WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Doctor Saul]

I just can't...

Lewwyn, I agree that the switch there is infuriating but just like I said to Gazglum about you, you know you're not getting a novice lynch through right now.

You leaving a garbage vote on novice before not being around for the rest of the day would be equally infuriating.

If Gaspar wasn't defending novice here then why care who gets lynched between Novice and Q? I was thinking that he didn't want us voting novice, but instead what if he wants to make sure the miss lynch is Q?

[dtay]

So then. Either Brick or AdrienIer are scum. Or Commodore gave someone a bastard role. Should make for an entertaining discussion tomorrow. We know neither Brick nor Adrien will die tonight. One has to be scum, and killing the other would just make it clear which was which. Dtay is a pretty good candidate I think, based on his reads, unless he is scum, then obviously he is safe. Sunrise and I are safe, as we have spent too much time lurking, and make good (miss)lynch options. Saul seems to be a good lynch target, for much the same reason as dtay. That's everyone still in if I'm not mistaken. So Saul and dtay need to make clear their arguments/reads/etc in the next 24 hours.

Agree with this, it's pretty much certain Saul or myself is dying tonight. Going to do a full reread meaningfully before the deadline sicne could be last chance, should be sometime tonight.

[dtay]

I just can't...

Lewwyn, I agree that the switch there is infuriating but just like I said to Gazglum about you, you know you're not getting a novice lynch through right now.

You leaving a garbage vote on novice before not being around for the rest of the day would be equally infuriating.

If Gaspar wasn't defending novice here then why care who gets lynched between Novice and Q? I was thinking that he didn't want us voting novice, but instead what if he wants to make sure the miss lynch is Q?

Not following, why would Gaspar want the misslynch to be Q?

[Doctor Saul]

I mean, Gaspar had been saying that he was sure there was a scum in novice/lewwyn/myself. He doesn't have to join the push-- but why stick his neck out to keep people to voting novice?

This was one of the big scum moments for me against Gaspar, and it made sense if he was defending novice. But now it doesn't make sense

[Doctor Saul]

Not following, why would Gaspar want the misslynch to be Q?

Exactly.

[Doctor Saul]

Screwed up the formatting there, but I used italics to indicate my comments, hopefully that's readable.

I'm out of time for tonight. Brick that role sounds ridiculous. I put nothing past Commodore, but seriously?

Brickastley

Novice is town, Gaspar votes Brick after the claim ...

[Doctor Saul]

My gut says we need to lynch AdrienIer tomorrow.

[BRickAstley]

I'd like to point out that for BRick to pick me as a third target was a well thought-out move. He probably did hesitate as to who was the best target, but he chose to pick the green guy, use him to lynch novice then look horrified and win. I'm going to fight hard to prevent that.
I suppose you all see where I'm going here : BRick targets a scummy player and a newbie, gets everyone on the scummy guy while his scummate dtay shows some doubts about it and attacks me. Clever move. I already have two enemies, before the town has even had time to vote. I'm starting the next day at 2 votes vs 1, at a disadvantage before the vote even started. It makes a lot of sense for dtay to be the last scum, but tomorrow I'll vote BRick because 100% certainty is better than being pretty sure.

Well I am horrified, but it's not because of any gambit. I'm frustrated and angry at myself for feeling so sure about a second big mislynch this game.

I have to say you did a really good job so far this game AdrienIer. It's taken until now to really seriously suspect you, and you've played the last two days off well enough that you have a pretty good chance to hit me with a mislynch. It's going to be a fun day tomorrow.

I also have to say that sort of plan you mention there is pretty stupid. Why wouldn't I just pick two scummy people and get them both mislynched? And how would I have predicted that novice would advocate for lynching you and give forth the meat of the argument showing that you might be scummy?

[Doctor Saul]

I don't know what to say too much. I'm going to be at work when the deadline hits at noon PST, so I'm not going to try and be fancy and drop a last minute post. Honestly, I'm a bit shell-shocked after watching novice flip town.


