[LURKERS] Mr. Gradgrind's Review

[LucyFur]

In what way is what REM did a farmer's gambit? What or where is the gambit? He's not less defended than any other player (excluding Dreylin/OT4E).

The way I saw it, he ran out to a bunch of cities with limited infrastructure or support. And while he did have some defense, he was stretched far thinner than anyone else. Maybe that doesn't meet the technical definition of a "farmer's gambit", but I'm not sure what else to call it.

[GermanJoey]

In what way is what REM did a farmer's gambit? What or where is the gambit? He's not less defended than any other player (excluding Dreylin/OT4E).

The way I saw it, he ran out to a bunch of cities with limited infrastructure or support. And while he did have some defense, he was stretched far thinner than anyone else. Maybe that doesn't meet the technical definition of a "farmer's gambit", but I'm not sure what else to call it.

Why do you say he was stretched thinner than everyone else, or that his cities had limited infrastructure or support? His cities had the infrastructure as everyone else's AFAIK. What support do you think he was he lacking?

[LucyFur]

do you say he was stretched thinner than everyone else, or that his cities had limited infrastructure or support? His cities had the infrastructure as everyone else's AFAIK. What support do you think he was he lacking?

Not sure why I'm getting the 3rd degree here, but okay. Here's a shot from REM's update today:



He's at the same power as Gaspar, who is currently getting stomped by Dreylin. Of course, REM also holds three(!) times as many cities with the same army size, so it's apparent he's pushed the limits. You can even take his word for it:

Gaspar seems to be dying quite quickly to OT4E/Dreylin, like I would be if I were facing that solider count!

Really, REM is quite down on a number of things regarding his army and infrastructure in his update. And apparently Donovan thinks the same thing, too. He also updated today and showed he's en route to Percy with a dozen units.

That said, I'll add to my previous thoughts. I still really do think REM is in really good shape. He just fired a GA and will fill in all those cities with infrastructure in the next few turns and armies will pour out of his borders in 20 turns. IF he can bluff or fight or otherwise hold off Donovan in a few day's time, that is.

[GermanJoey]

Not sure why I'm getting the 3rd degree here, but okay. Here's a shot from REM's update today:

I don't mean to single you out, sorry if it seemed like I was being aggressive.

I guess I just don't like that term when it comes to Civ. It gets thrown out a lot (and not just in this game, although its funny here that just about every player has accused every other player of running one), which bothers me because I feel like the only reason its used is to put down a player who is doing well in the earlier stages of a game by adding the implication that they're only successful because they got "lucky" that nobody "called them" on their so-called "farmer's gambit." And, frankly, it's a load of shit 99% of the time its used.

The reality is that, and especially so in this game, the farmer's gambit opening isn't a gambit at all. There is almost no risk in developing one's civ firstmost; it is the default. Rather conversely, it is the rush that is the gambit. So, nobody is calling others on any gambits here because everybody knows that nobody is able to "call" anything without going all-in, which is risky enough by itself, but even more so because it would be obviously coming. (as someone going all-in during the first 20-30 turns would stick out like a sore thumb in the demos). First of all, every player starts with a single superior defensive unit that requires a requires a large amount of cavalry to break. If that unit is present on the front you attack, your "farmer's gambit call" probably fails straight-up. Second, every player has access to three different civics (slavery, drafting, and cash rushing) that are able to produce an army out of thin air, and most players have been in two or three of them at once. Third, the defender has superior movement compared to the attacker, meaning that reinforcements are sure to come as long as a city doesn't get 1-turned from outta the fog. (hence Dreylin and OT4E's very careful attention to logistics in the run-up to their war) In order to overcome these advantages, the attacker needs to hit with a much superior army and by complete surprise. For example on just how fast these defensive advantages can accumulate, just look at how overwhelmingly massive Dreylin/OT4E's army was compared to Gaspar's at the start of the war, and yet OT4E still predicts a 10% chance they could fail at the capital. It might have seemed like they were being excessive in their buildup, but they both knew from experience that was the kinda advantage they needed for victory.

