[Spoilers] Grotsnot massively inflates his own View count

[Grotsnot]

Ok so let's take a quick overview of the sad little zenith of the Japanese Empire. I still don't have graphs but who cares at this point. I'll probably try and put a C&D summary together before I'm officially dead just to get something pre-registered before I can peek at their threads, but that is not this day. Wonderful waste of half a gig of screenshots but oh well.

First up, the current scores:





We've managed to stay above irrelevance, though not doing especially well. Was the last one to City 2 and the first to City 3. With the quest for Seoul done my Science could catch up a bit but my culture rate is abysmal due to the lack of Monuments (OP Rome can go die in a fire). Early Empire was paused until the Encampment finishes, since Urban Planning is doubly effective there. Was hoping I could swap out to Colonization once it finished. Alhambram won't be dumb enough to get bounced by my resulting lack of hard borders but I can dream






Also GPPs since it fits best here. If Rome had directed their bullshit south instead I was considering putting out a couple Prayers in Ooara/Saunders to try and leapfrog the Russians. Would be quite a gamble banking on them not doing the same, but it was an option. Was also going to get an Encampment in Ooarai and possibly a Barracks in St Gloriana to work on my own GG to run the forts.



Next up, our 3 cities. They're starting to languish a bit due to war footing so I haven't had the spare to get those Wheats farmed, which would delay 2nd districts.









And here's what the known world looks like. Home:


Greece:


And the western hinterland, which would have been a bit of a settling race with the Greeks:



Ah, yes, and the City-States. Greece has yet to complete any quests. Meanwhile I get the door prize of having done all their Ancient quests
Rome I'm guessing hasn't even met these 3. Possibly Amsterdam?







To wrap things up, here's the current state of my neighbors.
Firstly, our gnashing doberman buddy Greece:







Next up, Arabia, who will hopefully not follow me onto a dinner plate:







And finally Trajan the Magnificent Bastard:








A bit light on commentary but whatever. Next post will look at the current tactical situation. I think my only chance is to throw both Slingers under the bus and pray incredibly hard to RNGesus that I can hold the river pocket for a turn.

[Grotsnot]

Here's what I've got as far the upcoming turns. It's... pretty desperate.

Here's my anticipated Roman moves. Slinger is a wildcard







Here's one possible counter. As described at length earlier, there are not many options that can save St Gloriana. This has a small chance at the cost of a lot of my military   


With the Warrior following up into the Spearman's current tile. Here's what this all does:
* Spearman needs to scramble down to give StG the 25 base STR. Unfortunately, Legions swing at 54 vs AT units and the Spear only has 25STR. Recipe for getting murderized on T49. So a Slinger sits in front of him, plinks at a Legion, and then dies, giving the Spear precious time to get into the city. The -1STR when they hit the city might even help, though certainly not enough on its own.
* Slinger 2 is my hail mary attempt at only having to survive 3 hits. With a plink shot at the Legion, it has to survive a 45 vs 15 fight. Tall order. And that's assuming the Roman Slinger is not able to come down and smack him with a rock first
* Ooarai is already working on Walls. With all the hills (except under the city itself, naturally ) it's not nearly as defensible a position as Stalingradiana but may as well try. I need to remember to transfer the Iron tile over to the capital before StG falls so I have a prayer of getting Swords. Though with only 1 source and the loss of my Encampment I'm not sure I can anyway. Bugger.

So let's see. Best case? Well, in the BEST case the Slinger runs away onto the rice behind the Legions so let's go with that...
T49:
Slinger w/ Volley plinks Legion Group North: 20 vs 48 -> 10 damage
Green Slinger plinks Legion Group South: 15 (fairly certain DW does not apply) vs 48: 8 damage
LGN attacks Slinger: 43 vs 5 -> Superduperdead. Not even minimum damage will save him. Does about 6 damage in return.
LGS attacks Slinger: 45 vs 15 -> 99.6 damage on average. Up to RNGesus. Does about 9 damage to the Legion
Branch 1: Slinger miraculously survives the hit. And then probably dies to the Roman Slinger but maybe gets to run away. Either way in no shape to matter going forward but did his job of NOT ONE STEP BACK
T50:
Spear forts up in the CC
LGS(83/100) crosses the river
LGN(84/100) slugs StG: 44 vs 32 -> StG -48; Legion -19
T51:
StG Heals 20, @161/200
LGS(83/100) slugs StG: 44 vs 25 -> StG -64; Legion -14
LGN(64/100) slugs StG: 42 vs 26 -> StG -57; Legion -16
T52:
StG Heals 20, @60/200
LGN@48/100, LGS@69/100

