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[PB61] Lurker Thread

vanrober fires such a torrent of diplo spam people may tune it out at some point.

I feel a bit for JackRB. He was minding his own business eating the straggler and then suddenly knights and he is dead.
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I don't understand why van doesn't just go the obvious route and swallows Bing, but I guess telling him so would be an overstep. It doesn't look like Josh could impede it, or could he?
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(September 29th, 2021, 05:51)vanrober Wrote: Lots of activity in josh thread and he didnt play yet... I have a bad feeling...

Some of the most active discussions in threads are when we go completely off-topic and start recommending books to each others.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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The level of paranoia that Civ triggers in these games is amazing.
Mods: RtR    CtH

Pitboss: PB39, PB40PB52, PB59 Useful Collections: Pickmethods, Mapmaking, Curious Civplayer

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Someone on these forums wrote it best: these long MP games lead to attachment and attachment leads to pain. Forgot who.
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This PB is on it's way to become a 3 player PB. Here is the T150 report. As always all the data can be found here: PB61 Tracking

General state of the game

Before we start some notable observations in the past 50 turns:
  • JesseL war against Joshy failed and lead to JesseL's own demise at the hand of Joshy and Vanrober
  • Bing prevailed against rekenner and even tried a comeback. But now he's facing the super power Vanrober without any meaningful way to come back.
  • Rekenner died after his failed all out attack against Bing.
  • JackRB had a great game until he was a victim to bellarch's surprise attack. Currently on his way out.
  • Vanrober was able to profit from two weak neighbors (JesseL and rekenner) and now looks to swallow the next weak victim Bing.
  • Joshy is working hard on economic recovery after his successful war against JesseL. His only option right now is to grow tall.
  • bellarch managed to land some wonders namely the Jewish Shrine, Hanging Gardens, MoM
  • Meanwhile Vanrober also build some more wonders in the Colossus, ToA, Parthenon and Notre Dame. Parthenon is most likely the best addition to his specialist economy.
First of all the city count
  1. vanrober = 24
  2. bellarch (IMP) = 19
  3. joshybravo693 (IMP) = 18
  4. BING XI LAO = 9
  5. JackRB (IMP) = 7
  6. JesseL = 0
  7. rekenner (IMP) = 0
And here are the current amount of pop across those empires at the T150 mark:
  1. vanrober = 203
  2. joshybravo693 (IMP) = 151
  3. bellarch (IMP) = 123
  4. BING XI LAO = 55
  5. JackRB (IMP) = 21
  6. JesseL = 0
  7. rekenner (IMP) = 0
We see that vanrober is getting into a stronger leading position. bellarch has yet to finish his conquest and recover economically from it, while Joshy already did that.

Like I already said in the beginning I'm also tracking the actual gold and science output of the players. But some additional info is needed. Like in previous PBs the gold number does not include maintenance cost of any kind and the science output does not include KTB and prereq bonuses from other techs. Reason is that I want to compare these numbers to the commerce output to see the effect of modifier buildings and in case of science I want to be able to compare the science output between players and KTB and prereq bonus are a distraction in this case. Both numbers do include extra gold/science from specialists, modifier buildings and other stuff I haven't mentioned so far. These actual numbers are most interesting when we add up all the numbers of each turn. For the current turn and the players potential income the virtual numbers are still more useful. These virtual numbers were my previous tracking and they treated the slider as always being on 100% gold or science. At first I want to look at the current turn numbers of the virtual gold income (all players running 100% gold). The 100% science value is in parenthesis
  1. vanrober (ORG) = 579 (680)
  2. bellarch (FIN) = 493 (452)
  3. joshybravo693 = 460 (527)
  4. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 176 (227)
  5. JackRB (ORG) = 92 (111)
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 0 (0)
  7. rekenner = 0 (0)
Another indicator of vanrober's increasing leading position. From these numbers it looks like joshy's economic recovery isn't going that well compared to a player like bellarch, who is at war. But joshy has the upper hand in terms of science. It helps to know that joshy is running bureaucracy since 14 turns and this most certainly will help him. He's also the only one in that civic.

