WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[pindicator]

Yeah, I'll admit it's possible sunrise. I just think we're doing mental gymnastics to make Lewwyn off to have played such a chaotic situation to perfection. The simple explanation is that he was scum hunting and was passionate about his case.

Please do look at Cyneheard. We're letting him slip by

[Rowain]

@pindi
There is the question why did C move from you to Q endangering himself?
There are 2 possibilities
a) to save you and lynch a townie = you are scum and Lewwyn maybe
b) scum thought Q is an SK Lewwyn = scum and  you maybe
c) Combination of a and b killing 2 birds with one stone - you and L are both scum

It was this move that spawned my idea of lynch C lynch pindi and in the end caught Commodore.

Again 30 minutes with no movement then (T-15 minutes)  Adrien moves from pindi to Q. At this very moment with 6 votes pindi 4  votes each on Commodore and Q
Commodore moves from pindi to Q endangering himself making the vote 5 - 5 - 4 That is why we need to know your alignment Commodore to know if this was a wolf who was happily bussing another wolf suddenly seeing a chance to save both by lynching Q

And as clarified:

To clarify my stand on the Commodore-issue:

His jumping from pindi to Q endangering himself close to the Deadline is very strange. If we lynch C and he turns out as scum it would warrant a very close look on pindicator. If C turns out as town we can look at others as that would be a null-tell on pindi and we can look and see how pindi plays today.

Well C turned out to be scum so..

Other matters
As there was a question of whom of the C-voters I'm most suspicious I want to add :
a) Not directly suspicious but I have reread Day2 and while his vote pushed C up again I find novice to be the most strange one. He went from sawing doubt about the Commodore-train (Questioning why is C scum?) to I might switch back to C at EOD to  using C-s attack on me to really switch. If there is a powerwolf going for deep cover it is novice.

b) Kaiser whom I have a problem with. For one his attacks on me are typiccal scum-attacks using weak accusations. How he -the man that reads so much and post such WoT's- can misunderstand "You voted for me" with "You voted with me on my target" and that even after  an explanation post that I don't suspect him for his Adrien-vote is beoyond me.

[Rowain]

Another note for pindi
One thing that has triggered my scumdar in your posts is your fixation on the roles. I get the feeling you try desperately to find a good role to claim to  avoid the gallows but with all those roles it becomes increasingly hard for scum to come up with one

So far:
Jabbz  beholder
Cyneheard watcher
Alhambram  neighbour
Kaiser   Backup/voyeur
sunrise089  neighbour
Gold Ergo Sum   tracker
Lewwyn  Hider
Meiz   1shot day-vig
Rowain  1shot vig

no claims:
novice
Bobchillingworth
Gaspar
pindicator

[novice]

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  [/vote].

Comign off the thrawn vote I saw the red and thought I'd caught a wolf off the bat. I was very proud of myself. When I realized it was a traitor and not a full wolf sure I wanted my effort to mean something more. Call it hubris, but I was caught up in it. When I got to the end of Day 2 I was very much locked into the idea thatt Comm was a villager. I wasn't tryign to save him so much as lynch someone I suspected. That's really all there is to it.

Just proomise me you'll lynch Cyneheard and Alhambram. Don't let his longer "data driven" posts fool you. I believe there is only 2 scum on WK. Comm and Cyne. I think alhambram rode the bus and after I do some more research I'll let you know whether I think Kaiser is the one riding Adrien at the end of Day 2.

I WANT TO POINT OUT THERE ARE ONLY 5 PEOPLE ON WK and THERE WERE 4 PEOPLE ON ADRIEN! WHy is such a done deal that all the wolves are on the WK train and not the adrien train?????

Just remember Gaspar if I live to Day 3 I get clarity. Judge me on my work today.

Not even close to caught up, but isn't "When I got to the end of Day 2 I was very much locked into the idea thatt Comm was a villager." a lie? I don't remember you ever saying that Commodore was town.

[Meiz]

I kind of hate where I am right now on the WK voters.  Leaving the others aside right now, there's three dudes of which there is almost assuredly one scum and most likely two, based on some combination of analysis of the first two days, the kills and specifically the voting analysis.  See this is why I like day 1 so much - there's no data and interactions muddying my thoughts, its just pure tone reads.  It makes it so much easier to scum hunt.  This day 1 kinda sucked because while the RP was fun and I wish there was still some of it going on for pure entertainment value, it makes it easier to hide tone.  Though I did catch Commodore on Day 1, I feel like if this was a normal day 1 I'd have a lot more right now.

Anyway, that's as woe as me as I'm going to get, let's look at the three candidates just based on what they've said/done today:

Weeb Fox

If I'm to be honest, I like his play today the most.  He has as good a manner as you can have when you're the obvious target.  It sounds like he's trying earnestly.  I guess most to the point, he sounds like himself.  The thing with Weeb Fox though, is that he likes rolling scum as much as he likes rolling town.  So I don't know that he's being a happy warrior is much of a tell.  But still, I think he's trying to hunt scum.  The gnawing voice in the back of my head also says that he knows the best way to get of the block is to do this.  I don't know, this is why I ignore Weeb Fox early normally - I need more data to be sure on him.  Plus he really knows how to buddy me. And of course, there's all the stuff from previous days that I need to consider but am faithfully not considering here.

Pindicator

Pindicator also sounds like he's trying.  Now he's a bit more temperamental (pot, meet kettle) so its a bit easier to paint a lot of his efforts as simply trying to evade the hook and honestly, I do think a lot of his effort is trying to evade the hook.  That said, he's been more engaged and if he is town, in his shoes I would also feel like I was played a patsy by the scum and I'd probably have a hard time not letting that color my reads.  But again, if you dropped us into the game right here and I was asked to evaluate simply based on today, I'd say he sounds towny.

