WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

I tried to be as neutral as I can with stating my opinion of the current game state. But here we go again..?

[pindicator]

@Sunrise
Okay, I looked back and here's what I see of that exchange.

There is no earlier novice question, I'm mis-remembering. I searched his posts, I searched my posts. The first appearance of it coming up that I can find is from Lewwyn asking me in post 358 if I will vote for Comm, and asking why I haven't voted for Comm yet. Then I respond what you quoted in #363

[sunrise089]

Thanks for your response pindicator.

[pindicator]

I tried to be as neutral as I can with stating my opinion of the current game state. But here we go again..?

I only repeated back what you accused me of.  Pot, meet kettle.  Or is tunnel vision worse than blind confidence?  I could share the deleted stuff that I am holding back on.

My issue isn't you opining on the game state.  My issue is that you never change that first opinion.  Congrats when you get it right.  And you deserve congrats for getting Commodore.  But you don't help the team when you stay this intransigent.

Okay, let's do the big dirty day-1 rewind post and I'll try to stay as neutral as possible because I'M PRETTY SURE WE'RE ON THE SAME TEAM.  Admittedly, this is a big copy-paste job from previous notes so I'm probably going to repeat a few things I've said earlier tonight:



Ode to Roland


I'm re-reading day 1 again.  I guess I will say evidence in my favor is to look at Commodore's reflexive vote when he wakes up in the morning Americas time, about 2 hours before deadline.  I'm using Alhambram's work as a starting point, but going through the votes and keeping my own tally.  Starting from post #259, about 5 hours before deadline:

Lynch votes
4 votes: Q (Rowain,Lewwyn, Gaspar,pindicator)
3 votes: Gold Ergo Sum (Gazglum, AdrienIer,Commodore)
3 votes: pindicator ( Meiz,Cyneheard,WarriorKnight)
2 votes: Commodore (Jabbz,novice)
2 votes: Gaspar ( Gold Ergo Sum, ,Q)
1 votes: Lewwyn ( sunrise089)
1 votes: Rowain (Kaiser, )
1 votes: Alhambram (Bob)

no lynch: Alhambram

I like this point as a starting point because things are very fluid here.  It starts with Rowain's first vote, where he joins Novice on Commodore, making things a 4-way tie for first place.  (#261)  As Gazglum later notes, this is where scum can swing things.  Interesting that we go to 4 first place players, and I'm sure Rowain was thinking of it.  I dont' think that's town or scum of him, I think he's looking for information of who votes where.  Actually, that seems a townish of him.  He doesn't say any of this, I'm tyring to put myself in his head.
Gazglum then switches off Gold Ergo Sum, and onto me (#266), putting me in 1st place, Q and Comm tied for 2nd, and any push to lynch GES is pretty much over at this point.
Gaspar then votes Commodore (#279) but makes it clear that he's open to moving his vote after he re-reads: 4 Pind, 4 Comm, 2 Thrawn

And now Commodore comes in:

EEE-*chirup* e'Eeeee ttickakakakatttata Eeeeee eee.
<Pindicator until I complete my reread. Were I a human I'd have meetings first though.

I think this is the biggest piece of evidence I can give that Commodore is not out to save me.  He comes in at early morning Americas time, about 2.5 hours from deadline, and announces that he's here now and hasn't caught up but that he's reflexively voting against me to save himself.  If he's trying to save his scum partner, voting off GES and onto Thrawn is the smart play here - no?  Sure, we can WIFOM if he was doing it as a ruse, but simplest explanation is he's putting it on the highest town to save himself before he reads the posts attacking him in thread to try and defend himself.

Anyway, this vote puts things now at 5 Pind, 4 Comm, 2 Thrawn.  If Comm and I were on a team, he could easily have voted Thrawn here and put Thrawn up within a vote of both of us.

Lewwyn continues to hammer Thrawn at this point and try to get people onto him over a number of posts starting at #302.  Interesting to me is that Meiz accusing Lewwyn of defending me in #310 and putting us as a scum pair, but now we're looking back at it as Lewwyn possibly defending Commodore.  In any case, this feels backwards.  Lewwyn is drawing a ton of heat here to go after the third candidate, but more importantly it's the candidate that he's naturally been pushing.  He reads honest here in his case, and I'll leave it to you whether you think that he has enough of a silver tongue to fake an honest case.  

