WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[waterbat]

Oh sorry stick. I nearly missed your addressing me.

I'm sick of it too. I just feel now that we dealt the NAP a crippling blow, the worms might constitute the larger threat. It makes little sense and I have little proof.

.... It's not like the worms have been exposed so we can tell their win condition. Maybe ( if the exist) the mindworms could send that info in a dream?

[waterbat]

the = they

[BRickAstley]

Okay, while peeling some shrimp just now I had a thought.

What if there is a 3rd faction, single player out here?
Now Bigger does not like multi-faction games, but the one renegade does not really make it multi-faction; we've had a serial killers and several possessed in 'normal' games before?

So scratch theory that Bigger is operating for the planet, and consider that a real live player is playing the 'planetary conciousness' role. The player has certain abilities, one of them a scrying ability, one involves the sending of dream-messages to other players. Abilities work through the mindworms (i.e. Bigger).

This player is either neutral, wins with village or has his own win condition. But for the moment the player is working for the wellness of the villagers. Or civilized world.

He did scan maniac, who is NAP roleblocker. He killed pindicator, who was suspect of NAP. He sent some messages.

Okay crazy, and it does not explain the weird dream BRick had nor the nice widdle picture.

Qgqqqqqq's post:

See anythin similar? They must have been sent by same role. So we thought first one was sent by NAP, why would they send that other message? NAP have 2 players left, one roleblocker and one...dreamsender/nightkiller?

So I say it was sent by the planetary conciousness, they do love us humans at least a bit, tried to kill pindicator for us, scanned & delivered maniac. Last two messages...well mabye he ran out of useful things to do. One "general planet atmosphere generic" message and one message from Bigger were remaining choices.

Well gonna cook the rest of the dinner, just shrimp probably ain't gonna meet approval.

I'd be interested in what the other 3rd party-beliebers think about how the mindworms work....just hostile, possible they saw a common interest in eliminating NAP for us?

That's very interesting. I've been operating under the assumption that the mindworms would be a faction instead of a single person, though it is very likely that that could be the case. I'm not sure where you're finding the similarity between the two messages, other than they're both weird they seem very different. I'm just not sure what purpose those posts would have, there's still some key part missigpng.

Did Jkaen or maniac claim their role yet? Not saying they should, because we should establish some sort of order in which to do it if not. So just asking if they have. Their powers might be helpful versus wolves, but I think also it's just a matter of lynching the right people. We atm have 3 mislynches to spare (assume just one faction, one nightkill and no prevented kills), the fourth is game over. Still, each mislynch will remove a suspect wolf along with a villager so can't see how we can miss the final 2 if it should come to 3-2 endgame after taking out 3 suspects.

Well jkaen claimed his role, one I find kinda on the low key side but it seems like it could be legit. So do you have anything to offer up Maniac?

[BRickAstley]

At this point, while I'm still afraid of the mindworm(s) and what they might do to our chances of winning, I think I have to agree that unless we somehow find more info on them, a lot more discussion on the matter is pointless when we have leads to go off of for the wolves. Here are my thoughts on the remaining players:

Lewwyn: obviously the most definite villager we have at the moment. Got Zak taken care of, and I like his reasoning, it seems to have developed from the weird vague votes of earlier into something very clear and so far correct.

Bob: also a villager I believe. His good work in conjunction with Waterbat and Lewwyn is much more likely than some sort of deep cover.

Waterbat: he uh, seems kinda weird to me. But if Lewwyn told him that Zak was going to die last night, and it wasn't mysteriously prevented, then he's definitely cleared.

Sareln.: wolfwolfwolfwolf. Reasons same as before.

Thestick: I really don't know about him. He's gone from about to die to very safe, from sounding über wolf to quite village. I'm still suspecting him for the possibility of foul play, but maybe a bit more likely to be on the mind worm side than wolf side, if he is indeed bad.

Meiz: Came out with some more than decent amount of discussion today. A good analysis of some of zaks previous actions. Since he was the counterpart to injera, its probably ore likely that he's village. I really need to retread more of his play so at though, I feel like I do t know anything he's done very well.

Jkaen: well if he's been out of town and legitimately can't post I won't hold his low comments against him. However, when he does comment it is mainly reactionary and doesn't contribute very much to the discussion. Plus he's been suspicious and dogmatic with his lynch preferences. I'm leaning wolf here.

Maniac: my feelings bout him are similar to those of thestick, excepting the close scrapes out of voting. Was being attacked a lot by Zak, so I doubt wolf. However he has been on the silent side about what he has to bring to the table as far as ability, and he's also connected by name into one of those mysterious dreams. Potential mind worm, but not an obvious threat to be hunting right now.

