Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[scooter]

So, would you vote for Serdoa?

Maybe. I wouldn't like it, but I would consider it... He's very low on my list of suspects though. I just in general would guess that he is innocent, but I seem to be in the deep minority this game, and given my record this game, maybe it might be best if I went along with the crowd for once.

And my next question for you: why should I vote for someone else? I get that you want to believe that you're innocent. I'm not ready to believe that, in fact, I have you in the 70% guilty camp... you and Serdoa are the only two people I have at over 50%. But I get that you want me to see your innocence. What I don't see is who you want me to see as guilty, and why I should vote for that person. I think that conversation would be far more beneficial than our current back-and-forth.. both for me and the village.

See I'm in a bad spot though. The problem is that many people are so convinced that I'm guilty, that it's dangerous for me to turn around and accuse someone else, because I'll certainly get the vote for that person. I could accuse X person, but the problem is that I'll get the inevitable response of X person going "see! that means you're a wolf because only a wolf would accuse me!" which in general isn't very productive.

Oh screw it. I suspect Gaspar and haphazard the highest, in that order. I think we've covered to death why Gaspar might be guilty, mostly because he seems to be a little too trusted despite not really doing anything to earn that. The fact that Roland trusted him and that he defended Roland means nothing to me, as a wolf would do the same. In fact, the wolves would be the ones who knew for sure that Roland was innocent. Not saying that that's proof of Gaspar's guilt per se, but using that to defend him is weak. See the problem here is that by mentioning him, I'm darn near guaranteeing that he'll vote for me today (or has he already? I can't remember), so maybe you can see why I was just focused on defending myself. Plus I typed a lot of words defending myself, and quite frankly there wasn't time to sit and type out a big thing on who to nail instead of me.

There's also the reason I stated earlier - my fear is that some people (like possibly you, though I'm not sure) might be so sure that I'm a wolf, that anyone I mention as "we should lynch him" will become a guaranteed innocent in your mind, until you lynch me and find out you're wrong.

Haphazard is just a gut feeling honestly. He even admitted that he's purposely kept his head down this game, which just seems like a weird thing for a villager to do. To me, his case is different from a Dantski or Cull, as both of them are generally not on the forum frequently anyways. Haphazard on the other hand is very active here, and despite that, he's stayed awfully quiet. That rings alarm bells in my head, as it confirms that he's purposely keeping quiet. I can sort of understand that if you are a power role in the early game, but in the late game, there's no reason for a villager to keep quiet and rarely voice his opinions. I have less conviction about haphazard than I have about Gaspar though - because as I said, it's mostly a hunch. I feel like if he got some lynch votes, maybe he'd finally start talking.

Back to the Serdoa question - if you are convinced that either me or Serdoa (if not both) must be a wolf, I'd be willing to vote for him to prove my innocence. I believe him to be innocent, but I'm at the point where I have a "I don't even know anymore" feeling given how much I've been a poor judge of players thus far. So if your test for me is to vote on Serdoa with you, then I'll probably do that. Personally, I feel like it'd be a mistake to vote for him, but again, given how much I've struggled this game, I just don't feel good about my judgment anymore.

[scooter]

Back to the Serdoa question - if you are convinced that either me or Serdoa (if not both) must be a wolf, I'd be willing to vote for him to prove my innocence.

I'd like to retract this. We only have 2 mis-lynches left, and I'm not willing to burn one on a guy who I think is a villager. If that means I get lynched because of that, then fine, we can throw this game away. I'm just not going to have anything to do with it.

[Gaspar]

Oh screw it. I suspect Gaspar and haphazard the highest, in that order. I think we've covered to death why Gaspar might be guilty, mostly because he seems to be a little too trusted despite not really doing anything to earn that. The fact that Roland trusted him and that he defended Roland means nothing to me, as a wolf would do the same. In fact, the wolves would be the ones who knew for sure that Roland was innocent. Not saying that that's proof of Gaspar's guilt per se, but using that to defend him is weak. See the problem here is that by mentioning him, I'm darn near guaranteeing that he'll vote for me today (or has he already? I can't remember), so maybe you can see why I was just focused on defending myself. Plus I typed a lot of words defending myself, and quite frankly there wasn't time to sit and type out a big thing on who to nail instead of me.

