Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[fire&ice]

Hm maybe I should start a villager owned vote collecting bussiness.
Serving your werewolf needs since 1307.
Anywho just got caught back up and will start writing now.
As for why I am not posting that much . . .

Dear diary,

I woke up today and found the village square empty again I mean there are werewolves to lynch you think people would put aside their jobs and carreers so that people can hold disscusions and arguements with each other.

So I scanned the message board learning about all those wonderful arguements people are having while I am stuck at that stupid school they said I had to go to.
Once I read all the posts and see I have nothing to add I write up my tidbit and get to work with the moving the mountian my teach assigned me as out of school work.

From,
Fire&Ice (A.K.A. the quietest villager.)

[Roland]

Hm maybe I should start a villager owned vote collecting bussiness.
Serving your werewolf needs since 1307.
Anywho just got caught back up and will start writing now.

Ok, we (I) understand you're busy in RL, and thus you don't have as much time to contribute to this as the rest of us. That's understandable, but at this point it's also potentially a liability. I'm not trying to brow beat you for being busy, it's just that as time goes on we eventually reach a point where a dearth of posts stops being acceptable and starts being suspicious. Perhaps you could start with who you suspect, and why? It doesn't have to be a novella, nor even a poem, just something substantial enough that we get a feel for your thoughts. Who knows, maybe you have some great idea that we've yet to discover? Anything's possible.

At any rate, I think part of the problem is our lack of faith in some of the other (potential) candidates. I know for myself I have yet to understand why everyone is so hung up on Mr. Nice Guy and zakalwe, even though I know people have posted at least some of their reasoning (I'm just having difficulty putting the pieces together, I think). That's part of the reason I went back to the beginning, and starting looking things over, and came upon you sitting quietly in the background. The other side of the coin is that, with so little of your posts to go by it's difficult to get a feel for you. At this point, you're one of the only people we have left that we no virtually nothing about. Even Gold Ergo Sum has contributed enough that we have a rough feel about him, and likewise for Mr. Nice Guy, and Mardoc. Again, not trying to badger you, just pointing out where I (and I think several others) are coming from.

Anyway, I just felt a little bad that you came on here to see yourself as the top lynch candidate, with almost half the remaining Village voting for you, so I thought I'd take this chance to try and draw out something from you. It's nothing personal, just process of elimination.

[fire&ice]

@roland

Sorry this is long one might even say a roland length writing.
Hm yes suspect list would be good if I had one. With all my innocents being killed and pocke beetle being lynched and innocent. I just scaped the thing and need to rewrite it. Will get it up tonight hopefully.

Also I have no problems with people voting for me its just that I am a villager and we are geting close enough to matter now by my count.

1) He's one of the quietest Villagers we have, and I'm not just talking posting count. I'm talking posting style, and posting content. He chalks it up to not having anything to add, under the guise of being "the Village Idiot" - what better cover to hide your lack of contributions under than that?
2) He consistently falls smack dab in the middle of the voting blocs - literally! Go look at how the tallies line up: Day 1 exact middle, Day 2 exact middle, Day 3 just above middle (6 candidates, so no exact middle). He didn't vote for MJW, he didn't vote for Selrahc, and he didn't vote for pocketbeetle. He just goes with the flow with minimal explanation and no one ever asks him why. He has one of the most perfect voting records in the game so far - he has yet to actually have a hand in lynching anyone!
3) I have a theory I want to test, and he's as good a test subject as any. No, I'm not going to post my theory - yet. If he turns out a 'Wolf, I'll consider illuminating my thoughts then. If he's a Villager, I'm going to scrap it and go back to square one again. Right now I'd rather choose one person on my list - the safest one - and just go for it.

1) Yep I have nothing to add. You guys always have explored every avenue that I thought of before I can get post my thoughts.

2) I don’t really call myself middle of the pack I always end up voting when the votes are split 3-4 votes on 4-5 people. Then while I am unable to respond to whatever comments are being posted or even voting again you guys lynch someone who wasn’t voted for when I logged off.