Walls finish! The Slinger Saunders finished on T49 upgrades to an archer giving us 2 25STR attacks, and it's at full power since it's based on the Wall's health. Let's focus on LGN.
25 vs 40 -> 16 damage (32/100)
25 vs 39 -> 17 damage (15/100)
What the hell, Warrior will sally out from the Encampment we'll go ahead and assume nothing interfered with them reaching on T50 and healed on T51 up to 90/100
19 vs 37 -> 14 damage. So close! What if we try the spear?
25 vs 47 -> 12 damage, taking 72 in return! Not the best trade but the walls should and killing a Legion is big.
Then Warrior: 19 vs 37 -> kills it and takes 61, dropping it to 29/100.
After that who knows. Walls math is weird. And Rome will probably have reinforcements coming down the pipe anyway.

So what about Branch 2 where the Slinger gloriously dies anyway, is the plinkage sufficient? No, it won't be, but let's run it anyway.
T50:
Spear forts up in the CC
LGS(83/100) slugs StG: 44 vs 27 -> Stg -59; Legion -15
LGN(84/100) slugs StG: 44 vs 29 -> StG -55; Legion -16
T51:
StG Heals 20, @106/200
LGS(68/100) slugs StG: 42 vs 22 -> StG -67; Legion -13
LGN(68/100) slugs StG: 42 vs 23 -> StG -64 and dies; Legion -14
Huzzah, pointless waste of life. Overkilled by about 20 so additional plinks my remaining units wouldn't help, either. Maybe you're right Banzai and I should just abandon the city

---

This is an immensely frustrating situation all told. If ANYTHING on my part had been ONE(!) turn faster or Rome one turn slower, I think this would be somewhat survivable. Hell, I am ONE GODDAMN COG away from getting the Walls up on T51

Because, you know, if there's one civ that needs this kind of lucky timing, it's Rome Props for executing the zerg rush. I've been expecting this since turn 8 and it wasn't enough so Al's doing something right. And I'm sure I've done plenty of things wrong. Even if I'd gotten the one turn's grace period it'd be a hard fight, but at least it wouldn't be a steamroll...

[Grotsnot]

(PS: For the record I'm not even gonna try Order No. 227 if Rome's Slinger is in an unfavorable position. I may be crazy stupid but not suicidally stupid.)

(PPS: All combat calculations subject to "I took a formula from CivFanatics and plugged the dead average into Wolfram Alpha an iterated bunch of times, YMMV")

[Grotsnot]

I did manage to get an opening screenshot before I had to leave for work, but I'm not making the same mistake as yesterday and rushing through the turn. If I'd thought through the last one properly I could have delayed Legion Group North a turn

Arguably poor form to peek before sitting on the turn so I can avoid that in the future if anyone cares to push back on it. But it's hard to feel bad about it this turn given the general situation.




Hmm hmm hmm...

(Notes: remember there's a spear hiding behind the top Campus pin. And the Warrior in Saunders has I think 20some health? In the red but not quite basically dead. Warrior by Ooarai has an even 80)

[Banzailizard]

I think it is ok to look at the situation before playing, the issue is if you say move units around or reroll combat to your favor before playing.

Odd that Rome did not just openly declare war but took another turn to maneuver.  My suggestion from before for walls still stands.  Buy that forest the builder is standing on and chop it into a wall. That might save the city.

[Grotsnot]

Buy that forest the builder is standing on and chop it into a wall. That might save the city.