I mention this actually not because it mentions me, but is a classic example of how all you ever do is spin. So a wolf would defend Roland? Well, we know for a fact that at a bare minimum, more wolves voted for him than to save him. He had 3 votes to save him. Sareln, dead villager. Dantski, scried villager. Me. So yeah, looking for the wolves in Roland defenders is solely a case of trying to fit the evidence to your argument, which is mostly "Gaspar has some votes and I don't want to get lynched." Its very similar to you argument from yesterday, which was "Roland has some votes and I don't want to get lynched" and the day before which was "I don't have any votes yet, but I know they're coming, and I don't want to get lynched."

There's not a substantive accusation of any sort in there, just a couple of hedged nothings. Hell, point a strong bloody finger at anyone, me if you must, but try and find some real actual evidence to support your claim, as opposed to just trying to put doubt on everything. Doubt favors the wolves. Conviction favors the village.

[scooter]

I mention this actually not because it mentions me, but is a classic example of how all you ever do is spin. So a wolf would defend Roland? Well, we know for a fact that at a bare minimum, more wolves voted for him than to save him. He had 3 votes to save him. Sareln, dead villager. Dantski, scried villager. Me. So yeah, looking for the wolves in Roland defenders is solely a case of trying to fit the evidence to your argument, which is mostly "Gaspar has some votes and I don't want to get lynched." Its very similar to you argument from yesterday, which was "Roland has some votes and I don't want to get lynched" and the day before which was "I don't have any votes yet, but I know they're coming, and I don't want to get lynched."

You accuse me of spin and then you do the same thing? Re-read my post. I never said that defending Roland = wolf. I said that saying "I defended Roland therefore I am innocent" is a bad defense. Huge difference.

[scooter]

haphazard

This seems to be pretty dead today, and haphazard has once again chosen to keep quiet and not weigh in today. I can only guess that he's still trying to maintain a low profile, especially since his name keeps coming up. As a result, I'm voting for him, as that seems to be the tried-and-true way of getting someone to talk. I may very well change my vote if something more convincing happens, but for now, I can't help but wonder why a villager would need to intentionally keep quiet so much.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Just sitting down for ice cream so I can't get too detailed yet. But this sucks:

1)Haphazard votes Gaspar
2)Nice Guy votes Scooter
3)Serdoa votes Nice Guy
4)Scooter votes Haphazard

I had expected, after we combined for more than 10 posts last night, that Scooter and I would get more attention. I'm not surprised that Serdoa voted for me - after all, I'm the last villager really sticking my neck on the line trying to get someone lynched. But I had expected the third wolf to come out and either actively attack me or try to save Scooter, and the other villagers to actively come out against Scooter.

But no such luck. I'll do some reading and be back with more thoughts after ice cream.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Back to the Serdoa question - if you are convinced that either me or Serdoa (if not both) must be a wolf, I'd be willing to vote for him to prove my innocence. I believe him to be innocent, but I'm at the point where I have a "I don't even know anymore" feeling given how much I've been a poor judge of players thus far. So if your test for me is to vote on Serdoa with you, then I'll probably do that. Personally, I feel like it'd be a mistake to vote for him, but again, given how much I've struggled this game, I just don't feel good about my judgment anymore.

First, I completely get where you're coming from in the "don't even know anymore". I have the same feeling, and it sucks.

I laid out my case against you last night. I really don't know what else to say. You've answered all of my questions, and your answers only make me more comfortable with you as a wolf. I suppose the only question I have left: what's your favorite moon phase to howl at?

[haphazard1]

haphazard

This seems to be pretty dead today, and haphazard has once again chosen to keep quiet and not weigh in today.

I did weigh in today -- in fact I was first to cast a vote, right at the start of the day.

I can only guess that he's still trying to maintain a low profile, especially since his name keeps coming up. As a result, I'm voting for him, as that seems to be the tried-and-true way of getting someone to talk. I may very well change my vote if something more convincing happens, but for now, I can't help but wonder why a villager would need to intentionally keep quiet so much.

