Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

For starters, I'm currently weighing this scenario. 

If CFCJesterfool says anything in the diplo thread about my aggressive war dec, do I reply?

Your main danger in this war is reputational. Materially you're not risking much - perhaps a chance that he might surprise and trap one of your galleys with his own navy (I haven't seen the domination scores in a while, so I'm not sure how much everyone is fielding at the moment). Well worth the risk in the short term. 

In the medium term, though, CFCJesterfool is going to be infuriated, and I worry about the consequences down the road - even a crippled enemy can still do you harm (PBEM2 example: Singaboy, even though he was a full age behind you in tech, was able to pull your army away from the decisive front just long enough for Alhambram to sneak the game-winning missionary through). So, is there a way you can mitigate that in the diplomacy thread if he says anything? Admit the opportunistic snipe, but work towards a productive way forward between the two of you? You're not completely crippling his chances to win, so self-interest should hopefully win out.

[oledavy]

I agree with you that long-term poisoning the well between me and him is the biggest cost. He has posted in his thread since he played his turn, but not in the diplomacy thread, we'll see if he does anything later. 

For those lurking, the main reason I deemed this not the foremost concern was because preliminary scouting makes it look like he will be my primary competitor for land. I will have a little competition with the Vikings in the northeast, but he will likely remain oriented eastward. Woden is distant and not a major concern. With that in mind, conflict with the Spanish was likely inevitable. Pushing him back now and slowing down his farming will benefit me long-term and likely give me a leg-up on settling the islands between us. Possessing is 90% of the law in most Civ games, but with Defender of the Faith, it's a really big deal for me. All I realistically need is an archer, galley, and a missionary charge each to hold even really aggressive cities, for some time at least.

[Ituralde]

That was a brutal raid. Very well executed. I never knew galleys were so dangerous to cities. How much difference did the Japanese +5 Strength give you here?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Hope you have fun watching the eclipse, Dave, and that the traffic isn't too bad. 

I'm fortunate enough to live right in the path of totality, and I took the day off work months ago, so I just have to stroll into the backyard (a nice high point overlooking a good chunk of the town) and enjoy the view. Should be quite a show, if it's not cloudy...

[oledavy]

That was a brutal raid. Very well executed. I never knew galleys were so dangerous to cities. How much difference did the Japanese +5 Strength give you here?

It made a difference, although my success was really predicated on a combination of factors. 

A big thing of note was that alone among my opponents, Spain has not built a galley yet. That meant his city-strength was a mere 10 instead of 15. Alternatively, if he had had a warrior in the city instead of a slinger (as Jpper007 does with his latest city), I also would have reconsidered the move). As it happened, the weakness of his cities, combined with the lack of a strong garrison, and the strength of divine wind, was what allowed me to pull of my attack. 

I think you need advantages like this to pull off a naval attack though, as your biggest obstacle will be your inability to put the city under siege combined with your inability to heal. It means you need to hit hard and fast. It worked out well here though 

Now we see if the diplomatic fallout is worth the advantage it gained me. 

Hope you have fun watching the eclipse, Dave, and that the traffic isn't too bad. 

I'm fortunate enough to live right in the path of totality, and I took the day off work months ago, so I just have to stroll into the backyard (a nice high point overlooking a good chunk of the town) and enjoy the view. Should be quite a show, if it's not cloudy...

Thank you! It was a lot of driving but it was definitely worth it for 2 1/2 minutes in the totality. Hope you had a good show yesterday and enjoyed your three-day weekend!

[oledavy]

Turns 60-63

So, if it wasn't already obvious from my previous post and CFCJesterfool's post in the Diplomacy thread, I took Pizarro: 



And burned it to the ground: 



He counter-attacked the following turn with his newly upgraded archer, damaging a galley, but giving it enough XP to promote. I gave it the +1 movement promotion so it could explore faster - a move I immedietly regretted when I found my path blocked by Hong Kong's galley: 



Still, thanks to Divine Wind I still can overpower it. My ship will just have to limp back home to heal afterwards instead of exploring. 

Abroad, Singaboy finished an encampment: 



Archduke still doesn't have a single district completed, unless I am missing something. Him and the Vikings did jump out to four cities though. I'm very impressed that the Vikings jumped from 2-4 cities in such a quick manner actually. 



Meanwhile, Archduke declared war on the elusive Libson. It could just be a worker steal, or it could be something more....



Only time will tell.  

The other big international news is that the Vikings founded their religion. 



