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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!
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Meiz I think you're too far gone, but just take a moment and pretend I'm villager. Run through the ramifications of me being a villager and look at the game through my eyes for a minute.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
(October 8th, 2020, 09:32)Lewwyn Wrote:Lewwyn I do believe WK speaks what he sees as truth.(October 8th, 2020, 09:28)Rowain Wrote: @Lewwyn My question and WK answer: Fact remains you answered fast with still 90 mins to go while you also made a close to DL long post. So I have either to believe you are a very careless villager who offered himself to such a powerplay by the wolves or you are a wolf who planned to use exactly this defense. I doubt you needed framing. With Commodore rolling scum you were already the lynch of the day for today.
Tally as of post 1294:
Lynch votes 6 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice, Jabbz, Alhambram, Gaspar) 3 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Bobchillingworth, sunrise089, Rowain) 2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (pindicator, Lewwyn) 1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser) Voting history: 58 Minutes Remain.
@Rowain: I am sorry to have changed your quote in a way you did not mean it, after re-reading it I am not sure why I read it differently and I feel I might be getting confirmation bias searching for reasons of you being scum.
Other players also seem to disagree with my concerns, at least they ignore them for the moment so I am currently looking into the Commodore - Lewwyn - Pindicator triangle. I try to explore something different, it already has been done by multiple players but I always seem to fall back mistrusting their statements so I went and did a analysis of this myself. The core move everything seems to revolving around is Commodore switching to thrawn from pindicator on Day1 and Lewwyn speeding the thrawn train up (which started here) When Lewwyn joined, Thrawn had 2 votes on him from Rowain and Cyneheard. After Lewwyn joined, he was quickly followed by Gaspar, Meiz and Pindicator bringing thrawn up to the vote lead. However Lewwyn and Pindicator were quickly left alone by Gaspar and Rowain -> Commodore and Meiz, Cyneheard -> Pindicator. Meanwhile Commodore came back and parked his vote on Pindicator, giving him a slight edge. Please note that Gaspar has also 2 votes at this point in time, like thrawn, the remaining votes look to be inconsequential. Here Lewwyn comes back and really pushes on the thrawn train, thrawn responds with connecting Lewwyn and pindicator as a team and clearly threatening that Lewwyn is putting a noose around his own neck, voting for pindicator, bringing him into the lead with 6 votes. Kaiser and Adrien then bring the tally to 6 Pindicator, 4 Commodore, 4 Thrawn and Commodore pulls hus puzzeling move to vote thrawn coming from Pindicator. So the big question remains why Commodore would take the risk to bring the tally to this 5 Pindicator, 5 Thrawn, 4 Commodore with 4 still inconsequential (well let us say 3 as Alhambram was unlikely to switch away from his no-lynch) just 13 minutes before deadline. Theory A: (Lewwyn, Pindicator, Commodore scum) Lewwyn jumped protecting Commodore and Pindicator and Commodore switched to thrawn so the remaining wolf could help buffer the tally. In that case the remaing 1-2 wolves were likely among Kaiser, Sunrise, Rowain as the danger for pindicator was real with 6 votes in the finally tally. It would have needed either 1 last second switch and 1 join from the inconsequentials needed or 3 inconsequentials joining to lynch pindicator. Theory B: (Commodore scum) (Lewwyn potentially scum here as well) He switched to thrawn because there were only villagers on thrawn at that moment and the wolves were more confident to execute a thrawn lynch than a pindicator lynch. The remaining wolves would likely have been majorly on pindicator, explaining their hesitance for successfully pulling the pindicator lynch. Meiz and Cyneheard are the only remaining two players here who would fit for a hestiance in pulling off a pindicator lynch. Theory C: (Commodore scum, many wolves on Comm itself) (Lewwyn potentially scum here as well) He switched to thrawn because he knew that the wolves on him were ready to jump off if it should get close. In this case Gaspar and Novice seem suspect with their late joining on pindicator from Commodore, Jabbz could have come in as well but it would have been suspicious for him to do so after his early Day1 park. Theory D: (Commodore and Pindicator scum) Alternatively he wanted to avoid both a Commodore and a pindicator lynch and were very happy when Lewwyn started to hammer down on Thrawn. This would have been cutting it quite close as there were likely only 2-3 wolves left to steer the the final tally onto thrawn, but at least an out in a already difficult situation. In that case the remaing 2-3 wolves were likely among Kaiser, Sunrise, Rowain as the danger for pindicator was real with 6 votes in the finally tally. It is more likely in this case that one of the inconsequential voters could have been scum as well. However: - Theory A assumes that Lewwyn is a kind of Superwolf with balls of steel and the charisma of James Bond pulling a fancy and dangerous rescue mission endangering 3/4 or 3/5 of the wolf team in that mission - Theory B assumes that Meiz is a kind