Cheater Hater, Ruler of the Modbreakers

[Cheater Hater]

T89 Report:
I'll be honest, I'm very surprised this post came at all--it was only when I realized that I needed to at least look at the save, to determine if I could conceivably play on. Here's what I found:




There's some stuff missing in this screenshot I expected to see--the most obvious are the axe and spear hidden in the fog 1NE of Tarkir (which I forgot about while playing the turn, which caused a pretty big risk/mistake), but the combat log reveals something else:


Yes, Whosit actually lost a chariot while attacking
That means I even have a decent chance of retaking Tarkir on the counter-attack, since I have an Impi and Axe in range. Before I get to that though, let's see why I have a chance of saving Mirrodin (though since I've taken so long to actually post this report it looks like he did end up taking it--and I really hope he didn't find a way to take something else, since that will put me over the edge)--or at least I would have if I would have taken a picture of it
Anyway, what I managed to put in Mirrodin was two Axes (1 C1), two Impis, and one Archer (City Defense 1). He only has 7 units to my 5, and I'm assuming it took him 2 units to kill my archer. Unfortunately, he could use a spare axe to redline the archer, then use his two shock axes to kill mine. After that, he should have odds on everything, and he has a spare spear as well if he got unlucky.

As for Tarkir, things aren't going as well there either:


Obviously the Impi won, but then I took the 50% chance of killing the chariot from across the river--and got unlucky
As I mentioned, I forgot about the hiding axe/spear (turns out stepping away from the game causes you to forget some things ), so the Impi probably would have died anyway (and I still should have moved it away--I'm horrible), and if I would have retaken the city, the Impi could have moved into Tarkir with the axe and stood somewhat of a chance because of the city defenses.

I would have done more, but I'm really not happy with my play, and learning I lost Mirrodin also makes me unhappy--my problems I mentioned above still exist, I just somehow managed to ignore them for long enough to play the turn

[Ceiliazul]

Hey CH didn't see this yesterday or I would have chimed in.

I'll tell you right now that in the 58 lurker thread there was some indignant flaming about your rant, and the vets mostly said, 'he'll calm down'... and you did. It is nerve racking to spend so much time developing something that exists only in a digital world, and trusting other players to not go crazy and destroy your fragile stack of sprites.

I don't agree with the prisoner's dilemma or the 'needs to be fixed' aspect of the early game. Early wars can absolutely be effective (cough*barrylyndon*cough) if done right. I understand why you reacted this way in 58 and here... the disappointment of a crushed sandcastle is a small part of the reason I choose to spend my limited free time lurking instead of playing.

I hope you'll keep playing, if only to make sure that Whosit doesn't profit from this gambit. Can you fight off his force?

[Ceiliazul]

My last reply was before seeing your latest turn report. Good try, if not as successful as you hoped. Keep whipping and give him helll! I know it's not fun any more, but at least there's some pleasure in revenge, right?

[Cheater Hater]

Thanks Ceiliazul for showing up--I was afraid I had scared away the few people I had left reading my thread
I'm still teetering on the edge of an emotional cliff--for example, I had intended to actually do a full report when I started writing T89, but when I realized Mirrodin fell (and thus Whosit has at least five units remaining from that stack), my emotional state started to turn sour and I needed to get away from it.

No one says early wars can't be successful; we've seen many examples of that, and the best result of a war (your opponent is gone, and you have up to twice as much room to expand to) is certainly better than the reward for peaceful coexistence. As such, both sides are incentivized to over-focus on military since the best results of going with military are better than non-military in each case. Even beyond the standard problem with the prisoner's dilemma, there are three other problems that make the whole situation unappetizing:

• Since obsolete units have less and less value as the game goes forward, the "benefit" of a military/military pairing decays a lot as the game goes on, while the benefits of peaceful/peaceful grow exponentially.
  
