Community predictions added to the Game Four preview page: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor5-4-preview.html
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MirrorG: Okay! So! Game 2 was bad, Game 3 was worse, so how about this: Pericles has a whole corner of the map to himself, with Victoria and Ramses providing a buffer between him and the most aggressive competition of Kublai and Ragnar. The big question mark in this game is Hannibal, who can either choose to focus west and slow down the warmongers, expand north and have the high peace weight buffer take the heat for Pericles, or focus east and ruin the Greeks' picnic. For the sake of my poor, poor score total, I'm banking on it not being the last one. As Kublai isn't quite as a performer as Caesar, I think he has a much bigger chance of stalling out / getting distracted before he can poke at the cultural civ's corner of the map (especially with Ragnar there to drag up the war count and Saladin to create diplomatic blocs with the religion he's undoubtedly going to grab), giving Greece enough time to watch the world burn as they stroll towards a cultural win. ...Just got to hope I'm actually right, this time :V
hasuprotoss: No idea how anyone will win this, but imagine that poor Victoria is the first to go. I guess the best I can do is that Hannibal gets out to an early land lead, holds the pop lead and wins by having some friends. IDK tho lol
Amicalola: I think Hannibal takes this one by domination. He's got a lot of room to expand, a stellar capital, two luxuries, and starts next to weak Ramesses and Saladin. He'll also hate most of the other leaders, so we'll get some good carnage. Ragnar gets second for me because I love his little peninsula, and like Hannibal, he's in a position to capitalize on Saladin's slow start-to-be. If any leader could mess that up though, it's him, so that one's risky. Saladin first to die because those starting techs, combined with a religion out of the gate... yikes. Then he'll get sandwiched between a hostile Carthage and Vikings. Ramesses and Kublai have very little food surrounding their capitals, so I don't think they'll be first to die, but I don't think they'll be major powers either. Victoria is just... Victoria. I can't imagine her doing well. Lastly, Pericles is good, but I just think he'll pull a Hammurabi and do nothing all game, eventually either being relegated to the Wildcard Game or being killed by whoever turns out to be the runaway.
ZincAlloy: What's that, Ragnar? You want to get into lots of wars with Kublai and Saladin and make sure none of you have a chance of winning? Good to hear, buddy! Have fun with that! Anyways, Pericles eventually unites the world for a diplo win, Kubiai does snag a kill of two for second, but much of the world survives to advance to the wildcard game.
SpamBot: So, Kublai is going to kill Victoria and then snowball ALL the way over to the east coast. He will probably also kill Ragnar when he inevitable suicides upon the Mongol empire.
LinkMarioSamus: Saladin having only one measly point for his Power Ranking has always seemed off: most of the other leaders with 0-2 points are the ones who perform consistently badly, and Saladin doesn't really belong in that category. I am picking him to win this match on the basis that he has the best diplomatic position by far of this whole group, and it's not even close. Ragnar and Victoria are the only leaders who aren't inclined to like Saladin in this match, and even they're not prone to think too much of him one way or the other. Furthermore, Saladin is the only leader in this match whose civ starts with Mysticism and he's in a fairly central position, so he could REALLY play kingmaker. Also, if Ragnar decides to attack him early he does have that Protective trait to hold the line and possibility even turn the whole conflict around! Finally, he has kind of been stuck behind powerful leaders in a lot of his games: he drew the same opening round game as Gandhi, Catherine, Charlemagne, and Stalin in Season 1 and was one of the game leaders for much of it, then his opening round game in Season 2 was won by Gandhi and in both Seasons 3 & 4 by Justinian, with the latter also having Charlemagne and Suryavarman to boot. Bottom line is this guy is not as incompetent as you'd think and he could be dangerous. Hannibal 2nd because his opening round victory in Season 3 was over the likes of Suryavarman and Sitting Bull and he has the next best diplomatic situation this game, albeit not by much over Pericles, Ramesses, and Kublai Khan (who is the next most-likely top two finisher in this game at least). Ragnar and Victoria both jointly have the worst diplomatic situation in this match: either is a viable FTD pick but I'll go with Victoria so she remains with 0 points by the end of this season. Bold prediction: none of the six leaders with 0 points will get any this season. Sitting Bull and Frederick have already left the competition empty-handed, so just four more to go!
