Werewolf 12: Game Thread

[zakalwe]

I did pick up on MNGs suspiciousness. As a villager, I assumed it was MNG being flaily and that he was as likely to be a power role as a wolf. But really more than anything, and I stand by this now even though the result worked for us, I prefer a closer vote on D1 to hopefully learn some things. So my not voting MNG had little to nothing to do with my presumption of his guilt and everything to do with wanting to prevent a landslide. I think a blind squirrel could see he was behaving suspiciously.

In short, I don't buy this. If you spot a wolf on day 1, you lynch him, landslide or not. To compare, day 2 was the opposite of a landslide - and what did we learn there? All we've got is a handy "shortlist" of 10 people who may have been trying to save Commodore. And although I appreciate the blind squirrel reference, that really reads like another insinuation that I must have been busing MNG. You know... since his guilt was so obvious that there wasn't even any need to vote for him.

[zakalwe]

What "thoughts" did you bring up in your post?

That your theory seemed like an overengineered way of saying "we should suspect the vets".

[Gaspar]

In short, I don't buy this. If you spot a wolf on day 1, you lynch him, landslide or not. To compare, day 2 was the opposite of a landslide - and what did we learn there? All we've got is a handy "shortlist" of 10 people who may have been trying to save Commodore. And although I appreciate the blind squirrel reference, that really reads like another insinuation that I must have been busing MNG. You know... since his guilt was so obvious that there wasn't even any need to vote for him.

Interesting. Let me break this into two parts.

Me: Again. I'm not indicating I thought I found a wolf. I'm indicating I thought he was suspicious. Given his previous choke on seer/baner (don't recall which) I was at least open to the idea he could be a strong power role AND I prefer a closer day one vote.

You: You have a very guilty conscience here, friend. First, you again feel the need to insist you're not part of the white pack which I think everyone has long since accepted - if you're a wolf, you're black. Secondly, you try to subtly reduce the impact of the Bigger vote on Day 2. We don't have a handy list of 10 - we have 6 Bigger voters and my Tasunke vote - people have died. Would you disagree that it is EXTRAORDINARILY likely that the members of the black wolfpack are in that group? Would you disagree that it is much easier to find presumably 2 wolves from a group of 7 than 3 from a group of 13? You've enjoyed percentages in the past - 28.5% vs 23%.

That post to me was incredibly scummy. zakalwe.

[Injera]

(cross posting big time with zak & Gaspar)

zakalwe, I'm still not satisfied with your role claim. Peck, peck, peck, I know, but you've yet to address the fact that the the reason you gave (to prevent a potential mislynch of Meiz and a role detector) was incredibly unlikely to actually occur.

Here's what it would take for a mislynch to occur from his power's use and need to claim during the night:

1) You gets lynched (a possible target, but the wolves had a target rich environment of people who supported both Comm/MNG lynches)
2) There's at least one alignment detector in the village (likely)
3) An alignment detector decided to look at Meiz on Day 2 (very unlikely)
4) Despite the wolf read the detector didn't try to make a case against Meiz on Day 3 (possibly likely if they're waiting to piggyback another claim, otherwise unlikely)
5) At a later date, the detector does make a case against Meiz (likely)
6) No one figures out the potential misdirection, or they do but Meiz gets lynched anyway (sadly, fairly likely)

If you start chaining all those probabilities together it just becomes extremely unlikely that there was a need to claim. 3) probably has less than a 5% chance by itself. You have what is most likely the strongest defensive role in the village, and you're claiming on a once-in-a-lifetime of WW game's shot.

It just seems more natural as a move played defensively. Both Meiz and I showed interest in looking at the end of the day when you claimed.

So, if you're a villager, what were you thinking?

[zakalwe]

Gaspar, I think the best place to look for white wolves is among the people who showed no interest in lynching MNG, and the best place to look for black wolves is among the people who showed no interest in lynching Commodore. Conveniently, you are in both groups, so I'm not too worried about the percentages. The 2/7 versus 3/13 comparison seems fallacious to me since we're talking about two overlapping groups, but whatever.

