WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Rowain]

You want a theory with the post he wrote to go with that vote though (#373)? Imagine you're scum, you wake up to find a train on you, you've got over 100 posts to read and then try to defend/vote on. So you park your vote on the person with the highest votes then try desperately to scramble a defense.

I can see him do that. But that is also not the problem. The train for him was not leaving station. The strongest pushers were sitting on Q (Lewwyn) or you (Meiz). None of the Commodore-voters are that good at getting their target lynched.

When he posts its a flurry of quotes of his attackers: You, Meiz, You again, Novice. Which attacker is missing? One of his more vocal. What if you're so pressed for time that you are only focusing on the attacks from people not in your team?

Night 1 you told me Gaspar wasn't likely scum because him pushing a town Comm was high risk low reward. Does that still apply now that we know Comm is scum? Something to think about after I'm gone. But right now if the scum aren't all in the lurkers then Gaspar is the first place I'd look out of the towny players.

You raise an interesting point here. But to be fair Gaspar was also calling you lynchable and scummy during day 1. Yes one can construe a case that Gaspar is scummy (in light of Commodores scumminess) for example his asking Lewwyn to give him a reason to move to Q. I don't think Lewwyn answered that.

[Lewwyn]

Just want to ask the questions that's been rattling in my head all night as I went to sleep:



WHY WOULD I KILL WARRIORKNIGHT! IT ONLY MAKES ME LOOK GUILTY! IT PROVES THAT I WAS PUSHING A VILLAGER! ITS A FRAME JOB PURE AND SIMPLE! YOU GUYS ARE SO DENSE BULLETS WOULD BOUNCE RIGHT OFF YOU!

[Rowain]

Bye WK  G

[Lewwyn]

I want to point out that should I survive today my role is distinctly townie as opposed to all the information gathering roles that have been claimed. It's also something that can be proven. Allow me to prove that innocence and the claims of other PRs overnight. We are 2 nights in already and the village power roles haven't been able to do anything except eliminate a villager.

[Rowain]

@Lewwyn My question and WK answer:

Another question for the tree stump

After your long post before DL. Lewwyn wrote a long post where he outlines you are scum (also way too early). Do you think it possible that the combination of those 2 posts were the reason you got killed?

Lewwyn was going to get alot of heat already but with that 2 posts and you dead it increased the chances of him getting lynched considerably.

I agree with Meiz that wolves are playing the long game here. I had already shown that I was the kind of villager who sticks to my reads rather then willing to be easily persuaded by arguments. As wolves, the latter type of villager is preferred to keep around longer as they are more likely to be persuaded by arguments made by wolves during the day, which I currently believe Cyneheard fell victim to.

Or if your question is 'if Lewwyn is a wolf, why did he bother responding to you if he was going to nightkill you?' I believe it is because Lewwyn is not the type of person to let someone damning him go unanswered regardless of his alignment, and believes he can talk his way out of anything (which, to his credit, he probably could). But no-one truly knows the answer to this except for Lewwyn. At the end of the day, Lewwyn is still plenty suspicious enough even before having made a counter argument too early, and by no means does simply making a counter argument to my death note resolve him of anything else wolfy he's done this game.

[Lewwyn]

@Lewwyn  My  question and WK answer:

Another question for the tree stump

After your long post before DL. Lewwyn wrote a long post where he outlines you are scum (also way too early). Do you think it possible that the combination of those 2 posts were the reason you got killed?

Lewwyn was going to get alot of heat already but with that 2 posts and you dead it increased the chances of him getting lynched considerably.

I agree with Meiz that wolves are playing the long game here. I had already shown that I was the kind of villager who sticks to my reads rather then willing to be easily persuaded by arguments. As wolves, the latter type of villager is preferred to keep around longer as they are more likely to be persuaded by arguments made by wolves during the day, which I currently believe Cyneheard fell victim to.

