Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[fire&ice]

I'll also add this gameplay note. Fire & Ice should really post up the villager role PM to the first post.

Done

[uberfish]

Not to be pedantic, but my vote for Ug was the 5th vote of the game. And my vote for Rowain was the 4th such vote. That certainly could be considered bandwagoning, but hardly directing a crowd when I am merely a member of the crowd.
To summarize, fit only one point in that description. However, this shouldn't be about me because I'm a generic villager. Our discussion should focus on people who fit all three categories. You showed in the first game that you are a smart player, Uberfish, so I'd like to open the floor for you to suggest other options?

You voted for Ug based on his name which can't really be considered a serious vote, and you did just direct people on how they should be voting in the post I quoted. I voted for you to make a point, which is that your criteria are actually fairly vague assumptions about wolf behaviour.

At this point in the day I think the content of people's posts carries more significance than the currently cast votes with ~2 days to switch around. Personally, I'm beginning to suspect that the reason the "to scry or not to scry MJW" debate is being pushed so hard at the moment is because one or more wolves are trying to see if they can get the seer to slip up and accidentally out themselves.

[Sandover]

I agree the possibility of a fake baner is a big problem, which is why MJW should be scried. Or lynched, I guess, but I am not yet sure enough to risk that.

A fake baner is only a big problem if we trust him, and there's no need for us to do that. We can just circumvent the MJW-issue for the time being, while we lynch Rowain (or Meiz). Once Rowain is a confirmed wolf we can be reasonably certain MJW is really the baner, and that's without using the scry.

Does MJW need to protect himself? Why would the wolves (assuming he is not a wolf himself) risk a failed attack? They would miss out on a kill and confirm MJW's role beyond any doubt. I would think the wolves would attack just about anyone else this first night. Later nights they might chance it, in the hope of catching the Baner while he was protecting someone else. But since there is not (yet) anyone else obvious who needs protection, I think MJW is about as safe as possible right now.

Ok, this I can agree with.

The Seer has a 30% chance of scrying a wolf, just from a random pick. This produces exactly the situation you describe, without the benefit of revealing whether MJW is actually the baner or not. So as I said earlier, why not scry MJW?

See above. Rowain being a wolf would confirm MJW's innocense beyond reasonable doubt, imo.

It is true that MJW is (almost) certainly not a Mason. But if your entire strategy is for the Seer to hope (10% chance) to scry a Mason...this village is likely doomed.

Again, see above. We have a chance to confirm MJW's role without spending the scry.

Scrying someone random either finds a wolf (useful info, but not as useful as revealing MJW as a wolf-pretending-to-be-the-Baner)

Assume MJW is a wolf. Then there is one villager who knows this, i.e. the real baner. Assume someone else is a wolf, how many would know about it? That's right, none. So confirming MJW as a wolf is actually less useful than finding another wolf, since there is already someone who can confirm MJW being a wolf (either by being scryed and telling the seer, or by being lynched or killed during the night).

At this point in time our chances of exposing MJW as a wolf is greater than exposing anyone else as a wolf, so why not look for the ones that are harder to find while also having a decent shot for the seer to hook up with the masons?

I agree that the faction opposing scrying MJW is suspicious. Add Sandover accusing me of being a wolf, and now pushing Lewwyn for Mayor, these two have risen to the top of my personal suspicion list.

So your personal suspicion list is basically the opposite of my personal "likely to be innocent"-list?

I think the two of us are going to have some fun arguments in the days to come while we lynch your two wolf friends.

[Cyneheard]

I've had Internet troubles these past few days, so my Internet access is limited to certain times of day for now. Hopefully that will be fixed soon, but don't want people to get suspicious because I haven't posted anything of note yet due to technical difficulties.

Selrahc because of how he hosted last game.

MJW, WTH???

I think people are right, that we don't need to lynch you yet, the truth will out, but that was crazy to do that.

Dantski We need active villagers to find the wolves, and I didn't even see any thoughts from him when he did check in.