• There are multiple pairings going on at the same time, and since your long-term goal is to be the best of all the civs, you either have to go full-military (to avoid ending up in the lower tier of military/military by actually making gains) or go non-military (since you have a better average result--but then you risk your opponent going military and wiping you out).
  
• Two of the main incentives to go the peaceful route (tech trading and NAPs) have been eliminated by the standard ruleset. While these options have been removed (along with other incentives, such as most city trades) due to obvious abusive tendencies, nothing's really been added to replace them.
  

Of course, this isn't a pure prisoner's dilemma by any means--obviously player skill and RNG factors like huts/events, combat, and land quality relative to techs all play a role. The definition of military vs peaceful is also very relative--1 warrior obviously beats 0 units, but 5 axes might not beat 3 archers if the archers are attacking across a river on a hill. Players are also often involved in multiple conflicts at the same time, and you may be on different sides of the military-peaceful divide in each of those conflicts (8 axes beats 4 axes, but not 16 axes).

I'd love to see these ideas put into practice--a fixed version of PB16, where each pair actually is isolated (and they're all pairs ), and somehow there were incentives to see each of the three pairings (peaceful/peaceful, military/peaceful, military/military) in action, and see which one is the best position coming out of the early game.

Wow, that went a lot longer than I thought it would--I guess the theory discussion is something that's more interesting than my current position in the game itself at this point. I mean, I'm like you Ceiliazul--the period where I was person asking good questions in the demogame was the best experience I've had in this forum so far, and I thought we were fighting a losing fight right up until Trolls quit.

[Cheater Hater]

T90 Report:
Well, that could have gone worse, I guess--it still doesn't make me happy though. Apparently I was in a worse state in Mirrodin than I thought, since one of his axes got City Raider and actually had odds on my Archer--thankfully I still managed to win that one, but the rest went his way--combat logs if you're interested. He did leave the C2 Shock Axe that actually captured (and razed, very surprisingly) Mirrodin exposed, so I used the Chariot in Kamigawa to kill that, and even escape, but not before getting a screenshot of his stack:


Normally I would expect that chariot to be dead, but surprisingly he didn't kill the Impi that killed a chariot in Tarkir, so maybe I have a chance--doubtful though, since he has a lot more units

Anyway, since I couldn't stomach it this time, here's the domestic overview:




A lot depends on where Whosit's stack goes--at the very least, it's not going to be able to attack anything until T92 at the earliest. If we assume he moves it to kill my chariot this turn, he'll be able to move it on T91 to either threaten Theros or Zendikar. Next turn I'm whipping the axe in Zendikar as well as another archer in Theros, and likely moving the chariot in Kamigawa by Theros, as well as the Warrior in Ravnica (can I move it 1 square on a road and then upgrade it? I'm not sure). If he moves towards Zendikar, I'm not sure what I'll do--if he combines it with some of the northern units, I may have to just buckle down and hope things work. If he moves towards Theros, I think I have more play--I can use my two axes to hit the stack, and I'll have a decent amount of units in there.

Since I'm not doing a real demo analysis, I'll do some quick hits instead:

• My power is now 30th, since he was able to take Mirrodin so easily. Even more shockingly, Whosit's hasn't gone down at all, even though he's lost two axes and a chariot (if we assume power is calculated at EOT, which I'm not sure of--my power has certainly gone down on the graph). All my other stats are in the gutter as well
  
• Colossus has fallen somewhere--hopefully I don't lose Hanging Gardens while I'm dealing with Whosit.
  
• dtay has founded city 13--DO YOU HEAR THAT WHOSIT!!! DTAY IS RUNNING AWAY WITH THIS GAME, AND YOU ARE THE ONLY PERSON WHO CAN STOP HIM! WHILE DTAY IS GOING CRAZY, YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME KILLING THE PERSON WHO CAN'T DO ANYTHING REGARDLESS! Seriously, the main complaint I have with this attack is that Whosit actually has other options--not only should he be attacking dtay, he also has a ton of land to his east which he could expand into! After I finish my backfilling, I have no options other than going across the coast (which I can't afford in any sense of the word) or attacking Whosit--you have no reason to be forcing this issue!
  