Thrawn then votes me in #316: 6 Pind, 4 Comm, 2 Thrawn
And Lewwyn continues to hammer away for his vote on me.  Really, this is just stupid by Lewwyn if he is my teammate & Comm's teammate.  With two wolves on top like that you want to out yourself as a third?  And then cherry on top would be to nab the traitor.  I am not seeing Lewwyn as being Commodore's scum partner here, and I know he ain't mine.  He's not defending Commodore at all, he's defending his views that thrawn is scum.

I also like that Lewwyn is only the only of my accusers to properly read my posts about sunrise, which is what gave me a lot of my heat day 1.  He lays out a correct assessment of my sunrise posts in #324.  Again, I like Lewwyn's post in #328 as he lays out good logic about why people surmising that Lewwyn is trying to save me are just wrong.  He returns with another plea to vote for thrawn.

Kaiser then votes for thrawn in #331, and this is the post that is getting him some heat from Rowain today.  Also says he meant to vote for Jabbz in his last post (#276), which seems true since Jabbz was the only name in red and the others were in orange.  6 Pind, 4 Comm, 3 Thrawn

AdrienIer then votes for me in #332: 7 Pind, 4 Comm, 3 Thrawn

I'll repeat again here (for my own sake so I don't go down the rabbit hole again) that Meiz certainly should not be scum because he's pushing for a Commodore lynch just about as hard as Lewwyn is pushing for a thrawn lynch.  Lewwyn defends me again here in #336.  Maybe this is why Meiz suspects Lewwyn so much? Because they were both pushing for different scum targets?

I repeat my suspicions of thrawn in #337 and say Lewwyn's arguments are solidifying thrawn as a good lynch in my mind.  We're at 30 min to go.

Gaspar in #348 says that he thinks Pind could be scum and thinks Comm is scum. Then asks in #349 why nobody wants to vote for Comm.

Lewwyn asks me in #358 with 20 min to go if I'll vote Comm.  I reply in #363 that I would (yes, I would have if thrawn didn't get his late push), but that i thought thrawn was better.  This post is also where I get attacked for saying I cant' quickly read Commodore's posts because they're full of noise.

Lewwyn says in #366 he'd lynch Comm over me if it comes down to it.

Then in #368 (16 min left) AdrienIer votes for Thrawn: 6 Pind, 4 Comm, 4 Thrawn

And now the infamous Commodore vote, post #374.  Let's put the whole post in spoilers here too:

[/i]

EEeeeeee *CHIRUP*?
<This sucks. Still don't understand this damn case. WHO IS BEE BOY?>

What do you think of Pindicator?

So far no real opinion. I don't like his last post

I still don't feel good about sunrise, as I think Gaspar is as Gaspar as Gaspar can be.  But that was what I said about scooter - whatever, I stand by Gaspar seeming town.

That's a bit too wishy-washy for me.  OTOH I'm inclined to give pindi a chance to hang himself later if he is scum on not on Day1.


Other topic
This

Finally, I'm not sure I ever had enough of a baseline on you folks even when I played a couple of games in a row. After a few years though, I don't even remember roughly what your playstyles are like, much less if you're operating in a particularly scummy or town manner. I may or may note be up tomorrow by deadline, as I'm up way too late tonight, but I'm comfortable leaving my vote on commodore, mainly because I'm positive based on current trends that he won't be at risk today, thus my vote wouldn't be the deciding factor.

is as scummy as it can get.

As for Gaspar, he got roped into justifying his pretty random vote on Meiz, and then his justification got picked apart. That's pretty predictable and I'm not sure it's enough to convict. If we were to tone read the tone reader I'd say he's probably town, like all of us.

Commodore is on my allowed to lynch list, and I see no reason why he can't be scum.

Who are all the people on your allowed to lynch list? I'm sure you realize your vote on Commodore is very null, why is Commodore above others on the list?

I think I'll join the pretty lady for a while (and yes Q she is a pretty lady)

Commodore

There was one point made on Commodore that I liked - that he should have been able to parse Omar's posts. Not enough effort on Commodore's part there. So I'll stay on Commodore for the time being.

I could make a shortlist and reread those people. Maybe later.

Consecutive rereading from #212 on happens now, I have seen some post while researching the later persons on my list. I started Rowain, and then from the bottom up.

Gazglum, where does pindicator draw out people like you mentioned in #83 ?
Jabbz, whom or what were you answering to in #165?
Commodore, what do you mean with Lazy Omar in #168?
Sunrise, how would you categorize the players based on your post #196 after reading my above post?

- Commodore, can anybody enlighten me why Commodore was supposed to understand GES?

My take on that is that Commodore is a smart guy who’s into roleplay, so he should make the effort to understand what his suspect is saying instead of dismissing his post as unintelligible.

