[Spoiler]PB44 Lurker Thread: Nostalgia Edition

[Zed-F]

I don’t agree that they are the same. Playing to win versus playing to not lose rates the value of short term objectives and resources versus long term objectives and resources differently, sometimes very differently. Playing to win may mean you take risks in the short term to improve your long term position, whereas playing to not lose means you value not being eaten by a neighbor more than any concern that someone on the other side of the map will out snowball you.

This is not to suggest that playing to not lose is necessarily the wrong way to value objectives. Your point that DZ never really had much hope of winning anyway is correct. But I think you overestimate the likelihood of Commodore attacking north once he had a tech lead; I would have suggested keeping a quiet northern border and attacking east into Superdeath seemed much more likely. I don’t agree that DZ necessarily had to choose to play to not lose from his position, but I also don’t think it’s unreasonable he should do so.

In DZ’s position, I think he was justified in principle in his attack against Commodore while he had a force advantage, but he could have done much better in timing and execution. If he were not distracted by multiple other wars and managed to hold what he could take, he could have not just crippled a neighbor but improved his position on the scoreboard. As it stands, he’s rearranged the deck chairs on his ship, but it’s still sinking.

[Mardoc]

If he can weather the storm from Allhazard he is still moving along the path of conquest: will he succeed? Unlikely, but that's the path he has to travel if he wants to win.

I think this is the crux.  I (and I think Zed) aren't arguing that Donovan shouldn't have attacked.  We're arguing that the methods are contradictory with the goals.

Attacking Commodore provides a long term benefit (fewer neighbors willing and able to kill you) but a short term cost (he lost a bunch of units, and will have more distractions from Alhazard's coming strike).  So it seems like the sort of war that should be fought with long term thinking in mind, which would include keeping cities that can improve his economy.  Instead, Donovan seems to be fighting this war as though Commodore is a short term threat, which he wasn't until Donovan made him one.  Maybe that's simply down to omniscient view vs player view; it's not unreasonable to fear a neighbor might choose to dogpile you - but I'd have thought the best solution to prevent dogpile is to win the original war.

Unrelated to the particular decision, Donovan reported because of the war, and that report makes me think he's doomed long term.  Not really related to the Commodore war, more due to the Alhazard war, which has put him at negative economy without any sign of a plan to fix that, nor any indication that he can end the war.  That may have been inevitable - winning one of these games seems to require a neighbor to make a mistake, not just correct decisions on your part.

Donovan seems to be fighting all his wars with the idea of crippling neighbors, but not with anything for boosting himself.  That's necessary but not sufficient to win - he needs to boost himself too.  Maybe not through war, but the way he's fighting these wars, he's not leaving himself any path to boosting himself peacefully either.  

Again, maybe that's inevitable if his neighbors don't make a mistake, but I still feel comfortable predicting he can't win from here.

[Rusten]

What a bloodbath!

[Charriu]

Am I right that Alhazard is the only player that hasn't lost a city? Well Superdeath too I guess, because he recaptured the city immediately.

[Hollybombay]

Am I right that Alhazard is the only player that hasn't lost a city? Well Superdeath too I guess, because he recaptured the city immediately.

That looks to be correct. This game seems to be really shaping up to be quite fun to lurk! Gavagai appears to have been taken down a peg by the discord team, and with Commodore and DZ making peace, I think that leaves Commodore as the only player not in a war! Wow

Wasn't DZ supposed to post more soon?

[Bobchillingworth]

Certainly a wild ride; incredibly, I'd reckon SD is currently in the best position.

[Hollybombay]

I kind of see Commodore as a potential kingmaker.

[Mardoc]

Certainly a wild ride; incredibly, I'd reckon SD is currently in the best position.

Yes. Although I have to be aware of how much the rankings have changed in the last 25 turns, there's still a lot of game here.

[Charriu]

However, I have been keeping track of the global situation with score changes, and I think the power dynamics of the game are settling now.
Tier List!

Tier 1:
Superdeath - he'll take out chumchu (superdeath is fighting/bordering chumchu, which is clearly signaled by the -2 score decrease on turn 112 by chumchu from losing a tile due to culture and other previously noted score changes). I think he will be able to pull ahead and hopefully begin to threaten gav?
Alhazard - seems like he has been consistently fighting donovan and getting the upper hand, with donovan losing a city on 107. Commodore and Regentman are too weak to truly benefit from a Donovan conquest.

Tier 2:
gavagai - if his economy was any better, he'd be top of the tier. However, he's really behind.
Us - we're in it to survive, not win at this point, but anything can happen... We're probably better off than any tier 3 civs.

Tier 3:
Commodore - Little I can say to be frank. He's lost his capital and two wonders, set back enormously, but perhaps he can recover? Top of tier 3
Donovan - not enough info. He seems to be losing to alhazard though and is in a war with three people based on score - never a good situation to be in.
Chumchu - gav is probably propping him up one way or another, but he'll fall eventually
RegentMan - he must be putting up a tenacious defense, but at the same time he is not whipping that much? He'll be knocked out eventually, bottom of the bottom tier here.

I find this a good analysis of the current situation. Those two are also my top players in this game

[Cornflakes]

Alhazard canceled our open borders, then reoffered while giving me 4gpt.. I.................. wont say no to extra GPT + really good trade routes but i will say it was odd.

Probably a result of Ahlazard coming back to Civ 4 ... the “us” and “them” are backwards compared to the Civ 6 diplo window