[Spoilers] Victoria of Korea - Mardoc and SevenSpirits

[SevenSpirits]

Well the diagonal line of squares theory does have a problem, namely not enough land tiles.

Basically if everyone really has a square that big (with the peak plus sign in the middle of it) then it only leave 40ish tiles per player for bridges. That's about half as many as the diagonal line theory needs. (And it can use even more!)

But on the other hand, it's also not enough for the disorganized mishmash theory! I mean it's ~20 tiles each for the N-S and E-W connections and a quick glance at what we've uncovered will tell you that way more than that are required to have as many paths as there are, crossing as much distance between platforms as there is. I am inclined to assume the diagonal line theory for now since it at least gives us some useful info (which is at worst random info in the mishmash theory) and because it explains such things as:
1) Everyone was told to go SE-SE with their scout.
2) The number of land tiles is divisible by seven.
3) The only visible candidate for a repeated tile pattern looks to be completely identical, including surroundings and orientation.
4) Lurkers didn't kill Ruff before the game started due to map unfairness. (Though who knows, maybe they roughed him up and we just have no way of telling.)

Anyway, the obvious solution is to build Stonehenge and center that dang world map.

For the next move I am actually inclined to go NE with the scout. Reasons:
1) If there is in fact that player square to our NW, the fact that they didn't send a scout past our scout makes is more likely they sent their scout west as well. Which means their warrior is more likely to go east as well. If we go NE and their warrior goes E, we meet. If their warrior goes west instead, it's more likely their scout went east and will hit us at some point in the near future.
2) Our scout uncovers territory which we hypothesize is not a duplicate of territory we've already seen, unlike a NW move.
3) Our scout can then continue NE and see what is above us, which will give us a lot of useful information. If desired, our scout can then also explore the north side of our little terrarium for a second city site.

Novice: meeting someone should immediately double our map knowledge!

[Mardoc]

Well the diagonal line of squares theory does have a problem, namely not enough land tiles.

Basically if everyone really has a square that big (with the peak plus sign in the middle of it) then it only leave 40ish tiles per player for bridges. That's about half as many as the diagonal line theory needs. (And it can use even more!)

But on the other hand, it's also not enough for the disorganized mishmash theory! I mean it's ~20 tiles each for the N-S and E-W connections and a quick glance at what we've uncovered will tell you that way more than that are required to have as many paths as there are, crossing as much distance between platforms as there is. I am inclined to assume the diagonal line theory for now since it at least gives us some useful info (which is at worst random info in the mishmash theory) and because it explains such things as:
1) Everyone was told to go SE-SE with their scout.
2) The number of land tiles is divisible by seven.
3) The only visible candidate for a repeated tile pattern looks to be completely identical, including surroundings and orientation.
4) Lurkers didn't kill Ruff before the game started due to map unfairness. (Though who knows, maybe they roughed him up and we just have no way of telling.)

I agree that it's hard to get around the tiles being a multiple of 7. That, in fact, is the strongest evidence for your position. It could be a coincidence. Because if there's one thing we know about Ruff and the RB community, it's that they do things haphazardly What I wouldn't put past Ruff would be to deliberately add an island or tile here or there to make it come out as a multiple, just to confuse us.

But that does support the #3 position. 1 and 4, though, could easily be explained by each homeland square being identical, but surroundings differing. Sure, there's a little imbalance if one neighbor is to our north and another is to our east, but that's minor, especially with rails. Then the positioning of the squares can be arbitrary.

Anyway, the obvious solution is to build Stonehenge and center that dang world map.

Now there's a benefit to Stonehenge I hadn't considered!

For the next move I am actually inclined to go NE with the scout. Reasons:
1) If there is in fact that player square to our NW, the fact that they didn't send a scout past our scout makes is more likely they sent their scout west as well. Which means their warrior is more likely to go east as well. If we go NE and their warrior goes E, we meet. If their warrior goes west instead, it's more likely their scout went east and will hit us at some point in the near future.
2) Our scout uncovers territory which we hypothesize is not a duplicate of territory we've already seen, unlike a NW move.
3) Our scout can then continue NE and see what is above us, which will give us a lot of useful information. If desired, our scout can then also explore the north side of our little terrarium for a second city site.