Sir Colville of the Dale: Kublai eats Vicky, Pericles and Ramasses eat Hannibal, Ragnar eats Saladin, then stabs Kublai. Kublai eats Ragnar, and is still chewing through Ramasses when Pericles steals the Cultural Victory. Just that simple.
Koopatroopaturtle: Peace weight and religious spread along that massive river system will be key in this game. Everyone but Ragnar has an easy path to river connections around the world which will allow for broad religious alliances. The North has much less land than the south, meaning Victoria and Ramses will be heavily squeezed. Victoria's exposed position to Ragnar, Kublai, potential religious crusader Saladin, and Hannibal makes her the most likely first to die. Kublai will likely gain the most from her demise and snowball through Ramses with Hannibal or possibly Saladin, becoming the side-kick. Ragnar is too far in the corner to be effective. Kublai might make it to domination, but late space-ship victory is also possible.
ljubljana: i can't believe i'm actually picking ragnar
Dark Savant: There's more land in the southern hemisphere than usual, and it's more than just cold fishing villages for the civilizations at the ends -- Ragnar and Pericles. Ragnar has worse land and probably will get himself locked into yet another multitude of suicidal wars, so I'm favoring Pericles to do well. He's fond of culture even though he doesn't have the greatest personality and traits for it, so let's pick Cultural again -- that ALMOST was the right choice last time! Victoria is in a congested area and has a lot of unfriendly neighbors; she's likely to do poorly even if she actually gets off to a good start this time. Saladin and Hannibal are probably also going to suffer from middle starts with too many unfriendly neighbors. I think Kublai has overperformed in the past -- I'm going to bet on regression to the mean here. Ramesses is a risky pick for second place, but he and my winner choice are not particularly likely to fight, and he's reasonably well-shielded enough on this map to pull off a coattail ride.
Slashin': Three food resources AND horses all within the second ring of the great Khan's capital??? No other capital comes close to the potential explosiveness of Kublai's start during the landgrab phase, and he will definitely get an early lead in cities compared to his rivals. Kubali Khan will be further aided when Ramesses and Victoria get inevitably dogpiled on, and Kublai gets a fair share of his own captures with his keshiks. I think mutual struggles and similar peace weights will keep the warmongers from going too crazy with each other and result in he civs teching in peace once the high peaceweights are gone. Kublai's superior land grab and conquests will give him the tech lead for space, although being a mediocre techer means a relatively late launch. Predicting second is very difficult so I will just have to go with Pericles, whose semisolated start and neutralish peaceweight will keep him largely left alone.
Vincarius: Hannibal ad portas! Yes, I'll be betting on Hannibal to take the game with a spaceship victory. There appears to be one obvious choice for first to die: Victoria. She is a high peace weight civ surrounded by low peace weights. Hannibal would be a likely candidate to reap the spoils and from there on can snowball away with a spaceship victory. For 2nd place I have gone with Saladin simply because I believe he is a bit of an underrated civ and would like to see him get a good finish at last. Also he will likely get good relations with Hannibal which would shield him from his aggression and he is a neighbour of Victoria. On the other hand, Pericles does have a lot of land and Saladin does neighbour the Vikings so I could be very wrong here.
JackDRB: I know Kublai has the 2nd place reputation, but I think he has it in the bag this game. He has horses right there for Keshiks and the peaks between him and Ragnar will funnel him right into a probably underexpanded and weak Victoria, leading him to snowball and gobble up the whole of the north. Second is trickier, but I think the most sensible pick is Saladin. Hannibal is probably the best AI out of the rest, but I think he will struggle considering he starts next to very religious AIs and I think he will culturally dominated reducing the territory he will pick up, meanwhile Ragnar is too stupid to live. Saladin almost definitely founds a religion too, being the only one with Mysticism, and his river conveniently snakes up and passes by Kublai, making him a suitable ally/sidekick. Go Go Mongolia!
