WW 19 Lurkers: The Corner of Statler and Waldorf [SPOILERS]

[Bigger]

geez. tasunke and waterbat need a FAQ how to play ww stat.
tip 1:
1. lying as a villager is almost always a bad idea. lying always makes you look like scum. lynch all liars is good strategy because the only players that should ever lie are scum.
2. admitting you were thinking of lying when you didn't actually do it is doubly dumb, lol.

(point one is for both of them, point 2 just for waterbat).

[Rowain]

Passing the pistol to a bad villager is exactly equivalent to passing it to scum anyway, so better to hope on a good villager and possibly mess up than give it to one of the crazies.

2 mistakes: a) giving it scum makes it absolutly certain that it will be used to harm the village whila a crazy might hit the right one (for example MJW used his gun right today and I think he does at least sometimes count as crazy)
b) Who is a good villager? Lewwyn used it the last time he was vig to kill 3 villagers in a row and he is usual a good villager
Serdoa used the vig role to shoot on night 1 two games in a row and kiled 2 villagers then. Leaves only novice who really used the gun great (WW5) and whoever has it today.

[Bigger]

Passing the pistol to a bad villager is exactly equivalent to passing it to scum anyway, so better to hope on a good villager and possibly mess up than give it to one of the crazies.

2 mistakes: a) giving it scum makes it absolutly certain that it will be used to harm the village whila a crazy might hit the right one (for example MJW used his gun right today and I think he does at least sometimes count as crazy)
b) Who is a good villager? Lewwyn used it the last time he was vig to kill 3 villagers in a row and he is usual a good villager
Serdoa used the vig role to shoot on night 1 two games in a row and kiled 2 villagers then. Leaves only novice who really used the gun great (WW5) and whoever has it today.

well then, pass it to novice.
uberfish or zak would be even better, since they are less likely to be night killed than novice.

[Gaspar]

@Tasunke - your problem is you are too impatient to play normally and you have to play normally sometimes to get the crazy stuff to ever work. As it is now, pretty much every game you play you just serve as a distraction until you finally get lynched - its not helpful.

@Rowain - well, you're not picking blind though. In general, the reliability of town reads is higher than the reliability of scum reads so you pass to your best town read who is not a likely scum target. In this case, I'd pass to uberfish. And certainly, a good villager can pick wrong, that's the inherent risk in a vig shot. For the usual 1-shot vig, I generally advise saving the shot. My one time as vig I saved it late and ended up getting blocked but here I think shooting early and often is the best choice because of the setup.

Some people are just bad vigs - Serdoa and Lewwyn are both excellent players but they're also both heavily prone to tunnel vision, I'd say neither makes an excellent vig. Novice is sort of ideal since he's wrong as much as any of the good players are but he's usually willing and able to reconsider. Uber as well, who is somehow an even better villager than he is a wolf. We should all aspire to be as awesome as uber.

@Bigger - you need to spoiler a bit more, you're giving the puzzle away.

FWIW, I believe Lewwyn to be the watcher based on how he's referenced it. Still on the fence on vig, could have been a bunch of people

[Bigger]

gaspar - maybe, but I'm not spoiling who the scum are. you are just reading too much into my posts, I think

DA MATHS:
Assumption of 4 scum to start.
Assumption that the Ouija board scanned somebody innocent
Assumption that none of these people are the same (UV=WUOS for example)
13 player remaining
3 snitches, 10 mobsters.
Now to my mind, we also have cleared villagers. A substantial portion of them.
Novice, Serdoa, Unclaimed Vig(UV), MJW, Unclaimed Ouija(UO), Whoever Unclaimed Ouija Scanned(WUOS)

6 out of 10 are already cleared. Assuming they all reveal themselves, then there are 7 unsafes. Now we can kill 2 of those unsafes with the hold out pistol, so the ratio is actually 6:5 clear:unclear.

That is *just* within the bounds for the wolves to win, if the game goes in the worst possible way in terms of target selection.
(Today as day 1)
Day 1, 13-10:3 (6:7) villager lynched, pistol pass, trusted villager night killed.
Day 2, 11-8:3 (5:6) villager lynched, villager night killed by pistol, trusted villager night killed.
Day 3, 8-5:3 (4:4) Villager lynched, Only wolves remain untrusted, Trusted Villager night killed. If the villagers had another day, they would have a guaranteed wolf lynch, and a pistol night kill to accompany it... but instead
Day 4, 6-3:3 Wolf win.