I need to rethink my logic you just lynched onther person on my inncocent list. In fact that [SIZE="1"](my list of innocent people)[/SIZE] is a bad place to be right now since everyone who died I thought was inncont.

And this trend continued until we lynched PB. Yes my voting record is perfect BUT, I am trying to lynch people it just seems that no one wants to agree with me on who to lynch.

3) Hm, okay this villager would like to see some waivers before you start testing on me.

joking

Seriously, though how many theories in previous WW games have turned out correct do enlighten us. In a no PM game it is hard to share what you are doing without telling the werewolves making the next test fail horriably.

1. I think the fact that PB's dying words were to "look into fire&ice" carries some weight. Of course, PB has no guaranteed info on him, but to me, his opinion means more than everyone else's here, because I now know for sure he is a villager. Anyone here - if they give their opinion, I always need to take it with a grain of salt since I dont know if they are a WW or not. PB however - I know for sure he was being sincere and helpful. This is NOT insignificant to me - especially since I view him to be a very intelligent and observant person.

2. I found it humorous that fire&ice was so quiet, and then when I included him at the bottom of my top 5 suspects list just once, he responded to it in less than an hour, and of course has not been heard from since... Almost as if he's been keeping an eye out for attention on him, but once it's diverted, he's back to lurking.

3. His behavior does in fact nicely mimic Irgy from WW2. Of course, many villagers have had behavior that mimics Irgy from WW2 as well, however it's still worth noting, as it's a very valid werewolf strategy, that is, stay quiet unless you are mentioned, quickly deflect attention, and go back to lurking, with the occasional content-but-not-really-

1) yes, the guy six feet under so should be making choices for the team. If he can’t prove that he is innocent to you guys while he is alive. What makes his stab in the dark any better while he is dead, rather then when he was alive.

2) So my time for posting is different then many people who are in this werewolf game. They seem like they are signed in but they don’t post anything at all while I am around. Its like I am worse then Zakalwe, People joke about avoiding him but they honestly do avoid me.

3) I seriously would like to contribute but when I show up and have nothing to say and no on to talk with. Repeating previous posts and argueing with myself surly have no intrest in catching a werewolf or keeping a villager in this game.

Since I haven't been right a single time in my WW career, Fire&Ice

And you still aren’t *shrug*

Hmm, right now we have 1/2 the village and the major voting for MNG. While I do think he is a werewolf I also think F&I is one too, and want to make it a bit harder for the WW to hide, and provide the village with a choice

Hi, Jkaen how was that list of suspects working out for you.

My Current hit list
8/10 - Fire and Ice, MNG
7/10 - Cull, PB (both villagers)
6/10 – Sandover (villager), Meiz
5/10 - Serdoa, Scooter
4/10 - Ichabod, Rowain, Roland
3/10 - Mardoc, Zakalwe, Irgy
2/10 - GES, Novice
1/10 - Bruidane
0/10 - Jkaen

Just repeating someone else in saying if the top has so many villagers lets look somewhere else. Granted I don’t like the bottom either except the 0/10.

[Roland]

Serving your werewolf needs since 1307.

So, I just got done looking through every single one of your posts - all 36 of them. Guess what? The only items of significance I could find were the following:

• You suspected MJW (I think).
  
• You suspected Jkaen - across 2 days, I think? Probably your strongest suspect so far.
  
• You thought Selrahc was innocent, and made allusions to the fact that several people on your list of innocents were killed - although you didn't specify lynch, or Werewolf kill, nor even who else was on that list.
  
• You suspected novice for a comment he made in a (his?) PBEM thread.
  
  That's about the last thing we heard from you. I'm not sure if I missed anyone, but if I did I'm sure it will be easy to find - it's not a long list. Thus far you've given minimal reasons as to why you suspect anyone, or think they are innocent for that matter. Most of the time it seems to be for very small, potentially odd, probably innocuous reasons (novice, Jkaen?). We still don't know why you felt Selrahc was innocent, and you have yet to return to your strong conviction about Jkaen, or even tell us why you've moved away from him if that's the case. Overall, you've given us so little to go on it's practically impossible to judge your role based upon your posts. This fact, and the fact that the 'Wolves have yet to eat you, are two of the strongest reasons I have for suspecting you're a Werewolf - the third being how your votes have fallen at the end of each day. I admit, it's not the greatest "evidence" to go on, but it's the best I can come up with, and as I said we're reaching the point where staying as quiet as you have been is a potential liability.
  
