WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Molach]

Btw I think the doyble kill happened night 2. Remember Injeras singularity kill? Cannot use on night 1. So obviously you use it night 2 right? I cant believe thay did not use it night 2 OR night 3. No, such a thing is good for sowing confusion so use it Asap.

So ot was used night 2, and therefore 2 kills night 3.
Don't know about extra kill though, could easy be a NAP vigilante against pindicator.

Jkaen used a similar power on ww 'crossover madness' to good effect so would have remembered this. Also he did a run-through on night kills, speculating about 2nd kill having to do with atrocities being allowed. So was that villager speculation or deliberatd misdirection?

[waterbat]

Bob,

mindworms are real, but i dont know that your scan will detect them.

Tasunke had to be a worm and we didnt even get confirmation when he died.

Like I said in the beginning - one worm to each faction. Tasunke -> Meiz, Thestick -> Injera

I wouldnt even be surprised if thestick is part of the NAP, but wins with the worms. yes a NAP-NAP tunnel, but one that 1 party's goals are not aligned with the other.

That seems overpowered, UNLESS, the NAPers were informed that they had a mole from the start - they might be nearly as hindered in their own thread as we are in ours.


So...... here i want to address Serdoa (requiescat in pace): In these games, I have fallen in love with speculation. i throw a lot of shit at the wall and see what sticks. Naturally, you remember the ones that stick and assume later that I have leaked it. So yes, the above info is speculative - but i think worth some pondering by the village or at least by our name seer.

[waterbat]

Good pickup molach. I had assumed they never used it dice we didn't have a break in kills. Wouldn't it eliminate most of the confusion if their vig shot pindicator on same night as kill? Seems odd. 3 kills in one night would sow more village panic.

[waterbat]

Dice = since

[waterbat]

Wait. Wait.
In Injera's death notice : He does not know if you are guilty or innocent, but he does know your identity

Sigh. I guess I'm wrong.

[Meiz]

-Sareln is NAP I think. He's played pretty well when he has posted. he's been organized and pretty on point and I think that's due to him having the cheat sheet. He reminds me distinctly of wolf Sareln in WW11 I think. Much more self-assured. Additionally in last night's voting he jumped on Selrahc, saw the claim, unvoted, then voted Injera. I think for a moment all he could think to do was unvote. Just escape from the now toxic bandwagon that was Selrahc. Then he got a second thought and immediately switched to Injera. Injera was going down, better bus ASAP.
-Jkaen needs to talk before I lynch him. Have we heard his claimed role title? What is it? What was he thinking yesterday? Who does he suspect?

Might as well stop playing the game and let Lewwyn do the talking.

3 drones with 1 nap makes most sense by metagame speculation. I'm quite confident that Molach is villager, while Sareln has not given that much reasons to believe it.

[Lewwyn]

Might as well stop playing the game and let Lewwyn do the talking.

Sorry to steal the fun.


I think we still need to hear from Jkaen who has been radio silent since the lynch.

[Sareln]

From iPod, so brief.

Intuition is that we have space for mislynches but I'd rather we not. I think Molach is clean as well. Brick's timeline about when I did my analysis is wrong - didn't happen until after We lynched Mattimeo. Also Mattimeo lynch is a one, two w/ Zak and I left breadcrumbs that I feared recruitment. I'll dig those up tomorrow (20 hours) since coming weekenD is very. Busy. IMO we should lynch Brick to keep 2 night immune villagers into the endgame.

Policy on JKaen would be alright too, but I think weaker than lynching Brick.

Irony: when I keep thoughts to self -> too quiet. When I share -> too smart.

[Meiz]

Seems like Zakalwe wanted to keep his trail as small as possible, by hunting almost solely for Maniac's head. I'm more and more confident that Maniac is villager.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=144
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=196
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=753
"At any rate, the "obvious" way to decode all of this is that some baddie sent this message to Q, hoping to get first Maniac and then Q mislynched. It's just a little bit too obvious, though. In short, this is deep WIFOM territory. I'm kind of tempted to just toss that glass of wine into the fireplace and lynch Maniac."
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=885
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=924
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=946
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1060
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1126
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1157
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1190
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1250

Yep... Maniac is a villager.

Interesting post from Sareln, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=488

"And if Maar has another faction leader name instead of a specialist? That would send a nameseer way out of bounds now wouldn't it?"

"I read Novice that way initially as well, got an alien role, so mention/ask about aliens early in the game to point to later when he's accused and can say: "nope, wouldn't I have not mentioned it at all if I had an alien role?" His excuse makes sense though (Played only original Alpha Centauri, so didn't know about the Alien factions)."

"Disagree with your beyond reasonable doubt thought. Also, if Lewwyn and Maar are gunning for the other, neither needs to be NAP. Could just be a straight-up chaos addition."

I thought his post against Molach was quite good, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1064

But still on general level Sareln seems more suspicious.


Zak was also going against waterbat (and vice-versa).

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=410
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=466
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=850


Zak threw slight dirt on Sareln, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=777
But then used a minor observation (and not that damning, and that's coming from me) from my post to encourage votes against Mattimeo, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=810

Defends Sareln, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=946
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1060

[Selrahc]

I guess I can trust Lewwyn now.

Tried to bane Serdoa last night but was obviously roleblocked. I think my time in this world is rather sharply numbered. In numbers labelled "One more night phase, chump."