But as we know there are more things at play namely maintenance. FYI info this is the sum of all maintenance factors (city, unit, supply and civic).
  1. rekenner = 0
  2. JesseL (PRO) = 0
  3. JackRB (ORG) = 43
  4. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 121
  5. vanrober (ORG) = 229
  6. joshybravo693 = 262
  7. bellarch (FIN) = 306
Once again we see the power of ORG dropping vanrober with 24 cities way below his rivals with 18 and 19 cities. At the same time vanrober also has 50 more pop to work with. From the espionage tracking and his reporting we also know that he has a lot of courthouses in play. From the espionage tracking I know that joshy also build some courthouses which is the reason why he's now paying 96 gold in maintenance compared to bellarch with 154.
With the maintenance at hand we can now include that into the gold income to see how much gold everybody could make this turn:
  1. vanrober (ORG) = 350
  2. joshybravo693 = 198
  3. bellarch (FIN) = 187
  4. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 55
  5. JackRB (ORG) = 49
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 0
  7. rekenner = 0
If it wasn't obious now it is. vanrober despite his own confidence is in the leading position.
Now let's see how good the player did across the whole span of 100 turns. For this we look at the accumulated actual science numbers, which I already have described above:
  1. vanrober (ORG) = 14382
  2. bellarch (FIN) = 10126
  3. joshybravo693 = 9583
  4. JackRB (ORG) = 9006
  5. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 2619
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 2329
  7. rekenner = 1074
Yet more indicators for vanrober's position. At the same time joshy and bellarch are somewhat on equal levels of development
But what exactly did the players do with all those beakers. Well fear not here it is:




Vanrober managed to keep his lead in tech. Some notable discoveries. Jack had Engineering and therefore access to pikeman some 5 turns before the war. Would he have been aware of the attack he might have been able to muster a better defense. bellarch researched Compass likely going for Optics sooner. He will be sad to discover that there is nothing out there for him, but at least the extra circumnavigation trade routes will help him together with the Great Lighthouse.
So far it looks like all relevant players are on equal military tech level, but Vanrober is working on changing that.

Financial Bonus

Here I collected all the extra commerce a player (would) have gained if he was working Financial tiles. For example if you worked a river hamlet tile you normally gain 3 commerce and 4 commerce with FIN. In this case my tool notes down 1 extra commerce. You will also find that I am tracking the CtH implemenation of Financial as well as the normal BtS implementation for comparison. Keep in mind that this is the first time we are playing with the newest FIN nerf, which was that water tiles only give extra commerce with a lighthouse present.
Looking at the current turn numbers first:
  1. vanrober (ORG) = 102
  2. joshybravo693 = 91
  3. bellarch (FIN) = 68
  4. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 40
  5. JackRB (ORG) = 23
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 0
  7. rekenner = 0
We usually expect FIN players to do better in this category. With that in mind I am somewhat dissapointed in bellarch. Now we can expect that he's doing worse then a bigger empire (Vanrober), but that he's doing even worse then an equally developed non-FIN players is a bad sign.

Here the accumulated numbers:
  1. joshybravo693 = 3336
  2. bellarch (FIN) = 3276
  3. vanrober (ORG) = 3079
  4. JackRB (ORG) = 3023
  5. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 1332
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 109
  7. rekenner = 0
More indicators for what I've already said above. Stronger specialist economy focus for vanrober.

Some lurkers may ask themself, how much would the players have made without the lighthouse-FIN-nerf. For this it is worth looking at the numbers from the previous FIN version, which did apply extra commerce for land tiles at 3 and water tiles at 2. Here the accumulated numbers with the lighthouse variant in parenthesis for comparison:
  1. JackRB (ORG) = 3685 (3023)
  2. joshybravo693 = 3636 (3336)
  3. bellarch (FIN) = 3436 (3276)
  4. vanrober (ORG) = 3403 (3079)
  5. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 1646 (1332)
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 610 (109)
  7. rekenner = 22 (0)
Even though this is a map with less focus on water the players managed to run some more water tiles. Now in fairness to bellarch we also have to consider that vanrober most likely is working more water tiles now with the colossus.

