[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Nobody Else in Pitboss 66

[Magic Science]

Two more things:

Plem-adilly again did not charge boldly and cleverly forward with their Chariots. They did not fork the cities of The Blob like I was worried about, and naufragar I has now pillaged part of the Still-Uncultured Road.

It was tricky to construct those Walls in Poseidon at the last possible moment. On the previous turn, I had to stop working terrestrial food resources all around the Pantheon so I could work even more basic Coast tiles instead. Gross, but it worked. I researched Masonry EOT 93 with no beakers to spare. Then I did a 2-pop Forge-boosted dry whip in Poseidon.

[Magic Science]

To make myself feel better about my fate, I want to remind everyone about this:
On Turn 77, Plem-adilly lost their city of Mediolanum to the Barbarians. On Turn 94, they have still not recaptured it. . Next turn I will take a screenshot to immortalize this incident.
Though it has now been so long that I suspect it might be a deliberate tax-evasion scheme on their part, and therefore something worthy of praise instead of mockery. Let the Barbarian Vassal State grow your population and build your Granary, and only claim the city when it starts to be profitable. Oh man, if that works, that would be the greatest trick ever. .

…

Also, Mjmd warned me about the imminent attack on Poseidon last turn by demanding Copper and Poseidon from me twice. Thanks buddy, True AI Diplomacy seems like a lot of fun.

…

   
Goodbye Poseidon. .

[Magic Science]

PBSpy says:
Plemo +19
Magic Science -27

They got me. The Colossus was mine for only 5 turns.

[Magic Science]

Turn 95 and Turn 96 – 500 BC and 475 BC
   
They captured Poseidon. They control The Colossus. (Also, Gin-guelito constructed The Pyramids EOT 94).

And once again, my estimates were proven badly wrong. This is very discouraging to experience over and over again so quickly.
My civilization is collapsing, sure, but what really bothers me is how my plans to cope with the collapse keep failing. HOW. Something goes horribly wrong, then I think about how to deal with it as best I can in light of likely future events, then those future events are worse than I thought, so something goes horribly wrong and the plan fails before it can begin. Then repeat.

Just last report I thought I could still survive until Plem-adilly brings Catapults, which would have given me time to create some interesting final strongholds in Pig Island, Daggerland, and The Archipelago. But now I know that is incorrect. My Civ IV large-scale combat instincts are terrible (as are my Civ IV city maintenance instincts). The Battle of Poseidon was a massacre; Plem-adilly only lost 2 units. I guess the remaining battles of the Fourth Greco-Roman War will be like this too, so they do not need to wait for Catapults. They can just heal the experienced survivors and bring in reinforcements right now. They have a Medic I Warrior NE of Poseidon, and their power continues to spike.

This is it. The last stand is happening right now. How did it all go so wrong?
Well, the last stands, plural. The Core and The Blob are quite separate now.


   
The Blob.
Neither Apollo nor Hermes are on a hill, but Hestia is, so Hestia will be the site of my last stand in this region, which seems mythologically appropriate. I will defend Apollo and Hermes for now to keep Plem-adilly and Civ-eel (they must have Sailing by now, right?) honest, then evacuate everything to Hestia just in time. They will stop building Walls next turn, but I thought it was worth it to invest one turn of production just in case. The real source of production is whipping anyway, not tiles.

Also, I pillaged some of the Still-Uncultured Road. I would pillage more, but some of it is necessary for the evacuation, and some of it is too close to the enemy army.

Also, I am chopping the third and last forest of The Blob. Then the Workers will build a mine for Hestia, and then they will build a quarry on the Stone starting Turn 101 (it could save some production spent on Walls), and then they will be deleted to reduce unit maintenance.

Also, wave goodbye to Hera’s Dream. She is sailing west and won’t be back.


   
The Core.
I plan to found the city of Aphrodite on Pig Island to be the site of my true last stand and thereby delay my elimination, and I think this plan will work, but I have little trust in my judgement at the moment, so I am not excited about it, and you should not be either. Still, I will explain. .

Hephaestus will train the Settler. Hera will train the 2 Triremes. All 3 cities together will train the “extra” 1 Phalanx and 3 Axemen that I will send from the mainland to garrison Aphrodite. The Galley will return from the east to transport everything. And the 3 Workers will chop every forest to provide the necessary production, and for spite’s sake (then they will be deleted too).