Injera, I'm sure you can think of at least one good reason why I wouldn't think it was a big deal to claim my role when I did. If you think I revealed too early, why push me to reveal even more?

That's it from me tonight.

[Molach]

Long day.

I actually had a post almost ready about 10.00 a.m. this (morning) but my youngest somehow managed to wipe it away with some well-timed keyboard thumping. It was what I am now restating about 15-3-3 and the pack setup theory below. Busy familiy day, but was still able to follow thread on phone, and even write up some cue-notes on the phone. So it is slightly old news, but I need to write up a lot of older thoughts.

First on the meta-game.
(Short version: The setup is 15-3-3 and the wolf packs are not identical.)

Is Noblehelium a liar? Anyone know him that well can give input on this? Because in setup thread he said (I quoted this earlier) either 16-5 or 15-3-3. He wanted input on which setup we wanted, signalling that two packs was probably more interesting, we responded that we wanted two packs.
"Two factions: Yes, lets try this."
"would be cool with trying 2 bad guys if somebody come come up with a viable system "
"Like multifaction personally, but it's harder to setup"
"Like the idea of multi-factions, but it doesn't have to be"

So to me it's pretty clear that we have the 15-3-3 system. Unless Nobliehelium lied about wanting input, and then lied about how the setup would be. So is he a lying type? I am so convinced about 15-3-3 that I'm actually wary of people fogging this to me clear and simple issue. 99.6 %, say. But my last 0.4 % is not that we have a 13-4-4 setup, but that it might be 16-5 (Noblehelium did not lie but found it impossible to setup a fair&balanced two-pack game) and that the colors wolves have are simply flavor and they are one big pack. Which is a very devious and extremely unlikely thing to do, but may still be within proper conduct which will not get him lynched in the lurker thread after the game.
So I did find Tasunke acting suspiciously trying to confuse the issue here.

Next point is the setup, balancing. There are some people believing the packs are identical. Novice does, and someone said Gaspar as well. Ichabod surely did, and it was believed that Mardoc had to be the white tracker for this reason. His failure to be that does not disprove the theory, but does not strengthen it either. And with Pling the killblocker unveiled, we find that if theory is correct, we know the full setup on the packs. Tracker, Killblocker, Announcer. While this setup gives perfect balance between the wolfpacks, my theory is that it is quite unfair to the total werewolf population. A roleclaim at this point would be pretty bad for the wolves, I find. The way to do it would be to ask our most scummy person (by some common consensus, mabye everyone gives everyone else scum-points 1-10) to claim, and then work our way through to the innocents. Idea is to try to catch the probable wolves lying by claiming 'wrongly'. ALL wolves have to lie, make it believable, and pray noone else has the claimed role or they hang. And since they are lying about roleclaim, they may find it impossible to follow up later on when asked to show their power. Even in the event that we do not agree on a mass claim, anyone making a credible claim, or mabye an iron-clad claim are automatically proven villagers. Not just non-white or non-black, but villagers. So my theory is that our Moderator thought about this, and that the packs are balanced, but not identical. We have no proof either way, so if you just rethink - how would you setup the game? We will surely win if they are identical so why not be pessimistic like me and assume not? This is not in my own interest, I am not a tracker, killblocker nor announcer so I can claim without lying, and I think I have a good chance to prove my claim beyond any doubt (bad luck and it would just be very reasonable). I'm sure some of you have it same way. So if not mass roleclaim, we can have a mass-use-our-powers-in-a-way-that-proves-us-innocent night and then end up with a relatively small group of suspects left. Anyway, I am of course sold on my idea, so just posting something about what I think this means. It means, naturally, no mass roleclaim nor use power night. Also it means noone is safe even if we believe they have claimed something besides tracker, killblocker or announcer. And finally, I think that commodores black pack believed in identical packs. They might have made him claim vanilla to avoid lying because they imagined tracker claim would be damning to other pack. If so, we might be lucky enough to find a black wolf among the identical-pack advocates. Ichabod made the identical point, but he ain't black, novice also did and still does. Mabye anyone else, did a quick search around the time commodore claimed, and found those 2. And this is mabye a long shot because they might have been smart enough to only speculate about identical pack setup in their wolfthread.