Lastly how sever is the recent nerf at the moment. Here the comparison for this lighthouse implementation compared to BtS (delta, reduction in percent):
  1. JackRB (ORG) = 1544 (-33.81%)
  2. vanrober (ORG) = 1224 (-28.45%)
  3. bellarch (FIN) = 867 (-20.93%)
  4. joshybravo693 = 733 (-18.01%)
  5. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 691 (-34.16%)
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 624 (-85.13%)
  7. rekenner = 51 (-100%)
Like with other PBs the reduction is now in a more sensible area with 18%-28% for the three relevant players. Can it be that

Protective Bonus

For our new players here I'm tracking the extra commerce you would get from the PRO trade bonus. This actually a bit tricky when foreign trade routes come into play later. Imagine this simple scenario you only have trade routes to only player and are PRO. Without foreign trade route your trade route makes 2 commerce. With a foreign trade route you would also get 2 commerce. In this scenario my tracking tool notes 0 extra commerce from PRO, because you would get the same commerce from foreign trade. Of course this gets a lot more complicated with bigger empires and for the most part the player can't know how much extra commerce they made. Therefore I calculate the players trade income two times. Once with the PRO bonus and once without. The delta is the actual benefit you get from the trait.
With this in mind let's look at the current turn numbers:
  1. JackRB (ORG) = 14
  2. vanrober (ORG) = 11
  3. joshybravo693 = 2
  4. bellarch (FIN) = 1
  5. BING XI LAO (FIN) = 0
  6. JesseL (PRO) = 0
  7. rekenner = 0
After a good first 100 turns for PRO it now declined hard in usefulness. I attribute this to two factors: The map and the game situation. The map as we know is somewhat unique as it does not provide for any ICTR. With only 1 island for everybody PRO would have done better. The other factor is that all the three big relevant players are at peace with each other since the beginning of the game and have open borders. Due to that their foreign trade modifier is better and most trade routes are filled up with foreign trade.
We will look at the accumulated numbers at a later point. For now I want to briefly talk about the difference between this 100% trade PRO and the previous 75% trade. We now see some difference between them, but because the PRO numbers are so low due to the unique situation I don't want to interepret too much into them.

Misc

I'm tracking a lot more but there is not enough information there to justify an own paragraph. Therefore a little summary here:
  • More great people have entered the world with vanrober (4), joshy (3) and bellarch (2)
  • I already mentioned that joshy is running bureaucracy for 14 turns now. Bellarch and vanrober both switched into vassallage.
  • bellarch and joshy also both switched into hereditary rule.
  • Slavery is still the dominant civic outside of golden ages, but vanrober started to discover his SPI abilities and is switching between slavery and serfdom periodically.
  • Organized Religion is the dominant religious civic. It's interesting that vanrober doesn't has switched into pacifisim yet with his specialist economy.

Comparing traits

The main goal of all this tracking of course is to compare the economic traits related around commerce income or maintenance reduction. So let's do this:




As you can see I changed the layout a little bit again in prepation for the new production tracking. I already color coded the 4 economic traits so that you easily see, who uses which trait. Except for FIN every trait has a hammer bonus so I included all of them. But I'm still disappointed in how this looks. I like how the 4 economics traits have light colors that are easy to distinguish. But with 7 more traits I'm running out of these numbers. If anybody has a better idea how to do this I'm all ears.
  • For a long time AGG has been the worst economic trait. This has changed in this PB, but like I already said above this is due to other unique factors.
  • Other then that we see the usual with FIN and ORG being way better then PRO and AGG and FIN being better then ORG
  • But at least in the case of vanrober FIN and ORG are very close together.

The last thing I wanted to mention is that if bellarch and joshy don't get a sudden case of concediaritis, then this might be a game that may come closer to the domination victory condition then any other game in the recent past. Stay tuned for the T200 report.
Mods: RtR    CtH

Pitboss: PB39, PB40PB52, PB59 Useful Collections: Pickmethods, Mapmaking, Curious Civplayer

Buy me a coffee
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For what it's worth, vanrober's understanding of the turn split rules is the same understanding I came to when I read them. If that's not the intended meaning (attacker can choose first or second, regardless of when attacking, provided there's no double move), then the language should probably be updated for future PB games.
Games: PB62, PB63
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Maybe it could be clearer, but if you play in the first half and claim the second you've already violated the split.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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When was the last game with this much drama about turnsplits?

I think it's in Joshy's rights to claim the second half, as that wouldn't break any of the rules.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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Hm, I disagree. That can probably be abused.
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