Molach: yeah you've had one of my biggest swings of opinion this game so far. I really didn't like you when you came up as a drone that had not claimed during the saga, trying to hide and claim your villagerness. I'm not as impressed in the diary as some other people, as I could see anyone doing that good or evil to save up as a lynch deterrent. However, you've had a lot of helpful insight involving mind worms and play analysis so I vote you village. If for some reason sareln turns up village though, I think ill be taking another look, though I doubt that.

Selrahc: well... Really im not all that impressed with anything he's done. Made a last minute baner claim to save his skin? His bane protection isn't anything provable either at this point. Though that's not his fault. Don't get me wrong i don't really suspect you as a wolf right now, I just think that people are a little quicker to trust him then I think there's reason for right now.



Lynch preferences: obviously sareln, though I would also be fine with jkaen as well. If thestick or maniac garner any interest, then I would consider them for the possibility of being mind worm and the chance to maybe find out more about this third party possibility, but they're not as much of a pressing issue right now.

[Sareln]

Today was all about chaos. Mysterious telepathic messages, private communications, alien lifeforms, and drones! Nobody was sure who to vote for, at first. Accusations flew around left and right, and several fights had to be broken up. At midday there were 8 different candidates up to be lynched.

In the last hour the field had somehow narrowed to 3 candidates – the one that called himself Prophet Cha’Dawn, the mysterious talent that claimed to practice medicine, and the librarian that admitted to being an alien, but insisted he had humanity’s best interest at heart.

And really, if you are confused, can you imagine how your GM feels? As I am writing this I still don’t know who is going to be lynched. That makes it rather hard to write something witty and relevant, don’t you think? Next time pick someone to lynch with at least 30 minutes to go before the deadline, or don’t complain about the results!

Serdoa was elected as the new Planetary Governor.

You finally picked Injera, NAP neighbor to be lynched on day 4:

You are Prophet Cha’Dawn, of the Planet Cult. You have secretly aligned yourself with the evil NAP conspiracy.
One conspirator per night may make a night kill.

You have the built the following secret projects:
Telepathic Matrix – allows you have a private conversation with [unknown]. He does not know if you are guilty or innocent, but he does know your identity (Prophet Cha’Dawn).

Singularity Inductor – If you are chosen to do the night kill, you may instead plant a singularity bomb. This will not kill the target that night, but will explode the following night. This can only be used once, and not on night 1.

Xenopathy Dome – You are immune to all attacks from Mind Worms.
You win when all threats to your conspiracy have been eliminated, or if you control a big enough voting block to ensure this.

Congrats! Drinks are on the house tonight!

Before I get to the defense. Molach, If I am reading Injera's ability correctly, I do not believe that it is possible to use the singularity strike to generate a double-kill night in the pattern we've seen without another killer.

Night 1 - 1 Kill (Catwalk (Note))
Night 2 - 1 Kill (Pindicator)
Night 3 - 2 Kills (Slowcheetah (Note), Qgqqqqq)
Night 4 - 2 Kills (Serdoa, Zakalwe)

@ Bigger, could you please update with links to the day 3, night 3, day 4, and night 4 writeups?

[Sareln]

This post is mostly wrestling with BRickAstley, but I'd like to take a brief moment to address theStick. Look you're saying you're voting for me basically because I "lurk" and seem too obsessed with the drone saga as if that's a bad thing. Look, I know I'm innocent so obsessing on the drone saga is actually reasonable for me since I'm as sure as I can be that there's an NAP at the end of the road if I keep pushing. You follow?

Now onto Brick .

Um, I didn't make a timeline at any point. What I said was that you got active when you were mentioned as suspect, which was true, and that you made a big logic post, which is also true. If I had any wording of timeline back there I apologize but I'm fairly certain that I did not, I was just listing my reasonings.

I don't understand what you mean by recruitment.

This is what you wrote on post 1270:

I just don't understand. Molach yeah he's cool, I don't suspect him too much now either. But Sareln?

Really?

How is the fact that he lurked this whole game until his head was on the line instead of trying to help not suspicious? I will agree that his logic posts were very helpful, and I wish I had had the time or foresight to try and analyze for the village myself, but they came at a time to try and save his head.

How is the fact that he spearheaded a lynch attempt on a villager right after that not suspicious? I don't think Mattiemo even really had a lot of negatives to offer a lynch but even still that's where Sareln's attention went.

How does posting Drone logic that concludes that the most likely scenario is that one of the drones is NAP clear his name? By his own admission it makes the most sense for a drone to be NAP, due to the roles we know, the fact that I wasn't told what a drone riot is, and the possibilities for night protection from scrying/vig kills/etc. He also kept saying that the ability was no night-kill, when by Mattiemo's own role it's no night action, to try and downplay the usefulness to the NAP. And no one considers that he might be double bluffing?