Yeah, that's been the operating plan. The one that will take until T52 for the Walls to finish Chopping w/ the Encampment's +100% overflow nets ~65 and the city generates 6/turn now that it has 2 pops. I'm going to switch production over to the Walls until the chop is sufficient to finish it. Don't want to complete the Encampment only to give Rome a nice present

Fun fact: if I had gone for Pottery or Sailing instead of Iron Working I could have gotten enough extra chop cogs to finish the Walls on T51 Three cheers for demoralized lack of spreadsheeting


Let's see what possible ways we can insult Alhambram's intelligence options we have to buy that critical turn. Hopefully the outline format is readable - I've already spent too much post-lunchbreak company time on this

Diplomatically:
  Offer Tribute
    13gpt+Horses+Iron
    Only per-turn items so they don't get anything if they take it and DoW after
    Don't expect a full reprieve but maybe they'll take it for a turn or two to bring up reinforcements
  Taunt Them
    Demand a city or something
    Denounce? Arguably should have last turn
    Idea being to get them to target my units or otherwise vengefully misplay
  First Strike
    Plink Legions or possibly kill Slinger (average from my 2 attacking it is ~99 damage)
    Not sure how being the one to DoW would play with MP diplomacy

Tactically:
  Not One Step Back
    Almost required to pair with First Strike. Possibly Tribute but that's a big gamble
    Sacrifice a goat or some dice or something to RNGesus - Slinger has only like a 50% chance to succeed.
    Also requires insulting AlB's intelligence to not plonk it with their Slinger before having Legion Group South attack.
  Abandon Ship
    Flee to the hills around Ooarai, leave a Slinger to plink at Legions in StG until the last minute
    Could maybe try and take out the Roman Slinger as we go
    StG has our strategic resources and Encampment, though. Ooarai's growth will line up such that it can start on an Encampment once the Walls finish (T54ish?) but that's not finishing until the late 50s
  Mixed
    Still need a Slinger to die protecting the Spear
    Hope they forget to DoW before entering my territory
      Early Empire finishes next turn and would push them back
      AlB is not that stupid

I'm really not sure which route I want to take. Slightly leaning toward First Strike + Not One Step Back or Tribute + Mixed, I guess?

Finally, a little scheme shower brain cooked up: pessimistic title "Operation Choke On It" or optimistically "Move Industry to the Urals". (You know you're up a creek when Soviet analogies are optimism)
  Finish Early Empire, switch to Colonization, have Saunders build a Settler
  Run like hell west
  Throw all my beakers (after Archery[?]) at Sailing+Shipbuilding to flee across the sea. Pray that there's an island I can hide on Ideally large enough to fit 2 non-coastal cities but really anything out of the way would suffice
  Could trade Open Borders with Greece and try and hide my refugee band on the other side of their territory. Need to sim if Rome would be able to pursue without DoWing Greece.
  Another thing I need to sim, but I think having a Settler still alive keeps me in the game? If not found a city as far west, or southwest, as I can and have it get another Settler out ASAP
  If I have to hide a city down by Greece, as thanks for the shelter, I'd probably gift them the city one my island hideout is established. Unless that goes against the RB code of honor?
  Hope that AlZ, TBS, & CMF consider my staying alive as a millstone around Rome's neck to be more beneficial than snagging a Settler or refugee city.
  Rely on donations from the blessedly-non-conquerable City-States to get me marginally back on my feet
  Refugee cities follow Carthaginian naming scheme. Maybe mix in Gaza or Free French/Polish/etc. If I need to plant a staging city on the home landmass it'll probably be Troy. I'd like to call it The Grey Havens but that might run afoul of meta-communication rules
  Demand all my cities back every turn or three until the game ends (another thing that I need to research is what happens if Greece or someone takes one of my cities from Rome - is it still under occupation?)

[Banzailizard]

Wait does Japan give a bonus to encampment production or a discount on cost. The former could net you a bonus. Unless that turn 52 timing adds that to the calculation already. Also did you finish archery. A new tech should increase the amount of the check by about 7 production.

[Grotsnot]

Yeah, sadly, the x2 production and Archery is already factored in. If I'd picked up Sailing for the Whales instead of working on IW then that would have pushed it over the edge but alas 

[Grotsnot]

Is it acceptable to load the turn, do the chop, check the coggage, and then reload? To make sure my model is accurate

[Banzailizard]

Not sure myself but I would say it sounds like it is pushing it. Maybe just sim it in a single player game if you can?