WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Meiz]

But that line of thought wasn't enough to sway you.

No, not at that point. Most likely would have at the end game.

Why do you think Maniac is a misguided villager?

One part is the night time whisper. If it was sent by NAP, I'm starting to think it was just for chaos purposes. Too risky to actually include one Nap member for double bluff purposes. If it happens that we find out that the message was sent by some neutral party, I will definitely reconsider this. I seriously doubt it was sent by a villager.

I guess "misguided villager" category for him is a bit too optimistic, so more close to "slightly suspect".

[Serdoa]

That's actually a bit misleading

"If Meiz wasn't NAP = Injera is NAP" is what I think would have been the conclusion after my death.

Neighbor pairs:

Meiz <-> Tasunke
Injera <-> thestick

Can you please explain in detail for me why in the world we should have assumed that Injera is NAP, just because you got nightkilled. I mean it would only show that you and Tasunke are both villagers (=the full neighbor pair) so the conclusion from a metagame standpoint would either be

- the other pair only consists of NAP (not likely)
- the other pair consists also only of villagers (very likely)
- the other pair includes one Napper (probably thestick as Injera has according to this thread the same abilities as you AND thestick was much more suspected before I brought up Injera)

In no way do I see any reason to suspect that the village would have assumed that Injera is a wolf when you would have been nightkilled. If the wolves have not just not killed you because you are one of them than they didn't do it because you have not helped the village till now.

[Meiz]

Ok, so maybe I'm wrong.

[Molach]

Justin case: I think the wolves did not want to lynch Injera for cover last day. My changing to injera and just staying there was prolly not foreseen after my secret writings with 90 % sareldn-related stuff. I can say I did it because my reveal laid my game wide open, ready to be manipulated by wolves. So I had to break the pattern. I had my own misgivings about I, and I really trusted those two who went for him before me. It was also to avoid a spread vote for possible NAPpers that would be neutralized by a mislynch yet again, so I took it to 3.

So I think the result is more telling. Last game we wolves (or mabye rest of them, I was probably lurking that day) decided pretty early on to bus Injera and Slowcheetah. Decided it was a lost cause early on, so it gained more cred. This time I feel they were trying to get selrahc mislynched, or failing that, thestick. I was feeling a bit gloom about village chances before last day, too many leads, nothing concrete. And a mislynch then would tell us not much. I think the wolves realized this too, and perhaps two quick mislynches is all it would take. Hm, anyone count the mislynches we got, done some theorizing about what if they double kill, or we prevent a kill. I would but don't have time.

Lets see, assuming no deep cover by bussing injera:
Villagers: Me, Lewwyn, Serdoa, Selrahc, Bobchillinworth,
(IMO) very likely villagers: Waterbat, thestick.
Grey zone: Sareln, BRickAstley,
Red zone: Zakalwe, Meiz, Jkaen

Now that is from how lynch played out. Waterbat likely villager for earlier efforts, thestick because why have two NAP neighbours (however GM might well have done this, just to teach us not to play by roles but hunt old-style. Or he assigned NAP completely randomly)

Grey zone: For droneness. They did the right thing in votes, but one was perhaps to gain coved by bussing, other was too late to matter. It's likely Injera surrendered (like last game) and told to switch votes, but it was IMO not done early in the day, likely ad-hoc later on. Anyway they are grey for being drones. Sareln, for0' why have triplicate village role', BRick (if Sareln village) for 'why have role to screw with villagers if youre village'. (however GM might well have done this, just to teach us not to play by roles but hunt old-style. Or he assigned NAP completely randomly). Heh.

Red zone. Red for being veteran players with a suspect voting. Also why are you still alive again? You have some explaining to do. To quote a certain film; If you lie, we killya. If you hold back anything we kill ya. If you bend the truth, or we think you bend the truth, we kill ya. In fact, you're going to have to work very hard to stay alive the next few days. Do you understand me? Cuz if ya don't we kill ya.

As we have 3 more wolves, could easy be the 3 red. But pretty likely only 2 red, and either one grey, or one of those on (likely)village list. And bloody hell, mabye just 1 red and 2 others. But if all red are innocent this game I'll eat my shorts.

Just put this out, we are approaching endgame, and there is a theoretical chance I'll die tonight.

I personally think Zakalwe is most likely NAP of them, just by how he voted and wrote in defense of Injera. But misguided villager would do that too.

