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Jabbz, sorry if I'm being slow, but I still don't follow. Lewwyn doesn't take a position on Brick. So are you not convinced of Lewwyn's logic that of Brick is telling the truth he's caught scum and if he's lying he is scum? I read you initially to mean 'I'm not convinced of Brick's innocence/guilt' but I don't think it makes much sense to say that to Lewwyn since he wasn't making a determination about that.
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(February 28th, 2015, 20:27)Lewwyn Wrote: I'm just going to post this vote tally from Day 1 with 5 hours to go.
(February 19th, 2015, 09:56)Commodore Wrote: Tally as of post 209:
5 votes: Doctor Saul (Lewwyn, zakalwe, Jabbz, Gazglum) (Fenn)
3 votes: Mattimeo (sunrise089, Rowain)(dtay)
2 votes: AdreinIer (Qgqqqqq) (novice)
2 votes: sunrise089 (Gaspar) (Mattimeo)
1 votes: Novice (AdrienIer)
1 votes: Fenn (Doctor Saul)
1 votes: Gaspar (BRickAstley)
Voting history:
~5 hours to go.
Notice anything?
I think this might actually be a strong point in favor of Sunrise's innocence. Gaspar and Matt were both definitely trying to get him lynched. Following this gazglum made it 3 votes on Matt and Adrien made it 4 votes on him. After that Gaspar switches over to Matt.
I think scum were trying to go with the lurker lynch of sunrise here, but in the end were forced to swap back over to Matt for the cred. There is a possibility that Matt and Sunrise were both scum running a large distancing gambit, but I think the presence of BOTH Gaspar and Matt on Sunrise with 5 hours to go makes it very unlikely that all three are scum in a scum ploy.
So I am actually leaning toward Sunrise being less likely scum, but I still need to read a bit more on him to make sure.
The other thing to notice is four townies on Dr. Saul, and two scum voting elsewhere.
I have to run.
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I'm not sure how you missed it, but I am talking about the possibility that Brick is lying about his claim that he checked novice, adrien, and gaz, and got positive results for a killer.
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Check out this post by BRick from the end of day 3. He incriminates himself in all sorts of ways, click the link back to read the entire post. Extracts:
(February 25th, 2015, 10:38)BRickAstley Wrote: (February 25th, 2015, 03:24)Gazglum Wrote: Brick, what do you think of Gaspar? His Day 3 driving is less this:
And more this:
And a lot of hedging in his votes.
Hmm, now that I think about it, I haven't really thought about Gaspar much. Today he seems to have all of the same reads as me (looking at Q, Lewwyn, and novice). I'll take a look at some of his arguments here in a little bit.
(February 25th, 2015, 05:53)Qgqqqqq Wrote: Firstly though, do people really think I'm scum? [...]
Yes, I do really think you're scum.
[...]
I wanna relook at novice too, because while he does share targeting you, he also feels pretty lazy. He doesn't feel as scummy as you do to me right now though, and if you do flip town that seems to me to pretty well indicate novice as potential scum.
(February 25th, 2015, 08:13)Gazglum Wrote: Third, Novice has been on Q the hardest, and I don't trust Novice. He has not been looking at the whole board.
I can easily see one or the other of the two being scum. Lynch one today, if he flips town, lynch the other tomorrow?
Quote:Finally, as Dtay has said much better than me, its suspicious how long Q has sat at the top without his 'scum buddies' trying to help him out.
What if he's told the scum to feel free to bus him? If he's short on time and unhappy with his play so far this game, I could very well see scum Q saying "yeah just take me out whenever, I wont be lasting til endgame anyways." I mean it's already been done with mattimeo this game, and it could give remaining scum really good cover, due to the WIFOM factor.
First of all, no opinion on Gaspar.
Next, BRick, you really do think Q is scum, but I still feel lazy? I've started jumping around and I'm explaining why, you're not commenting on that. If I'm lazy, shouldn't I be staying on Q? You're already queuing up the next mislynch.
Like I've asked before, if you were so convinced Q was scum, why didn't that give you a town read on me? That seems unrealistically objective, given how you had no issue with any of the reasons I gave for voting Q.
After being sure Q is scum, you can "easily see" him or me being scum in a later paragraph. OK, so you're not sure Q is scum? And if Q flips town "that seems to me to pretty well indicate novice as potential scum". Well I think this pretty well indicates that you potentially hedge too much.
Finally, how do you know that Mattimeo has said "just take me out whenever" to his scum buddies?
