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Lynch:
5v: fire&ice ( Roland, Mr. Nice Guy, Meiz, Jkaen, Zakalwe )
4v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Mardoc, novice, Irgy, Lewwyn )
2v: zakalwe ( scooter, Rowain )
1v: Serdoa ( Ichabod )
1v: Roland ( Serdoa )
Not Voting:
Bruindane, fire&ice, Gold Ergo Sum
EDIT: Removed Serdoa from Not Voting list.
I have to run.
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Rowain Wrote:When he sings it sounds like howling so clearly he has to be a wolf 
Finally a valid reason for lynching me. 
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It's funny how easy it is to see someone guilty. Someone mentioned previously that it's almost like first suspecting someone and then trying to fit the evidence against him by force. I don't know what has made me suspect Zakalwe that much, but whatever it was, I can't find it anymore. This is probably what snapped it out finally:
zakalwe Wrote:It seems to me that my voting mainly looks suspicious in hindsight, now that the results are known. Now here's the thing to keep in mind about the wolves: The wolves know how they will look in the morning. Next morning, I ended up with a lot of egg on my face, which shouldn't have been so hard to avoid if I were a wolf.
But what I don't understand is that how easily Scooter jumps for these wild theories (Irgy's "slip", Roland's "slip", metagame accusation against me, my latest message regarding Zakalwe's guilt).
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Meiz Wrote:But what I don't understand is that how easily Scooter jumps for these wild theories (Irgy's "slip", Roland's "slip", metagame accusation against me, my latest message regarding Zakalwe's guilt).
"Jumping for wild theories" is quite different from exploring every possibility. I have never voted for you or Roland, so half of the things you mentioned were so inconsequential to me that I didn't even vote on them.
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scooter Wrote:"Jumping for wild theories" is quite different from exploring every possibility. I have never voted for you or Roland, so half of the things you mentioned were so inconsequential to me that I didn't even vote on them.
Out of curiosity, would a wolf defend another wolf so visibly, as in Zakalwe's case? Do you still see him as a wolf? If so, why?
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Meiz Wrote:Out of curiosity, would a wolf defend another wolf so visibly, as in Zakalwe's case? Do you still see him as a wolf? If so, why?
A wolf will do what he thinks that benefits the wolves. He might throw a wolf under the bus or defend one with fervor if he believes it necessary.
He might even use the same argument you just used.
Example: scooter defended uberfish quite vehemently in ww2 while Irgy and myself threw him under the bus.
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Bah, reading through the thread again I see that my case against Serdoa was based on nothing solid. I understood one of his posts wrong (the one which was the most suspicious)...
Damn...
Sorry, Serdoa...
No vote
I'm starting to feel really dumb...
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Lewwyn Wrote:The Mardoc thing made me laugh. Mardoc always makes me laugh. Mardoc post more.
I'm trying to!
I have to admit, it wasn't me who pointed out your voting record was mostly villagers so far, although I don't remember who did so.
Do keep in mind that most of us are villagers, and so are the top suspects so far, so it's not like the odds were in your favor here.
Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:I love the irony that I'm now a top suspect for you because I agreed with you. The trouble is it makes sense to suspect people who agreed with you.
Looking back on it, the post made sense at the time, and I have to say that without hindsight's help I would still agree with it if I was presented with it again today. What convinced me was that you had found a pattern of people working together in a way that made them look suspicious. I agreed with your analysis and figured the best person to go for would be Novice. As mayor, if he's a wolf he's more dangerous to us than any other wolf, and should be the first to go. I still think that, although my suspicion against him has waned.
So I've done what I can to address Mardoc's and JKaen's suspicions of me. Anyone else that I can specifically address? If I've missed something already posted, don't be afraid to point me to it so I can address it. I'd like, by the end of Day 4, to either be a consensus villager or to be a hung villager*, so I intend to play this day pretty aggressively.
*You can say I have a "Death Wish" but not a death wish. I am the only one in the village that knows that JKaen's suspect list has as many holes at the top as I mentioned before, because I'm the only one who knows I'm innocent. I hope to survive the day, and if I do, I hope I won't be the only one to believe it *
Honestly, me suspecting you for that is halfway a throwaway; I'm serious when I say my judgment has turned out to be poor so I'm not really trusting it. I suppose it's possible that I actually found something that was suspicious, just not suspicious enough.
I really don't think I'd be willing to keep my vote on you if Selrahc hadn't also used my theory as an excuse for a vote, after you did. Although that does raise the question of why two wolves would choose the same tactic. If we hadn't lynched Selrahc anyway, I might still believe my theory, in which case I'd probably be voting with Selrahc and you. Basically, at the moment I'm blaming you for almost pulling off a successful buddying manuever, and only the intervention of the rest of the village opened my eyes.
That said, I still don't think you have great odds to be a wolf, just better than anyone else.
On the subject of fire&ice, I'm not sure what to think. Mostly because he's done such an excellent job of keeping low profile. The main contributions of his that stick out in my memory were his self-vote Day 1 after Irgy and I jumped on him for pressure, and his accusation of Jkaen for posting little content and following f&i around.
I'll admit, he's done a good job of using self-pitying statements to deflect attention, too - and that at least has made me reluctant to vote for him. It could be all an act, though.
I like this theory, because it means I'm innocent too :
zakalwe Wrote:It seems to me that my voting mainly looks suspicious in hindsight, now that the results are known. Now here's the thing to keep in mind about the wolves: The wolves know how they will look in the morning. Next morning, I ended up with a lot of egg on my face, which shouldn't have been so hard to avoid if I were a wolf. If my aim was to save Selrahc, why not just vote for Novice or Pocketbeetle? I highly doubt they are both wolves. I don't know if it's a true theory, mind you, but I like it. If it is true, then it's another strike against fire&ice.
And finally, Serdoa, please do post your thoughts on Roland. I hate to sway in the wind, but I could be convinced if there's a case there. There's plenty of time between now and the end of voting, and one thing that's been constant so far is that there's always a candidate on the block at the end who wasn't even considered early. If you're right, you still might get him!
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker
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Hmm, well, I agree that Roland contradicts himself a bunch. I just don't think that's necessarily a wolfish thing to do, and in fact it's probably unavoidable given the amount he posts. Frankly, that I chalk up to 'Roland being Roland'.
If you're correct in him being a staunch defender of Selrahc, though, that's more serious. I'll have to go back and look at Day 2, yet again. The first time through, though, I interpreted him as being focused on getting Pocketbeetle, not necessarily defending anyone else.
The real trouble in that theory, though, is that Roland brought Selrahc up to 7 votes at a time when Rowain had 7. Which meant that anyone could have nailed Selrahc. novice was the one who did, but anyone could have.
Basically, I'm saying Roland made Selrahc vulnerable at the last minute, even if he defended him earlier in the day. I could see a wolf wanting to pile on after it was already decided, or being afraid to switch off from him at the last moment, but otherwise I can't see the logic in doing that at all. Especially given the suspicion of Pocketbeetle in the air, or the potential for him to choose another fringe candidate.
That manuever, if Roland is a wolf, only makes sense to me if Rowain was also a wolf, and probably novice was a wolf, and they're trying to generate credibility. But that seems like a, well, high risk high reward strategy, to quote Roland. A guaranteed loss of a wolf in exchange for potential, nebulous trust? It just seems too much to assume to me. At least my theory involved all the wolves working together to save a wolf, not to kill one.
It's another brilliant display of irony - first I suspect MNG for agreeing with me, now I'm starting to trust Roland because of arguments against him.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker
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