[Molach]

And even if I hinted twice, I would be wary of using meta-game-setup speculations to damn either zakalwe or meiz. Both have left much writings earlier days so advice to forget about how likely it is that Bigger setup this or that way and just use the scumdar. Worked for Injera.

[Molach]

Ops forgot maniac. No intention. Well you can be grey too, even if you're not a drone.

Not gonna post more tonight, see who is standing tomorrow.

[Serdoa]

And even if I hinted twice, I would be wary of using meta-game-setup speculations to damn either zakalwe or meiz. Both have left much writings earlier days so advice to forget about how likely it is that Bigger setup this or that way and just use the scumdar. Worked for Injera.

Before this gains traction:

[SIZE="3"]I suspect Meiz NOT for metagame-reasons.[/SIZE]

What I delivered is not some stupid "Bigger would never have done this stuff". Read my posts guys. Meiz outed himself in his posts when he talked with Injera about his role. They tried to make us believe they are both villagers and screwed up just a little. I am only surprised that thestick didn't mention their screw-up earlier, he should know, he is neighbour as well.

If you don't believe me, easy exercise: Put Tasunkes role-PM and Injeras role-PM next to each other, read what it states about their neighbor-role. See the difference? Yeah, and then read Injeras and Meiz conversation about their neighbor-role. Realize that they have the same role while Injera and Tasunke do not. Conclusion? Meiz is the same alignment as Injera = NAP.

And yes, zak is probably a NAP as well. He might even be their roleblocker. But I'd rather lynch the NAP we can be certain about now and discuss the others later. We'll have 2 more nightkills (at least if Selrahc doesn't get lucky) if we first lynch Meiz which should make it much easier to find the last 2 NAPs.

If there are 2 more NAPs that is. Maybe we have only 4 + 2 aliens. I wrote it earlier, I don't trust Lewwyn. Yes he helps the village right now and quite frankly even if his win condition is "Get Marr killed" and if he "wins" he disappears I am happy to give him his win-condition as soon as we are certain that we do not get screwed by the two aliens being out of the game. But I am not certain about that, so I would be really cautious to put him in the village-camp and forget about his special role.

[Meiz]

Serdoa, if that's not metagame reasons, I don't know what is.

Did you even read my earlier post? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1238

If you don't believe me, easy exercise: Put Tasunkes role-PM and Injeras role-PM next to each other, read what it states about their neighbor-role. See the difference? Yeah, and then read Injeras and Meiz conversation about their neighbor-role. Realize that they have the same role while Injera and Tasunke do not. Conclusion? Meiz is the same alignment as Injera = NAP.

Why do you compare the role descriptions of Tasunke and Injera? They are different roles. I bet thestick has the same description as Tasunke had.

[Meiz]

JRed zone. Red for being veteran players with a suspect voting. Also why are you still alive again? You have some explaining to do. To quote a certain film; If you lie, we killya. If you hold back anything we kill ya. If you bend the truth, or we think you bend the truth, we kill ya. In fact, you're going to have to work very hard to stay alive the next few days. Do you understand me? Cuz if ya don't we kill ya.

Nice Just got another idea for "why he's still alive" speculation. Wolves knew my ability is identical to Injera (well, they could at least make a sure bet). My ability sucks.

[Serdoa]

Serdoa, if that's not metagame reasons, I don't know what is.

Did you even read my earlier post? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1238


Why do you compare the role descriptions of Tasunke and Injera? They are different roles. I bet thestick has the same description as Tasunke had.

Yes exactly, Injeras and Tasunkes role descriptions are different because they have different roles. Injera is a NAP-neighbor, Tasunke a village-neighbor. I also bet thestick has the same description as Tasunke, you know why? Yeah, because he is a village-neighbor.

Now, who else does have a similar description than Injera? Oh right, thats you Meiz. Yes you now state it is different, but in your first post about this topic (which is linked in the post you now linked) you described that in your role description you are told that Tasunke is unsure of your alignment. And thats the same in Injeras role description regarding thestick. But Tasunke didn't have that part included.

I mean, read your own interactions with Injera on that topic. You both told us on several occasions that you have the same role. You even once wrote that you are happy to know now that he is not your evil counterpart. And now you tell me "no no no, my role is different". Yeah, I am sure.