Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Serdoa]

Guys, your theories of me being a wolf don't make any sense, you know that? What you are implying is that the wolves would at this stage of the game rather keep one of them covered and after the night be at 5 to 2 instead of killing a villager and being at 4 to 3. Yeah, makes complete sense. Instead of needing only one more villager lynch the wolves now need again 2 lynches on villagers by villagers.

So, lets look at that from a realistic viewpoint: I am a villager.

The question remaining is: Rowain, haphazard1, MNG, Irgy, Gaspar - which two of those are wolves?

But hey, I have bought us time, so if you wish, go on and lynch me. I think we don't deserve to win anyway and I am sure if F&I hadn't included too many power-roles for us, we would have been killed by the wolves already.

[Irgy]

Guys, your theories of me being a wolf don't make any sense, you know that? What you are implying is that the wolves would at this stage of the game rather keep one of them covered and after the night be at 5 to 2 instead of killing a villager and being at 4 to 3. Yeah, makes complete sense. Instead of needing only one more villager lynch the wolves now need again 2 lynches on villagers by villagers.

You don't address the case where Mr Nice Guy is a wolf as well with this argument. That's why I say the two of you are tied together somewhat.

I don't entirely agree with what you're saying either for what it's worth, but it's a matter of opinion. And my opinion on the trade off between sacrificing one already beseiged wolf to clear the name of another isn't what matters anyway, what matters is the wolves opinion on it.

[fire&ice]

dantski was eaten
villager

[Serdoa]

Irgy, you do not even take into account all facts. No, I won't put them up here, I am tired of this. Vote for me please, I'm fine with that.

Serdoa

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Irgy, you do not even take into account all facts. No, I won't put them up here, I am tired of this. Vote for me please, I'm fine with that.

Serdoa

No Serdoa, I think Scooter may have spared you, and I think I may have discovered a wolf in the process. Check out Irgy's votes:

... especially since day 3. 3: no vote (Selrahc lynched), 4: Uberfish (only after it was clear he was going) 5: Serdoa, 6: Roland (vote #3 for the day), 7: me... and I know it's still in doubt but I AM innocent. If you are also innocent, that means the only wolf he's voted on since Day 3 is Uberfish, and at that point it would be foolish for a wolf NOT to vote for him.

Also considered his votes yesterday, and what we know about them:
First he voted for Scooter. That was a wolf that looked like an obvious kill. At the time there was no other "good" candidate, and being tied to the Scooter kill would be a safe place to be.
Then he moved to Serdoa. I had already had my back-and-forth with Scooter, and had publicly accused Serdoa. But Scooter hadn't made posts that made Serdoa look innocent, Serdoa hadn't yet changed his vote. So keeping suspicion on Serdoa at this point was wise. Irgy could have swung the vote against Serdoa and gotten him killed. What a good opportunity, eh?
And finally he voted for me. I think after passionately arguing both for Scooter and Sandover to die, my name should be fairly clear. But the argument against me was good yesterday. Accusing me puts doubt on the scooter claim, and gets a bandwagon going. I die, and the wolves have bought time.. they now just need us to make one more false move and game over.

You on the other hand, have finally convinced me that you are a villager. One who tied his fates to a wolf, yes, but a villager nonetheless. I know I've publicly been critical of you in the past, but now I urge my village brothers to not make the same mistake as we did with Roland. Please join me in voting Irgy to hang today.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Guys, your theories of me being a wolf don't make any sense, you know that? What you are implying is that the wolves would at this stage of the game rather keep one of them covered and after the night be at 5 to 2 instead of killing a villager and being at 4 to 3. Yeah, makes complete sense. Instead of needing only one more villager lynch the wolves now need again 2 lynches on villagers by villagers.

I think you're right. Yesterday was a case of wolf vs. villager. It's the first time that, without a scry, we've had a good instance of this to judge behavior and voting. To summarize:

Gaspar: wanted to vote Rowain but switched to Scooter when it became apparent that it was me against Scooter. He chose the wolf... for that and combined with previous evidence, 90% likely villager.
Nice Guy: passionately argued for lynching Scooter from the start to the end of the day. Had blinders on about it. Could have been a sign of guilt, IF Scooter was innocent. Because he was guilty it's the best sign of innocent i can have minus a scry. 100% villager, non-unique at that
Rowain: voted for me after the tide turned. Wolf play? Maybe, but didn't give us too much context to go on, just echoed others' suspicions.
Lewwyn: voted for me, and had me on his list of suspects. Scried innocent, though.
Haphazard: in the biggest shocker of the game :neenernee joined me in the Scooter lynch after his first choice of Gaspar didn't gain traction. I continue to see him as innocent.
Serdoa: Was the deciding vote, and in the end decided to go against the wolf Scooter. Like Gaspar that puts him at 90% likely villager in my eyes.
Which leaves us with Irgy. I've already covered Irgy's voting and trail of suspicions (yet I made a mistake: he never actually voted against Scooter, just confirmed layed doubt).