It feels like he's going to go really hard on Holy Sites this game. Time will tell if that ends up being a solid move or not. I am a little bummed he landed Wats - but realistically grabbing it and the other three beliefs I wanted before anyone else could have a go at them was never going to happen. 

Closer to home, I became Jerusalem's suzerain. 



And the plan to use Jesuit Education finally came to fruition on t63. 



15 turns until I have libraries in all three cities. Thanks to the Maritime Industries enhanced chop in Ceres, I was able to sink 88 hammers directly into the campus and knock it down to a three-turn build that will complete next turn. 

My priority now is Recorded History for Natural Philosophy. With 9+ in adjacency bonuses from campuses once Callisto's campus completes, I will be able to boost my science in a big way. I'm already ahead of everyone except Woden and the unknown Singaboy. It seems likely finishing my last campus, getting two more libraries out, and getting Natural Philosophy will put me in the lead in SPT.

I also now have four harnessed luxuries for the biggest possible amenity benefit in all of my cities: 



As a final note: 



Completing a campus got me an envoy with Toronto. So, I'll get some free hammers from there when I turn to a Granary, monument, and watermill in the coming turns. 

My priority at the moment is getting settlers out of Ceres and Ganymede and staking a claim to some of the contestable islands to my east and south. My military is moving into position to escort them. 

I'm pretty happy with how this early game has gone, I must say. I got my religion and desired beliefs without too much trouble, and at this point, I have more or less rectified my science problem. I have a very strong base of infrastructure from which to expand. The key focus now will be expanding as fast as possible while balancing investment in builders, military, and infrastructure. All in all though, I'm pretty optimistic about things going forward 

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm already ahead of everyone except Woden and the unknown Singaboy. It seems likely finishing my last campus, getting two more libraries out, and getting Natural Philosophy will put me in the lead in SPT.

I do want to caution about this sort of thing, because it seems to be a common fallacy I see players make - don't compare where you'll be in a couple of turns with where other players are now. So many times I've seen statements (not necessarily from you) "sure, Alhambram has a higher military score now, but in a few turns I'll have cranked out some more guys and I should have the upper hand then!" or "Sulla currently is leading, but I'm upgrading a bunch of archers in the next few turns so I should be safe." What this ignores, of course, is that the other guy is also frantically expanding and upgrading as quick as he can, and for all we know Woden and Singaboy are boosting science with laser-like focus right now too. Let's see where we are in a few turns. I'm a natural pessimist, which I think balances your optimism well. :P

However, I think overall your optimism is warranted. The city snipe went well and should put Jester on the back foot while settling the out islands. The Vikings apparently pumped out a settler apiece from their cities, so while in theory they could be churning out more I'm not sure they want to take the hits to population and infrastructure development that would entail, so there may be a small pause there before their next round. I think this means you have an edge in the settlement race for the contested territory. 

In the short to medium term, what threats are there? I don't think any of your cities are vulnerable to a galley snipe, but what about a growing alliance between the Vikings and Spain? If you expand rapidly in both their directions, coupled with the Sack of Pizarro, it could galvanize both of them against you. I think diplomatic efforts in the medium term ought to be directed at maintaining Viking friendliness or at least neutrality (since Spain is probably not going to feel too kindly towards you regardless) to prevent a combination.

[oledavy]

I'm already ahead of everyone except Woden and the unknown Singaboy. It seems likely finishing my last campus, getting two more libraries out, and getting Natural Philosophy will put me in the lead in SPT.

I do want to caution about this sort of thing, because it seems to be a common fallacy I see players make - don't compare where you'll be in a couple of turns with where other players are now. So many times I've seen statements (not necessarily from you) "sure, Alhambram has a higher military score now, but in a few turns I'll have cranked out some more guys and I should have the upper hand then!" or "Sulla currently is leading, but I'm upgrading a bunch of archers in the next few turns so I should be safe." What this ignores, of course, is that the other guy is also frantically expanding and upgrading as quick as he can, and for all we know Woden and Singaboy are boosting science with laser-like focus right now too. Let's see where we are in a few turns. I'm a natural pessimist, which I think balances your optimism well. :P

However, I think overall your optimism is warranted. The city snipe went well and should put Jester on the back foot while settling the out islands. The Vikings apparently pumped out a settler apiece from their cities, so while in theory they could be churning out more I'm not sure they want to take the hits to population and infrastructure development that would entail, so there may be a small pause there before their next round. I think this means you have an edge in the settlement race for the contested territory. 