Now on to how I feel about some people.

Novice.

Molach, you have some good points there, but "postponing" the Mardoc lynch is a terrible idea

Well, only terrible if he was a wolf. You were perhaps the most assured of his guilt, at least by posting, and that actually comes across as slightly villagerish. Think wolf would have either shut up or been less sure in the posting, and later point back to that ambiguity when he flipped village. You might be a wolf who though Mardoc was a wolf, though.
A bothering, if not directly wolfish, is your follow up of Zakalwes 'woodpecker' attack on Injera. Why would a village be interested in having people posting less? What if Injera had clammed shut with minimal content after that - would that have helped the village? More 'gray eminenses' is hardly good.

Okay, about power roles. One of the main arguments against Tasunke is that an investigative villager role that works every other night is unbalancing for one of the wolf packs. However with Mardoc's death we know that such a role does actually exist. So does this mean that Tasunke is even less likely to be villager, since this would exacerbate the imbalance? I think not, either NH would view such a role as problematic and avoid it, or he wouldn't.

Maybe our assumptions are wrong and there is indeed an A-B-B-A-A-B-B kill order as suggested by some.

So just going on the metagame I would guess we have a villager Watcher+Follower+Voyeur and no Seer. Coupled with symmetric wolf packs, Announcer+Tracker+Killblocker. Four wolfs in each pack sounds crazy and I don't think I have enough suspects to fill the slots either.

I think a mass claim could be useful at this point although I'd rather not reveal my own role. I doubt we have many good villager power roles to expose anyway, I don't even think we have a baner.

This post just to illustrate the symmetrical wolf pack theory, and where it takes us. You also clear Tasunke on the metagame here, confirmed later.

[(Case against Pindicator & Gaspar) ]
Tasunke is almost parodically scummy at times, but surviving on metagame considerations instead of a villager feel. If there really are 8 wolves I think he must be one of them.

I guess these are my top three to lynch.
[...]

Now you are discussing top lynch-candidates, and just note that you still think Tasunke is acting real scummy. But why not say out loud (in first of these posts) that metagame will clear Zakalwe and Lewwyn as well? At least people were suspicious about Zakalwe so it would have been useful for some. Did you not think about it, or thought it too obvious to merit mention? Or some other reason?

Serdoa.
I read him with innocent feel still. His desire to lynch me after Mardoc just feels unwolfy to me. It indicates that he really thought both Merdoc and myself were wolves, which somehow lessens the chance of him being one. So still feeling village here.

Pindicator.

Molach, the paranoid voice in the back of my head thinks that sounds like you expect Mardoc to flip villager and are trying to set up more obvious targets on the next day.

This, however, might be more of an informed member who has reason to suspect that Mardoc was, in fact, innocent. If you were in one pack, chance of a random person being rival wolf is quite a bit lower. And mabye a wolf might know for a fact that the identical pack theory is rubbish, weakening the case against Mardoc. You may however explain the second part a bit more closely now, since he did flip villager. Who am I trying to set up, who are 'more obvious targets' now? Why not just keep silent and kill obvious targets regardless? I fail to see how I could be sure he would be villager if I was a wolf. He might still, lower odds and all, be rival pack in which case my defense would smell very fishy and put the spotlight on me. Hardly wolfish move, I think. So you can perhaps clear up what you meant by this.

Meiz.
Serious vote against me, apart from inactivity votes I got in the beginning. You have looked helpful and villager all game, and you are starting something new here, not following along. Okay. To answer your case, first I think should have said something about last day and me sticking my neck out there. You were my sole convert, switching off Mardoc to Zakalwe, so no comment on my play that day?

