Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[Gaspar]

I did pick up on MNGs suspiciousness. As a villager, I assumed it was MNG being flaily and that he was as likely to be a power role as a wolf. But really more than anything, and I stand by this now even though the result worked for us, I prefer a closer vote on D1 to hopefully learn some things. So my not voting MNG had little to nothing to do with my presumption of his guilt and everything to do with wanting to prevent a landslide. I think a blind squirrel could see he was behaving suspiciously.

If I were a wolf in the opposite pack, I'd have not cared about either of those factors - I'd have been happy to get a landslide lynch, happy to get a wolf in the other pack or happy to get a strong power role. I said at the time if I were a wolf in his pack I'd have saved him, but this was probably arrogant of me (as well as wrong - Cassandra and all.)

[Tasunke]

Thank you for the clarification. And it does make sense, I suppose. But at the same time I think it is rather dangerous to overly rely on "if I was a wolf, I would do X" kind of reasoning. I saw you do it a number of times in WW11, and it was for that very reason that I had become rather suspicious of you in that particular game. In fact I was ready to follow Magpie (or whats his name, the resident evil guy) in voting for you until Sareln's power usage reveal.

As far as process goes, Pindicator posted a link that said, if everyone is playing an excellent game, a completely random voting process is best (for both lynches and night kills, apparently).

And as far as Day 1 goes, I wasn't completely sold on MNG's wolfishness, but I felt that if others were sure of his wolfishness it would be better to keep a possibly wolf-influenced tie from happening in order to lynch the most likely candidate (instead of randomly pick between most suspicious candidate and 2nd most suspicious candidate).

Was it not in WW11 that you were warning people from being overly reliant on Day1's voting? Saying that it didn't matter who voted for Jkaen vs Scooter, etcetera?

In any case, I know the current schools of 'greater logic' state that a focus on the process is greater than a focus on the results, but I think at some point we should look at the results and say "for this population, is this really the best process?"

I mean, by your process it was good for Commodore and Bigger to have a tie, but in looking at the results, the tie "that was engineered by Lewwyn and Sareln" ended up killing an innocent.

Perhaps it did end up giving us more information, but it also resulted in a mislynch. And not knowing the full set up, it is hard to know how many mislynches we can afford.

[Tasunke]

For one thing, I know that, from my epidemiology class, that while on the National Level the think tanks on medicine decide what the best process is ...

On the local level, individual doctors are now being encouraged to use the process as only a guideline, and instead use something a bit more results based to get the best care for that individual patient (or group of patients).

[Serdoa]

Ok, now for whom to vote. Kills / Lynches till now:

Bigger - Voyeur
Ichabod - Liar
Rowain - Voteblocker
uberfish - Hunter
Mardoc - ??? (missing on the 1st page, as does pling)

MNG - Announcer (White)
pling - Killblocker (White)
Commodore - Tracker (Black)

Leaves me with 12 possible suspects:

Catwalk, Gaspar, Injera, Jkaen, Lewwyn, Meiz, Molach, novice, Pindicator, Sareln, Tasunke, zakalwe

I'm not sure about anyone and I probably could build a case against most, just for not adding much. But wait... thats not true. I realized that when someone made the point against me that I haven't added much. Because it is not true. I did. Of course, it was mostly making a case against Bigger which led to a mislynch and not voting for MNG Day1 (though again, because I actually played the game) but still, I have added something, as wrong as I might have been. But the game itself lends itself to being laid back - we knew whom to lynch anyway. Thats true for the villagers - but also for the wolves. There is not much they can do without looking suspicious. And it gives a great explanation why one does not do anything as well -> everything was pretty clear, so why expose oneself?

Taking that into account, the really quiet ones should probably be taken a closer look at. So, to cut it short, the one I think is the least engaged in this game, only rarely showing up, writing a post and going back to lurking is

Molach

[Tasunke]

Mardoc was a Follower

[Serdoa]

Thank you for the clarification. And it does make sense, I suppose. But at the same time I think it is rather dangerous to overly rely on "if I was a wolf, I would do X" kind of reasoning. I saw you do it a number of times in WW11, and it was for that very reason that I had become rather suspicious of you in that particular game. In fact I was ready to follow Magpie (or whats his name, the resident evil guy) in voting for you until Sareln's power usage reveal.

As far as process goes, Pindicator posted a link that said, if everyone is playing an excellent game, a completely random voting process is best (for both lynches and night kills, apparently).

And as far as Day 1 goes, I wasn't completely sold on MNG's wolfishness, but I felt that if others were sure of his wolfishness it would be better to keep a possibly wolf-influenced tie from happening in order to lynch the most likely candidate (instead of randomly pick between most suspicious candidate and 2nd most suspicious candidate).

Was it not in WW11 that you were warning people from being overly reliant on Day1's voting? Saying that it didn't matter who voted for Jkaen vs Scooter, etcetera?

