WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[naufragar]

Wonderful. So I might be deciding the game based on the kinds of reads I was criticizing earlier.


I already expressed my pretty much unshakeable belief that Commodore is town. If I'm wrong about this, everything that follows from that can be wrong, but I've got to start somewhere. This leaves 3 unconfirmed people (SD, Serdoa, Charriu). I'm assuming there are two remaining wolves. I don't think the wolves would bus one of their own at LyLo, so I would guess that Serdoa and Charriu are the remaining wolves. I have some small consolation from the fact that if there are 2 wolves among those three, I'm more likely than not to hit one, regardless.

Serdoa, I don't believe that Superdeath felt the danger of claiming vanilla Villager. Our tracker is already dead; the odds that he would have been observed seem small.

I know that I'm being frustrating, especially because I acknowledge practically everything in this post rings true. (I can't speak to the initiative stuff.) I'm keeping my vote on Charriu. I know that seems irrational, bordering on absurd. It's not that I think Superdeath incapable of deceit, as Commodore seems to think. It's that I don't think he's lying right now.

[Charriu]

Wonderful. So I might be deciding the game based on the kinds of reads I was criticizing earlier.


I already expressed my pretty much unshakeable belief that Commodore is town. If I'm wrong about this, everything that follows from that can be wrong, but I've got to start somewhere. This leaves 3 unconfirmed people (SD, Serdoa, Charriu). I'm assuming there are two remaining wolves. I don't think the wolves would bus one of their own at LyLo, so I would guess that Serdoa and Charriu are the remaining wolves. I have some small consolation from the fact that if there are 2 wolves among those three, I'm more likely than not to hit one, regardless.

Serdoa, I don't believe that Superdeath felt the danger of claiming vanilla Villager. Our tracker is already dead; the odds that he would have been observed seem small.

I know that I'm being frustrating, especially because I acknowledge practically everything in this post rings true. (I can't speak to the initiative stuff.) I'm keeping my vote on Charriu. I know that seems irrational, bordering on absurd. It's not that I think Superdeath incapable of deceit, as Commodore seems to think. It's that I don't think he's lying right now.

Well to be fair Superdeath hasn't felt any danger for the most part in this game. He was happily skating by from the end of day 1. What better way to hide among towns people!

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 1045:

Lynch votes
3 votes: Charriu (superdeath, naufragar, Commodore)
2 votes: superdeath (Serdoa, Charriu)

Voting history:

superdeath

Charriu

Superdeath

Superdeath

Charriu

Charriu

Charriu

2 Hours, 36 Minutes remaining.

[Serdoa]

It's fine nauf. I appreciate that you thought about it and coming to different conclusions is part of the game. Sometimes it gets frustrating, but normally because you feel that the other one is - either by chance or by choice - misunderstanding you. I don't think you do that here. My trust in Comm has dents, so it is natural that we have different starting points. Either you are right and the game goes on or all of us have been wrong and then it ends and we have time for the next one

If you do think there is something I can clarify that might have you rethink your choice, let me know, I'm happy to explain. Else we just wait for the next 2.5 hours and see what the end of day brings.

[Commodore]

It's fine nauf. I appreciate that you thought about it and coming to different conclusions is part of the game. Sometimes it gets frustrating, but normally because you feel that the other one is - either by chance or by choice - misunderstanding you. I don't think you do that here. My trust in Comm has dents, so it is natural that we have different starting points. Either you are right and the game goes on or all of us have been wrong and then it ends and we have time for the next one

If you do think there is something I can clarify that might have you rethink your choice, let me know, I'm happy to explain. Else we just wait for the next 2.5 hours and see what the end of day brings.

You're village or a good wolf, Serdoa, nice post. Naufragar is signalling he's solid, if he's village you've lost at this point going against him. If he's Charriu's scumbuddy, he can swap at the last minute to smack a village Superdeath and we've lost. 

Why not hop over to Charriu and make it a much safer 4v1 situation at lylo? It's good to have unity. Last-second treachery is always a danger. You made a case for a SD/Charriu scum team, so if you're being honest there's at least a chance of winning. If you are scum, things are still tight enough that you can bus your buddy here and it's an interesting final day, because like I said, I'm only leaning scum on you, honest.

[Charriu]

SO to be clear, Superdeath, you are claiming to be village-aligned, but also a better serial killer than Pindicator?

Just bad luck. I probably wouldnt have shot every night had i not been so lucky the first night. I assume El Grillo hid behind Cyneheard.

In this case, Superdeath has been more effective than the wolves at decimating the village.

FML. That kind of does sound on-brand.  

 


I suspect we have just one wolf remaining. Although could be two. If there is only 1, we got a good chance of winning. If there are two.... well we better lynch one today. Charriu or Nauf sound like the best candidates, unless Serdoa or Commodore have been playing the best mind-game ever.

I would say that it's fairly certain that if there are only three wolves, the last wolf has some power role; village is loaded with Tracker, Hider, Commuter, and Doctor at least, plus Vigilante if SD is telling the truth (although vig is a notoriously jester-prone role). I'm going to say that making the casual assumption of one remaining scum is dangerous to even be considered anti-town. I would definitely assume we're at lylo. Or that we're at "Brick is toying with us and we've already lost" if Itchy McTrigger can't stop blasting a villager every night as a villager.

It's fine nauf. I appreciate that you thought about it and coming to different conclusions is part of the game. Sometimes it gets frustrating, but normally because you feel that the other one is - either by chance or by choice - misunderstanding you. I don't think you do that here. My trust in Comm has dents, so it is natural that we have different starting points. Either you are right and the game goes on or all of us have been wrong and then it ends and we have time for the next one

If you do think there is something I can clarify that might have you rethink your choice, let me know, I'm happy to explain. Else we just wait for the next 2.5 hours and see what the end of day brings.

You're village or a good wolf, Serdoa, nice post. Naufragar is signalling he's solid, if he's village you've lost at this point going against him. If he's Charriu's scumbuddy, he can swap at the last minute to smack a village Superdeath and we've lost. 

Why not hop over to Charriu and make it a much safer 4v1 situation at lylo? It's good to have unity. Last-second treachery is always a danger. You made a case for a SD/Charriu scum team, so if you're being honest there's at least a chance of winning. If you are scum, things are still tight enough that you can bus your buddy here and it's an interesting final day, because like I said, I'm only leaning scum on you, honest.

Could say the same about SD. Why not hop over to SD and lynch a player, who screams scum all over the place. 

You know what the most infuriating thing is? The fact that SD might actually win with his kind of play. It's just sad.

[Commodore]

I realize you're on at day's end, Serdoa, and if your reactions are fast then you might be able to quick-swap if a scum Naufragar or scum me quick-swapped to Superdeath treacherously, then you'd have the scumbuddy outed, and you win. But that's high risk for village-Serdoa, if you are one.

[Commodore]

Could say the same about SD. Why not hop over to SD and lynch a player, who screams scum all over the place. 

You know what the most infuriating thing is? The fact that SD might actually win with his kind of play. It's just sad.

Alas, for my sins, I believe Superdeath. I completely agree that it's sad that the #1 village killer looks set to win. But sadly, his vig claim also solves every part of this mystery-box setup and all other solutions are significantly less plausible.

[Charriu]

You know what would be really funny. If SD is a vig survivor. 

[Commodore]

You know what would be really funny. If SD is a vig survivor. 

Pindicator has to be watching just fuming with jealous rage.