smithy: I really want Rags to get this one, he'll rarely have a better setup of land, potential allies and punchbags- but unfortunately he is Ragnar. He will pick one fight too many and spears can only beat so many tanks, so alas Kublai it is for my pick.
onestarchef: I think Kublai will get cramped in way too early to be able to dominate the opponent, but Hannibal has plenty of room to the south and east. Victoria will get dog-piled by the low peace weight leaders, where I think Hannibal will claim most of the spoils, and then will be too strong for Pericles to handle when they inevitably fight. I'm not sold on Kublai second for sure, but I just can't see a probable scenario where he doesn't at least make it to wildcard. I think the only thing that Hannibal has to avoid at all costs is an early war with Pericles that will cripple both of them, and if he manages to avoid that, he'll steamroll the rest of the game.
willow_arkan: Khan's position seems better then Hannibal's. Khan is next to Ragnar who shares a very low peace-weight and both are close to the incredibly high peace weight Victoria and, if not her, then Ragnar would be more likely to hurt Saladin. In contrast Hannibal is between to 2 middling peace weights and Pericles isn't completely useless in a fight and to the north are Rameses and Victoria who are more likely to side with Pericles. So while i believe Hannibal survives, since Rameses and Victoria aren't all that aggressive, I think he just links up with Kublai to eat Victoria and maybe Rameses after. Although he might share Saladin with Ragnar depending how things shake out, but in that case he is in danger of one of the 6+ piece-weights near him joining in against him. I feel Ragnar might just fight too many wars to stay in second place, more likely enabling conquests for Khan and to a lesser extent Hannibal, but falling behind them in tech. Plus his start doesn't exactly look fast. Saladin just looks like the odd man out when all the higher peace-weights are gone.
Anih: I can win with nonsensed thoughts (and Takuan hates me for that)
So I continue to think strangely. Without resources I said Saladin will die first but with 3 Gold resources, I make him win If I want him to win, I need Ragnar to die first. I hope/predict it will be the first war : Saladin declares war to Ragnar (for the gold, gold is life ^^). I think with so many AIs it's difficult to win with Domination. So I chose Spaceship. I think it will remain 3 or 4 AIs at the end. I voted Pericles finishing second because he has a bigger place to expand his territory. I'm taking a big risk chosing Saladin first because he has so many neighbours. But if I say it, it can happen!
Willem: I'm figuring: a bloodbath! Kublai gets cramped, still gets big somehow, but then goes irrelevant somehow anyway. Viccy inexplicably dies while baba yetu is still fading out. Hannibal wins. So Viccy, with otherwise excellent prospects in a midgame, won't make it to the midgame yet again; like Mouse in the Matrix, Viccy falls heroically but unprepared in a hail of gunfire. In the midgame, Saladin's list of high peaceweight allies runs thin and he may have a glorious hero's end, may be a kid fortifying a sandcastle as high tide comes in... probably...- actually, Saladin could even be a dark horse longshot to win it if he joins in the right feeding frenzies and holds the line, like a snapping turtle... but i doubt it. The Hannibal domination - though much more measured and reasonable than Kublai's hopes - may be spoiled early by saladin/saladin's religion or by eastern alliances but is an interesting wrinkle of a possibility nonetheless. Pericles has great room in this map roll, as as does Ragnar. I like Pericles' chances. Pericles may have a culture win spoiled by his buddy ram who he may have to split some wonders with. Hannibal could also clash with him enough to spoil his hopes. Kublai could end up with 50%+ landmass and blunder his way to victory when he has so much land that he can't lose even with him seemly trying throw his lategame away at every opportunity.
Faded_Outline: First Law of Civ: No-one starting next to Ragnar gets to win. So that's Kublai and Saladin out, the former likely gets to add to his silverware collection while Hannibal does what he does best with those elephants and rolls ever onwards from there.