And most frustrating, how does his last vote clear his name? He was on Selrahc, up until right after Selrahc claimed Baner. Now it would be bad for a wolf to keep voting on a claimed villager, so he has to move over to Injera to make sure that he isn't suspect. It's not like he had any sort of noble choice there. But he didn't even move right over to Injera! He unvoted first, and I have no idea how that would count to help the village any, other than a hesitation to vote for one of his fellow wolves.

Gah. I didn't know WW would make me wanna so much. I feel you Lewwyn.

The logic posts came after Mattimeo had been lynched. Not before. The way you've written it here, it reads as if the logic posts were part of a push on Mattimeo, when clearly they couldn't have been.

In my drone analysis posts I admit now my own bias in thinking it was Moloch. I think I did this because I thought it would be a dick move by Bigger to give you a role that could only negatively effect village and not warn you that that would be the case. But now, I think that it's significantly more likely that your nerve staplers are merely part of a larger set of abilities. You follow? Your whole claim to trust basically comes from the fact that if you're NAP you got screwed by the GM, but that screwing was entirely within your power to control!

As to recruitment worries, here's how I phrased it when pushing Mattimeo:

On Preferring Mattimeo over BRickAstley to hang

I expect Mattimeo to have another ability that he's not telling us about. He gets a name and I just get a specialist slot, so I doubt we're perfectly mirrored. I expect it to deal only with drones, given his annoyance at what he perceives as a negative incentive to announce if you're a drone. Whatever it is, I don't want my game to revolve about it, so all other things being equal, I'd choose Mattimeo over BRickAstley.

Basically what I feared here was that Mattimeo was NAP and had the ability to recruit drones into the NAP (since he seemed so annoyed that I was "discouraging" other drones to reveal. If that was the case, lynching Mattimeo later would not be able to clear me, but being able to lynch Mattimeo that day would have. Hence he moves up significantly in the priority when combined with your GM-meta-based exposure.

After Selrahc's reveal, I did an immediate unvote followed by a quick scan of the thread. I wasn't sure about Injera, so I took a minute to analyze the situation before deciding to trust Lewwyn and just go for it. I'm sure others went through the same process, I just made it explicit with my votes.

Next Question:

@Meiz, it was you and me on the block before the Mattimeo push started (based on my reading of the votes. Lack of tallies is painful). If Zakalwe and I were both NAP, why the hell would I start a push on Mattimeo with Zak's opening instead of letting it just get into a knife-fight between me and you?

Hell, let's back that reasoning out even further. Why would I be pushing the drone saga as NAP. That's a losing strategy, since this saga does and will terminate pre-Lylo.

I might get a chance to play in the morning (+12 hours) from now. Post questions @Sareln so that I can ctrl+f through them and I'll answer them best I can.

[Molach]

Molach, If I am reading Injera's ability correctly, I do not believe that it is possible to use the singularity strike to generate a double-kill night in the pattern we've seen without another killer.

Agreed, need another killer. Here's pindicator's death:

Early in the morning, just before dawn broke, everyone was awoken by a bone chilling scream. A crowd gathered in the hall, and tried to determine where the scream came from. A quick headcount revealed that only CEO Morgan was missing. The crowd rushed to Morgan’s room and found him lying in his bed. His ebony skin had turned as pale as a ghost, his eyes were stuck open in a look of horror, and his body was rigid.

No NAP-note, that would have wrecked my theory. Different from other deaths too. The horror, the horror.

Thestick: I really don't know about him. He's gone from about to die to very safe, from sounding über wolf to quite village. I'm still suspecting him for the possibility of foul play, but maybe a bit more likely to be on the mind worm side than wolf side, if he is indeed bad.

Consider also the metagame here - he was neighbour of NAPInjera. So he is sent to the very villager camp by same meta-game speculation that is damning to one of the drones - why have two NAPs talk to each other in a separate thread. Why have villager to stop villagers' dedensive powers. Why have 3 identical village roles.

I'm not sure where you're finding the similarity between the two messages, other than they're both weird they seem very different.

The start. "You have a very vivid dream last night...." that indicates that they were sent by same in-game mechanic. Probably same role. Difference in content because he had a finite number of responses to choose from. Like Rowain had 5 different speech-impediments (post-restrictions) to choose from last game. Some were freer than others.

At this point, while I'm still afraid of the mindworm(s) and what they might do to our chances of winning, I think I have to agree that unless we somehow find more info on them, a lot more discussion on the matter is pointless when we have leads to go off of for the wolves.

Added to what I've said before, here's a theoretical victory condition that could explain some things:"You win when the fighting ends, if EITHER faction is eliminated. If you get lynched or nightkilled you lose. If you claim your true role you will be eliminated from the game and lose."
So help winning faction win as fast as possible, lessening chance of the lynch.

Anyway, I'd like to vote maniac.
I've assumed many writings have been un-wolfish, a wolf wouldn't draw attention like that, but it is more likely a new wolf might.
Also that will tell us something about the dream & mindworms.

