[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

I've gotten some of these ideas be having just spent today staring at what Commodore's core looks like in PB25.

I'm curious what you mean by this. Particularly as part of a discussion of what we can do to close some of the MFG gap.

That was more referring actually to how tall he has grown some of those first cities, with cottages all around them. Can't say too much more here, since there's people reading this thread who play in PB27.

PS. Lurkers who are playing in PB27...don't click on the post Mindy linked to as that will bring you to my PB27 thread.

[MindyMcCready]

I'm curious what you mean by this. Particularly as part of a discussion of what we can do to close some of the MFG gap.

That was more referring actually to how tall he has grown some of those first cities, with cottages all around them. Can't say too much more here, since there's people reading this thread who play in PB27.

PS. Lurkers who are playing in PB27...don't click on the post Mindy linked to as that will bring you to my PB27 thread.

Sorry about that. Fixed it.

As to MC's city placement/city size,...we had different incentives the turn that you ninja built TGLH. And even before that.

TGLH + organized Rathus + organized LH meant that every low hammer waterside city was near-automatic profit. Because of that incentive and the resulting settling decisions, we're unlikely to match MC in total production,...ever. But we can compensate for the inherent lack of production by growing these cities to Size 7/8 and drafting 80H/110H muskets/rifles until the end of time. Which is why I've always pushed you to keep drafting.

So we get to fake the production while gaining all the benefits of rep+merc which are very significant. MC's had his Forbidden palace forever,...when our arrives in 6T we'll see some of the benefit of our strategy/wonders/UB. Hoping that we can open up a gap in tech rate over him when that happens.

Assuming that this game is not decided by Ruff and Donovan fighting their quagmire war,...we'll have some trouble launching a spaceship due to the lack of production. We'd need a significant tech lead to have any chance. But that's a 2016 problem if it ever happens.

I've been struggling with what we'll do when we hit Rifling. If we stop drafting we can measure our future largely by that production graph which is ugly. If we keep drafting we'll double our rate of stagation due to 2-pop drafts. I think that I've finally come to grips with the idea that we'll continue drafting and that it's spread over 34+ cities now + the Globe city. Now my only question is whether Infantry are still 2-pop drafts. :LOL:

[HitAnyKey]

I've been struggling with what we'll do when we hit Rifling. If we stop drafting we can measure our future largely by that production graph which is ugly. If we keep drafting we'll double our rate of stagation due to 2-pop drafts. I think that I've finally come to grips with the idea that we'll continue drafting and that it's spread over 34+ cities now + the Globe city. Now my only question is whether Infantry are still 2-pop drafts. :LOL:

I've actually been thinking about this slightly. Trying to consider if we really should follow Commodore to Rifles right away. Yes it'll get us a unit on par with what he'll be building, but it'll also obsolete our Chitzen Itza benefit. Almost wondering if we shouldn't go with the research of Astronomy next. Or if my stealing of Theology works, then we research Divine Right to build the Spiral Minaret as previously discussed.
Putting it off for a bit will also allow us to keep doing the 1-pop Musket drafts for a bit longer.
I'm currently leaning towards researching Astronomy, since at this point we know it won't be easy to get enough EPs to steal it from anyone. And getting the ability to build Galleons ourselves (and then we maybe research Chemistry for Frigates) will be a good benefit I think.

[MindyMcCready]

I've actually been thinking about this slightly. Trying to consider if we really should follow Commodore to Rifles right away. Yes it'll get us a unit on par with what he'll be building, but it'll also obsolete our Chitzen Itza benefit. Almost wondering if we shouldn't go with the research of Astronomy next. Or if my stealing of Theology works, then we research Divine Right to build the Spiral Minaret as previously discussed.
Putting it off for a bit will also allow us to keep doing the 1-pop Musket drafts for a bit longer.
I'm currently leaning towards researching Astronomy, since at this point we know it won't be easy to get enough EPs to steal it from anyone. And getting the ability to build Galleons ourselves (and then we maybe research Chemistry for Frigates) will be a good benefit I think.