In any case, I know the current schools of 'greater logic' state that a focus on the process is greater than a focus on the results, but I think at some point we should look at the results and say "for this population, is this really the best process?"

I mean, by your process it was good for Commodore and Bigger to have a tie, but in looking at the results, the tie "that was engineered by Lewwyn and Sareln" ended up killing an innocent.

Perhaps it did end up giving us more information, but it also resulted in a mislynch. And not knowing the full set up, it is hard to know how many mislynches we can afford.

What has all that to do with the game on hand? What does it tell you in regards to suspects? And when we are at it: Where is that case against me? Can't seem to find it anywhere, you wouldn't know it now, would you? I mean voting for me and all that...

[Sareln]

Last night, I commented that Tasunke only joins wagons, he never starts them. Today he gets in the first vote. Earlier today Meiz commented that Tasunke's style from last game (spamming the thread) is distinctly missing. All of a sudden Tasunke is spamming the thread again. Now he's talking about whether or not, given the opportunity, we'd want to lynch a white wolf or a black wolf. Perhaps laying groundwork for a potential defense later in the day when it's him and another up on the block? None of these are proof, but taken together it's a rather wolfish feel coming from Tasunke right now. A newbie wolf trying to keep his style calibrated to what the village "expects" from him...

This is contrasted against the fact Meiz raises: that both Pling and Commodore pushed Tasunke heavily.

Incidentally, I'm pretty happy with what Meiz produced over the night. It makes a lot of sense to me.

@ Catwalk, why is that post from Gaspar so damning in your eyes?

@ Serdoa, Molach is, at the very least, a good policy lynch. I would love to hear some thoughts from him as well.

Molach

[Tasunke]

Patience Serdoa ... I am looking through the thread as we speak.

As far as the case against you, first I was already partially suspicious of you (even before I watched you, if you go back and find my Zakalwe/Gaspar/Serdoa voting trinity post), and then Gaspar brought up a point that out of possible risk takers, you would possibly be the likeliest wolf among the candidates.

I plan to be relatively active today though, so I am looking through the thread. As I said, patience.

[Tasunke]

Today he gets in the first vote.

I think I made my suspicion of Zakalwe known well before the Dawn broke.

That, and I happened to be on 2 hours before dawn broke ... and kept refreshing after the clock hit the "thirty minutes past" deadline.

I believe I was on for another day break (I forget which one), but iirc, I didn't have any obvious suspects, therefore I did not get in the first vote.

[zakalwe]

Let me try and postulate something more useful...

I wonder how the black pack feels about that kill. Instinctively I'd say early on you want to reduce villagers not wolves, but I don't really know how the mechanics work (i.e. does the surviving wolfpack get to kill every night once the other pack is dead.) At the moment, I'd guess there aren't a lot of experienced players in the black pack. Their kills have been questionable (Rowain always highly lynchable, pling also pretty lynchable AND another wolf, which seems suboptimal.) The white pack on the other hand - we have 2 dead members (MNG who didn't contribute to kill decisions one would think, being dead on day 1 and pling who's been a wolf before but not a "leader" type.) Their kills make a lot more sense - uberfish was looking innocent and Ichabod who was playing well AND basically gave them a free Mardoc mislynch. This leads me to believe there's an experienced player in the white pack.

Experienced players left who would be likely to make the uberfish/Ichabod calls AND have a personality where they could convice the team to take risks (both were risky kills, especially uberfish) :

zakalwe
Serdoa
Lewwyn
Meiz
novice

Novice has the requisite skill and experience, but is less of a risk-taker in these situations and not a "pusher." I won't eliminate him, but he's less likely in my mind.

Of the remaining 4? Well, zak has read most "off." Meiz has been most helpful. Lewwyn and Serdoa are the most "risk-taker." Interestingly, all 4 were on Bigger on the only day that individual votes really mattered - but as potential white pack members, that's irrelevant. Also, all but zak were not on MNG on day one. So let me knock off zak.

Serdoa, Lewwyn, novice - thoughts?

Apparently, you didn't specifically want my thoughts on this but I'll give them anyway. My first thought reading this theory was that you're a white wolf who's grumpy that the black wolves turned on you instead of following your own exquisite night kill strategy. I know this sounds awfully like my Rowain theory (the mod screwed us), but there you have it. Just giving you some honest insight into my first impression.

Now AFTER I got this impression, I reread your text more thoroughly, and while I'm no fan of pronoun slips, it IS interesting that you said "The white pack on the other hand - we have 2 dead members".

And even if we dismiss this pronoun slip as nothing but poor phrasing, it still feels like you simply crafted a theory to suggest that there must be at least one veteran wolf in play. It seems a bit... overengineered. Why not just say something like, "it's unwise to assume all the wolves are noobs, let's put some pressure on the vets", which boils down to pretty much the same thing.

TODO: Insert self-depreciating remarks here.