn 43. Library completes turn 44, with growth to size 4. Library is followed by a Settler. The Settler can also be delayed slightly by working a Scientist in the second city. I'd rather keep Settler production fast, and limit Scientists to capping the overflow. I've assumed working 2 Cottages, Cow and Copper, switching from Cow to Rice once D1 is founded (but that will overflow rather a lot). Settler is whipped on turn 48, overflowing into military builds (likely a pair of Archers), to allow regrowth, before Worker #6.

On turns 44/45, the 3 Workers who have been busy around the second city (road towards D1 and 3rd Cottage) start to all move up towards B2, while putting the roads in that in the original plan the 5th Worker would have built. There's enough slack here to get a 4th and 5th Cottage built somewhere, or maybe farm 1NE of the Rice (for future irrigation), or temporarily use one of the 3 northern Workers to Farm the capital's Rice - the 3 Workers simply need to get back to B2's pasture for turn 50. This is why I'm not building a 5th Worker before the 4th Settler - there's plenty of slack with 4 Workers, until Iron Working.

Turn 44 also sees the first variation at the capital: The Settler is whipped on its final turn into a Library. With the Library build allowing growth, the ex-Silver Worker is best deployed to farm the capital's Rice, but as before, there's variation possible here, depending on tech rate. In the sim, early Silver is required to get Iron Working fast enough, but that means that the capital tends to grow more slowly. The Library is whipped on turn 49 (double whip anger again), immediately growing back to size 4, overflowing in a 2-turn Worker #5.

D1 is founded as previously described, on turn 47. Granary completed in D1 on turn 53 (whipped back to size 1 upon growth). B2 is founded turn 50, pastured immediately by 3 Workers. Iron Working on turn 51, perfectly timed for the same 3 Workers to Pasture the Pig. B2 needs to grow beyond size 3 before whipping their Granary, completing the Granary turn 58, Work Boat and Clams netted on turn 61. So while the Granary is still rather slow, that city explodes thereafter.

I won't post a turn 50-ish picture, because there's little visual difference from before. Strategically, this plan feels much better: An extra Axe and new Scout overall, both available earlier. Libraries in the capital and second city for faster subsequent research, which is great, because most of our cities would start growing at outrageous rates without Scientists. No tangible delay in improvements or subsequent growth potential. There's a fair bit of Worker flexibility towards the end.

After-Thoughts:

I suspect the capital's Library can be better managed - I wasn't too fussed about whip efficiency and overflows by that point.

B2's Pigs only need 2 Workers to clear/Pasture by the time the city reaches size 2, not 3 Workers. That frees up a northern Worker immediately after B2's Cow pasture, likely for Gem mining or D1's second Pasture or some combination. That eases a potential brief bottleneck on Workers at the moment we gain Iron Working: While we can easily pre-build enough improvements to never work an unimproved tile, there are a few turns where we might not be able to work the best possible tile. For example, we can't assign multiple Workers to the Gems the moment we tech Iron Working, but the second city would have no shortages of Cottages to work while waiting.

However, any bottleneck should only last a couple of turns: For example, at size 5, both the capital and second city can produce 4-turn Workers (un-whipped) while running a single Scientist. And if we're still feeling short of Workers a little later, B2 will be able to produce Workers once its 3 food tiles are online.

On the flip-side, at around size 6/7 (easily attained by the late 50s, if not before) both our capital and second city can run 2 Scientists while still growing and building, giving us 50+ Beakers/turn at 100% research, not to mention a lot of Great Person points. At 4 cities, we're able to average 70% research without losing money. For context, that's Metal Casting in about 10 turns, or Mathematics and Currency combined in 12 turns. Since we're very close to happy-capped at that point, only GingerEagle will be able to manage that sort of tech rate. This is the point at which we start to move from weak to strong. If we can survive till turn 60 without major incident, we're in contention for beating Commodore to the Mace-era.

[Ceiliazul]

Best move for the capital's Granary appears to be using the third Worker to Mine the plains-forest-hill tile. Plains hill mine is as strong as farming the Rice (pre-Civil Service), and chopping and mining in one move is ultra-efficient.

