I came around playing the turn this morning. All in all I have to compliment Ichabod for his strategy so far, I do not know if he planned this setup from the beginning but choosing GotF and then pushing out 2 settlers and maybe even more to aggressively settle your neighbor is a strong opening, especially on a Pangea map with a corner position where his only direction to use these cheap troops is against us.
I hope we will be able to land the first Religion before he attacks us as that should roughly equalize his current production advantage for military units.
He can now use 3 citites to pour out units but if we manage to hold onto Shido this would probably set him to far back economically to catch up with the others. I believe he will use a mixed approach with another Settler from Guardian and units from the other 2 cities and could try to go for another forward settle on our C4 spot. We need to prevent that from happening and thus need to keep a look on units passing to the N of Shido.
A unit placed on the hill there should be a good idea for multiple reasons and we should likely go for that spot with our next settler.
Let us dive into the turn, thank you for taking over for the weekend Adrienier
Turn 38 - Operation Three Archer Deterrent (TAD)
As discussed we start the turn by telling Ichabod that he is settling to close, if he settles another city close to us we might get a Casus Belli against him. It also shows him that we are paying attention and are preparing for whatever his planning to do. Hopefully this will get him to slow down his aggession towards us and we will be able to reach DotF on time.
I also saw that Rowain has good relations to Ichabod meaning they probably traded with each other and likely in Ichabods direction as he has the smiley face but Rowain does not have it for the moment.
Rowain has 50 gold fewer than last turn and Ichabod also misses 10 gold so I believe he got a 50 gold loan from Rowain and invested that into a tile buy, which I cannot locate for the moment.
Maybe this worked the other way around, you can check next turn if Rowain bought a horse tile at his city we can see the border of.
He likely had to offer 2 gold/t for 30 turns to Rowain to get that loan and this I sadly did not check during my turn but you could check next turn.All in all this is not too good news as Ichabod being supported from the current Banker of this game, Rowain, will mean that it will only get harder for us.
Scorewise Ichabod gained a small advantage in comparison by his opening, as we are about to finish another tech and civic next turn, we should take the lead position again.
His military is still at 88 so no new units finished last turn. After playing a test game I assume that he either has 3 Warriors and 2 Slinger + Scout or 4 Warriors and 1 Slinger + Scout for the moment. Maybe there is even an Archer in there reducing his number of Warriors further?
4 Warriors could actually threaten Shido at the moment if they all go for it even with a Warrior inside. Luckily at least one of them is 7 turns away from it at the barbcamp. We need to have a defensive force capable of keeping Shido unoccupied. My feeling is that 2 Archers should be sufficient and 3 quite safe for defending the city as long as we can keep it unoccupied.
The forests to the W of Shido are not helping at the moment as they block shooting lanes and provide cover to Ichabods troops. We need to get rid of them at some point, but do not have time to build a Builder for the moment so we have to live with them.
The horse tile would benefit us with another turn of forewarning (I marked the given sight in purple) on top of a good tile for Shido. However we will need 60 or 90 gold for Archer upgrades and are currently at 60 gold, so I think we can only buy it if we are able to clear at least one barbarian encampment for its 50 gold.
The Defense of Shido
I marked a potential positioning strategy utilizing the River and the hill in order to defend Shido. I believe necessary are the red Archer and the blue Archer to keep the two green marked tiles safe as long as possible. The yellow Archer would be a huge improvement of safety on that front.
The
blue Archer would control the N and see any approach from All Along early enough to respond accordingly, I marked his field of fire in dark blue and his expected sight in light blue, but I am unsure about the light blue part. The good thing, if my light blue sight assumption is correct, is that we would have sight on All Along and the Horse tile, thus knowing when he will have access to that horse resource.
The
red Archer controls the forests to the W and the southern tiles beneath it. It has a quite strong defensive position due to the river and Ichabod likely coming from the W. Due to Shido being adjacent it could fastly shift into Shido to defend any attack from the N as well.
The
yellow Archer would provide firepower to the S and control the southern access better as well as support the main attack direction covered by the red Archer. It also has a good withdrawal possibily by going to the E and further covering the two green tiles and its original position. All units attacking it would have to take at least 2 shots from this Archer and the red Archer while they move backwards.
All positions defensive boni have been marked in the map as tiles individual defensive bonus from the expected direction of attack, so a hill for the blue Archer and a hille and a river crossing bonus for the other two.
TAD calculations
Please note that all above numbers are estimated averages. Each Archer has a base defensive strength of 15 and likely have time to get a shot into any attacking Warrior before he can attack us. For the sake of security and easier calculation, yes I am lazy right now, let us assume full health Warriors attack our Archers on their positions.
