[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

That's, uh, kind of a lot of caravels... Would you mind pinning the support bonuses of the ones in the back? If there are more ships behind this, I am worried we may not be able to crack it now that they have fleets.

On the other hand, with no WoR I should still have a really nice strength advantage over the fleet caravels, 5 (GA) + 4 (WoR) + 3 (spy) + 7 (Embolon which my caravels all have) = 19 points. Perhaps I am being silly to worry about this and should be thankful that they merged unpromoted caravels, which I think is typically a bad move as a fleet caravel has only 150% the health of a regular one. It means I can't hold him off at a choke point that easily, but I think the period of time in which I was relying on that is largely over.

Could you please have your IC finish the turn 1 tile east of its current position? That will block off the narrows and make me significantly harder to scout.

edit: Or I can move my ships very close to theirs and force an engagement at the cost of giving up the first strike. If I can make it to within 2 tiles of them, there will be no escape. Gradually pushing them back like this is slow and assumes we have more time than I fear we do before they turn up with IC or Russian reinforcements show up. But it does have its advantages in that if we keep advancing 3 tiles per turn like this, eventually we will get to attack their city without being in range of the fleet...

[Woden]

Caravels in back (starting from bottom) have support bonus of +8, +12, +12, +8, so another line of ships behind them. My best guess would be a line of frigates.

I am going to put my ironclad on the tile NW of the coral fish. He will still block the pass but be out of vision range of his ships.

[ljubljana]

Hmm, you are definitely going to be scouted either way, though. Not sure it makes much of a difference.

Thoughts on me moving my fleet up this turn? I do not want to give them time to reach Industrialization as well before we can inflict significant damage here, and I don't think they will do much damage with a first strike, especially with their ships still largely unmerged. But I guess we do still have some stragglers who need to catch up. Not sure about the right play...

edit: I guess it is nice that, this turn, most of my ships are actually moving more than 4 tiles toward Australia even if I stay back as I need to turn this fleet to start moving into the passage.

edit2: But on the other hand, if we do move up, the narrow passage will limit first strike damage to a degree that will not be possible on subsequent turns... If we do want to force a fight, right now is the time to do it IMO, before his northern ships come back south and before he merges more fleets/discovers Industrial/is aided by Russia.

edit3: If (and only if) we are going to force a fight, I think the 1E spot is best for your IC and not the spot NW of the reef. That way I can incorporate the IC into my line and also be within 3 tiles of their ships, which is the critical distance at which they cannot escape even if they try. If I am one tile further away, they will not be forced to fight us, and I really want to incorporate the IC into my line if I can as I am badly lacking for caravels.

[Woden]

He is a long ways form Industrialism. I think he has 32 techs versus your 36 and he has Ballistics. That means he is at least 4, probably 5 techs behind you and you haven't even started it yet.

No time to finish my report tonight. I positioned my ships as I see best. I am shooting to finish Refining on T186. I should have 3 fleet frigates and 7 single frigates that can become battleships. I will need at least 10 coal for upgrades on that turn. Then, I will probably need a few turns to get into position before striking. No new tech for Russia, so I am ahead in the race and now have a 28 beaker advantage.

[ljubljana]

Sorry, I meant Steam Power, not Industrial. If he gets to fleet IC we will not really be able to take cities quickly anymore and will struggle to beat his fleet...

edit: Sorry about the overbearingness of my postings above, I will try to be less micromanagey in the future

[Woden]

Good point about Steam Power. We have to be a little cautious with Australia. I think he is trying to draw us into a more open area so he can use his numbers advantage against us. Although, if he is merging ships I don't know how big his numbers advantage really is. His MP won't update until his next turn.

My ironclad won't give you a support bonus, so no real reason to incorporate it into your line. I placed him where I suggested. Bring your ships closer and see what he does. I started moving one of my pillaging fleet ironclads up to this front but he needed to stop and pillage a fishing boat to get back to full health. He will be up here is a couple of turn. Then, I will have at least 2 fleets. Plus, I will have another ironclad out of Japan's capital in 3 turns and Fort Miln in 4. I don't think we wait for those ships but they will be good reinforcements.

[ljubljana]

How much closer, do you think? Viable options include: 5 tiles away so I can't be attacked, 4 tiles away so only the lead caravels can attack, and 2 tiles away so that they have to fight us to avoid being hit with a first strike on my next turn. I am going back and forth about what to do, but if we are going to give up our first strike capability, this is probably the place to do it so that their superior numbers cannot be leveraged...

The answer does partially depend on what, if anything, I see in the north this turn, though...

[ljubljana]

Australia seems to be 4 techs behind after my discovery of Economics this turn (seems to be because I'm not sure if the new tech is reflected in the scores or not).



If they have Ballistics, they also have Rifling. Worst-case, they are missing Sanitation, Economics, Astronomy, and Mass Production, all off the Steam Power path. That means they probably need Siege Tactics and Steam Power itself. Steam Power is 930 beakers = 558 with the boost, so if they finish Siege Tactics, it will start an 8 turn clock to Steam Power. Not too soon, and worth keeping an eye on, but also not worth rushing into bad or questionable engagements to pre-empt.

edit: Or, that would be true if not for the era discount - look at my boost bar on Rifling tech. That is a 6 turn research for me, so SP will probably be a 5 turn research for them if they have been sitting on the boost for as long as I have...