One thing that stroke a bit odd was her [Pling's] minor suspicion against Molach at the start of day 3.
At this point votes where (and I hope I get it right this time):
Commodore (3) - pindicator, novice, Jkaen
Jkaen (3) - Lewwyn, Meiz, Injera
Tasunke (2) - Gaspar, zakalwe
Molach (1) - Commodore

I think the signs where up in the air that Commodore was going down that day. And Commodore was one of pling's suspects. Later Molach makes another big post and pling continues
"Well, that's not you off the hook as far as I'm concerned, Molach, but it's a definite step in the right direction - so I'll move my vote from you."

If there were any distancing attempts between pling and his [her!] pack mate, I'd say this is the most likely one.

Plausible. But the vote on me was for inactivity, so after my post she had to move it off or come up with a reason.

- Knew the game was started (said at half way of day 1), but didn't participate at all. "Wolf would not do it" is a nice excuse for this.
- "I'd be a horrible wolf" and "I would not pull off another Molach" posts.

I think the excuses would be better if I didn't make it myself but let someone else defend me with them.

- Regarding Commodore: "If he is wolf, I'd say he is not with MNG's pack so if this theory is right we should gain more knowledge about pack makeup.
(I'd say a white wolf would be quite interested to proof that there is in fact another pack. Otherwise people would be just looking for whites :])

Well Commodore was not in MNG's pack. And I've been pretty convinced about two pack setup for quite a while. All game.

- Said: "Pling. I'm leaning village here. Seems sincere in what's posted so far, felt right and truthful. Also Bigger felt so. And I agree with what she said about how Tasunke should use his power, at his own discretion."

(Later made a small suggestion that pling could be one of the wolves, but it was only small sentence (half hearted guess, I'd say), not a real case against her)

Well before she croaked I was still leaning village. Slightly less so because of Mardoc's accusations, as I posted, but still. And I suspect the wolfpack that killed her did not know she was wolf either, but targeted someone not too obvious to kill undisturbed. So I'll admit being wrong about her. Think I was not only one. Would I write 'leaning village' after the distance attempt earlier? I did not mention quite a few guys at the time, why not just ignore her as well?

I think these are just terrible reasons to not vote against someone:
[i]"Another thing against Commodore is that we would not learn much from a mislynch now - I mean, if he is in fact village then everyone except (then-afk) Gaspar voted for two villagers"

"why not just look at votes, and say 'okay [Mardoc] is going down' and lets just agree to let him live 2 more days? Give him another shot at scouting a wolf? Nothing like a bit of pressure, find a wolf or hang."

Substitutes [Mardoc] for 'him' in that post to make it clear.
Okay first one is probably sub-par play, because he was claiming vanilla and one has to lynch someone eventually. But I maintain that the second one, about saving Mardoc, was not terrible. Not just because of hindsight but because of the roleclaim which might have been tested out. I think I was was pretty consistent on Commodore in the end. And since I presume I am a white wolf suspect since you bring up Pling the white in your argument, then my shilly-shallying about commodore does not make sense - I would leap at the chance to crucify a black wolf.

"Have been suspicious about Zakalwe a while, but redirector is a very good protective role."

I don't know, maybe we just think different. But with this unknown setup, I don't think it makes sense not to vote for people you suspect, just because of his role.

But I suspect quite a few people. Some more than others. Have written a bit about Zakalwe this game, as he is experienced and smart, so more important to know his alignment, but I also suspect some silent guys, and better to kill any one of those instead. Hard to lay a good case against the silent. I think I have stated a few times that I'm wary and undecided about Zakalwe too. Not my top suspect.

Gaspar.
Varied signals all game, but this

As far as the black pack? Gun to my head two of Jkaen, Molach, Sareln. Molach can't really roll wolf everytime can he? We're going to have to start replacing uberfish with him in the meme.

was suspect. That can't-roll-wolf-every-game"defence" is worthless and rang a wrong tone with me. Somehow didn't sound like an arguement a villager would even mention.

Sareln.
Mentioned him as silent guy, but I did agree with much of the pack-posting he did last night.