Game Four Picking Contest Entry Form
Two more days to get the predictions in. Also, for anyone who missed it, we have a written report for Game Three provided by Eauxps I. Fourgott. If you didn't already have a chance to read it, this is your chance to see the last game as summarized from a different point of view: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor5-3.html
MirrorG: Okay! So! Game 2 was bad, Game 3 was worse, so how about this: Pericles has a whole corner of the map to himself, with Victoria and Ramses providing a buffer between him and the most aggressive competition of Kublai and Ragnar. The big question mark in this game is Hannibal, who can either choose to focus west and slow down the warmongers, expand north and have the high peace weight buffer take the heat for Pericles, or focus east and ruin the Greeks' picnic. For the sake of my poor, poor score total, I'm banking on it not being the last one. As Kublai isn't quite as a performer as Caesar, I think he has a much bigger chance of stalling out / getting distracted before he can poke at the cultural civ's corner of the map (especially with Ragnar there to drag up the war count and Saladin to create diplomatic blocs with the religion he's undoubtedly going to grab), giving Greece enough time to watch the world burn as they stroll towards a cultural win. ...Just got to hope I'm actually right, this time :V
hasuprotoss: No idea how anyone will win this, but imagine that poor Victoria is the first to go. I guess the best I can do is that Hannibal gets out to an early land lead, holds the pop lead and wins by having some friends. IDK tho lol
Amicalola: I think Hannibal takes this one by domination. He's got a lot of room to expand, a stellar capital, two luxuries, and starts next to weak Ramesses and Saladin. He'll also hate most of the other leaders, so we'll get some good carnage. Ragnar gets second for me because I love his little peninsula, and like Hannibal, he's in a position to capitalize on Saladin's slow start-to-be. If any leader could mess that up though, it's him, so that one's risky. Saladin first to die because those starting techs, combined with a religion out of the gate... yikes. Then he'll get sandwiched between a hostile Carthage and Vikings. Ramesses and Kublai have very little food surrounding their capitals, so I don't think they'll be first to die, but I don't think they'll be major powers either. Victoria is just... Victoria. I can't imagine her doing well. Lastly, Pericles is good, but I just think he'll pull a Hammurabi and do nothing all game, eventually either being relegated to the Wildcard Game or being killed by whoever turns out to be the runaway.
ZincAlloy: What's that, Ragnar? You want to get into lots of wars with Kublai and Saladin and make sure none of you have a chance of winning? Good to hear, buddy! Have fun with that! Anyways, Pericles eventually unites the world for a diplo win, Kubiai does snag a kill of two for second, but much of the world survives to advance to the wildcard game.
SpamBot: So, Kublai is going to kill Victoria and then snowball ALL the way over to the east coast. He will probably also kill Ragnar when he inevitable suicides upon the Mongol empire.
LinkMarioSamus: Saladin having only one measly point for his Power Ranking has always seemed off: most of the other leaders with 0-2 points are the ones who perform consistently badly, and Saladin doesn't really belong in that category. I am picking him to win this match on the basis that he has the best diplomatic position by far of this whole group, and it's not even close. Ragnar and Victoria are the only leaders who aren't inclined to like Saladin in this match, and even they're not prone to think too much of him one way or the other. Furthermore, Saladin is the only leader in this match whose civ starts with Mysticism and he's in a fairly central position, so he could REALLY play kingmaker. Also, if Ragnar decides to attack him early he does have that Protective trait to hold the line and possibility even turn the whole conflict around! Finally, he has kind of been stuck behind powerful leaders in a lot of his games: he drew the same opening round game as Gandhi, Catherine, Charlemagne, and Stalin in Season 1 and was one of the game leaders for much of it, then his opening round game in Season 2 was won by Gandhi and in both Seasons 3 & 4 by Justinian, with the latter also having Charlemagne and Suryavarman to boot. Bottom line is this guy is not as incompetent as you'd think and he could be dangerous. Hannibal 2nd because his opening round victory in Season 3 was over the likes of Suryavarman and Sitting Bull and he has the next best diplomatic situation this game, albeit not by much over Pericles, Ramesses, and Kublai Khan (who is the next most-likely top two finisher in this game at least). Ragnar and Victoria both jointly have the worst diplomatic situation in this match: either is a viable FTD pick but I'll go with Victoria so she remains with 0 points by the end of this season. Bold prediction: none of the six leaders with 0 points will get any this season. Sitting Bull and Frederick have already left the competition empty-handed, so just four more to go!