Some things I know we have to do tomorrow:

1) We have to vote together as a town. We can debate, discuss, talk about anybody. But in the end we have to stick with those we think is town, otherwise we're left open to a last second switch and scum stealing the win.

2) We have to vote for either Brick or Adrien. We're living in 1 of 2 possible worlds. Either Brick lied and is scum, or Brick mistakenly chose AdrienIer and novice's lynch was a mistake. They both can't be innocent.

3) Go with your gut tomorrow. I think we've been looking at this trying to find the silver bullet and there isn't one. Scum is playing a great game; town isn't so. I was all ready to pat myself on the back for novice, and even as he sounded more town I still told myself he was the lynch that fit the facts. So I'll admit I'm not playing well with facts. So I say go with your instinct, make your best read. But in the end don't forget #1. Vote with the people you're most sure are town, whether that be dtay, or me, or sunrise.

I didn't get to re-read a lot tonight; there was a school meeting. But I did think about those Gaspar quotes I posted earlier, and there's an explanation that fits -- and if it is true then it's been executed very well. My gut read of this. Of the 2 possible worlds I mentioned above I thnk the second one is true -- I think Brick chose a scum target; he just got AdrienIer instead of Novice.

I also think the first one is true. I think Brick and AdrienIer are both scum, and the plan was to go something like this: In day 3, when the Q was on the block and novice and other people were pushing the case, Brick got the idea to push through the Q lynch and then claim he used his power on 3 people. One would be Gaspar, who the scum team night kills. The second would be novice, who he had been building suspicion on throughout day 3, up to the novice vote after Q's reveal. The third would be innocent AdrienIer, who most of the town had accepted. Brick says that he likes AdrienIer's posting more in day 3, but I can't say I see AdrienIer really doing much more upon looking at it again. He asks a lot of questions and does a lot of nothing.

That's why Gaspar was against switching off Q - they needed novice alive for the reveal. Then no matter how the reveal played out scum would get town points. If Brick is lynched then AdrienIer and Novice are both cleared. If AdrienIer is lynched then Brick looks like the bumbling hero but we know he was tellign the truth so he must be on our side. If Novice is mislynched then Brick is lynched in retaliation and again, AdrienIer looks like the town who was used to prop up a Novice mislynch.

Do I have evidence? Hardly. It's just my gut feel. It's how I see AdrienIer and Brick go back and forth now; it feels staged to me. How the end of Day 3 now seems like Brick could be playing up his emotion a little too much. It's like Jabbz said when he thought Brick wasn't being honest, and how dtay questioned why novice would be doing the night kill when under suspicion or why I asked Brick why he picked AdrienIer. Parts didn't add up, but the novice narrative fit so well we let it sit.

It would fit what we know of for Brick -- it would also mean Mattimeo was indeed actively bussed by both AdrienIer and Gaspar pushing him into the lead form a tie. To me that has a smell of a Brick plan. It feels right.

It's possible I'm wrong. I did detect Brick slept in his bed night 4 and AdrienIer is his bed night 3. It's more likely that one of them is paired with another person as scum than it is that they just alternated days to kill and I have bad luck. So if you don't think my explanation passes then don't take it. Go with your own gut. I'll do my best to listen if I'm around for it.

But my gut says we're going to nail a scum tomorrow.

[Doctor Saul]

I also think the first one is true. I think Brick and AdrienIer are both scum, and the plan was to go something like this: In day 3, when the Q was on the block and novice and other people were pushing the case, Brick got the idea to push through the Q lynch and then claim he used his power on 3 people. One would be Gaspar, who the scum team night kills. The second would be novice, who he had been building suspicion on throughout day 3, up to the novice vote after Q's reveal. The third would be innocent AdrienIer, who most of the town had accepted. Brick says that he likes AdrienIer's posting more in day 3, but I can't say I see AdrienIer really doing much more upon looking at it again. He asks a lot of questions and does a lot of nothing.

When I wrote Gaspar in this paragraph I meant to say Gazglum.