And, at any rate, it is hard to see why you'd think that REM had under-built military in his opening compared to other players. Up until just 8 turns ago, T282, REM had roughly equal power to both Donovan and Scooter (you can see Donovan/REM on the graph above, and Donovan/Scooter here, and still has about the same amount of power as Scooter even as of last turn:




REM hasn't been posting regular demos charts, which is unfortunate, but he was ranked 3rd in soldiers in his last one, on T274. I believe it was about 3T after that when Team Khmer really started climbing in the charts. So, it's not that REM's army has been small, it's that Dreylin/OT4E and Donovan are suddenly big, with Donovan being up there specifically because he was reacting to the Khmer. REM hasn't reacted in turn, and that may have lead to to a hole in his defenses, but then that's just that. A hole that he could have covered but didn't, nothing to do with his opening at this point.

That said, it looks like it'll be pretty close, depending on Donovan's attack vector; if he delays at all, I think REM is fine, because it'll take Donovan, who won't have enough horses to take the city on the second turn of the war, three additional turns to move next to the city and attack with the seige. In four turns, REM also has the option to switch into Nationhood and draft, although it sounds like he'd rather not do that if he can avoid it. If anything, I think Donvoan's choice to squeeze out a Frigate this turn may save the attack here, *if* it can block Japanese reinforcements from REM's core from flooding into the city.

[Ichabod]

Man, this game really injected a lot of new life into the forums. A big thumbs up for the organizers. And as always, Sullla is managing to bring a lot of interest and participation, which is pretty nice.

Hopefully the new faces start participating in the other parts of the forums!

And hopefully we'll get more games like this. Interesting setup, interesting map, no drama.

[El Grillo]

I agree with the others who earlier noted that the straightforward setup process helped a lot. Hopefully, with more active players, other hosts can also make use of that model. As for the game, things could change very quickly depending on if and how Donovan's attack on REM goes, and if any of the other teams decide they'd like some fresh IMP cities too. Purely from an entertainment perspective, I'd prefer that the bottom half of the scoreboard still has a chance to surge and make an impact.

[LucyFur]

Not sure why I'm getting the 3rd degree here, but okay. Here's a shot from REM's update today:

I guess I just don't like that term when it comes to Civ. It gets thrown out a lot (and not just in this game, although its funny here that just about every player has accused every other player of running one), which bothers me because I feel like the only reason its used is to put down a player who is doing well in the earlier stages of a game by adding the implication that they're only successful because they got "lucky" that nobody "called them" on their so-called "farmer's gambit." And, frankly, it's a load of shit 99% of the time its used.

Okay, that makes more sense. I'm new here so didn't know "farmer's gambit" was an overused term. And maybe I was being a little loose in my language in calling his settler rush that.

As far as the luck thing goes...REM's played a smart game, used his imperialistic trait the way he's supposed to, and appears to be building up an army just in time. But everybody has to get a little lucky to win; there are risks and tradeoffs in every play style, and the wrong neighbor action and the wrong time can screw any of them.

That said, it looks like it'll be pretty close, depending on Donovan's attack vector; if he delays at all, I think REM is fine, because it'll take Donovan, who won't have enough horses to take the city on the second turn of the war, three additional turns to move next to the city and attack with the seige. In four turns, REM also has the option to switch into Nationhood and draft, although it sounds like he'd rather not do that if he can avoid it. If anything, I think Donvoan's choice to squeeze out a Frigate this turn may save the attack here, *if* it can block Japanese reinforcements from REM's core from flooding into the city.

I'm not a civ expert so can't argue here. REM's obviously not checked out like Gaspar and, like you said, will draft up an army if he has to. My noob gut feel yesterday was that Donovan's not coming quickly enough to catch him off guard. But today I read REM is going after Gaspar! This might be the opportunity Donovan needs. We shall see!

[Hesmyrr]

With what little resistance Gaspar has left, I wonder if it'll actually turn out to be detrimental for Donovan's planned attack.

[ipecac]

The real limiter of the slavery setup compared to hammer-from-tiles setup isn't average-output-per-turn but, as TBS pointed out earlier, happycap, as surprising as that would be. A city optimized to maximize the number of whips since game start could figure on maybe 25-30 total whips during the game duration, but the real number will probably be between 10-15 for most cities before they have to transition out the city towards a hammer-from-tiles setup.

Can't they get more whips out by building theatre + colosseum and running culture slider?

[Kofiman]

Don't be too worried about overusing terms and such, it gives us space to discuss them. Intent can be more important.