Here, I disagree. First, and most important, I think finding a duplicate would give us a LOT more information at this point than non-duplicate info. That could finally end the debate on world shape, let us know which way to go to find neighbors and their land, and the like. Plus it would likely multiply our information by 7, instead of just adding to it.

Second, now that borders have popped, we ought to be able to contact anyone by a 2-turn diversion from the rails to the hill that originally revealed them. Only a scout can do this in one turn, however; warriors would require 4 (and I'd be happy never training a scout, honestly). This seems much more likely to me than stumbling across a unit, if contact is our goal. Consider all the branches we've already run across, then add in the strong possibility that our neighbors aren't also exploring the rails with two units. My first inclination was to keep the warrior near home, and it could also be argued that keeping the scout near home is important for city site scouting. Heck, you're already suggesting bringing our scout home for that. I'd be surprised if even half our competitors have both units on the rails, and I bet at least one has neither unit out there, preferring to explore near first. Honestly - predicting where their units are is a fool's game, in my book. We already tried that and came up short, and I don't see any new info that would let us predict them better.

But I also think that the land is more important than the contacts at the moment.

Finally, the information on our homeland, I expect to discover with warriors, both the one who'll finally make it to the rails this turn and the ones we train while building a settler. Our scout has already travelled far; he's the one who makes most sense as a long, deep traveller.

If the square really is 19x19, the warrior ought to be able to circle it in 6 turns, and reveal all but the inner 17x17 square (unless there's more lakes, in which case he'll show us even more). That leaves just 289 tiles to defog. We've already got 50 revealed; if we assume a low average of 3 tiles/warrior/turn (moving in a straight line), then we only need 80 warrior turns to completely defog our square. After scouting the edges, I calculate us having 24 warrior-turns of exploration before the settler moves (warriors exploring starting turns 9, 16, and 20). Plus our border expansion turn 12 ought to give us another 20-some tiles immediately.

And this is with pessimistic assumptions! A zig-zag on a warrior ought to be good for 4 squares/turn, not three; better terrain near the rails or exploration path cuts it down a lot as well, and we just need one good site by then, not complete knowledge.

If our goal is to have perfect knowledge of our square by the time our settler is done, then yes, we need the scout (and probably should have turned around a while ago), but with a more minor goal of finding a good 2nd city spot, we should be fine without him.

Novice: meeting someone should immediately double our map knowledge!

You think? I'd be reluctant to let someone know that both units are away from home, and I can't think of a way to share our knowledge without also sharing that tidbit. Nor can I imagine getting their info without having to give ours.

A couple turns from now, once we're building a warrior anyway, then I'd be happy to share and share alike, but for now I'd as soon keep our cards close to our chest.

[SevenSpirits]

Lots of good arguments.

Here, I disagree. First, and most important, I think finding a duplicate would give us a LOT more information at this point than non-duplicate info. That could finally end the debate on world shape, let us know which way to go to find neighbors and their land, and the like. Plus it would likely multiply our information by 7, instead of just adding to it.

Well, moving NE would give us a small but sufficient amount of duplicate info, and it would also give new info, and position our scout to get lots of very strong new info on the next turn. Moving NW gives ONLY duplicate info.

I'd be reluctant to let someone know that both units are away from home, and I can't think of a way to share our knowledge without also sharing that tidbit. Nor can I imagine getting their info without having to give ours.

A couple turns from now, once we're building a warrior anyway, then I'd be happy to share and share alike, but for now I'd as soon keep our cards close to our chest.

Oh, I think we're REALLY safe there. Even with rails it would take their warrior forever to reach our capital. Plus, our opponents are probably desperate to explore, too. Plus, we don't have to say where our own warrior is since he hasn't even uncovered any information yet. Plus, it would be trivially easy to sign a short peace treaty with whomever we are sharing information with.

The actual flaw in the "meet someone, double our knowledge" plan is that maybe they don't want to tell us, because they are paranoid or already found someone else to exchange info with. The latter is all the more reason to try to find people quickly!

[Mardoc]

Oh, I think we're REALLY safe there. Even with rails it would take their warrior forever to reach our capital. Plus, our opponents are probably desperate to explore, too

Well, on second thought, you're probably right here. Anyone we meet probably can't get to us before the worker finishes at this point anyway, even if they beeline. And what with border expansion, we'd have at least three turns warning, even if they did choose to be hostile, which is a heck of a gamble in the ancient era.