What do we need Chitzen Itza for? It was/is very good against Gavagai, but provides zero benefit against MC (unless I'm mistaken). In fewer turns than it will take to research Rifles, Gav should be irrelevant.

I think that we need rifles and I don't think that we have any choice in the matter. Right now we can't remove G2 muskets let alone rifles from a hill. Nothing we has any real chance of stopping a CR cannon. If MC attacks we will get pulverized by his cannons. Rifles are the only thing that can inflict defensive kills upon his cannons. Just as important, more really, is that we get Cavalry the turn that we get Rifling. While cuirassiers can be stopped by muskets,...cavlary not so much.

C1+Pinch Cav vs full fortify draft musket sitting behind 60% culture: 70.4%/8.9%/20.8%. So those things are pretty devestating on the attack and with Ruff and Donovan doing whatever it is that they're doing we have to consider the possibility of more military expansion. Business as usual with our food going into defense while our hammers go into expansive offense.

The alternative at the time was Chemistry --> Steel. Other than cannons we also get drydocks + ironclds (I think). That probably would have been the better choice but we'd remain ridiculously behind in hammer output.

Astronomy, that tech alone doesn't do anything for us. We can build galleons, MC (if he matches) will build Frigates. The longer MC stays out of Astronomy the better it is for us.

Divine Right? Well we'd have to figure out the break-even on that and decide if we can survive those extra turns without Rifles. Of course, without Theology and/or landing UoS this isn't even a consideration.

We'll be saving gold of course, but you're right to bring this up now due to the Rep scientists providing a lot of research power.

[HitAnyKey]

Well the turn rolled tonight, which was nice. And both Comm & Gav played.
First the demos and graphs:

Very annoyingly our spy got caught at Hippo....so no stealing Theology for us. And I don't have enough EPs into him to steal it up at Kerk which is where I sent the other Spy. I should have just sent the other Spy to Carthage which apparently is cheaper for some reason.

Now for his movements. He abandoned Had in order to move one of the units into Kerk such that I can't take it this turn (only one 2-mover in range). And he moved defenders into both Hippo and Utica. And he's definitely prepping Galleys for his exodus to the island.

I'm figuring the plans here are pretty straight-forward. We take Had since he left it empty. I send a few units up towards Kerk so that I can take it next turn. And the other two stacks advance on Utica (western one moving next to it and the other one moving to the next hill).


But the bad news of the turn is this....

Commodore has a batch of 4 Galleys headed south towards me (3 of them being 3-movers) and a gazillion Caravels in the area for protection. So that means he'll be able to load those up with Rifles (or whatever else he feels like) and pick whichever of my coastal cities he wants to take. I don't know if there is any way I can get them all reinforced in time. I forgot to take screenshots, but I do have a single Musket (and 2 Axes) in Sleepy. And Happy has a Musket (with another about to join it next turn) & a couple trash units as well. Anxious has just an Axe. I just Drafted Anxious this turn and that's the Musket headed to Happy.
I set a few of the cities that weren't in the middle of building a Cuir to build Muskets, but I don't think any of them will complete (and get up there) in time. I suppose I'll need to send troops from the Hungry & Sore borders to try to defend those coastal cities. So it's looking like this may be the end coming at me, since I don't know if I'll be able to stop it. This is what I've been fearing him doing for ages, but haven't really had any way to do anything about it. I'm actually just surprised he hasn't sent some galleys with units down here sooner.
Heading to bed now and will finish tomorrow after the morning chat.

[HitAnyKey]

Started the turn stuffs off with taking Had....getting a really nice haul of Infra:

Next decided to move the Catapult out of Tacape to see that tile in the shows to see this (the catapult is now back inside the city after having taken it's peek):

Yep, he was sending the Cannons and Muskets south to take a shot at the city. At least I have enough stuff in the city that he can't take it. But he does have the possibility of killing off a couple muskets of mine if he tries. But in doing so I should maybe be able to kill some of his stuff. So once he moves something forward and sees my defenses, he might retreat.
I could load a couple Cuirs from next to Sore onto a Galley that could unload inside Tacape next turn to hit him if he does attack, so may do that. Issue with doing that is it takes away from what I need to be able to defend my northern coast from his galleys. I'll think about this option a bit more while I do other stuff to finish the turn.