[Ceiliazul]

My power is now 30th, since he was able to take Mirrodin so easily. Even more shockingly, Whosit's hasn't gone down at all, even though he's lost two axes and a chariot (if we assume power is calculated at EOT, which I'm not sure of--my power has certainly gone down on the graph). All my other stats are in the gutter as well

Graphs are a turn delayed, (which I think means big battles show up 2 turns after they happen,) but demos and ranks are instantaneous.

I like the recovered hopes you're displaying here, good job not giving up.

[Cheater Hater]

My power is now 30th, since he was able to take Mirrodin so easily. Even more shockingly, Whosit's hasn't gone down at all, even though he's lost two axes and a chariot (if we assume power is calculated at EOT, which I'm not sure of--my power has certainly gone down on the graph). All my other stats are in the gutter as well

Graphs are a turn delayed, (which I think means big battles show up 2 turns after they happen,) but demos and ranks are instantaneous.

I like the recovered hopes you're displaying here, good job not giving up.

I know graphs are delayed, but at least in PBEM they're a little weird: the graph takes in the stats at the end of your turn, even though they don't update until the turn rolls. Does it work the same way in PB, or is it smart enough to take the stats when the turn rolls (since people can theoretically play after they end turn, and the builds don't happen until the turn rolls). What I should have done was check if Whosit was actually top power (which is conceivable; he's top of our group, and I only know Pindicator's the other person at war (though I haven't been checking the score log that closely)) by seeing if the top power changed after killing Whosit's units.

We'll see how long my improved attitude lasts; the only reason I'm okay is because things somehow went better than expected (he didn't kill my Impi, I could kill his 3-promotion axe, Mirrodin was razed and not kept). I'm still not happy that I stand no chance at this game.

[Cheater Hater]

T91 Report:
Well, things are interesting--Whosit surprises me yet again by not moving to kill the chariot, but instead semi-forking Theros and Kamigawa:


Importantly, that stack has a couple chariots in it now, which means it has some reach to it--I have a bunch of Impis floating around, so I shouldn't be too bad. And yes, you'll notice I'm not guarding Theros in that shot--I didn't realize how stupid that was until I was taking my pictures, but the Impi 1N of it still had moves left, so I moved it into Theros. I actually was thinking about the range of the chariots; I just was deciding to guard my axe rather than the Impi at first
Here's my two main stacks of troops:




Even though my forces look sparse at the moment, I think I'll be okay--the main difference between these two cities and the previous two is that they're both on hills. I also get a turn of warning on each of them (other than the chariots, and each city has an Impi in it), and here's what I'll have in each city next turn, if he threatens the city:
Kamigawa: 3 Archers (1 CD1), 2 Chariots, 1 Impi
Theros: 1 Archer (CD1), 2 Axes (though 1 could be taken out at the cost of a chariot), 2 Chariots, 1 Impi, and Whosit is attacking across a river)
Overall, my chances seem good--it's 6 vs 8 in each case (possibly 5 vs 7 at Theros), I have culture and hill defenses in each city, and although Theros has worse units overall (axes instead of archers), Whosit is attacking across a river in that case. Right now my weakest city by far (not counting the southern cities with basically nothing in them ) is Zendikar--it only has Axe+Impi in it this upcoming turn, and he could theoretically threaten it with Axe+Spear+3 Chariots next turn. If he decides to do that and threaten Theros with the 1-movers in the main stack, it could be a problem, but even then I'll be okay I think-- I move the Impi in Theros up to Zendikar, Theros is fine (6 vs 5, including a CD archer and 2 axes attacking across a river), and Zendikar should be okay--even if we assume he wins axe vs axe (his is C1 Shock vs 20% culture, so he'll be favored), Spear vs Impi is 50/50 (C2 vs 20% culture), and then he has to battle his chariots though at least one Impi--I don't know if one full health/near full health Impi is favored against 3 chariots or not. It still is the most worrisome possibility I can see though--outside of something like Whosit's chariots getting extremely lucky with his chariots vs my Impis, of course, but the portal says I didn't lose any cities when Whosit played his side of the turn.