I think their army will be healthy EOT 96, so it will reach and attack and capture Zeus on the first half of Turn 99. That leave just enough time for my Great Engineer to escape to Hera on the second half of Turn 98, haha. What will he do? He could bulb Machinery, but I have no chance of acquiring Iron. He could start a Golden Age, but I only have 6 cities and 18 population. Still, it is better than nothing. But I think he will travel to Aphrodite and settle as a super specialist. Even the beakers will be useful to limp to Archery and Mysticism, imagine that!

I do not know how long Hera and then Hephaestus will survive after that. Hera should survive at least until Turn 104 or so, which is all I need to send the Aphrodite party on its way. The only difference any turns after that make is how many Axemen and Phalanxes Plem-adilly will need to destroy to capture the last of The Core.


   
Here is the screenshot of Mediolanum, the Roman city captured by Barbarians. Will they last longer than me? .


   
Here is the screenshot of my 3 scouting units, finally close enough together for this.

Upon reflection, I am not so smugly cheerful about it. My civilization may be backwards, but it is Turn 96 now, and plenty of people have scouting units out and about in the world. Gavagai has already met everyone, and Gin-guelito will soon. So my scouting is not special anymore.

…

This may be the last of my turn-by-turn reports for this game. Like I said, I am discouraged from thinking about and writing about so many plans only to see them foiled before they could even begin, and my civilization is now so weak I can barely do anything interesting. So, I might write a report if something nice happens, and I might write an analysis of how everything went so wrong so soon when the end happens, but otherwise, don’t expect to see much of me in this thread.

But never fear, I eagerly await the day I can freely lurk the other threads and see what everyone said about me, and I will be back again someday soon for another game.

See you later. .

[Magic Science]

Two Three more last things, because I cannot kick my reporting habit yet:

ONE: To clarify, my new prediction is that I will be eliminated from the mainland, so both The Core and The Blob, within 20 or so turns at absolute most. About a month in real-time. If my plan to found Aphrodite on Pig Island works, then I think that will delay my elimination by about another 30 turns at most. About another month in-real time. About Turn 150. The war will be over by Christmas!

TWO: Part of what caused everything to go wrong was a grievous lapse of memory about trade route mechanics. More than 30 turns ago now, I thought that the typical value of same-continent foreign trade routes was +1 commerce, so if you wanted +2 commerce trade routes for all your cities, you would need to settle an intercontinental city of your own. Of course, that is incorrect. . I do not know why I ever thought that. Anyway, that incorrect belief was why it seemed reasonable to train Hera’s Dream long ago during the Greek Dark Age; I thought I would settle Pig Island for +2 commerce trade routes soon. When I signed Open Borders with Alhazard and GKC, I learned that I was wrong, and that motive evaporated, so I never used Hera’s Dream to settle anywhere. Instead, I used her for those questionable amphibian adventures and nothing else, until now.

THREE: The northern Galley, Argo I, has been, and will continue to be, perfectly useless. I trained him to settle Daggerland, but of course that is now not possible, so there is nothing for him to do. Well, once Zeus is captured and the 2 improved Fish are out of my culture, I can pillage them. . I think I can still research Archery and Mysticism before the end.

[Magic Science]

This may be the last of my turn-by-turn reports for this game. Like I said, I am discouraged from thinking about and writing about so many plans only to see them foiled before they could even begin, and my civilization is now so weak I can barely do anything interesting. So, I might write a report if something nice happens, and I might write an analysis of how everything went so wrong so soon when the end happens, but otherwise, don’t expect to see much of me in this thread.

But never fear, I eagerly await the day I can freely lurk the other threads and see what everyone said about me, and I will be back again someday soon for another game.

See you later. .

I recant.

EDIT: Turn 100 report later.

[Magic Science]

Turn 97 to Turn 99 – 450 BC to 400 BC
[NOPE] [SKIP]

Turn 100 to Turn 103 – 375 BC to 300 BC BC
Part 1: Diplomacy and Machinery
   
This is the specific event that inspired me to report this game again.

On Turn 100, at the edge of superdeath’s territory, I met vanrober. And vanrober has Iron. And Iron is the only component required to train Crossbowmen that I cannot acquire myself. And Crossbowmen do alright against Axemen and Praetorians, or so I hear.
. Oh, joyous day! .

