Posts: 748
Threads: 6
Joined: Dec 2010
Gaspar Wrote:However, I do think the Selrahc mayor vote is pretty solidly obvious why wolves would not make that vote - there was a lot of talk of scrying the mayor, so the last thing they want is the Devil scryed.
In fact Selrahc made this argument in his own defense at one stage. But why run for it in the first place in that case? It was Selrahc who put himself forward, not someone else. It seems like very inconsistent play by the wolves.
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
Irgy Wrote:So, things of interest; Serdoa is the only surviving player who voted for Selrahc as mayor. All the others have died as villagers, so if Serdoa is a villager, it means not a single wolf voted to put the devil in as mayor. A rather bizarre situation.
As far as groups go, there is one that particularly stands out to me:
{Serdoa, Scooter, Mr Nice Guy}
Actually, I think you just cleared Serdoa. I don't think any of the wolves would have voted for Selrahc to be mayor. He was the Devil! He didn't want to be in the limelight. If the wolves wanted a wolf mayor they would have picked any other wolf than him.
Now you bring up a good point about MNG. Its made me a bit suspicious especially since he he now has his sights set on Scooter and Serdoa too. I've been as guilty of suspecting them as anyone, moreso even, but now I think my arguments and my views are being used against me. WHo is doing that most? With Roland MNG went straight with me. With Scooter and Serdoa now. Irgy I urge you to switch off Serdoa whom you have just made a convincing case in my eyes as innocent.
Mr. Nice Guy
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
More on MNG, I haven't really been considering him as a suspect as much to this point. Why? Roland was convinced he was a villager. But even though Roland was innocent, he also was convinced Uberfish was innocent. I am definately reevaluating.
BTW this hasn't been considered since the first day, but Mr. Nice Guy is a seemingly auspicious name for a wolf. And look, Ug the Barbarian was an innocent. What are the chances F&I chose Ug as an innocent and MNG as a wolf based off names?
The two masons were Luddite and Lewwyn. Luddite and I were contemplating why we were chosen as masons, and one of our (for serious) thoughts was that both our names started with L.
Sorry if thats all meta, but it sortof makes sense to me outside of the other evidence as well (that evidence being the voting history.)
If you're looking for a trio, Irgy, I would also suggest looking into the MNG and Haphazard connection.
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Well, I'm not entirely sure Selrahc knew he was the devil when he started campaigning. If you recall from the beginning, there was confusion as to whether the role existed at all. Given f&i's inconsistencies in this game, its entirely possible that he changed his mind and/or didn't tell Selrahc until after the game started. This could just be my conspiracy theory loving self of course, but I've learned to expect the worst when it comes to the rules of this game. Anyway, just a thought.
More to the point, last night period, Dantski and Sareln made what I believed to be accurate depictions of who can possibly be a wolf at this point. Sareln's was more cogent, naturally, but the point was the same.
So let me reanalyze what's left:
Confirmed or heavily likely villagers: Lewwyn, Dantski, Irgy
Remaining suspects: Serdoa, scooter, Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, haphazard1
Given that Irgy was owl scryed, we can't be 100% certain of course, but we have so little to go on, I have to go with something. Unfortunately, we have almost nothing to go on from today, other than MNGs back and forth with scooter. I don't know what the answer is, and I don't much trust anyone at this point. I have to come back to Sareln's post in the middle of the night:
Sareln Wrote:A Plan:
This boils the group down to the four of Scooter, Mr. Nice Guy, Haphazard, Rowain. We can hang all four of these before losing, but I would suggest we hang Scooter last and Rowain first. Since that's my personal "gut" (aka worthless  ) suspicion.
Serdoa, if I could remove Scooter from this grouping of possibilities somehow, Gaspar could take his place at the end of the line (the last hanging). I dislike how we've gotten to coinflip stage with the hanging of Roland, but them's the breaks.
So, Mr. Nice Guy, Rowain, Haphazard. I've presented a plan that guarantees your deaths but not the village's victory. I'd like to make it better and shift the odds more towards our favor. Why are you innocent?
I believe this post, combined with the fact that Dantski is absent and Lewwyn was so very wrong on Day 6, is what got Sareln killed. Specifically, he was the most right of the confirmed villagers. Given that, and given that Sareln gave his game life to post it, I find it particularly curious that most of the people suggested in made no effort to either a: clear their name or b: suggest an alternate plan. Unfortunately, we're dealing with player apathy as well at this point, I'd guess at least half the players would just call the game given the option.
Bottom line, Sareln was more consistently right in this game than any of us of who are left. So in the absence of evidence to the contrary I'm going to vote Sareln's vote. If it turns out the vote will be irrelevant and I see the computer before the lynching hour, I'll try to get back and change it.
Rowain
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
One other quick thing, MNG always proclaimed he was a villager. And he always said "plain" villager, he was very specific about not having any power roles, but Roland and I had suspected he had some other role and Roland even asked him point blank again because he though maybe he was making the distinction because he was the seer. But what if he was a wolf instead? Where we saw the careful delineation of villager, was actually an attempt to hide "WW role".
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Not that its all that hard to track at this point, but:
Lynch votes:
Mr. Nice Guy (2v): Serdoa, Lewwyn
Gaspar (1v): haphazard1
scooter (1v): Mr. Nice Guy
haphazard1 (1v): scooter
Serdoa (1v): Irgy
Rowain (1v): Gaspar
Not yet voting: Dantski, Rowain
Summary of Actions:
- haphazard1 votes Gaspar
- Mr. Nice Guy votes scooter
- Serdoa votes Mr. Nice Guy
- scooter votes haphazard1
- Irgy votes Serdoa
- Lewwyn votes Mr. Nice Guy
- Gaspar votes Rowain
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
Wow best Voting spread in the entire game!
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Lewwyn Wrote:Wow best Voting spread in the entire game!
Just proves we really have no flipping idea what's going on.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Posts: 748
Threads: 6
Joined: Dec 2010
Well a spread vote is interesting, but it also lets the wolves pick and choose their choice of bandwagon. I'm fairly happy with any of my three choices, so if others think Mr Nice Guy is a better option I'll go with that.
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
I was looking through Day 1 a bit and stumbled upon this gem:
Serdoa Wrote:Guys, 7 pages already? Our village is much more talkative as the last one it seems, will make it easier for us to win this 
As mayor I vote for Selrahc. No reason other then he (together with PB) got me to play FFH2. For the lynching... uh, Rowain. Uninformed votes are fun
Given the current lack of posting, I believe the irony is quite apparent.
|
