[spoilers] Pindicator and Regoarrarr - Bismark of Ethiopia

[regoarrarr]

Uh-oh, this makes me think I goofed. Where is the galley at?

He was 1SE of coneheads I think

[pindicator]

Oh! I know where that's from. No mistake, thank goodness. Yes, go ahead and unload him. We can't unload the other knight until next turn so I didn't bother this turn. It probably was best to unload the knight anyway, in case someone started something on the island and we needed the knight there.

[regoarrarr]

Okay I unloaded him. Took the time to check the combat odds in Char. A C2 knight will attack at 12 and his CG1 longbow, fully fortified, defends at 13.2 - so that's a 31.99% odds for us to win. He has 3 longbows currently in there (though only 2 of them are CG1), which means we should lose 2 knights.

Against the C1 spears, with 25% fortification and 50% culture, a C1 Shock knight has 68% odds and a C2 knight has 67.5%

So given that in the next 5-6 turns he's likely to get maybe 1-2 more longbows and/or spears (or pikes ), I'd say we are likely to lose 3-4 knights taking the city.

The other thing to consider is using Flanking 2. Knights inherently don't receive any withdrawal chances, but a F2 knight has a 30% chance. A Flanking 2 knight vs. that fully fortified CG1 longbow still has a 22.2% chance to win, but then has a 23% to withdraw (1 - .222) = 77.7% of losing, multiplied by 30%.

[regoarrarr]

Okay I spent more time than I wanted to trying to decipher Pindicator's arcane logistical notes and I have compiled them into logistical notes in my own arcane format

What I was wanting was to figure out where our knights will be and when they will be available. The below isn't quite accurate, since on most of these turns the knights are getting unloaded on the turn specified, so they will not have further movement on that turn. The one exception is on T189 - those 4 knights unload inside the city center of Coneheads on T189, so they can move to the staging tile on T189, to be part of our currently scheduled T190 attack.

==== MAIN FORCE ====
183: 2 knights and 8 horse archers (including our roaming sentry) already there
184: blue (1) in CH, red (BB-182 & DT-182) in CH, yellow (CJ-182 & MC-183) in CH, purple (2) in CH
185: red (CL-184 & OTOF-184), yellow (CJ-185 & MC-185), CH-185
186: blue (OTOF-185 & DT-185) in CH, HS-186
187: yellow (BB-184 & TC-184) in CH, purple (BB-186) in CH, green (2 WW knights) near HS, CH-187, HS-187
188: blue (OTOF-187 & TC-187) in CH, HS-188
189: red (BB-188 & DT-188) with movement in CH, purple (MC-188 & CL-188) with movement in CH, HS-189


===== NOT IN MAIN FORCE =====
190: yellow (OTOF-189 & TC-189) with movement in CH
1 knight out of WW (amphib hopefully iron pillaging knight)
1 knight born in CH on T190

=====
So if we take the knights up through T186 (excepting the one born in Hanukkah Song on T186) as part of the Western Expeditionary Force that is going after Xil (WEF), we have 16 knights going there and then 16 knights ready to be part of the Southern Expeditionary Force hitting Char on T0 (SEF). I thought we had 33, so I'm guessing the 33rd one is AHIPK.

I think I counted that Norm Macdonald and Oprah Winfrey will finish their current tasks with time to road the staging tile and then road the 2 attack tiles on T190. The other 3 workers can chop at Schweddy Balls.

IMPORTANT NOTE! Yuri has open borders with Commodore but not Cyneheard.

Tonight I will try to spend some time figuring out what our attack forces might be like if we attack earlier, because I think that bears some consideration - here's an old pic for reference.

[pindicator]

I think our MFG and Power boost has scared Krill. He revoled into Slavery, Theocracy, & Vassalage last turn.

Knight & Galley moves made, the rest I leave for you cause I'm going to bed.

[regoarrarr]

I think our MFG and Power boost has scared Krill. He revoled into Slavery, Theocracy, & Vassalage last turn.

Knight & Galley moves made, the rest I leave for you cause I'm going to bed.

Could be. But on the other hand, he IS at war with 3 other civs too

[regoarrarr]

Well as you probably saw, the game looks like it's down. And.... the last person to play was you, so if/when we get a reload, you'll have to play your turn again

[pindicator]

All right! Nothing like getting a second chance to screw things up!

[pindicator]

I missed the notice that we were back up and running. Can you handle the turn? I'm on my way out for the day

[regoarrarr]

I missed the notice that we were back up and running. Can you handle the turn? I'm on my way out for the day

Yeah. It's paused though so we have plenty of time. I don't think the turn is going to roll till the 13th (or maybe one more turn)