…

So, I did everything in my power to convince vanrober to give me Iron. But my power is sadly limited.

All I could do was try to convey to him the degree of my desperation. I offered vanrober a potpourri of resources 3 times. Gold, Fish, Crab, and Cow. Just give me the Iron and it could all be yours! Think how desperate I must be to offer all this!

Balance of power politics would have to do the rest. Support the weak against the strong; it’s just common sense. And since the loss of Poseidon, I am absolutely among “the weak”. And what else could you possibly be doing with Iron right now anyway?


   
Turn 101, vanrober rejected all my offers and made none of his own. NO! So, I tried once again to convey to him the degree of my desperation for the Iron. I know I just met you, and this is crazy, but please believe me that this Iron would be great for me and therefore terrible for your very long-term enemy Plem-adilly.

As you can see, this time I offered literally every resource I own to vanrober for his Iron. If he accepted, Hestia (no forests and no fresh water) would actually suffer unhealthiness. .

In the likely event that this second attempt at securing Iron by conveying my desperation failed, then I only had one other plan. I could try to hook the Marble and Stone at Hestia and offer to trade them for the Iron. That trade would directly benefit vanrober, so maybe it could work where balance of power political considerations failed. Worth a try. I moved my Workers towards the Stone.


   
But then vanrober came to his senses and gifted me the Iron for free on Turn 102. . I took 4 screenshots of this thrilling moment.
(He seems quite checked out. I think that reason, and not any in-game strategic reasons, caused the delay of this gift).


   
Unfortunately, my population is now so low that a Great Engineer bulb was not sufficient to discover Machinery, and my economy is now so low that generating the last 60 beakers is a struggle. .

So, I started painfully working water tiles all around the Pantheon, and I begged superdeath and Gavagai for 20 gold. superdeath gave me 17, so I discovered Machinery by the skin of my teeth EOT103.

"A GOD FROM THE MACHINE". I can train Crossbowmen now. Roman melee units beware. My last stand just became much more dangerous for you.

(The reason I have selected Mysticism in the above screenshot is that Plem-adilly can see my research. Better to select something false when merely saving gold, as I was on Turn 102).

[Magic Science]

Turn 100 to Turn 103 – 350 BC to 300 BC BC
Part 2: Towards the Two Last Stands
   
Overview.
I have never controlled a civilization with this wacky shape before. .

Why did the Palace go to Apollo and not Hera?


   
The Core.
On the first half of Turn 101, Plem-adilly captured Zeus, and they only lost 3 units in the battle.

But in turn there are 3 bright things about this:

1. A Great General was born to me. . (But he was born in Apollo).

2. They probably should have captured Zeus on Turn 100, but at the last moment I increased its defenders and forced them to wait 1 more turn for 4 more Praetorians. Small victories.

3. I think I finally understand how the bad outcomes of these large battles keep occurring despite my expectations. I have their course summed up in my head now. So:
They are Tokugawa of Rome, so my normal Axemen are only favored to win when defending my cities with preparation, and even then not my much. Only about 66% vs. 33%, and that is not 100%, obviously. Also, an Axeman that wins at 66% odds will not have enough health to win another fight that turn. So:
I defend my city with 5 Axemen (this has been approximately the case all 3 times so far). They attack with 5 terrifying Axemen and Praetorians, and I win 3 battles and they win 2. Then everything after that is a massacre for me because my victorious Axemen are too wounded to win and my Phalanxes are countered by their Axemen and Shock Praetorians. That makes sense.
The victory:defeat ratio would be much better for me if my units were concentrated together and stacked higher to protect the vulnerable wounded and Phalanxes. It may have been a mistake for my small stacks to stand and fight at Demeter, and maybe at Poseidon, and maybe even at Zeus. They could have retreated and been part of a big stack at the next city. Oh well.

Hmm. That seems obvious now that I type it out. However, I am inexperienced with big Civ IV battles, and I am a human afflicted with our probability-related weaknesses. Forgive me.

Back to the present day…


   
Plem-adilly’s main army is still healing in Zeus with the help of Robert E. Lee the Medic II Warrior, but this small stack is already advancing on Hera. Hera’s defenses are weak because of the expense of Project Aphrodite, and now this small stack compels me to decide once and for all just how weak I will allow those defenses to be. How much do I value defending Hera, and how much do I value defending Aphrodite? Difficult decision.