I've walked thru the sim on paper, and yesterday's version looks really good. I'm excited to play thru on the sim tonight. (Dang my day job!) Nothing seen below detracts from your plan:

I hightlight the above piece because it is quite wrong if you're whipping. A size 2 city can convert 16f::20h by whipping. After the granary foodbox is full, a size 4 city can convert 17f::40h. That's a 2.35x conversion rate! Yes, that's an ideal whip. Yes, there's an opportunity cost of lost citizen-turns. Still, as long as we're whipping efficiently, it's not unreasonable to equate that "bad" dry rice to an 8h production tile. (It gets more complicated when you try to account for the 2f the citizen eats, but we'd otherwise be working a 0/4 tile so I'm figuring the food is already provided.)

This doesn't really impact your plan because the real power of whipping doesn't come in until after the granary is full. Just something to keep in mind. One variation I haven't simmed is whipping a granary on t29 instead of a worker... I'll check it out tonight.

Edit: CFC kicked back my link because their server was too busy.

[timski]

... A size 2 city can convert 16f::20h by whipping. After the granary foodbox is full, a size 4 city can convert 17f::40h. That's a 2.35x conversion rate! ...

This is precisely where you'll be able to improve on some of my city management . Although the Granary itself doesn't benefit thus, and the whole combined chop-mine and 2-pop whip feels quite slick. But certainly worth improving the capital's Rice before the Silver, since we can likely live without the cash and happiness for a while. I'd suggest playing through version 2, whose end position is considerably stronger than my first plan.

[Ceiliazul]

I'd suggest playing through version 2, whose end position is considerably stronger than my first plan.

I most definitely will!

[timski]

One variation I haven't simmed is whipping a granary on t29 instead of a worker...

The overflow doesn't quite work, either delaying the 'henge by one turn or (not recommended) swapping Fish for Forest Plains Hill. 1 turn delay does mean growth to size 4 by the time the 'Henge completes on turn 32. The following Worker can be 2-pop whipped to come out on turn 34. Lack of Agriculture also makes Pottery and Animal Husbandry take a turn longer, and makes the second city micro harder, since there is no option to improve the Rice. Essentially we've saved at best a turn on capital builds, while messing up research and second city efficiency by not having Agriculture first. Not to mention increasing the risk of losing the 'Henge and delaying the second city's border expansion.

Edit: Ignore the initial overflow comment, it does work, if we switch 3rd tile around at the capital. But we won't get the growth without delaying - either we're one hammer short of the 'Henge or one food short of growth - most frustrating. So the Worker still pops out at about the same time as the Granary - changing the order is at best marginal. The second city micro can also be salvaged by teching Agriculture after Pottery, but that is rather wasteful at that point.

Another variation for a capital Granary: Settler, Worker #3 and Stonehenge as planned. Then the Granary can be 2-pop whipped on turn 34 at the capital - just grow up to size 4 on food after the 'Henge. This works alongside the mine-chop, to get a 2-turn Worker #4 out on turn 37. Doesn't make a difference to the Worker timing, but overflows better, since the Granary is already complete before the chop comes in. Added: This makes no discernible difference in the time taken to start on Settler #3 either. However, combined with the earlier improvement of the capital's Rice (straight after the mine-chop) Settler #3 can be 2-pop whipped on turn 42, getting it out 2 turns soon, and hence D1 settled 2 turn sooner. D1's roads are already finished, just in time. Whip overflow goes into the capital's Library, providing a window to regrow: With the new Rice-before-Silver Worker micro, the capital grows to size 5, with all 5 improved tiles being worked, and the Library is whipped to completion on the cusp of size 6, into a Worker. That change looks really good - faster everything, no downside.

I also thought about Writing before AH/Archery, which allows Worker #4 to be followed by a Library, during which time the capital can grow. But it is too extreme, if for no other reason than it prevents Pasturing the Cow.

[Ceiliazul]

Also Writing before AH/Archery, allows Worker #4 to be followed by a Library, during which time the capital can grow. Too extreme? ...Erm, yes. If for no other reason than it prevents Pasturing the Cow.

Agreed. AH is even more important for defense than is archery. On this balanced map, we need to know where horses are ASAP, and watch for our opponents to connect them. Getting chariots of our own would sure be nice too!