  At any rate, I wanted to expound upon my reasoning a bit more as to why I am voting to lynch you, and indeed why I started the first vote (something I've yet to do in this game). Maybe it will give you a springboard to mount a defense, maybe you'll fold and not fight it - in which case I won't know whether to think it the act of a 'Wolf or Villager. At this point, though, you're my strongest suspect, for all the above reasons.

[fire&ice]

Yes, I have been posting minimally about why I have not done large posts about why I suspect who they seem to only confuse people the one I did make several people said was confusing and hard to follow so I have been trying to keep them on the shorter side so I don't go off on a tangent or somthing.

The only reason I might think that the werewolves have not yet eaten me is that I have been brought up as a vote target every day. Day 1 I don't remember but twice I had 2 or more votes not counting my own. Day 2 Irgy I think tried to reinvite the topic, but nothing happened. Day 3 Jkean brought me up. Day 4 this happened.

Alot of people have been says I was a suspect and I was expecting to be lynched this day so no hard feelings.

[novice]

Noone wants to lynch MNG? Screw it, I'll chase another hunch then.

But what I don't understand is that how easily Scooter jumps for these wild theories (Irgy's "slip", Roland's "slip", metagame accusation against me, my latest message regarding Zakalwe's guilt).

This is an excellent point, IMO. For the record, here's scooter's reply:

"Jumping for wild theories" is quite different from exploring every possibility. I have never voted for you or Roland, so half of the things you mentioned were so inconsequential to me that I didn't even vote on them.

Sorry but I'm unconvinced. Scooter really has been tiptoeing the entire game, looking for suspicions to latch onto.

scooter

[Mardoc]

Yes, I have been posting minimally about why I have not done large posts about why I suspect who they seem to only confuse people the one I did make several people said was confusing and hard to follow so I have been trying to keep them on the shorter side so I don't go off on a tangent or somthing.

Really? I'm assuming you're referring to your case against Jkaen? It seemed pretty clear to me, just not enough evidence to convince me. Maybe I should have spoken up at the time to encourage more posting.

The only reason I might think that the werewolves have not yet eaten me is that I have been brought up as a vote target every day. Day 1 I don't remember but twice I had 2 or more votes not counting my own. Day 2 Irgy I think tried to reinvite the topic, but nothing happened. Day 3 Jkean brought me up. Day 4 this happened.

I honestly don't think there's any survivor at this point who hasn't been the target of at least suspicion, if not a serious number of votes at some point in the day. Maybe GES, Irgy, and Ichabod have evaded votes, if I'm remembering right, but they've all been talked about as potential targets.

Alot of people have been says I was a suspect and I was expecting to be lynched this day so no hard feelings.

I'm glad to hear this, I guess, EXCEPT IF YOU'RE A VILLAGER! In which case we'll be making yet another mistake, getting closer to a loss, all because you weren't willing to defend yourself. You've still got 19 hours, but dang it, if you're innocent, please try to get that message across!

It seems the best way to do that is to explain to us your thinking on suspects and innocents; even if you turn out to be horribly wrong like me, at least you'll help us to see how you think. And who knows, maybe you know more than you think you do and you'll point out something that leads to us catching a wolf. Maybe a good place to start is your opinions on the people I think are innocent - novice, Lewwyn, Roland. Am I right, or fooling myself again?

Another possible place would be if you've found any more evidence against Jkaen since your last case, now would be a good time to let us know about it.

Or tell us your opinions on the people currently under suspicion - Mr. Nice Guy, zakalwe, apparently scooter now.