I decided that I will transfer more defenders to Aphrodite (not actually founded yet), which will allow this small stack to capture Hera on the first half of Turn 105. Holding Hera for longer would allow me to produce more units and generate for commerce, but the point of units is to delay my elimination, and Machinery will be the last technology I discover. All I need commerce for now is avoiding STRIKE.

Hera will not have quite enough time to train a Crossbowmen. Hephaestus will have time (unless Mjmd attacks it earlier than Plem-adilly), but I might make the same choice again to transfer defenders to Aphrodite. Units in Hephaestus could flee south into the wilderness, then go east to the coast to board Hera’s Dream. My Workers could build a few more Still-Uncultured Roads to speed them on their way.


   
The Blob.
(This is from almost the beginning of Turn 103).
Hestia will be the site of my last stand in The Blob, but at the moment it is the worst-defended city in the region. The units from Apollo and Hermes have not yet been transferred over the roads to Hestia, and I split my forces at Hestia to protect the Workers improving the Stone. To their credit, Plem-adilly noticed this and used their Galley to take advantage of it by delivering 2 Praetorians out of the fog. Of course, I knew that Galley was around; I should have foreseen this possibility and acted to counter it already.

There are no more units coming over the water from the north, so I think Hestia will be safe. Plem-adilly’s clever attack will not destroy the site of my last stand out of order, but merely force me to make some bad unit trades to protect it.

This is what I did:

   
(This is from almost the end of Turn 103).
The 3 Workers on the Stone must return west to complete the road from Apollo and Hermes to Hestia, but the hilltop Praetorian is blocking their way. The only best way for RefSteel I and naufragar I, the military units on the Stone, to help defend Hestia is to attack that Praetorian at bad odds. So they did.

RefSteel I the Poet, the second-best unit I ever had*, was destroyed attacking a Praetorian at impossible odds on Turn 103. Goodbye. . But at least he damaged the Praetorian enough for naufragar I to destroy that Praetorian flawlessly, so the Workers could escape.

Next turn and next next turn, the Workers will complete enough of the road for some Axemen from Apollo and Hermes to move towards Hestia. This turn, Hestia whipped an Axeman, and there will be enough overflow to complete an Archer next turn if necessary. 2 Phalanxes, 1 Axeman, and 1 Archer should be enough to survive against 1 Praetorian and 1 Axeman until the reinforcements arrive, especially because my Great General is there now too, just in case. So I think the last stand in The Blob will still happen in Hestia.

I just realized, could I attach Ivan the Terrible to an Archer and upgrade it to a Crossbowman for free? That is how that mechanic works, right?

…

Lastly, my morale is much improved from last week, so you can expect me to keep up my same usual inconsistent report schedule up to the end. .

…

*The very best unit I ever had was the Musketman named “The Spanish Inquisition” that captured superdeath’s Great Lighthouse city in Pitboss 40 in a surprise attack, hehehehehehe. That was a great moment.

[Magic Science]

Turn 100 to Turn 103 – 350 BC to 300 BC BC
Addendum
   
Look at this! Plemo and Piccadilly are the luckiest bastards in this whole game! .

Cassandra finally made it around to the far side of their civilization, and what does she find? More water!

I AM THEIR ONLY LAND NEIGHBOR. THEIR ONLY LAND NEIGHBOR AT ALL.

But everything is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds, so they must have some vicious amphibian neighbor relationships to account for this, right? Like what I have with Civ-eel, but even worse, right? WRONG, WRONG. Alhazard is separated from them by an incredible line of deep ocean tiles, GeneralKilCavalry has only now started to settle the miserable wasteland that is separated from the capital city of Rom by 6 tiles of water (try 1 tile ), and with Amicalola/Gavagai their border is a defensible sliver.

There never was a firm anti-Roman ally to find. . I generated and studied at least a dozen Torusworld maps with these exact settings in the pre-game, and I never saw this situation. What rotten luck!

…

I still want to play on a random natural map in my next pitboss. .

[Cornflakes]

Yes you can get a free upgrade from archer to crossbow by attaching a great general. And congrats on managing to get the Machinery and scrape together a better last stand