[HitAnyKey]

Since I rolled the turn I was able to take the Demos & Graphs pics before logging out. This is before I do any drafting this turn.

[HitAnyKey]

The beginnings of the new turn start with Utica....as I suspected, Gavagai fled the city to put all those units into Carthage. So I took it with a Musket...

Over at Tacape, Commodore did attack with his cannons and muskets. He killed two of mine and lost one of his, but his cannons all survived. He'll be able to kill two more of my units next turn, but he does not have enough to take the city. And I'll be able to unload to Cuirs inside the city next turn.

I don't think he has anything on the fog tile in range of the city, but I could move the Catapult NE (and then back into the city) again to check. Since I doubt I'll be attacking out with the catapult this turn, since just wounding his units slightly won't really do much to help me. Better to leave one more unit that he'd have to kill in order to take the city. He drafted a Rifle out of Dragon Judge which is coming south with another Cannon, but they can't reach the city next turn.
This discussion to be continued with the next post dealing with GavLand....

Those galleys were indeed going to the island and he dropped off some troops. I Drafted a Musket in both Thebes & Alexandria.

My Cuirassier can move into the city and attack something. It's getting 95.6% odds vs a Musket in that northern group and 73% odds against a Knight in the southern group. As much as I'd like to kill one of the Knights since they can cause me the most trouble, I think I should just kill off one of the Muskets, as then hopefully the Cuir will still have enough health to defend against the rest. So that's what I'll likely do tomorrow.
Then just need to decide if I pull that single Musket out of Bedazzled and send him into Thebes or over towards Alex (to get into the city next turn) and just let Commodore take that city. Poor Bedazzled...getting trashed multiple times. LOL

[HitAnyKey]

Now for GavLand....
I already told the story of taking Utica. I can also take Kerk this turn as he evacuated that. The main decision there is whether I keep the city or raze it so as not to be right on the border with Donovan. But with Donovan being slammed by Ruff...and soon to be slammed by Gavagai on the island as he evacuates to it....I should be ok to keep it. Just need to think on that. Also, I need to try to steal Theology before capturing it. And want to wait to do that until I'm done looking at everything, because when I do I'll lose visibility EPs on Gavagai.
So here's how things stand:

1. I'll be using the Spy to try to steal Theology.

2. I'll then use the Musket up there to take Kerk. Just need to decide if I'm going to keep it or not. I already know it has only a Granary and Walls right now.

3. Most of the units in Had will march 1SW towards Carthage (with the other Cuirs, etc, within range joining them.

4. The units on the hill NE of Utica (the original SOD) will move NW. I can actually consider having the Cuirs try to kill some of his units...though the C3 Cuir only has 66.9% odds against his best unit right now which is a C2 Formation Knight.

5. The units west of Utica are now the ones that need to make a decision. A good number of these now need to head back towards Thapsus and so that they can help fight back those advancing Commodore units. I'm thinking of moving about half the Cuirs to the tile 1N of Thapsus. They can then hit Commodore's units from there on the following turn.
Then just need to decide how many units to put inside Utica and how many to move onto the hill N of it towards Carthage. I'm pretty sure Gavagai won't be trying to attack anything, since he's just trying to flee and keep stuff protected inside Carthage for as long as possible.

Anyway, that's enough of my thoughts for right now. Need to get some sleep and figure out how to finish in the morning.

[HitAnyKey]

A few quick screengrabs and then time to do some work:
First, taking Kerk (no infra):

And the updated Demos before rolling the turn:

Then rolling the turn gives us the new lay of the land....

And new Demos & Graphs: