(March 5th, 2015, 04:57)AdrienIer Wrote: Also does someone have an explanation for why I would let Lewwyn be killed by my teammate, when he put me in his super town column ? Wouldn't that be the dumbest kill possible ? I could have waited for the night before LyLo if I was scared of him.
Because Lewwyn was obv-town at that point, and he was leading the scumhunting charge. Counter is that he also suspected Novice. So, I don't think it's a strong tell either way, but I do think an explanation isn't too hard to see.
Lewwyn was obvtown but he was on my side. His death could have been delayed by a day.
(March 5th, 2015, 12:10)Jabbz Wrote:
(March 5th, 2015, 04:37)AdrienIer Wrote: And BTW I shouldn't be paranoid but Jabbz's absence from the early day discussion doesn't have a good ring to it. If he's scum he's going to use that to bus BRick if he has to or finish me off if he can.
Sorry I can't do much to aleviate this AdrienIer, other than to say making meta excuses for being absent from the game would be, to me, cheating. Why bother playing if you're going to cheat? I do feel bad for not participating as much, especially as town, because now I'm very suspect (who am I kidding, I always look scummy, so would be suspect anyway) and will throw off the town convo tomorrow, assuming we make the right lynch tonight.
Yeah I was being paranoid.
(March 5th, 2015, 12:15)Jabbz Wrote:
(March 5th, 2015, 10:51)AdrienIer Wrote: So in this case I've been killing all those who suspected you all game long while leaving dtay alive last night (the only one really against me) and killing Saul instead (who suspected you more than me) ?
(March 3rd, 2015, 16:02)Jabbz Wrote: So then. Either Brick or AdrienIer are scum. Or Commodore gave someone a bastard role. Should make for an entertaining discussion tomorrow. We know neither Brick nor Adrien will die tonight. One has to be scum, and killing the other would just make it clear which was which. Dtay is a pretty good candidate I think, based on his reads, unless he is scum, then obviously he is safe. Sunrise and I are safe, as we have spent too much time lurking, and make good (miss)lynch options. Saul seems to be a good lynch target, for much the same reason as dtay. That's everyone still in if I'm not mistaken. So Saul and dtay need to make clear their arguments/reads/etc in the next 24 hours.
There wasn't a lot of options on the table for night kill. Besides which, almost every argument you are making can be brought down to WIFOM.
Not all of them, BRick's opponents being night-killed systematically isn't WIFOM because I wouldn't have known on N1 that there would be a big duel against BRick in the end game. Either it was a coincidence or it was his doing. Again BRick's wolf play is known to be gambit-y, either there's a coincidence or there's a correlation.
I can only do so much. Every time I'm reading a BRick post (even if I try to look at it objectively) it's tainted by my certainty that he's a wolf. I need you three to look into both our games objectively, ask us questions, put up interesting points, so we can answer.
(February 23rd, 2015, 22:11)BRickAstley Wrote: Feeling a little lost still for the moment, so I went back and looked at the final vote tallies for each day, and identified who we know for sure was voting for who. Then I got a bit of a spark and also grabbed a tally of what the situation was an hour before.
Lewwyn switches in the last hour onto a known villager both times, once of which at least is against confirmed scum. Both of those votes have been explained, one as not liking matt as a lynch (and agreeing with sauldicator) and another as not liking fenn claiming riiight before lynch. However I just noticed, Day 1 Lewwyn at t-6min said 'explain last 2 pages in 3 minutes plz', and at t-3min quoted a long pindisaul post from 100 posts ago about wanting to vote zakalwe and went ahead and made that last minute switch. He's already explained the thought process which makes sense but that timing and seemingly super quick turnaround from uninformed to finding and processing saul's post seems odd to me. (or maybe he's just really really quick at reading)
Jabbz got vacated prety quick day 2 for...... what again? I can't find him claiming or doing much else becuase quick angry 'when i die....' posts and people saying 'surely scum won't let two people die easily two days in a row'
novice seems to have stayed on his suspects each day long, not being as talkative as I'd think village novice would be. though him and Lewwyn are on each other so that's either a scum ploy or someone just a village not acting 'well' enough as i'd expect. :P
AdrienIer put Fenn tied up there on the block, and has kinda been active without being active in his last few posts besides that if that makes sense. Seems to have mostly been meta stuff and some more slapfighting with novice. And his main reason for voting Fenn and tying him up with 90ish min to go is because he's not posting a ton and said he didn't feel decisive enough? The first part is funny cause Ad's game has felt similarly sparse (He's actually the sparsest poster except for Mattimeo and Sunrise!) And there's a big difference between how decisive you feel after 5/6 days of a info reveal heavy game vs. 2 days of this one.