On Day 1, I was willing to accept your self-vote without defense, because honestly we were all guessing anyway. There's a bit of real information out there now, though. Please help us make sense of it!

[Jkaen]

novice, I am quite happy thinking MNG is a WW and lynching him, as I said I just dont want the whole village voting on one person is all. IF votes start dropping against MNG I will switch back

[fire&ice]

I honestly don't think there's any survivor at this point who hasn't been the target of at least suspicion, if not a serious number of votes at some point in the day. Maybe GES, Irgy, and Ichabod have evaded votes, if I'm remembering right, but they've all been talked about as potential targets.



I'm glad to hear this, I guess, EXCEPT IF YOU'RE A VILLAGER! In which case we'll be making yet another mistake, getting closer to a loss, all because you weren't willing to defend yourself. You've still got 19 hours, but dang it, if you're innocent, please try to get that message across!

But have all of you had people try to start band wagons on you every day.

Sure I will get on with it. BTWI thought I had atleast another 24hours did I miss somthing or am I just forgetful.

MNG only in the intrest of keeping myself alive

[Ichabod]

Well, I'm going to propose a new theory. It's not a theory that will end on a lynch vote, but it's something that I want to make clear to the rest of the village, just to make sure everyone is aware of the possibility. It's probably very crazy, I'm probably seeing horns on the head of a horse (if you know what I mean), but, well, maybe it can provoke some discussion.



It starts with a question:

Why would the wolves kill Sandover? He wasn't a trusted villager, he was nowhere near it. If he hadn't been killed last night, he would probably be getting some votes right now (he didn't post much and was highly confrontational). Maybe an attempt at killing the baner? But I don't see any reason to suspect Sandover was the baner either. It was a very strange kill.

I got a similar doubt right after Uberfish was killed on night 2. It was due to my inflated ego, a result od the Selrahc lynch. I thought "well, I'm one of the villagers more likely to be considered a trusted one, so maybe the wolves will kill me today". They killed, as we know, Uberfish instead. So, I thought: "well, Uberfish had the same involvement as me on the Selrahc kill and he's a more intelligent guy, so it was a good move".

But then Sandover was killed and I went: "Really? Sandover? Why on earth"


Now I start another subject. I think that the village haven't played particullary well in neither of the last WW games. But they still won? Why? One of the reasons is that when the number of players start to become reduced, the players who are wolves aren't trusted by anyone. They ended up being the ones left to lynch, even if they played the game very well all the time before that.

What the wolves need is to get a trusted wolf in the village. Someone who no one would suspect. With only this player they can win the game, because no one will vote to kill him. So that's something they should look up to.



And the third subject. There's one player in this game that did everything right so far. From time to time I start suspecting him again, I start reading his posts again and think: "yeah, I knew he was suspicious". But then I see his votes and I go: no way this guy is a wolf. He did everything right so far. He didn't lynch a villager on day 1, he killed a wolf with a brave move on day 2, he defended a villager until the end on day 3. But his posts don't seem to fit with such a nice record.

How can anyone suspect a guy like this??? It's very strange to do it, so why I keep returning to this thoughts???


And then it clicked: what's the common point between Uberfish and Sandover?

Both of them highly suspected Novice. And they were almost the only ones who did it.


It's crazy, I know. Lynching novice is not what I'm proposing here. I'm still unsure about all this. If we lynch him and he's a villager, we will look very dumb to the wolves, because he has been playing the perfect game so far.

So I just post this to let everybody know about what I'm thinking. Please, guys, take a closer look at this and tell me if I'm going crazy. And if you are a villager, novice, I'm sorry for being so stupid.

An example is his vote against Selrahc. He first joined the bandwagon against Rowain (which would end up saving Selrahc) and decided to vote for Selrahc just as the day was ending, so everyone could see he did the right thing...


Anyway, I'm probably going to look like the new villager idiot after this, but I'm going to post it anyway. Maybe someone can see a light after all this nonsense I wrote...

Novice play on day 4 goes against my theory. It's the first time I see him proposing theories (zakalwe, scooter). So it further indicates that I'm just going crazy.