But the only way for the wolves to ensure that? Make sure that not one more villager gets trusted status(or the day 3 ratio becomes 5:3, wolves only as targets). Make sure that none of the remaining vig shots hit wolf. Make sure that none of the lynches hit wolf. Make sure not to hit the gas can. If even one of those things happens, then the wolves have got a guaranteed loss on their hands.

Or not. The biggest break for the village is the pistol. If the pistol is lost, either by death or by theft, then the math breaks down, and the wolves have a slight margin, as the ratio of trusted to untrusted villagers won't dip against the wolves. What it does mean though is that from this point forth, their kills are almost locked in. They need to kill guaranteed villagers. Anybody who doesn't fall into the guaranteed six, is now completely immune to night kills unless they become claimed.

It also means that if you are one of the "anonymous cleared" and you fall under lynch threat, do not let yourself die.

this is pretty much the same line of thought I had after my assasination. his math is a bit off (only because I know some info that he doesnt) so its not quite as dire for the wolves as makes it seem... but he's got the right idea.

i've been trying to catch up with the main thread all day, im still 6 pages behind. good grief, its probably just as well im dead, hehe.

[Bigger]

ok caught up. scum have a chance to win this game, but it will require superb play and some luck.

[Bigger]

Add in the fact that your scumbuddy Zak throws the "Three M's" out there and A) casts more aspersions on MJW (but doesn't vote there because he's already pretty town leaning) then B) throws out you his token scum just in case he or you are caught cover either way, and C) Mero his mislynch target.

A) Why is MJW town-leaning? Honestly, explain that Lewwyn. Because he shot a villager? Because he took the chance to kill our vig for no real gain whatsoever? That he did shoot a liar does not make the shooting any better. You seem to judge him on the outcome and not on the action. Thats imo a bad stance to take.

I'll answer Serdoa in here, since I'm dead .

MJW should have a heavy town lean atm. His play killing Tasunke is a very good move as a villager, and an absolutely terrible move if he is scum. If tasunke lives the whole days discussion would have been about him and nothing else, most likely, and in the end the same result - he dies. killing him allows the town to actually do something productive. not only that, but it was clear Tasunke was lying, which means scum almost always (its not MJW's fault he was actually village here, he should have been scum, the way he played).
Not only that, but the item MJW had would be so powerful in scum hands, but the proper play would be to save it until lylo. There are 2 scum, 3 villagers left - and its fairly obvious who the scum are, village thinks it has won - but bam, MJW kills a villager and wins it for the scum.

To a little bit lesser extent, Azza should have a town read too. I think his reveal was suboptimal for town or scum, but if Azza is scum the lockpick is just about useless now, so its somewhat safe to assume he's town for the time being.

btw, not commenting on whether either is actually town or scum, but from the outside looking in, thats how I would think, I think .


Also, Gasper, on MJW, do you think maybe he's grown out of his crazy? I've read the old games and know what you're talking about, but haven't seen any of it this game or the previous game. He hasn't even misspelled anyones name repeatedly (Ryan is taking over that for him, hah).

[Bigger]

also, Brick.. its too late now, but the "scum can't pass an item to someone they are going to kill" rule probably should not have been made public. It would have been better if you just told us in the quicktopic and didn't even let village know that was a rule.

Novice has already been cleared by that knowledge, and not surprisingly Serdoa came up with a way to exploit that rule to clear another villager (waterbat, gas can).

Pretty soon everyone is going to try to pass items to dead people to clear themselves, lol.

[Gaspar]

Ironic that you misspelled my name in asking me that question.

I dunno - his engagement with Ryan on day 1 was pretty crazy but yes, in general his play has been less over-the-top than normal. In fairness, since I'm not playing I'm mostly skimming his posts on reputation - I was on the receiving end of his crazy too many times back when we both played regularly. There's always been a good player in there, for the record. Its just under 5-6 layers of inanity.

I couldn't disagree with Lewwyn more so far this game. Remains to be seen which of us is right.

[Jkaen]

Not read the game yet, but I do like the twist of it being items, will be interestign to see how it all pans out