And sharing info is the first step in potentially making an ally, in addition to just relieving our curiosity.

I'll have to think about NE. Worst case it only puts us 1 turn behind a westerly path, and best case we discover that we didn't want to go west anyway , so maybe that'd be worth doing anyway. I admit, I hadn't really considered that knowing that corner might be enough info

[novice]

Oh, diplo is allowed. Let's find someone to talk to then. NE with the scout is okay with me.

[SevenSpirits]

Since I signed in to see the save had been available for 5 hours and knowing I only had 15 minutes, I decided to play it. Hope you don't mind, Mardoc.

Since you seemed possibly accepting of a NE move and novice OK'd it too, and I still thought it would be a lot better, I went ahead and did it.



Exactly as predicted, except for two things:
- Dye in place of Incense. Interesting.
- It kind of looks like people might not have northern and eastern rail borders! I don't have time to do the math but this probably solves the not enough land tiles problem.

Also moved warrior SE and set research back to Agriculture as discussed. In demographics, everyone is back to working the corn tile and three of our six opponents are on a second-row tech. Got to go now.

[Mardoc]

Thanks for grabbing that, actually - as I mentioned in the e-mail, I'll have unpredictable access for the next week or so. Best not to hold up the game. Besides, you clearly signed up as a teammate, not a lurker.

Besides, it turns out you were right about NE being the better move! That definitely suggests a diagonal line of squares, and it even put the scout in a better position. I think I'd move the scout next to the forested hill - it costs us two turns, but it ought to grant us a contact with someone. I'm hoping for Adlain and not plako!

After that, it's a debate between exploring our square and going on to find another player; I think on balance it makes sense to go with your earlier suggestion of back to our square and make sure we've got enough information for a good dot map - imperialistic means we'll get settlers faster than I'm used to, so city site information is of extra importance. That shouldn't take us too long, and then we can send all our explorers out at once to finish exploring the map.

I bet most or all of those 2nd tier techs are also Bronze Working, unless Ruff mixed up the other resources too. Without any requirement for AH or masonry for a resource, bronze seems like the clear choice, for security if nothing else!

[SevenSpirits]

A couple more things:

1) I recounted the tiles with the assumption that the edges of our 15x15 platform are the actual edges on the north and east sides (i.e. no rail border) and the result is extremely close to 366 (the number of tiles per player). (We still don't know how many lakes are on the west edge so I don't have an exact number, but it's clearly within the expected range.)

This means that (other than the top diagonal path which I didn't bother to fill in on my extrapolated drawing) the diagonal platform layout is pretty well confirmed. Surprisingly there aren't any non-player platforms, just our starting lands and a bunch of bridges.

2) Our tech path, in retrospect, was AMAZING for counter-C&D. We switched from a prereq tech to a non-prereq tech on the exact turn that a bunch of other people finished their non-prereq tech and moved to a prereq-tech. I bet this screws up at least someone for a while, if anyone else is trying for that.

3) As long as no one meets us before our next turn, I agree with making a detour to the hill. Specifically SW-W-W-E (.8 movement) NE (1) NW (1). Might as well use our extra railroad moves. Maybe we run into the owner and don't have to go to the hill. Our warrior could go straight east, northeast, or southeast. I'm not sure what is best.

[novice]

This means that (other than the top diagonal path which I didn't bother to fill in on my extrapolated drawing) the diagonal platform layout is pretty well confirmed.

Yeah. Good call, SS.

[SevenSpirits]

Received our first diplo message!

SS,

You probably don't realize it, but we met yesterday.

This map is pretty bizarre. Not sure what to think of it yet.

Is your scout as far away from home as mine? I think I am on the far side of the world from where I saw you.

GES

I plan to try catching him on chat and most likely exchanging map intel. I will also explain to him that "SS" is not a very good abbreviation for "SevenSpirits and Mardoc" no matter how you order them.

This raises the question of how we want to split the diplo burden. I think we can probably wing it for now but we might want to be more organized later, since consistency in foreign policy messaging seems critical.

As for actual policy, my view is we should just try to be generally friendly and generous at this stage, and also try to get everyone to agree not to pillage our railroads for a while and not to assail us with warriors, because those things would be silly.

Edit:

Good call, SS.

Nuh-uh, that was an AWESOME call! I mean seriously, look at how little of the map was revealed at that point.