WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[novice]

Thanks Waterbat, and the url to the scraper is? I know it's been posted twice before, but I need the scraper to find those posts.

FWIW, Serdoa: I would have lynched Tasunke too. 90% is good enough, the main reason not to wait is to not risk a mislynch when we have a pretty sure lynch, and to get the information from the scum lynch sooner.

[novice]

BRick: Will items that are passed to a kill victim on the night of their deaths be mentioned in your writeups?

[Lewwyn]

I think you are dealing with confirmatin bias. You know now that Tasunke was a villager. The village did not. Speak for yourself about what you would do. I was going to vote to lynch Tasunke or Azza and I was pretty much locked into Tasunke. You're talking about a nonexistant scenario. The town was geared up to lynch Tasunke because he was caught red handed. He lied, I was going to lynch him. Are you honestly suggesting the town wasn't going to lynch him? Becuase you're fooling yourself if you think that. So given that, MJW did us a favor, it was pro-town IMO. I mean I don't really know what else to say.

Yeah, like I said, we certainly have a different view on that. I don't want to believe that villagers are really that lazy and dumb that they can't even realize that lynching their potential vig makes no sense if they can confirm with 100% certainty the next day if he lies or not.

And btw: How was Tasunke caught red-handed Lewwyn? He lied - but you didn't know that till he was shot.

Villagers are lazy.

I'll reiterate, I was going to lynch him. Tasunke claimed and there was a counterclaim. No matter if Azza is village or scum, no one was going to counterclaim unless they knew it to be true, IMO. To me it was apparent he lied. IE: caught red-handed.

Fake edit: I see uber has also explained this now.

[Lewwyn]

Scrapper:

http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww19/

[waterbat]

Also Azza - what was your reasoning behind using the picklock on Tasunke? I think that's a very high risk / low reward item to use, especially if you steal from a snitch.

Simple. He alluded to having a powerful item, likely the gun. If he was scum, it had to be taken from him, and if he was village, I didn't trust him to be able to use it effectively. I honestly thought he was scum based on how he'd been playing, and when catching him out lying I was certain of it, but apparently he was just playing a terrible village game...

I really wanted to come on and vote Azza. I don't buy this. I give Tasunke more credit though. Azza would trust himself to use it that much better than Tasunke that it was worth a steal? what if Azza scored and got the gun? wouldnt that lend some village cred to wolf-Tasunke? or leave the lockpick in

One small additional reason: I found myself as dragon adding "I honestly thought" or "Honestly," to a lot of my sentences. It was to the point where im like "someone is going to pick up on this and nail me" and i got paranoid about it.

BUT

Serdoa makes some good points and if MJWs "slip" is for real and he is using the foreknowledge that Azza is innocent......

Ultimately, if i was in MJW's scum shoes, there's no way I would shoot there unless instructed explicitly by my teammates.
a) I'd want to save it as long as possible - the endgame would be my target
b) I have no real pressure on me, so why expose myself thusly?
c) derail a very very obvious mislynch and give the village a second shot at getting it right?
d) i could always pass the tommygun if i thought i was starting to get some heat. (although i guess the rules might prevent this)

in MJW's village shoes:
a) i'd be worried about mis-shooting , Tasunke presented a clear target, unlikelily to be wrong?
b) given a chance to get the lynch out of the way and get 2 scum would be appealing
c) only ryan's been railing on me, so id worry about being night killed as a safe-ish kill for the wolves to make.


I think Azza is our best lynch.

[uberfish]

Yeah, but with that uncertainty AND the possibility to get confirmation without having to lynch either, why would you not wait till the next day? You might be right that village still would have lynched Tasunke though (I guess I would have been ignored as I was yesterday). But even than, I'd expect that someone having a gun would think a little bit longer about it and what could happen. I mean sure, if we lynch and hit the wrong target, oh well, it happens. But if he shoots and hits the wrong one? Even if the chance is only 10% that Azza was roleblocked or is scum, it should imo be enough to prevent him from shooting and risking two villagers (or three in case of a bastard GM) for no gain except 24h less discussion on Tasunke.