Why not stay quiet?

We have reached a point where no one is going to accept anything anyone else says. Every possible point -- voting records, statements made, how much someone is talking -- has been described by various people as completely wolf behavior and completely something a wolf would never do.

Wolves have perfect voting records, except when they have horrible voting records.
Wolves stay quiet and keep their heads down, except when they talk a lot.
Wolves accuse proven villagers of being wolves, except when they accuse fellow wolves for cover.

Unless there are more special roles out there, no one actually has proof of anything. Because everything is proof of both A and ~A, simultaneously.

We are all going with feelings and instinct at this point. I have gone with mine and voted to lynch Gaspar. You are obviously free to disagree, and vote to lynch me if you want. Nothing I say -- or don't say -- is going to persuade anyone now.

Why not stay quiet?

[Irgy]

Ok everyone, we need to wake up. This kind of despondency is absolutely what the wolves want from us. Give up in despair and vote for whoever we don't like while they pull us all apart. I won't pretend I haven't been a bit too quiet myself, because I have, but at least I haven't been despondent.

Anyway, here's my summary of the interesting votes. The arrows are groups that have been acting in each other's interests. Basically, when someone was the second candidate, the people who's votes helped them avoid the lynch are on the right:

Code:

Selrahc mayor: Serdoa

!Sandover: Dantski, scooter, Serdoa, Gaspar, Rowain

Gaspar <-> Lewwyn, scooter

!Selrahc: scooter, haphazard1, Mr Nice Guy, Serdoa

!Uberfish: Lewwyn, Mr Nice Guy, scooter, Serdoa

Serdoa <-> Dantski, scooter, Gaspar

Lewwyn (mayor) <-> Rowain, Dantski, scooter
Dantski (mayor) <-> Irgy, Mr. Nice Guy, haphazard1, Serdoa

scooter <-> Irgy, Mr. Nice Guy, Lewwyn, Rowain, haphazard1, Serdoa

So, things of interest; Serdoa is the only surviving player who voted for Selrahc as mayor. All the others have died as villagers, so if Serdoa is a villager, it means not a single wolf voted to put the devil in as mayor. A rather bizarre situation.

As far as groups go, there is one that particularly stands out to me:
{Serdoa, Scooter, Mr Nice Guy}
Both the others voted to save scooter, scooter voted to save Serdoa, all of them tried to save both selrahc and uberfish. It's the best group of three I can find in there anyway. Interestingly they're all making a point of voting for each other today too. Is their voting record, if anything, too suspicious? Possibly, but as soon as you start making that argument you invalidate it. If being too suspicious is a defense then we throw away our best tool for catching wolves while at the same time letting them run rampant in protecting themselves under the cover of "looking too suspicious". So I'm not buying it personally.

So who to go for first? For me, Serdoa is the more suspicious of the three, and possibly the most informative to find out about in the unfortunate case where we're "on wood" so to speak in needing to get 3 from 3 in the remaining votes.

Let's just hope I'm right

[Gaspar]

Ok everyone, we need to wake up. This kind of despondency is absolutely what the wolves want from us. Give up in despair and vote for whoever we don't like while they pull us all apart. I won't pretend I haven't been a bit too quiet myself, because I have, but at least I haven't been despondent.

Couldn't agree more here. This thread is damn near depressing at this point.

So, things of interest; Serdoa is the only surviving player who voted for Selrahc as mayor. All the others have died as villagers, so if Serdoa is a villager, it means not a single wolf voted to put the devil in as mayor. A rather bizarre situation.

I think there's some value in what you did there. However, I do think the Selrahc mayor vote is pretty solidly obvious why wolves would not make that vote - there was a lot of talk of scrying the mayor, so the last thing they want is the Devil scryed.

With regards to the rest of your post, I think there's a lot of interesting questions there, though I don't expect any real answers to anything at this point. I think that Serdoa and scooter being the only living players who were on the wrong side of wolf vote is interesting. It doesn't necessarily implicate them, but perhaps we should all just wait to see who they vote for and vote for someone else.

I'll follow up in the next post with my thoughts.