Civ4 AI Survivor Season Six

[Dark Savant]

Is Mansa so far the only Survivor contestant who won after losing control of his capital at one point?

No ... Wang Kon, season 3 troll game.  Didn't just lose his capital, but more than half of his core, ending the game with his capital in an ex-barbarian coastal city.

[Sullla]

Community predictions added to the Game Eight preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor6-8-preview.html






We had a clear favorite to win this game in Justinian who was the pick for about half of the overall contest submissions. Darius was the only other leader to receive more than a handful of votes as the rest of the field struggle to attact more than a handful of picks. The Runner Up category appear to be up for grab as usual with Darius, Justinian, Wang Kon, and even Hannibal receiving decent support. The two leaders that the community expected to be doomed were Zara Yaqob and Montezuma, with the pair of them topping the First to Die charts. As for the victory type, with four different Financial leaders in the game it was unsurprising that Spaceship held the overwhelming lead. We saw a Cultural victory type the previous week in Game Seven but there wasn't much support for that victory condition here.

Finally, here are some of the best/craziest written predictions about what would take place during the game. There were many other excellent entries but I had to pick and choose my favorites to keep this from running on too long. Thanks again for the submissions!

delan: Who Montezuma attacks will decide this game. Peace weight says he's likely to maul Zara (who's covered in woods) or Victoria (who also has to worry about Hannibal to the west), but he's also likely to found a religion and get into it with Justinian too. Justinian, meanwhile, has iron but no horses, meaning he'll need to make a play to get cataphracts online. Hannibal's 2nd ring of cities are buried in jungle, so he's not exactly guaranteed to gobble up Darius and emerge out of the west. Darius needs to expand to lock down metals, and that's not always a guarantee for the AI, and he's also likely to get boxed in if he doesn't take up expansion by means of the pointy stick. I like Wang Kon a lot, as he's far from Monty and has a lot of space, but I don't know. Trying to predict exactly where Monty's aggression will go is like trying to predict the flight path of a fruitfly. Going to gamble that Justinian figures it out somehow, with all that land, and Wang Kon Financial/Alives his way into 2nd.

Sir Colville of the Dale: Hey Zara! The map editor called. He says Turn 80 wasn't fast enough!

Bobchillingworth: Ignore Hannibal's hilariously bad start, Justinian lacking horses, and tired Wang Kon memes; the question here is, does Monty win with his god-like start, and if not, who gets his land? I'm actually going to throw caution & common sense to the wind and pick him to win, obviously by domination. Zara (FTD), Vicky, Justin, and Wang are all going to have to bite it for that to occur, and Hannibal is almost certainly going to spend the game as a basket case given his desperate lack of food pre IW & Calendar, so Darius for second by virtue of being the furthest from Monty, plus some minor bet-hedging on my part.

NotSpamBot: So I can already feel that Hannibal and Darius are gonna have a cage match out there in the west with Wang Kon and Victoria maybe participating from time to time. That locks them in as the two bottom tiers civs of the game that keep going to war with each other and who will accomplish nothing but driving up the war counter. Out in the east we have Zara starting right next to Montezuma. They will also likely share different religions, so that is going to be the first war of the game. I do honestly hope that Monty will repeat Alexander's perfomance but I don't believe it. Given the peaceweight situation I believe this psychopath is the First To Die of the game. So, who will win? I'll go with Victoria. Partially because this season is this season, but also because she is a fantastic techer when she isn't attacked, and given that Monty is turned firmly on Zara, Justinian is on the other side of the globe from her, and that she can readily get 1-2 allies against Hannibal she should be left alone. For second... I have gone with The Wang, but it could easily be Justinian. All of this will go out of the window if either Montezuma or Hannibal manages to go beast mode and relies on The Wang to behave, but honestly? I would take that over me not getting any points anyway.

Khnud: I expect Vicky and the Troll King will both get squeezed on territory and attract the early wrath of the low peace weight leaders. Wang doesn't have easy access to iron, so he'll fold first. Monty will probably get a lot of territory, but with him being Monty he won't use it to his advantage. I suspect this will be a game where the leaders who can stay out of early wars (and stay clear of Monty!) can safely tech away to space. Justinian and Darius are the two leaders best equipped to do just that.

Cyneheard: Hannibal has zero accessible food outside the capital as Bob pointed out, so he’s lunchmeat. Neither Monty nor Justinian have great long-term prospects given the setup, so I’m expecting Zara to take advantage. Wang Kon should be able to prevent a Dom victory, so going with the Spaceship.