If Tasunke is innocent, then if the packs are to be balanced, I think it would imply another werewolf-aligned investigative role.

Voyeur, Follower, Watcher, Tracker, Another_Role

I wish to add that in the mafiawiki there is NO "Another role" similar to those 4. They are lumped together. "Another role" could be seer, I guess, but hard to balance. So I think easier explanation is that Tasunke is guilty and is a wolf watcher. But anyhow, would like more content about other suspects from you, not just metagame and Tasunke.

Tasunke.
You are suspect. However people have said that you are not white, which is what my balancing-meta issues make you out to be. So more investigation needed. You will also watch someone the coming night, so finding the white wolf tonight cannot hurt. Nothing like a bit of pressure, find a wolf or hang.

---

Well perhaps thats enough for now. Not including last 2-3 hours or so.

I'll vote Pindicator as my most likely suspect now.

[Injera]

Thanks for all that Molach. A few thoughts...

1. I also believed in mirrored packs because of the dual announcers. This was in the context of what I thought was a 13-4-4 set where the village would need more information to figure out the pack roles. I think 13-4-4 is still a real possibility; the potential, necessary really, of wolf-on-wolf violence just makes it incredibly hard for the wolves to win in 15-3-3. Do you think it's plausible NH set up the game, realized that and added an extra wolf to each pack?

2. Even if you don't believe in mirrored packs, do you think a mass role-claim could still be useful?

3. When you say the pling lynch was the other pack trying to find a safe target, doesn't pling seem too safe a pick?

[Injera]

Injera, I'm sure you can think of at least one good reason why I wouldn't think it was a big deal to claim my role when I did.

Fair enough. I guess I was expecting a different reaction the first time I asked.

[Lewwyn]

Gaspar you magnificent fuck. You did it. You drew out the wolves to use you as a mislynch. Not so useless after all!

Ok, I have a few minutes to sum up my thoughts.

As I said earlier, Pindicator has been getting away with a lot of questionable behavior based on a general villager feel. Especially with regards to Ichabod. For me the villager feel has dissipated, and by his own admission his logic is useless, so I see no downside with lynching him.

Gaspar is also pretty useless, which is a dangerous defense to let people get away with. Uberfish pushed for his lynch on day one, that may have been very good advice. He does seem to be trying with some of his latest posts.

Tasunke is almost parodically scummy at times, but surviving on metagame considerations instead of a villager feel. If there really are 8 wolves I think he must be one of them.

I guess these are my top three to lynch. As Lewwyn said, it's crunch time - all the obvious candidates are gone.

P.S. I can dig up specifics on the cases against my scum suspects if there's interest - I expect most people recognize what I'm referring to though (but may disagree on interpretation).

Are you kidding me?? This is a who's who of mislynches! Pin I've talked about. Tasunke is innocent IMO as well because I have never felt anything really scummy from him + his roleclaim was made before any of the wolves roles were revealed and it is claimed to be different from the tracker role. Mardoc had a slight variation as well and turned out to be innocent. There's no way Tasunke made up a role to cover the fact that he was a mirror of another wolf pack.

And Gaspar, I've pushed him today and I've seen the truth. He just hasn't been giving two shits about this game for most of the time. I'm happy he finally decided to pay attention. But its obvious that he voted Injera without a clue and then realized how improbable it was and went elsewhere.

Reading this I thought of an educational film: "Uselessness: A Dangerous Defense".

This post doesn't sit very well with me at all. A nice bouquet of choices, with some questionable hunting strategies, and a kindly follow-up offer to confirm our suspicions on whichever one we're feeling the least confident on.

Injera I could kiss you.

Gaspar you're right on BOTH Novice and Zak. Can we please pick one today? I'm in favor of novice as there is already some action on him.

[Lewwyn]

Hmm. I actually like those lists. pretty well. If I combine them with what I get weird vibes from I'd say I like Molach or novice from white and Sareln and zakalwe from black.
[/COLOR][/b].

Agree, agree 100% agree!