I'd say AdrienIer for now, mainly because if Lewwyn/novice continue to fight with each other that should be enough to get better reads on each of them.
Ninja edit; heyoo doctorcator, that's also a good point on Adrien I think. And yeah also since the votes were 8 to 1 to 1 to 1 etc with an hour to go, probably isnt too likely that the last blitz was a coordinated plan or something,
He attacks three towns and Jabbz in that post. Small town point for Jabbz
I have a new theory. It may be a bit of a crackpot one but it's possible.
BRick comes up with his claim. Gaspar immediately attacks him on it.
(February 26th, 2015, 23:18)Gaspar Wrote: Screwed up the formatting there, but I used italics to indicate my comments, hopefully that's readable.
I'm out of time for tonight. Brick that role sounds ridiculous. I put nothing past Commodore, but seriously?
Brickastley
Maybe plan was to give Gaspar towcred by taking BRick down ? Gaspar actually makes a good post here
(February 27th, 2015, 10:42)Gaspar Wrote:
(February 27th, 2015, 10:06)Lewwyn Wrote: If Brick is town then Gaspar as town should be thanking him for providing suspects instead of him.
I get that you're on some dopamine high because you think you've caught one, but this is ridiculous. My job as town is to catch scum, I don't thank someone for getting me off the block to survive. That's what scum do. And let's be honest here, if we lynch novice today based on Brick's claim and he rolls town, I'm going to be on the block again tomorrow. When a confirmed town writes an opus on you and then a strong character parrots it, that stink doesn't wash off. People will be on me all game. For scum, I'm a Money in the Bank contract. Whenever they need a lynch, just cash me in. So I'm just going to play, I'm not going to obsess over the fact that I'm on the block - I'll respond/defend but otherwise I'm going to try and catch scum, that's my ultimate role.
This is usually the point in a losing game where I get lynched, historically.
Re: Brick's claim my doubts are thusly: Brick was pretty much dead neutral for me on read, he has a history of trying stupid shit, the role seems unnecessarily convoluted and it feels like we have too many of them. My main real doubt is that I feel like a scum Brick would have lined up two more universally suspicious players and then taken gentle chiding from us for not narrowing it better, but leaving him with two easy mislynches instead of just one. But I guess with how obviously I'm being targeted, maybe he didn't feel like he needed that.
I disregarded that post earlier because Gaspar was too far on my scum list but I think this was meant to make Gaspar start to look good as town by taking down BRick. But he makes a mistake by going after Lewwyn and BRick says this
(February 27th, 2015, 17:44)BRickAstley Wrote: I think I'd be okay with going Gaspar -> novie instead of novice -> Gaspar. My only reservation is personally I feel like novice is higher % likely scum, and I am scared of a situation where somehow Gaspar ends up actually being village and then we're at LYLO sooner than would be good.
Though my day has been unexpectedly busy and I haven't gotten to spend as much time on the game as I like, and I'm starting to feel like beause of that maybe I should trust Lewwyn with this read, especially since he knows Gaspar the best of anyone.
Which is followed by 3 Gaspar votes, then Gaspar gives up and BRick has to give in too.
I feel kinda lost, since I've done my reread on AdrienIer, posted my thoughts on H, and don't have anyone else to directly respond to. I'm not used to this 100% know for sure who a scum is. I know for sure if I'm lynched today we will lose, and even though it won't help anything right now I just want post repeatedly "I'M TOWN LYNCH ADRIENIER"
Otherwise, I feel like unless people have anything they want me to answer to my best thing to do is an analysis on the other 3 to figure out the last scum to lynch tomorrow, so I'll aim to get this done before deadline.
I've reread everything that's pertinent I think. The problem I am running into, is that prior to today, I had nice warm and fuzzies about both Adrien and Brick. Now I'm not sure. Brick's not finding the right person on the first shot makes me seriously question him. I expressed a belief earlier that I had a concern it was a gambit. The arguments people made against it were persuasive at the time. Now I'm second guessing myself, and getting cold feet.
OTOH Adrien being scum supports my feelings that a gambit was unnecessary. Except for the fact that we now appear to be in LYLO, and the gambit appears to be working. Further, I can't decide if AdrienIer's multiple attempts to theorycraft are scummy or towny. I really need to come down on that one way or another.
I think I need to go back and re-read the individuals who convinced me the gambit was unnecessary, and take it from that point. I also think that some action regarding every other player is now warranted. If we get this right, we have 72 hours to get the last one right as well. I don't know that much more can be said about the adrien/brick dichotomy, other than the fact that one of them has to be lynched today. Absent specific questions, I think we need to start delving into possible other scum.
BRickAstley
-Is known for doing strange gambits as scum
-His enemies are falling like leaves
-A lot of "misplays", participating in lynching townies, while trying to avoid or delay lynching scum