Sir Colville of the Dale: Kublai eats Vicky, Pericles and Ramasses eat Hannibal, Ragnar eats Saladin, then stabs Kublai. Kublai eats Ragnar, and is still chewing through Ramasses when Pericles steals the Cultural Victory. Just that simple.
Koopatroopaturtle: Peace weight and religious spread along that massive river system will be key in this game. Everyone but Ragnar has an easy path to river connections around the world which will allow for broad religious alliances. The North has much less land than the south, meaning Victoria and Ramses will be heavily squeezed. Victoria's exposed position to Ragnar, Kublai, potential religious crusader Saladin, and Hannibal makes her the most likely first to die. Kublai will likely gain the most from her demise and snowball through Ramses with Hannibal or possibly Saladin, becoming the side-kick. Ragnar is too far in the corner to be effective. Kublai might make it to domination, but late space-ship victory is also possible.
ljubljana: i can't believe i'm actually picking ragnar
Dark Savant: There's more land in the southern hemisphere than usual, and it's more than just cold fishing villages for the civilizations at the ends -- Ragnar and Pericles. Ragnar has worse land and probably will get himself locked into yet another multitude of suicidal wars, so I'm favoring Pericles to do well. He's fond of culture even though he doesn't have the greatest personality and traits for it, so let's pick Cultural again -- that ALMOST was the right choice last time! Victoria is in a congested area and has a lot of unfriendly neighbors; she's likely to do poorly even if she actually gets off to a good start this time. Saladin and Hannibal are probably also going to suffer from middle starts with too many unfriendly neighbors. I think Kublai has overperformed in the past -- I'm going to bet on regression to the mean here. Ramesses is a risky pick for second place, but he and my winner choice are not particularly likely to fight, and he's reasonably well-shielded enough on this map to pull off a coattail ride.
Slashin': Three food resources AND horses all within the second ring of the great Khan's capital??? No other capital comes close to the potential explosiveness of Kublai's start during the landgrab phase, and he will definitely get an early lead in cities compared to his rivals. Kubali Khan will be further aided when Ramesses and Victoria get inevitably dogpiled on, and Kublai gets a fair share of his own captures with his keshiks. I think mutual struggles and similar peace weights will keep the warmongers from going too crazy with each other and result in he civs teching in peace once the high peaceweights are gone. Kublai's superior land grab and conquests will give him the tech lead for space, although being a mediocre techer means a relatively late launch. Predicting second is very difficult so I will just have to go with Pericles, whose semisolated start and neutralish peaceweight will keep him largely left alone.
Vincarius: Hannibal ad portas! Yes, I'll be betting on Hannibal to take the game with a spaceship victory. There appears to be one obvious choice for first to die: Victoria. She is a high peace weight civ surrounded by low peace weights. Hannibal would be a likely candidate to reap the spoils and from there on can snowball away with a spaceship victory. For 2nd place I have gone with Saladin simply because I believe he is a bit of an underrated civ and would like to see him get a good finish at last. Also he will likely get good relations with Hannibal which would shield him from his aggression and he is a neighbour of Victoria. On the other hand, Pericles does have a lot of land and Saladin does neighbour the Vikings so I could be very wrong here.
JackDRB: I know Kublai has the 2nd place reputation, but I think he has it in the bag this game. He has horses right there for Keshiks and the peaks between him and Ragnar will funnel him right into a probably underexpanded and weak Victoria, leading him to snowball and gobble up the whole of the north. Second is trickier, but I think the most sensible pick is Saladin. Hannibal is probably the best AI out of the rest, but I think he will struggle considering he starts next to very religious AIs and I think he will culturally dominated reducing the territory he will pick up, meanwhile Ragnar is too stupid to live. Saladin almost definitely founds a religion too, being the only one with Mysticism, and his river conveniently snakes up and passes by Kublai, making him a suitable ally/sidekick. Go Go Mongolia!
smithy: I really want Rags to get this one, he'll rarely have a better setup of land, potential allies and punchbags- but unfortunately he is Ragnar. He will pick one fight too many and spears can only beat so many tanks, so alas Kublai it is for my pick.