Here's the domestic overview




As you can see, I did fix my mistake, even if it meant uncovering my axe--I thought I should have moved my Impi from Zendikar guard it, but I'm glad I didn't since I could have lost Zendikar in that case. Other than that, not much is happening. Now to demo overview:


Whosit finally went down a bit in power, but I went down a lot more--was it a bad decision to pile my troops into Mirrodin? Granted, I thought my CD archer would do a bit better, but he also had more promotions to give--is there a way to see the promotion sparkles on other units in a stack other than the top one?






This is why I hate diplo not being on--I wouldn't even need to say anything, just package these three pictures together and hope he gets a clue. Yes, that is dtay's 14th city--I could only get to 14 cities total on my landmass after Whosit blocked me off, and that includes the crappy marble city! Also, dtay built the freaking Colossus last turn, meaning he has a real benefit for his sprawl! Seriously Whosit, get a clue!

[Cheater Hater]

T92 Report:
Well, this is a weird way to start my first long-term war I actually have chances in--of all the options I outlined in the previous post Whosit chose...none of the above?




I apparently forgot to get a picture of the stack itself, but nothing's changed there--Whosit just moved it 1S and is continuing to remain flexible with regard to which city he'll attack. Actually, what I'm assuming he'll do is move 1SW and disconnect my copper with his chariots--but why? He has a stack of C2 Shock Axes; why would I focus on building axes on defense? This also lets him attack Theros not across a river, but I doubt that will be successful--after EOT it'll be 7 vs 8, and I have the option of bringing the Impi from Zendikar down to Theros for defense just so I have an extra body. Honestly, unless he decides to either attack Zendikar (which his main stack is far away from, though he does have options coming out of Tarkir) or move his main stack to attack my tundra cities (which will take a ton of turns, and I'm pretty sure it's not worth the many extra turns of unit cost), I don't think he can make any more progress here. As such, I took a risk and offered peace:


Yes, it's straight peace, not that I could offer anything else realistically. If I'm Whosit, I'm thinking I have a bunch of C2 Shock Axes that are going to waste plodding through Cheater Hater's territory, I've made gains in this war (taking Tarkir, burning Mirrodin), and, oh yeah, DTAY'S STILL DOMINATING THIS GAME! Whosit's score has fallen a lot over this war; he was around average/slightly below when he started this war, and now after gaining a city he's tied for lowest player who hasn't been crippled by war (I know Barry has; I don't know if Jowy has, but I can guess based on the similar score he either has or is completely incompetent). Sure, a lot of that's based on whipping all his cities down, and he's actually made some gains in other areas (as we'll see in the graphs), but at some point you have to cut your losses and go for a more-juicy target. As for me, this peace gives me more time to get archers everywhere (especially Zendikar), finish Hanging Gardens (to give me more whip fodder/replace all the pop I whipped away in this war), finish Currency (doubling my GNP in the process--thanks FinHarry for saving my game ) and get in a good position to get Construction and start building Catapults so I can begin my inevitable counter-attack.