Well, a Tasunke scum flip would have given us a lot of information to use in the 24h of the rest of the day. Also saying "Azza or Waterbat should be shot" at night and then claiming to have shot Bigger looked very fake. And confirming Tasunke the next day if he somehow did have the gun would involve whoever had the gun having to claim, not a good thing. It would have been better to wait for a Tasunke post first though, since Tasunke himself might well have confirmed that he was lying and got rid of that 10%.

Where I do agree with you is that I don't understand MJW's position on Azza's alignment.

Also some gut feeling is telling me to vote zakalwe because of his list of 3 suspects from which he doesn't seem to care exactly whom is lynched.

[Ryan]

I guys I have a really bad head ache in my eyes and I just can't read . Il try reading in a while.

[Serdoa]

Ultimately, if i was in MJW's scum shoes, there's no way I would shoot there unless instructed explicitly by my teammates.
a) I'd want to save it as long as possible - the endgame would be my target
b) I have no real pressure on me, so why expose myself thusly?
c) derail a very very obvious mislynch and give the village a second shot at getting it right?
d) i could always pass the tommygun if i thought i was starting to get some heat. (although i guess the rules might prevent this)

I find that quite funny. Everyone states he would keep the gun till the endgame. Guys, two questions:

1) what good does you the gun if you do not reach the endgame?
2) what exactly does the gun change in the endgame that it does not change now as well?

I probably am blind, but I really don't see how the gun helps you in the endgame more than a "semi-confirmed" villager + a dead villager in the midgame.

Also for b) and c) the answer is easy: To get confirmed villager status. Thats much more important than anything else for wolves. With that, you win games. All that lurking isn't going to cut it in the end in a game with the possibility of several confirmed villagers. You NEED a "confirmed villager" yourself in the scum-team to win.

Anyhow, as I wrote earlier my reason to vote MJW is because questioned for the reason of his shot he explained it with knowledge that he only should have gained after he got the result of his shot. And that can only mean that he is a wolf that mixed up knowledge the village has with knowledge only the wolves possess

And honestly, if that is not reason enough to vote for him, than I don't know what is.

@uberfish

Well, a Tasunke scum flip would have given us a lot of information to use in the 24h of the rest of the day. Also saying "Azza or Waterbat should be shot" at night and then claiming to have shot Bigger looked very fake. And confirming Tasunke the next day if he somehow did have the gun would involve whoever had the gun having to claim, not a good thing. It would have been better to wait for a Tasunke post first though, since Tasunke himself might well have confirmed that he was lying and got rid of that 10%.

The part I have bolded is wrong. We do want the vig who shot Bigger to claim tomorrow anyhow. He should have given away the gun by then so we will only gain another confirmed villager. And we do want him to do that as early as possible, so that we don't waste time discussing his lynch or at worst even lynch him because he only claims with 2 hours on the clock left... also makes it easier to reread, because you can put more emphasis on the unclear players instead.

Therefore it would have been no issue to wait till tomorrow. We wouldn't have gone out of our way either. The claim should happen anyway. (And no, waiting to claim till the last day makes not much sense, as in a 2-2 situation for example, wolves would of course counterclaim, to at least keep a 50% chance to win. Or even worse would claim first.

[Serdoa]

To expand on my last answer to uberfish as I think he thought that I meant the new gun owner should claim: If no one had claimed tomorrow, we would have known that Tasunke speaks the truth and Azza lies. And the new owner of the gun would never need to claim. Only the old one, the one who shot Bigger. If no one claims that for himself, than Tasunke would be cleared.

[BRickAstley]

Official Lynch Vote Count

Selrahc - 4 - Ryan, Merovech, Azza, MJW
zakalwe - 4 - pindicator, Lewwyn, Qgqqqqq, uberfish
Azza - 2 - Mattimeo, waterbat
Merovech - 2 - novice, zakalwe
MJW - 1 - Serdoa

Players not voting: Selrahc

Regarding Items and Night Kills and such:

Give me a minute to look over what all has been brought up for discussion and then I will answer. Should be posted no later than an hour from now.