Failing that, Meiz. After the lynch of Injera people were gonna vote Meiz (or Zakalwe). Why the shift to Jkaen? I prefer Meiz, he was more online closer to of the lynch (I think). And if he is NAP then Sareln becomes very likely NAP too.

But want more discussion here.

[Molach]

Anyway, I'd like to vote maniac.

At the time we discarded the possibility that the message was real and a scan had happened because we already had some proven seers floating about. We had alignment seer, NAP had role-seer and the name-seer to. But 3rd party seer we never considered. So it is possible the dream was (partially) telling the truth. He couldn't claim mindworm-master so invented the (flawed) datajack role which we disbelieved easy.

[Bigger]

@ Bigger, could you please update with links to the day 3, night 3, day 4, and night 4 writeups?

yes, eventually. Not atm because I'm pulling a Lewwyn and I dont want to mess with that stuff until I'm sober tomorrow morning .

I do want to point out, however, that those links are mostly for the convenience of lurkers, so they don't have to wade through a bazillion posts if they just want to see whose winning (or whose won, if lurking after the game is over). If you are in the game, and still alive, you shouldnt need them . Hell, uberfish doesnt even bother in the games he GM's, so....

(not just addressed to Sareln, but to everyone who has asked this.)

[BRickAstley]

@ Sareln.

The logic posts came after Mattimeo had been lynched. Not before. The way you've written it here, it reads as if the logic posts were part of a push on Mattimeo, when clearly they couldn't have been.

In my first paragraph you listed there, you are right, my statement there is false, though I did not mean it that way. What I meant to say was that you made some very neat and concise posts after you were on the block, (mainly 754 and 793), and that while they had nice information they came after you were at risk. I did not mean to suggest that your drone saga posts which came later on were what I was referring to here, and for that I apologize.

In my drone analysis posts I admit now my own bias in thinking it was Moloch. I think I did this because I thought it would be a dick move by Bigger to give you a role that could only negatively effect village and not warn you that that would be the case. But now, I think that it's significantly more likely that your nerve staplers are merely part of a larger set of abilities. You follow? Your whole claim to trust basically comes from the fact that if you're NAP you got screwed by the GM, but that screwing was entirely within your power to control!

Well that's why I've been trying to move away from the concentrating arguments on the meta gaming, and focusing more on what happens in game as much as possible. I don't know why bigger did what he did, though I am confused and dissatisfied with my role, but that's what I have.

As for the nerve stapling, that is my only ability. I do not have anything else that I can do, just that. And it's also unfortunate that it required atrocities to be able to be used, cause otherwise I would have stayed powerless. If you are having trouble believing that that can happen, go back and look at pindicators role pm. Mine, excepting the difference in ability, has the same structure in regards to role.

Also, that is not my sole claim to trust, trying to meta game my ability. My claim to trust is that I've been doing my best to find clues and evidence to find and eliminate wolves. Because my name and role have to do with drones, that's why I've had this as my main focus. But I've also done whatever I can to evaluate other players as well as I can to help find wolves, you can't deny that.

As to recruitment worries, here's how I phrased it when pushing Mattimeo:

Basically what I feared here was that Mattimeo was NAP and had the ability to recruit drones into the NAP (since he seemed so annoyed that I was "discouraging" other drones to reveal. If that was the case, lynching Mattimeo later would not be able to clear me, but being able to lynch Mattimeo that day would have. Hence he moves up significantly in the priority when combined with your GM-meta-based exposure.

Hmm... Limited recruiting NAP role? Yeah, I can understand how that would be a fear. I'm just confused, because if you thought that, why didn't you bring it up right then? That's the first ive heard of it, and it only seems to be helpful with a mattimeo lynch. If he had that power, them fear of a nap that could recruit more drones to the bad side would have likely generated enough interest to make sure that he lynched, and just having that suspicion stated doesn't seem to me like it would have been detrimental to your reputation,mbecause given mattimeos play that sort of a suspicion would make sense. I'm just fearing that you might be making this reasoning up now.

After Selrahc's reveal, I did an immediate unvote followed by a quick scan of the thread. I wasn't sure about Injera, so I took a minute to analyze the situation before deciding to trust Lewwyn and just go for it. I'm sure others went through the same process, I just made it explicit with my votes.n

I agree, it's important to make sure of a vote before you make it, I had a problem earlier in the game with you actually, where I made a noob misread and accidentally voted you without understanding the argument. If I had been voting Selrahc as well, I would have also wanted to make sure of who I would change to. It just seems odd that you would make the unvote post when there are 13 minutes left and you would have plenty of time to take your vote off Selrahc before the deadline. it seems to show respiration, which in itself isn't damnable, but when you fit it in with what else I suspect of you it seems to make sense.

It's really late here, and I'll be able to get on and get out any more clarification anybody wants at least a few hours before deadline.