BledDest: Was very tempted to vote for Vicky, since this is a season when most games are won by extremely unexpected leaders. Instead, after Mansa's triumph in the last game, I'm going to vote for someone who has shown some competence throughout the previous seasons, and I choose Justinian as the winner. Yes, he has no horses in his area of the map, but he will almost certainly either trade for them or capture them from someone else. As for the second place, Hannibal looks good since not only he is similar in peace weight to Justinian, but also not likely to found his own religion and screw with the Byzantines. On the other hand, Monty looks like a good choice for FTD: firstly, he will most likely found a religion and get into a conflict with Justinian, and secondly, he is completely nuts and will most likely get into a conflict with two or three other leaders. Domination looks like the most expected outcome, but not a fast one since most leaders in this game tech slowly and won't be able to launch fast conquests...Oh wait, there's Wang Kon in this game as well. Ignore everything I've written here, neither logic nor common sense can help us predict this insanity.

eyser24: My mind says Darius, but my heart says Justinian. Thankfully I can indulge both here, and im choosing Justinian 1st Darius 2nd. Darius's start just seems very good on the surface. The main reason I can think of for not choosing him for either 1st/2nd is his reputation from past performances, which is definitely a poor metric. It is worth noting that he doesn't have many rivers down there, so its not the best commerce start, but its more important for him though that he just gets a lot of cities and doesn't have a lot of warlike neighbors, and thats what he should get. I think Justinian also has a pretty good start and weak neighbors. He really needs to get a religion, there are 3 leaders with mysticism on this map so I am a little worried here, then he should target Wang, Zara, or Montezuma and should be the favorite to win all of those conflicts. This game is pretty interesting since I think first to die is totally up in the air. I am choosing Zara because he is just awful and Montezuma is next to him.

Zalson: Monty has the best start. He's going to have size 7 cities out of the gate when no one else has any happiness resources. He also has lots of resources in the Tundra spots and the south is lush too. This is Monty's time to shine.

T K: Instead of trying to justify how Darius ~couldn't possibly~ mess up a corner spaceship win in a match with Monty and the Wang, here's why I don't think Zara will be FTD like in his last game: 1. Way more room for everyone to expand (Zara's S5 match was very cramped) so less incentive for early warring. 2. Alexander's Phalanxes come at Bronze Working and eat AI Chariot spam for breakfast. Monty's Jaguars come at Iron Working and the AI struggles to use them effectively. 3. High chance Zara either gets Monty's religion and the Aztecs ruin Vicky's game instead, or Zara enters a religious alliance with Justinian and they 2v1 him. 4. Wang is no peacenik and Vicky can dec at pleased, so both are likely enough to dogpile on Monty if Zara so much as survives long enough for them to fill their areas. 5. Vicky can easily be 2v1'd by Hannibal & Monty (and maybe even Wang if border tension is high enough). Way crazier stuff would have to happen for Zara to experience the same. So, if Zara doesn't die to barbs by turn 70, he might just have a decent chance at reaching the Wildcard game (hey, even I'm not willing to back him for points after last time!)

Slashin': Darius couldn’t have asked for a better diplomatic situation, with a weak Hannibal and troll kon as the vanguard while he sits back and techs to space. I think it all comes down to how effective Justinian becomes, and whether he can leverage his terrific fertile starting position to crack the tough Korean walnut or capitalize on a Monty dogpile to expand into an unassailable position, before darius becomes the master of his own peninsula.

RefSteel: Montezuma goes on a rampage against [RAND {LIST_OF_PLAYERS}] thereby destroying their chance of winning, and putting their most-opportunistic mutual neighbor into pole position for the game. Wang Kon throws a monkey wrench in the works by some completely unpredictable but utterly hilarious move, and then Victoria wins from her foodless wasteland somehow because Season 6.