I may not be able to respond before the turn ends (when does it end? I was confused about that).

[fire&ice]

I may not be able to respond before the turn ends (when does it end? I was confused about that).

24 hours from now

working on a 48 hour day 24 hour night ending at 9 pm GMT

[haphazard1]

At this point in time our chances of exposing MJW as a wolf is greater than exposing anyone else as a wolf, so why not look for the ones that are harder to find while also having a decent shot for the seer to hook up with the masons?

Two things here:

1) Why ignore MJW in hopes of finding a different wolf (assuming MJW is one)? Any wolf eliminated is a positive for the village, and an early elimination would be hugely positive. No need to go checking for other candidates when we have not finished confirming the one we have. And if we scry MJW and do not find a wolf, we get the very nice outcome of confirming MJW is the Baner, so the Seer and Baner can work together. Scrying MJW seems like a win-win for the village to me.

2) Why this emphasis on the Seer finding the Masons? There is no "decent" chance of this, it is only 10%. I am suspicious that you keep emphasizing this to distract from the more advantageous choice of scrying MJW -- something a wolf might do to maybe draw out the Seer or a Mason?

So your personal suspicion list is basically the opposite of my personal "likely to be innocent"-list?

Well, it is only Day 1 and we do not exactly have much information yet. Have to start somewhere. And as I have noted, I find your behavior suspicious because you are urging sub-optimal (for the village) choices.

I think the two of us are going to have some fun arguments in the days to come while we lynch your two wolf friends.

Being an innocent villager, I do not have any wolf friends. You, on the other hand....

[Irgy]

From an information theory perspective, scanning MJW is a bad move. We already have a lot of information about who he is. We therefore get the most value out of our limited information source by scanning someone else, in particular the player we know the least about. However, the loss of information could be balanced out by the benefits of a specific strategy which takes advantage of a confirmed baner.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Because Selrahc posts more I trust him more than sunrise now. I change my vote to him.

About who I should protect it becomes a guessing game. I think the payoff matrix is to protect myself 70% of the time, the mayor 25% of the time and someone else 5% of the time. I think Sunrise and Selrach are villagers but there is still a chance they are wolfs.. Does this seem off to you people?

I think Dantski is very likely to get modkilled so I think any lych vote for him runs into danger of being a waste. You should just vote for Sandover if you think his idea is a lie. To me every is feels that they are telling the truth expect for Rowain because of what Mr. Nice Guy said.

[Kyan]

About who I should protect it becomes a guessing game. I think the payoff matrix is to protect myself 70% of the time, the mayor 25% of the time and someone else 5% of the time.

*takes MJW's shovel*

Dude, seriously, stop feeding the wolves more information.

I think Dantski is very likely to get modkilled so I think any lych vote for him runs into danger of being a waste. .

Why would you think that?

[Dantski]

post count +1

There's 2 thing's of real note so far

1. The Mayor Elections

Unfortunately I have no clue what the job description is here so I'm lost. Selrahc seems a sensible choice but no more sensible than some other people who are clearly good at articulating their thoughts. Since I don't know what the purpose of the mayor is yet, I'll refrain from any vote.

2. MJW's baner claim

Strange thing to do day 1 but it could be a clever move. If he's a wolf he's pretty much gave himself away for later days since the seer is sure to check him out, however I think it's more likely that either

i - he's the real baner and trying to get early communication with the seer going

ii - insert other reason here, there's a lot of possibilities that all sound unlikely but people do make strange conclusions

I just don't see how a wolf could benefit from a claim past 1-2 day phases so I will not be voting for MJW, even if that's the only way I could avoid being lynched myself.


So now that I've ruled MJW out as a wolf (or at least a smart wolf!), who would want the real baner out of the way? Duhh... a wolf who would quite like an early success similar to the WW1 game.

Hopefully the same person who so helpfully pointed out I was last to post in this thread will provide an update featuring a list of who's being voted for and by whom promptly!

p.s. what is 'modkilled'?