Warrior vs Archer on hill / hill + river
20 vs 15 +3 / +8 = ~30 damage / ~25 damage
Warrior with Battlecry vs Archer on hill / hill + river
20 +7 vs 15 +3 / +8= ~42 damage / ~ 35 damage
We will hit PP on turn 48 at least a couple turns before Ichabod will manage to do so, so we could pick Oligarchy to further reduce the damage on our Archers.
Warrior vs Archer on hill+ Oligarchy / hill + river +Oligarchy
20 vs 15 +7 / +12 = ~ 27 damage / 22 damage
Warrior with Battlecry vs Archer on hill+ Oligarchy / hill + river +Oligarchy
20 +7 vs 15 +7 / +12 = ~ 37 damage / 30 damage
On the other hand our offensive will look the following, please note that we are practially guaranteed to get first full health shots at enemy Warriors, besides he has an Archer himself shooting first from flatland.
Archer vs. Warrior on plains / in forest
30 vs 20 / 20 +3 = ~45 damage / ~ 40 damage
Archer vs. Warrior with Tortoise on plains / in forest
30 vs 20 +10 / 20 +13 = ~30 damage / ~26 damage
Again on turn 48 we will get access to Oligarchy and could use it
Archer with Oligarchy vs. Warrior on plains / in forest
30 +4 vs 20 / 20 +3 = ~52 damage / ~ 47 damage
Archer with Oligarchy vs. Warrior with Tortoise on plains / in forest
30 +4 vs 20 +10 / 20 +13 = ~35 damage / ~31 damage
Conclusion for TAD
We have a clear advantage here as we outdamage him and have the further benefit of not being damaged back in return as we use ranged attacks. My assumptions calculated tentatively, as we did not see any Warrior with a promotion on his side yet and our Slinger has already a promotion although it is Garriosn and will only benefit us when in Shido itself.
I believe we should get out 2 Slingers next and send them to that region in preparation to be upgraded, as the second Slinger would finish one turn after Archery will be researched, we either delay Archery by one turn or let the last Slinger auto switch to an Archer and finish it one turn later. That saves us 30 gold and comes shortly before we can switch to Conscription to save money on the Archer maintenance. I adopted the planning accordingly.
The biggest danger is for Ichabod to show up with Horsemen in the next 20 turns, we need to figure out if he has a 2nd horse resource at his capital and if not when he builds an encampment to be able to build these guys.
I checked and confirmed that we are currently the only one with GPP, we have 24 turns to go until we hit our religion if nothing changes. With DotF we should be actually able to repel even a Horsemen attack with Archers and Warriors. We need to get a shrine in Kikyo to buy a Missionary or build a HS at Shido to get it to our religion there as fast as possible.
We will have to live with the possibility that the Religion spreads to Ichabod eventually and thus give him the same benefit for his cities with our religion. At least that is the way I believe it works and it would be great if anybody can confirm or test that.
I was able to micromanage Kikyo back to its standard tile layout and it will still grow next turn, there seems to be a small difference between my spreadsheet and the game for the food calculation as well.
I also put EE for research so it will be finished next turn together with AH. We might have a small loss here as I do not know if the culture research or the inspiration will be counted first, bit is a fraction of 1 culture we are loosing worst case.
The Scout will move E and seach for Bacchus and the end of the Pangea there. I intend him to try to pass S of the hills in order to save some time and catch more ground but feel free as you like.
Sadly I moved my Slinger S to scout the tundra a bit the last two turns and now it has to take the long route to Shido. It should arrive in about 7 turns and wll be able to do some more scouting on its way.
The backfill city we marked looks better than thought if we place it one to the E. It would have the TFDeer and some TH and THcopper to the S in its thrid ring as well as the GH to the N.
Its main weakness will be its food supply but it can share a part of Kikyo's farming triangle and use the Swamp and the GCow.
At the english Border, Ichabod is currently not taking the barb camp as he likely fears that we will snipe it from him. I moved my Scout on its path and we might consider staying around the camp to threaten the snipe longer or we can move teh Scout to uncover Ichabods capital. It then can either stay around to provide intel or move NE behind Stockholm and search for Rowain.
I moved the Warrior to the PF so you can actually choose to use him instead to get that intel on Guardian if you'd like. Having him there actually gives us some nice additional intel on the situation W of Shido and I am startiing to look for more tiles where we could place lookouts later on.
Here is a score overview I will try to do it each turn from now on to better track the game's progress. Sadly the extended view does not fit on one screenshot.
Good luck with the upcoming turns Adrienier