[ljubljana]

Turn 183 - Phoenicia

A blessedly easy turn today on the Russian front:



They killed a single P/S but knocked another into promotion range, and did not kill my corps, AND they let me have two free city shots against their Cossacks! That's way better than the best-case outcomes I considered last turn, and means this turn is easy - make a corps on the campus, retreat and promote the single P/S, fortify the hilltop corps, and get ready for a third corps (this one with +5 against cavalry!) thanks to the P/S build in Cuneiform. They will get a lot of gold pillages next turn, but I think they will not break through to the campuses for, uh...one more turn

Note my caravel positioning, by the way - 9 tiles out of range of the Russian IC, but 7 tiles away from the tiles Russia would need to use to his Linear A with frigates. I would not be shocked if they try to ping us there this turn to block my wall upgrade, and if I'm lucky, maybe I will be able to get a frigate fleet kill out of it if they do

I think I figured out what Australia's ships are doing in the north:



They are farming for Line of Battle, which they will use to make strong frigate fleets that can inflict real punishment against our front line. I did not go for this shot against the frigate, though, which was not favored to kill and which would have knocked them into promotion range if it failed (they have taken 3 shots each against the city and are likely sitting on 12ish XP). Instead, I hit the caravel fleet, which shouldn't be close to promotion and which is now in the red. I bet the frigates will stay here one more turn and then retreat and promote, which would give me another shot at killing one anyways. Not sure if LoB on two frigate fleets is worth losing a caravel and having a caravel fleet critically wounded...

As for Australia's mainland, well, I chickened out:



At least all of my frigates are together and in range of the GA now. And I took a look at the first strike we would get by trying to force a fight (if they retreated), and it was not amazing, with me getting only 2 frigate fleet attacks in against a caravel on the first turn, after which, obviously, it would be their turn and I would be in the open. That did not seem amazing to me, and I didn't want to rush into anything without talking it over in more detail, so I stuck to the defensive deploy.

However. If we are going to fight this fleet (and I do think we need to eventually), the time to do it is right now. In 10 turns, I expect they will have Steam Power and Wars of Religion up, and our odds will look quite a bit longer. They are likely going to try to trade cities for time now, retreating their fleet to the north while letting us capture Illmatic and The Low-End Theory (and shell Rodeo with the Dreadnought), then come back with Steam Power and WoR and make a real fight out of it. I do not know if those are enough gains to justify letting this fleet lapse into obsolescence.

But then again, if we are going to take Australia's cities, the time for that is also right now before they get clads. Fighting the fleet in the open would take a fair few turns as well, turns that they will use to put beakers into Steam Power. I also do not know if conceding a +4 strength bonus to our enemies and a few ironclads (not many as they would need to borrow Russian coal) is worth giving up a first strike, as we would do if we moved into the open now...

Let's see where they move next turn. One reason to recommend the move I made is that it does give our opponents the opportunity to make a mistake - if they stay in the south and try to defend Illmatic and The Low-End Theory, it will be a big mistake as we can cut them off and they will not be able to escape past that little peninsula of land by Rodeo. Then we get the best of both worlds with a guaranteed first strike that they can't stop. If they go north, though, we are free to go after the cities while their DS is still low, and the Dreadnought is in range to hit The Low-End Theory this turn if all goes well.

Either way, the next few turns will be critical ones for sure...as if that's ever not been true in this game

[ljubljana]

Wait, this page suggests that enemy units earn a flat 3 XP under normal circumstances for attacking a city - do you know if that's true? I might have made the wrong call if so as the frigates would only be at 9 XP in that case. On the other hand, that means that next turn I can fire back at a frigate and knock it to an agonizing 14 XP while deep in the red, which is not half bad either

edit: If they do get clads in 7ish turns, they will likely only be given the coal to make one clad fleet, as Russia needs every bit of coal they can scrounge up to spam battleships at you. So IC are not a huge power spike for their fleet...Wars of Religion is, but for the moment it only takes their average CS deficit vs. me from 19 down to 15, a big deal but not game-ending, especially if I manage to maintain the possibility of a first strike. On the other hand, IC are an enormous power spike for their cities, which will go from trivial conquests even with Renaissance Walls to very difficult nuts to crack with my current fleet, which all took LoB first to maximize ship vs ship combat odds. I guess that means I should hit the cities first and dare Australia to try to defend them without WoR or clads?

Well, we will see what they do. The Dreadnought can start on The Low-End Theory as soon as next turn from the tile 3NE of the city center, assuming the caravel blob retreats. I think it is worth prioritizing trying to see if any ships are in range of that tile next turn, if you are able to do so.

Also of note: one of the frigates at Anoch Sun has 5 MP, but the other has 6! No idea why that is true, but I guess we shouldn't assume the Dreadnought will be safe next turn unless everything is 5+ spaces away and we have explicitly verified their MP...