Or if your question is 'if Lewwyn is a wolf, why did he bother responding to you if he was going to nightkill you?' I believe it is because Lewwyn is not the type of person to let someone damning him go unanswered regardless of his alignment, and believes he can talk his way out of anything (which, to his credit, he probably could). But no-one truly knows the answer to this except for Lewwyn. At the end of the day, Lewwyn is still plenty suspicious enough even before having made a counter argument too early, and by no means does simply making a counter argument to my death note resolve him of anything else wolfy he's done this game.

WK doesn't know me very well as a wolf. Has he even ever seen me in action as a wolf? You should know me much better Rowain. Do you really believe WK's answer or are you just hiding behind it.

[pindicator]

Well to be a little cold about Cyneheard's situation, seeing Cyneheard's alignment will be a help at end of day. I think if he is scum then it will be a point in favor of myself/Lewwyn (whichever survives). If town then points against us and Gaspar.

@Rowain - I never addressed your role claim theory, but I have no worries because I'm not going to be anything other than truthful. I will claim when and if called upon by the group but I don't think it will convince anybody who already thinks I'm scum.

Lewwyn, are you giving up so easily? I thought I was the mopey one. I'm going to vote Gaspar though I'm not good at shepherding voters even when I'm not maligned. Still will self vote to save Lewwyn if it comes to it. I know it seems silly but I have my reasons

[Meiz]

What do you mean with Lewwyn giving up easily?

[pindicator]

I read his rage post as being despondent. And voting for me is like giving up on what he had been doing, trying to hunt scum.

Yeah, I've followed him a couple times. But often my read have lined up with his. I can't prove those times but I was going to make cases against Thrawn and WarriorKnight myself but he beat me to the punch. We both have suspicions of Gaspar though he hasn't explained his much (that makes the little voice in the back of my head wonder, I admit).

I will admit that I have a hard time seeing the scum team composition if Cyneheard turns up town. I think you'd have to have one of Gaspar/Lewwyn be scum in that scenario. Then there's 2 more - Bob? He pushed the WarriorKnight voters theory. Still another though

[Lewwyn]

Yeah you're right pin. I still don't trust you but last night as I was turning everything over in my mind I kept thinking about this post:

I don't really know what to say at this point, I just read like 150 posts and what I got out of it is that several players are getting irritable and everyone is sort of waiting to see how Weeb Fox/Pindicator turns out and so this day is pretty much a wash.  The only ones doing much if any attempted hunting by my admittedly skim read are Weeb Fox, Ol Dirty T (this was great GES) and Alhambram and I wouldn't in the slightest be surprised to see two of those flip scum.

We have to hang a WK voter today.  There's a lot of info in how people have tried to steer the post-lynch landscape right now that we'll have to come to tomorrow, but the combination of likelihood of hitting scum and the info to be gleaned from that players interactions post-death is too alluring to make any other choice.

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  Both of those times, he felt super scummy.  The rest of the time, he's felt like normal Weeb Fox.  But that, plus the circumstantial evidence, is enough for this Doc to declare that it isn't Lupus, its Weeb Fox.

Take a look at the bold. Gaspar preached looking at other suspects today, but in the end he only looked at Cyneheard and then decided on me. I'm normal except for the two moments that honestly if you just believe it make sense as a villager. Gaspar condemns me on Day 1 and 2 votes but disregards my Day 3 entirely. Gaspar and I have had many conversations and he knows that Day 3 is when things become clearest for me. The fact that he is not taking those to heart. That fact that he pushed Cyne FOUND HIM SCUMMY and then decided to vote for me anyway is scummy.

I also believe that Gaspar is capable of bussing Comm all the way down the line. Remember Gaspar wasn't on Comm at the end of the day. He didn't vote thrawn. He was trying to get me to convince him so that he could lay the blame on me when thrawn turned up villager. He needed me to sell him on it. Yes he has done very little besides stay on Comm. And his vote today betrays his agenda.

Gaspar