Kakakakaakakaa EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeyiiiiiirchip.
<Yeah, this seems weak. Now Pindicator...>

If it's Pindicator vs Commodore...

Pindicator, but I'd rather lynch GES or even WK.

Eeee *chirp* eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee yakakakcheeeee.
<I'd rather Pindicator than me, but the case for thrawn is stronger.>

[i]

This makes it 5 Pind, 5 Comm, 4 Thrawn

I noted right then how shady I thought Gaspar was looking, in #380.  Rowain asked me why.  Lewwyn attacks his post as saying he must think Pind & Comm are both wolves in #386.  Then Rowain swoops in and saves me (my hero ) with his vote on Thrawn in #398.  Now it's 6 Thrawn, 5 Pind, 3 Comm.  You could also look at this as Rowain giving Commodore a little bit of cushion, but really Comm needs 2 votes to pass both Thrawn and me now.  So unless there's a huge swing onto Comm last minute he's actually pretty safe here.

Kaiser then votes for thrawn in #401, probably a crosspost with Rowain.  It's also a repeat vote and doesn't change anything.

And Gaspar is asking for people to vote for Commodore but after i prod him Gaspar votes for me on #406.  This puts me tied again with Thrawn: 6 Thrawn, 6 Pind, 2 Comm.
Sunrise scores some major town points in #407, voting thrawn: 7 Thrawn, 6 Pind, 2 Comm
Gaspar rants now that both Pind and Comm are scum in #409
Thrawn then self votes in #410: 8 Thrawn, 5 Pind, 2 Comm
And novice casts the final vote right before deadline, against me


TL/DR:  Lewwyn is constantly hammering for Thrawn no matter who is in the lead.  He asks if I will vote Comm to save myself, states he will vote Comm over me, and is all but begging me at the end of the day to vote for Commodore.  I stuck to my guns on Thrawn because I saw Thrawn as scummy.  Surprise - he was!  Go back and read those exchanges and tell me they dont' sound like Lewwyn in 46 begging for people to vote for his preferred target there.  If you want to WIFOM him into being that good of a scum, you have to also WIFOM that he's that stupid of a Scum.  To save Commodore all he would have to do is stay back and put a vote on me.  He is unnecessarily putting a target on his back by doing the one thing we all should be doing day 1: voting for who we think is scum and making that case.

If you want to say anybody was trying to save me on Day 1, you should be asking Rowain about his vote since that's what took me out of the lead.  Except don't because Rowain is town.  The only reason you can think Lewwyn is scum is because you decided in day 1 that Lewwyn had to be on the wrong team to be disagreeing with you.  Instead you think you got everything right day 1 and found the whole scum team and never are willing to re-assess.  Okay, that last part isn't neutral but it's the damn truth.

[pindicator]

Thanks for your response pindicator.

Thanks for keeping an open mind.

Please do look at Cyneheard though.  I really think he's the next red flip.

[pindicator]

If you want to WIFOM him into being that good of a scum, you have to also WIFOM that he's that stupid of a Scum.

Repeating to re-emphasize. This is why I feel so confident about Lewwyn being town.

[Meiz]

Thrawn then votes me in #316: 6 Pind, 4 Comm, 2 Thrawn
And Lewwyn continues to hammer away for his vote on me.  Really, this is just stupid by Lewwyn if he is my teammate & Comm's teammate.  With two wolves on top like that you want to out yourself as a third?  And then cherry on top would be to nab the traitor.  I am not seeing Lewwyn as being Commodore's scum partner here, and I know he ain't mine.  He's not defending Commodore at all, he's defending his views that thrawn is scum.

Why would Lewwyn not be Commodore's scum partner here even if you are town? Commodore is in danger, and everyone excepts town-Lewwyn to make a case for scum. He picks a non-Commodore player and hammers away, and does the same thing D2 against WarrioKnight. You need to look at the agenda he has driven in this game, if you are town.

[pindicator]

Then why is he telling people that he doesn't see the case ON ME and that people who are trying to limit choices to me vs Commodore day 1 are missing the point???

[pindicator]

I mean, I'm in the lead and he's telling people to vote off me for thrawn. That's going to put Commodore in more danger!

[sunrise089]

I said this back during N1 - I think Thrawn was extraordinary scummy late in Day 1. So my answer in your scenario is Lewwyn was more confident at being able to sell people on the Thrawn lynch. I know not that many people were on Thrawn but as you say there was a TON of movement late in the day.