Anyway, let's move to the domestic overview:




As you can see, I'm actually moving out of crisis mood, at least in some aspects. Admittedly, some of this is a bit too lax (notably I wanted Lorwyn to work on military, but the chop finished a turn early, so that needed to go into the settler). The biggest risk by far is resuming Hanging Gardens in Kamigawa, but I need to finish that if I'm going to have any kind of chance at this game. As I mentioned, I'm assuming Whosit is going to try to attack Theros and disconnect my copper at the same time--he might even not realize that another archer is being built this turn since I didn't whip (and instead just relied on the overflow). If he does end up moving against Kamigawa I can always 2-pop whip an archer next turn--it wouldn't help against an attack on T93, but I should survive that with my three archers (1 with some fortify bonus, 1 with CD1, 1 with both), and any units that would show up from the east will take a while (unless they're chariots, and those aren't that strong and will likely have to go through my Impi first). As such, I'm using some of my overflow to continue work on the wheat and whales settlers (neither Mirrodin nor the rice settler are anywhere close to safe at this point, even if I did get peace this turn), so I can hopefully found those cities before Hanging Gardens finishes.

You can also see what could be an upcoming attack from the former Tarkir (now Angle Bay--any clue what his naming scheme is?). If we assume he leaves the archer to guard the city, he would be attacking with 2 Spears+Axe+Chariot, assuming nothing else shows up. Thankfully the river means he can't attack us with 1-movers next turn, regardless of what he does.

Now to demo analysis, starting with the all-important power rankings:


Hooray, I gained more power than him last turn! I'm still worried about where the rest of his power is--we can see he has 7 axes (5 in the stack, 1 in Angle City, 1 in the east by Plano), 3 Spears, 3 Chariots, and 2 Archers--that's 72k in units we can see. We also know that he has at least 6k power in population, 24k in techs (Mining/BW/Hunting/AH/Wheel/Archery), and at least one Barracks at 3k, so that brings the total above 100k. Add in some more population (this assumes the cities we can't see are all size 1), some more techs (Sailing and Math are two big ones I didn't count), another Barracks or two, and some basic garrison units, and that provides an estimate of around 120-130k. I have no clue if Whosit is top power or not (though I don't think he is--the top power has been growing slowly, not the spike Whosit has had over the last couple turn), but he can't have that many more units coming.




Apparently it's FinHarry's turn to have a GNP spike (likely from researching an arrow tech a bunch of people have). However, there is something more worrying--Whosit's actually passed me in production this turn
I mean, it's going to reverse next turn (since I'm getting the wonder bonus), but it's still not a good sign.

[Cheater Hater]

T93 Report:
Whosit continues to surprise me, at least in what moves he's doing, if not why he's doing them:


Whosit is certainly committed to being flexible, I guess--though Angle Bay communicates his current intentions:


There's a new axe that's shown up, which brings the total to five units coming out of there--that's 12 units total when combined with the main stack (notice the main stack lost a chariot--yes, that chariot sniped a worker and was deleted--seriously, the fact that you can delete units without moves remaining is another thing that should be fixed). Unfortunately, the fact that Zendikar's on flat ground is making me worried--I can get 9 units in there by T95 I think (3 archers, 2 axes, 2 impis, 2 chariots), and that's a massacre on my side (my archers don't beat his axes, and having two Impis and two chariots isn't good either)--at least he has to make a commitment with his northern units this turn if he wants to attack on T95, so I'll be able to decide next turn if it's worth it. The other thing I'm worried about slightly is if he decides to attack Theros anyway, since I moved some units out of it to give me the option to support Zendikar--it's 7 vs 6, but I have a CD archer and two axes, along with the hill and river bonuses.

Anyway, to the domestic overview:




The one good thing about him focusing his forces northward is that I don't have to worry about my southern development going sour--I think I can finish Hanging Gardens in 4 turns, and that will include both wheat and whales getting the bump. The wheat settler will complete this turn thanks to a chop, settling on T95, while the whales settler will complete next turn thanks to another chop, and will settle on T97.

This is a long post already (and I'm cutting out a lot of pictures), so here's the most interesting piece of information from the demos:


Surprisingly, I'm almost back to the same power levels I was at when the war started--of course, I've completely ruined my GNP to do so, and I'm probably going to lose one more city before this war finishes, but it could have been a lot worse, I guess :/