Cyneheard

Cyne I discussed above.  The two posts I quoted felt very scummy.  He's not fighting the noose very hard which makes him easy to lynch, but that is often scum behavior - if you can't win the with your words, suffocate them with your self-pity.  Alliteration, always annoying.  Anyway, on the same rules, he's made the strongest case to be lynched so that's where I'm staying right now.

Lewwyn, I agree 100% with your post (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754278) that Pind doesn't have a good overview of reads in his head, which I think town has. Latest example is my question of Alhambra, which again comes off as "I need to re-read". So I don't think he's able to give gut reads on players because he needs to be careful with his words as a wolf. I would like to lynch him right after you.

Then if both you and Pindicator reveal as woves, I'm surprised to say I would like to kill Gaspar next due to his post above. It's as if someone clicked a switch on his head with the two townreads and how obviously scummy Cyneheard is  

Omar had the same thought.  Yesterday, Doc and Weeb Fox were like some old married couple bickering and griping and throwing accusations.  Omar half expect one of them to push their dinner aside and storm off to bed.  Trouble in 55 paradise.  

So what changed?   Neither were at risk then.  Now village got Weeb Fox dead to rights and suddenly he got a village feel to Doc?  Mmm hmm.

There are fancy distancing plays for wolves, and then there's a point where town's plan for the lynchings becomes unbearable. I think we're at that point in this game, which causes Gaspar's agenda to change as well.

Just catching up on the thread now, but had to pause here.

I made it clear that my thoughts were solely on the days activities.  While normally I believe in the theory of locking on and holding tight, in this case, I feel there is more information to be gleaned by trying to take an open mind to today.  I'm not saying I think Lew and Pin are town nor am I saying I'm dead on Cyne as scum.  I'm saying Lew and Pin have acted more towny today and Cyne has acted more scummy.  Might just be because they're better at the game, I don't know.  But I already know what I think of D1/D2 Lewwyn and Pin, so there's nothing new to be gained from considering it.  I'll tell you what I don't think - that all 3 of them are scum.  So there's a lot of value to me in seeing how today plays out before making my call.  I'm already learning a lot.

Why I think you are scum.

- You've sitted on sidelines today, not being eager to throw Lewwyn under a bus, because you would feel bad about it.
- I suspect the original post (quoted in the beginning) is a baiting attempt, see if there's a possibility to direct lynch towards Cyneheard today. Your accusation against Cyneheard (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754272) was very much of turning anything he says in bad light and as a clear scum sign.
- I am certain town-Gaspar would see through Lewwyn's play today and also comment on it more actively, instead of brushing it off as Lewwyn's play feeling like normal Lewwyn play (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754523)
- No comments on any of the points others have posted regarding Lewwyn-damning things (fishy role claim amogn others).

[WarriorKnight]

To be perfectly clear, I'd much rather vote for scum than either Lewwyn or myself.

Statler: We didn't make a fool of him this time.

Waldorf: No, he managed that all by himself!

Both: Do-ho-ho-ho-hoh!


I see the prophecy is coming true:

To all Town: As I cannot vote, I urge all of to vote Lewwyn today. pindicator is also an acceptable lynch, although for the sake of all of your mental health I highly suggest getting rid of Lewwyn first. Don't waste your time today trying to figure out why Cyneheard jumped ship to me during Day 2 voting or why Rowain shot a villager (to his credit, I also though that was a fine shot), there will plenty of time to figure that out after today. For my part I will ensure to get as much heckling in as possible to keep your spirits up as Lewwyn will undoubtedly drag them down defending himself kicking and screaming. I ask that you honor my sacrifice last night by voting for scum Lewwyn.

Waldorf: Lewwyn must really be getting desperate.

Statler: Mmm, desperation is a good sign. Maybe soon he'll panic and run away.

Both: Do-ho-ho-ho-hoh!

[WarriorKnight]

As I'm not terribly involved in today's lynching, let's take a look at the current tally:

7 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Cyneheard, Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice, Jabbz, Alhambram, Gaspar)

Waldorf: Yes, Lewwyn is certainly taking a beating out there.

Statler: Mmm, it's hard to feel sorry for him. We take a beating every post!

Both: Do-ho-ho-ho-hoh!



(yes, I already used this gif already. Sue me)

3 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Bobchillingworth, sunrise089, Rowain)

A+ for wolfiness, D for timing.

2 votes: Cyneheard/Elim Garak  (pindicator, Lewwyn)

1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)

I assume Kaiser is suffering from Jabbz syndrome, but I'll let it slide.

[WarriorKnight]

Yeah, I'll admit it's possible sunrise. I just think we're doing mental gymnastics to make Lewwyn off to have played such a chaotic situation to perfection. The simple explanation is that he was scum hunting and was passionate about his case.

Please do look at Cyneheard. We're letting him slip by

Statler: Poor pindicator, I dunno whether to believe him or feel sorry for him.

Waldorf: He wanted to make us believe him.

Statler: I feel sorry for him.

Both: Do-ho-ho-ho-hoh!

[Rowain]

WK: your posts and gifs will be sorely missed.

Can you please continue to make them in the Lurkerthread once your ghosts have moved on. Thanks in advance

[Meiz]

WK: your posts and gifs will be sorely missed.

Can you please continue to make them in the Lurkerthread once your ghosts have moved on. Thanks in advance

Yes