of Superwolf running around all game with his GrandMa costume without anyone noticing. Also it would likely have been easier to push Pindicator here (with or without Lewwyn) - Theory C assumes that the wolves were having many votes centered on Commodore to steer the final tally and or set up for the following days. This is the only setup where the wolves played a well executed strategy - Theory D assumes that the town did extraordinary work and picked up on two wolves on Day1. Scum identified a strategy to get out but likely had to involve most if not all wolves in the rescue and potentially had to leave a strong power role on the block. I do not know if Lewwyn or Meiz have these kind of WW experience to really pull of these moves. My personal likelihood of events would be C -> D -> B -> A. If the final vote will be around Lewwyn and Pindicator, my current tendency would be voting for Pindicator over Lewwyn. After reviewing it, Lewwyn could have tried to leave the thrawn train when it dropped back down to 2 votes instead of forcing it bringing himself into a very exposed situation. He either played this balls to the wall or as a fearless towny in my opinion. Pindicator in contrast was pushing less heavy here, so was exposing himself less with his thrawn vote and could have left later as well. For the moment though, I want to see if there is any traction on Gaspar or Novice as the main suspects from Theory C. Gaspar was being surprised about the low interest in a Commodore lynch at the time and I remember having seen some questioning of him by Meiz recently. (October 7th, 2020, 22:09)Lewwyn Wrote: Conclusion 60-40 scum. The voting makes me think scum but a lot of the reads are reasonable. I don't like the commodore reasoning so much at the end of Day 1 and it seems like he lynches Commodore at the end just for information. But if he were scum he would know what the information would provide and he would be able to "analyze" that information that way he wants. Based on what I have read his guilt is more of a coin flip. I would not lynch him before Cyne, Alhambram or Pin for that matter. Rowain is accusing me of the same hesitance to vote for Commodore beyond the information lynch, I just want to confirm that this was the main reason for voting Commodore in the end when I realized that Adrien was not going to be lynched. I had a more neutral read on commodore, as I was hesitant to judge his play style based on other peoples experiences. In my opinion the scummiest things Commodore was doing was that he was not leaving a trail to follow. Him mis-understanding GES was again was something I have to accept from other players to be scummy. But he had an interesting post on Day2 mentioning that he knew what GES meant all along, I felt that contradicted himself. In the end I was off with my read as Commodore turned up wolf.
[quote='pindicator' pid='754634' dateline='1602168647']
I read his rage post as being despondent. And voting for me is like giving up on what he had been doing, trying to hunt scum. [quote] In the rage post he is screaming for town how obviously his play doesn't fit for scum, it's the opposite of resignment. I think this is slip, as with you two being scum together, Lewwyn would be giving up by voting for you now. (October 8th, 2020, 10:10)Kaiser Wrote: - Theory B assumes that Meiz is a kind of Superwolf running around all game with his GrandMa costume without anyone noticing.  I didn't know Isaac could be funny (October 8th, 2020, 10:10)Kaiser Wrote: I do not know if Lewwyn or Meiz have these kind of WW experience to really pull of these moves. They have. There is a reason this game has number 48
See, this is part of why I'm so willing to self vote. Because Meiz seems to be incapable of moving past his first opinion of someone. He thought Lewwyn was covering for me day 1 all because he wouldn't vote Commodore. Lewwyn and Comm could have just decided to try and make lemonade from their lemons and set up someone for a future mislynch. Regardless, I really don't see how Meiz can wake up to the game and try to actually find scum without Lewwyn & I going first. He's just stuck. I'm hopeful that me going will wake him out of it and he'll re-evaluate everything with fresh eyes.
Or he's playing the scum game of all scum games, and in which case I tip my hat to him. Just covering my bases there, I don't think it's true. If Gaspar does not have traction within 15 more minutes I'm self voting.
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
I am a bodyguard, btw. Since I've failed my nightly bodyguarding, I think it's fitting that I try for some day bodyguarding.
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
@novice - I’m surprised you’re pushing back on my role PM question to Jabbz, which he has incidentally totally ignored despite having zero vote pressure on him. I’m not asking him to quote anything, I’m asking him for account for what I see as an incredible sequence of events where he opens the PM to grab the role name, looks past the description of the role, and loads another site to learn how the role works. Not additional nuance about it, but the basic mechanics/class of role it is. Why are you protecting Jabbz here?!
@Lewwyn - if you die and flip town who do you want us to lynch? Today you’ve been on Cyneheard, Homer, Gaspar, and sent a lot of stuff pindicator’s way too. Setting aside trying to save yourself who do you think the most likely remaining scum are? Asking sincerely since if you’re town I trust your reads the most. |