At this point in the game, choice of 5:2 or 4:3, a wolf would have to choose 4:3 - that puts them in a near-game-over situation. The only people who didn't vote for a 5:2 situation are Lewwyn, Rowain, Irgy, and Scooter.

That, combined with a game's worth of suspicions, is why I'm voting Irgy.

***I know this excludes the possibility of my being a wolf and it being a wolf vs wolf choice. I exclude it because the possibility is... ludicrous.***

[Irgy]

Irgy, you do not even take into account all facts. No, I won't put them up here, I am tired of this. Vote for me please, I'm fine with that.

Serdoa

I don't think I actually claim to account for all facts anywhere. Navigating the spiderweb of justifications and excuses people make for their actions is where wolves tend to shine and where I tend not to. Instead I go to great lengths to make stand alone statements that live outside that realm. I'm aware of your reasons for what you've done, I'm just not especially interested in them as they can be faked as well as anything else. I'm sorry if this doesn't leave you with much room to argue against it, but that's kind of the point of it.

I'm not convinced it's the right choice, but I have to take a punt on something.


Re Mr. Nice Guy's comments: I'd love to play the game and respond to your accusation, but I frankly can't make head or tail of it. The argument's incomprehensible and the basic facts aren't even correct. The only redeeming thing about it is that I'd normally expect a wolf to do a better job of it.

When I came up with my trifecta, for all my effort of looking through the voting records it was still basically just a shot in the dark. But with the reactions I'm getting I'm feeling more and more comfortable with it by the minute. So, I'll stick to my guns and vote for Mr. Nice Guy (again) today. Let's just hope I'm right.

[Dantski]

danski was eaten
villager

phew I'm sure glad I'm not this danski guy

ggs guys

[Irgy]

Oops, cross posted with Mr Nice Guy's second post. I see you've noticed your mistake that I never voted for Scooter. The other factual mistake I thought you made was something I just misread. Actually I can just about follow what you've written now. You seem to be completely ignoring my reason behind all of my votes yesterday, but that's what, as I just explained, I do myself, so I can't fault you for that

[Mr. Nice Guy]

So, I'll stick to my guns and vote for Mr. Nice Guy (again) today. Let's just hope I'm right.

If by "right" you mean "voting for a wolf", then no, you're not right. But if by "right" you mean "voting for the villager most likely to stir the pot and hence get two villagers (plus the two wolves) to vote against him", then you've hit it right on the head.

You say that you are feeling more and more comfortable with your trifecta by the minute. That was Scooter, Serdoa, and me. Why, then, would you vote against me when Serdoa already has a bit of suspicion from the village and has a vote against him already?

And you say I've missed the reasons behind your votes. I guess I kind of have. Maybe you can explain them so I can understand better? After all... how did you justify voting for Serdoa?

So who to go for first? For me, Serdoa is the more suspicious of the three, and possibly the most informative to find out about in the unfortunate case where we're "on wood" so to speak in needing to get 3 from 3 in the remaining votes.

So basically, an innocent Serdoa clears Scooter and me. A guilty Serdoa condemns us. We now know beyond doubt Scooter was guilty. And we have ample reason to believe Serdoa is innocent. Had Serdoa been the one to die, you would have the opportunity to claim Scooter is innocent. If Scooter is proven innocent, the village loses.

And here's how you justified the vote against me:

Well a spread vote is interesting, but it also lets the wolves pick and choose their choice of bandwagon. I'm fairly happy with any of my three choices, so if others think Mr Nice Guy is a better option I'll go with that.

So basically what you're saying there is that your attempt to save Scooter with a Serdoa bandwagon failed, so you'll join the bandwagon (that you helped start) against me? Forgive me for reading between the lines, but it's necessary to do that when reading the posting of a blood-thirsty werewolf.