Bernn: Okay, if Darius can't get it done this game then there's something seriously up with the guy. He's got a lot of room to expand into, a good if not amazing capital site and his only aggressive neighbor is a stunted Hannibal who's absolutely drowning in jungle. Of the six other leaders, a whopping four of them start with Mysticism so we'll almost definitely see some early beakers wasted on failed religious races, slowing Darius's possible rivals even more. Justinian has a great record and a lot of weight to throw around, but his starting position is lackluster. And even assuming he wins his religious race and makes an ally of Zara, mad dog Montezuma and the troll gatekeeper Wang Kon will limit his ability to strike Darius in the west. The Persians this game have an almost ideal setup: insulated from cross-map aggression, stunted or otherwise peaceful neighbors, and most of the other leaders start in the cramped and chaotic east. Darius will be able to do what he likes best: sit back while growing and teching in peace.

shallow_thought: None of the combinations of position and leader are very exciting here. I'm going to go with the "standard" - for this season - "opposite corner" pairing, particularly as that's the pool leaders. I'm going Hannibal to win, because I think that Justinian will be squeezed by Zara culture early and is going to suffer from lack of horses as well as his tech-driven slow start. If Hannibal was on the coast with seafood this would be easier, but I still think he'll out-perform Darius. I also have a soft spot for Hannibal after he got me a top score in a game a few seasons back. Vicky is too close to Monty and I think peace-weight will drive him against her first: along with her natural passivity, this makes her FTD - although Zara is even closer, and Monty is ... unpredictable. Both "victims" have iron at their capitals, so who knows? Throw in the troll king and anything could happen. Not confident, but gotta pick something.

thestick: Wow, peace weight differences, much? This looks like a case of whether Justinian (and Zara, who I'm betting gets Justinian's religion) can take out Monty and one of Wang Kong/Victoria to get to Hannibal/Darius before one of them can blast off into space. Still going to barely say that Justinian manages to take out Wang Kong early enough to make it work, but I'm not so confident about it. Another big wrench is Montezuma. He's like the Hordes in Europa Universalis: endless warring early, but free real estate once he's been beaten. Which one of Victoria or Zara picks up land from him will probably be decisive.

ZigZagZone: Should you ever base your picks on the behavior of Monty? I will try, as I hope he does not attack Vicky at first, but harrass someone else. So, I think Wang Kon will get one religion and there's gonna be only one Eastern religion, maybe a second later, leading to waring and stagnation there. Meanwhile, the troll's religion will forge a strong alliance of the peace weight 8 leaders, and basically doom Hannibal (if he can't join in the religion fast enough). Now, the question is: who has the best land? Forget Monty, Monty is crazy. So, next best is Vicky, and she has all the right econ traits. Clearly, this is the season of the 0 point leaders, so this will be a shoo-in, right?

SirSystemError: IT'S HIS TIME. MONTEZUMA'S REVENGE. HE WILL FINALLY WIN A GAME, RUNNING THROUGH THE COMPETITION A LA ALEXANDER. SULLLA WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO MUTE THE GAME AUDIO AND BLARE THE MONTY ON THE RUN THEME AS HE RIPS THROUGH THE COMPETITION. THEN WANG KON WILL TROLL EVERYONE BY HELPING HIM ACHIEVE A DIPLO VICTORY AT THE LAST MOMENT.

BohemianSpoonyBard: As a fan of Troll King, I have just decided to roll dice for my suggestion. Let the unpredictability begins!

Game Eight Picking Contest Entry Form

Hope to see a bunch of you on the Livestream this upcoming Friday, July 2nd!

[Fluffball]

I'm legit surprised Justinian is the fan favorite in this one. He's a dominate AI but I'm just not loving this situation. The capacity to be out-teched it sooooo high in this game, pretty much anyone need just survive with ~ 5 or 6 cities..

[Charriu]

Also cataphracts love riding horses.

[pindicator]

I'm legit surprised Justinian is the fan favorite in this one. He's a dominate AI but I'm just not loving this situation. The capacity to be out-teched it sooooo high in this game, pretty much anyone need just survive with ~ 5 or 6 cities..

I wanted to pick a FIN leader, but their land is just so bad this game.  Rather, it does not get good until after IW.  Meanwhile Justinian and Monty have so good land, and of those two there is only one leader I trust.

[Brian Shanahan]

Monty's going to win this one at a canter, isn't he?

[pindicator]

Monty's going to win this one at a canter, isn't he?

With my luck this year, yes

[Fluffball]

Argh, I went WK/Darius, super early spaceship. Almost went Vicky/Darius and nailed it, but I just thought WK would deal with Monty better and Vicky would get dragged down slightly.

[Brian Shanahan]

Monty's going to win this one at a canter, isn't he?

With my luck this year, yes

Well a booby won the prize, but it was the wrong one.

[Fluffball]

Monty's going to win this one at a canter, isn't he?

With my luck this year, yes

Well a booby won the prize, but it was the wrong one.

The odds that a financial leader won this were just overwhelming. I mean ANYONE other than monty or justinian gets more like 8 cities and they win. People were really REALLY underestimating financial/builder when there's nothing in the way.