I have to run.
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(March 1st, 2015, 04:40)novice Wrote: Finally, how do you know that Mattimeo has said "just take me out whenever" to his scum buddies?
And perhaps more importantly, if you believe that's what happened, why was Q scummy for starting a last minute wagon on Q?
I have to run.
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(February 28th, 2015, 20:27)Lewwyn Wrote: I'm just going to post this vote tally from Day 1 with 5 hours to go.
(February 19th, 2015, 09:56)Commodore Wrote: Tally as of post 209:
5 votes: Doctor Saul (Lewwyn, zakalwe, Jabbz, Gazglum) (Fenn)
3 votes: Mattimeo (sunrise089, Rowain)(dtay)
2 votes: AdreinIer (Qgqqqqq) (novice)
2 votes: sunrise089 (Gaspar) (Mattimeo)
1 votes: Novice (AdrienIer)
1 votes: Fenn (Doctor Saul)
1 votes: Gaspar (BRickAstley)
Voting history:
~5 hours to go.
Notice anything?
I think this might actually be a strong point in favor of Sunrise's innocence. Gaspar and Matt were both definitely trying to get him lynched. Following this gazglum made it 3 votes on Matt and Adrien made it 4 votes on him. After that Gaspar switches over to Matt.
I think scum were trying to go with the lurker lynch of sunrise here, but in the end were forced to swap back over to Matt for the cred. There is a possibility that Matt and Sunrise were both scum running a large distancing gambit, but I think the presence of BOTH Gaspar and Matt on Sunrise with 5 hours to go makes it very unlikely that all three are scum in a scum ploy.
So I am actually leaning toward Sunrise being less likely scum, but I still need to read a bit more on him to make sure.
I don't completely agree, I wouldn't make it past a good scum team (like Novice/Sunrise/Gaspar/Mattimeo in this hypothetical case) to randomly go 2 vs 1 on one of them and switch off near the end of the day.
(March 1st, 2015, 04:40)novice Wrote: Finally, how do you know that Mattimeo has said "just take me out whenever" to his scum buddies?
I think at least two people have noticed that Mattimeo has done things like that in the past. He could also have told his team to have one of them voting for him early just in case.
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BRick said " this game" though.
I have to run.
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(March 1st, 2015, 04:51)novice Wrote: (March 1st, 2015, 04:40)novice Wrote: Finally, how do you know that Mattimeo has said "just take me out whenever" to his scum buddies?
And perhaps more importantly, if you believe that's what happened, why was Q scummy for starting a last minute wagon on Q?
Also this. Should read "on Zak" of course.
I have to run.
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FWIW I think the fourth scum is Dr. Saul. I don't think that's the main discussion point for tomorrow, but just in case anyone is wondering how the world makes sense with me as town.
I have to run.
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(March 1st, 2015, 04:03)novice Wrote: The other thing to notice is four townies on Dr. Saul, and two scum voting elsewhere.
Here's the thing about that though. Day 1 townies have no info. Scum do. Townies all on one person like that doesn't mean as much as scum on one person. Scum have knowledge. Additionally, If I'm scum and I see a bunch of townies jumping on another townie that means I'm free to sow suspicion on another townie and try to get a race between other townies. Reinforcing a bunch of townies on Saul doesn't do as much to help the scum cause.
Your opinion that Saul is 4th scum is noted however.
Let's examine that real quick in terms of the Day 4.
Gazglum opines on Gaspar, gets killed, Sauldicator leads the day with a vote on Gaspar and then never changes his vote. I get on Gaspar as well, then Brick has his claim. Sauldicator does not move of off Gaspar. If Sauldicator is scum, wouldn't he be a little more free to vote around? I honestly feel that without Sauldicator's support I wouldn't have been able to sway the town into ignoring the Brick claim for the moment. Why would scum agree to that?
Additionally, If Saul is scum and Brick is scum, he knows going into Day 4 that Brickscum will run his gambit. Would he not be better off waiting until the gambit is live to post? If you, novice, are not scum, then why wouldn't he vote for you instead? He's been voting for you in previous days. If Brick is not scum, then again scum Saul would would do anything but vote Gaspar right?
I admit to occasionally being suspicious of Sauldicator, since I can never be 100% sure, but it is simply unfeasible to me for Saul to be scum after Day 4. I don't know if Gaspar gets lynched without him.
BTW I'm very glad people listened. We're in a much better place than if we had gone after novice or Brick. So thank you town.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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