In the short to medium term, what threats are there? I don't think any of your cities are vulnerable to a galley snipe, but what about a growing alliance between the Vikings and Spain? If you expand rapidly in both their directions, coupled with the Sack of Pizarro, it could galvanize both of them against you. I think diplomatic efforts in the medium term ought to be directed at maintaining Viking friendliness or at least neutrality (since Spain is probably not going to feel too kindly towards you regardless) to prevent a combination.

I do want to say I agree with your point generally, I think its sound. That being said, I have trouble seeing somebody else getting +9 in adjacency bonuses or getting three libraries out early using faith, due to both relying on my Civ UA and a belief I took respectively. But, point well taken   The others may devise other methods of boosting their science similarly. 

Turn 64

Perhaps a better way to put it would be that I expect to stay competitive for quite some time. I already am almost neck and neck with Woden with only 1 library down and a campus (the +4 one) left to go up. 



Preventing a Vikings/Spain alliance will indeed be my long-term problem. It's something I'm keeping a very close eye on. That being said, with Defender of the Faith and Divine Wind, as long as I don't completely neglect military, I should be fine for a long time. Quadriemes are about to come online for everyone, but they only have a range of 1. This means my cities with 1-2 coastal tiles will be hard to take, and at the moment, I don't feel very threatened by anyone. I don't think anyone could boat me out of the fog at present. The Vikings have Bronze Working, but Spain still is at the bottom of the domination standing. It's also notable that the Vikings have yet to crack 10 SPT or get their Political Philosophy Government. Spain, however, is making strides in that area, adopting Oligarchy. 



Are they expecting more fighting? I would have thought CR would be much better for their district heavy start. 

They also finished a Commercial Hub. Sweet, this means I can lock one in at a nice discount sooner rather than later, and continue constructing the central highland urban sprawl. 



The biggest concern at the moment continues to be figuring out how to get two settlers out ASAP and get them across the seas safely and quickly. Archduke is wandering around with a galley that could potentially slow me down. For the moment though, things proceed smoothly. I'm also about to make my last contact: 



La Venta can see Singaboy, I can't. I'll be curious to see all his numbers. He continues to lead in science and culture. Also, notably, he has the strongest military in the game - a holdover from taking Valletta and fighting the Vikings I expect. Archduke has seemingly been mobilizing recently to match him. I hope sparks fly, Singaboy is a major long-term threat. 

For now though, I continue to live a relatively untroubled life on my island - finishing my second campus this turn for the Recorded History Inspiration (one I don't get very often). 



About halfway done to building the giant sprawling megalopolis I envisioned at the start of this game 

[Ituralde]

That last overview shot does look nice indeed. I didn't realize you weren't even using that many mountains to get your adjacency bonuses for the Campus(es?).

[oledavy]

Apologies to my Ded-lurkers and those following the game, I have been remiss in reporting the last few days. The academic year starting up, preparing for our vacation, and a host of other things on my plate has left me little time to report recently. Plus, the last few turns have often gotten to me in the middle of doing other things. My schedule has not fully settled yet, but I do anticipate getting back on track this week. 

Turns 65-69 Summary

Most of these last turns I played in a rush, on autopilot. I'm currently finishing up settlers and moving them to the islands. The bad news is that I really need more military to secure landing zones for them on each island against all the barbs. This may end up delaying their settlement. I'm seeing what I can work out. If I had been paying closer attention, I might have more pro-actively developed a plan to reduce any delays. As it stands, things may end up being very touch and go. Singaboy and Archduke wandering around with their galleys certainly isn't helping. 

I met Singaboy. He has nearly 18 culture, leading me to believe he prioritized monuments early and has a culture-producing natural wonder nearby. I don't know how he could muster so much otherwise. With the completion of my third campus, however, I am ascendant in science. Singaboy does seem, however, to be the serious long-term threat. 

It's increasingly looking like the civs in the game are breaking into two classes, those who are making more than 20 science per turn (Me, Woden, and Singaboy), and those who are falling behind on that score (Jpper007, Archduke, CFCJesterfool). It's far too early to draw anything conclusive from this seeming divergence, but it does roughly correspond with my general ideas of player skill. This is not to say that those of us leading in science aren't lacking in some categories though. I think I'm the last person at 3 cities, and Woden's culture is a pathetic 4 CPT last I checked. The only person who seems to have it all is Singaboy. 

We're been having some turn pace issues recently, with frequent missed turns from Jpper007. I imagine Singaboy is chafing quite a bit at this, and I have to admit its been irritating to me too. I liked the regularity of this summer, but half the turns miss and the other half get to me at an inconvenient moment after my play window. Hopefully Jpper007 gets things straightened out on his end relatively soon.