onestarchef: I think Kublai will get cramped in way too early to be able to dominate the opponent, but Hannibal has plenty of room to the south and east. Victoria will get dog-piled by the low peace weight leaders, where I think Hannibal will claim most of the spoils, and then will be too strong for Pericles to handle when they inevitably fight. I'm not sold on Kublai second for sure, but I just can't see a probable scenario where he doesn't at least make it to wildcard. I think the only thing that Hannibal has to avoid at all costs is an early war with Pericles that will cripple both of them, and if he manages to avoid that, he'll steamroll the rest of the game.
willow_arkan: Khan's position seems better then Hannibal's. Khan is next to Ragnar who shares a very low peace-weight and both are close to the incredibly high peace weight Victoria and, if not her, then Ragnar would be more likely to hurt Saladin. In contrast Hannibal is between to 2 middling peace weights and Pericles isn't completely useless in a fight and to the north are Rameses and Victoria who are more likely to side with Pericles. So while i believe Hannibal survives, since Rameses and Victoria aren't all that aggressive, I think he just links up with Kublai to eat Victoria and maybe Rameses after. Although he might share Saladin with Ragnar depending how things shake out, but in that case he is in danger of one of the 6+ piece-weights near him joining in against him. I feel Ragnar might just fight too many wars to stay in second place, more likely enabling conquests for Khan and to a lesser extent Hannibal, but falling behind them in tech. Plus his start doesn't exactly look fast. Saladin just looks like the odd man out when all the higher peace-weights are gone.
Anih: I can win with nonsensed thoughts (and Takuan hates me for that)
So I continue to think strangely. Without resources I said Saladin will die first but with 3 Gold resources, I make him win If I want him to win, I need Ragnar to die first. I hope/predict it will be the first war : Saladin declares war to Ragnar (for the gold, gold is life ^^). I think with so many AIs it's difficult to win with Domination. So I chose Spaceship. I think it will remain 3 or 4 AIs at the end. I voted Pericles finishing second because he has a bigger place to expand his territory. I'm taking a big risk chosing Saladin first because he has so many neighbours. But if I say it, it can happen!Willem: I'm figuring: a bloodbath! Kublai gets cramped, still gets big somehow, but then goes irrelevant somehow anyway. Viccy inexplicably dies while baba yetu is still fading out. Hannibal wins. So Viccy, with otherwise excellent prospects in a midgame, won't make it to the midgame yet again; like Mouse in the Matrix, Viccy falls heroically but unprepared in a hail of gunfire. In the midgame, Saladin's list of high peaceweight allies runs thin and he may have a glorious hero's end, may be a kid fortifying a sandcastle as high tide comes in... probably...- actually, Saladin could even be a dark horse longshot to win it if he joins in the right feeding frenzies and holds the line, like a snapping turtle... but i doubt it. The Hannibal domination - though much more measured and reasonable than Kublai's hopes - may be spoiled early by saladin/saladin's religion or by eastern alliances but is an interesting wrinkle of a possibility nonetheless. Pericles has great room in this map roll, as as does Ragnar. I like Pericles' chances. Pericles may have a culture win spoiled by his buddy ram who he may have to split some wonders with. Hannibal could also clash with him enough to spoil his hopes. Kublai could end up with 50%+ landmass and blunder his way to victory when he has so much land that he can't lose even with him seemly trying throw his lategame away at every opportunity.
Faded_Outline: First Law of Civ: No-one starting next to Ragnar gets to win. So that's Kublai and Saladin out, the former likely gets to add to his silverware collection while Hannibal does what he does best with those elephants and rolls ever onwards from there.
Game Four Picking Contest Entry Form
Two more days to get the predictions in. Also, for anyone who missed it, we have a written report for Game Three provided by Eauxps I. Fourgott. If you didn't already have a chance to read it, this is your chance to see the last game as summarized from a different point of view: http://www.sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor5-3.html
![[Image: niemals.gif]](https://www.civforum.de/images/smilies/niemals.gif)
. Gandhi swapped between engineers and merchants, not artist and also do not change the cultural slider. He swapped from Mining to Creative Construction and back.
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