Dave's Not Throwing Away His Shot

[oledavy]

Turn 47

So I made a couple very small mistakes this turn, but they were avoidable. I'm going to show them in painstaking detail so you might avoid any in your future games. Hopefully they don't cost me my chance at this one...

No though, this turn was....interesting. Where to begin. 



HK finished one unit, bought another, and moved both out of the city. On the plus side, more free culture! On the downside, this delays the competition of the siege significantly. Additionally, that archer in the city center could make things pretty difficult. So, I figured out the most efficient way to kill the two new units. 



I successfully killed both for a cool 17 culture (66 to date), and put the city under siege at long last. Apparently I needed a unit on that hill to the east of the city. 

Here's the mistake though. 

For that warrior west of the city, I attacked first with my southern warrior and then with my northern one, so that I could end with all my units next to the city. However, this leaves me vulnerable to getting that unit killed by the archer. 



The archer in the city has 25 ranged strength. My warrior is at 20 minus 5 for damage, and an additional 2 for being in the flood plain. That 12 str. differential makes it likely the archer will do just above 50 damage, and the warrior has 49 HP left.    This could have been avoided if I altered the attack order and not been set on getting all my units next to the city. I should have looked at the likely final strength numbers beforehand and made sure to account for the flood plain malus. As things stand, if I'm really lucky, the warrior survives and I pillage the farm next turn. More likely however, the warrior dies.  

All of this is turning the siege of Hong Kong into a more near run thing. I would kill for my third archer right about now. I still anticipate victory. I have farms to pillage, my other two warriors are in good locations they can fortify and heal in. Additionally, I can keep the city under siege for now, even without the third warrior. However, all it would take is another surprise unit or two to scupper this invasion at this point. 

So yeah, that was mistake number 1. 

Here's number 2, and this one is a lot more subtle. 



So, I moved the archer northwest of the encampment sign last turn to potentially move to the barb encampment. This turn, Archduke's archer appeared. I assumed this was a single unit coming to check out the situation around Schuyler. So, I moved and attacked. 

Note that I am on open ground and he is on a jungled hill. This meant I didn't slam dunk him with damage on this first turn (only 33), and he will likely do about 35 to me next turn (21 vs. 15). However, I made this decision for two reasons: 

1. I want to stack up as much XP as possible to get to the +10 str. while in a district promotion, which would really shore up my position. 
2. Getting in the first shot like this will allow me to chase him off in a strict 1v1, because while I don't have a terrain bonus, every turn he's dealing with a mounting damage malus, which will force him to retreat. 

I discovered that this was a mistake quite by accident. 



I moused over his archer with a warrior, and lo, there is a support bonus. There is at least one unit backing him up. This is more that scouting, it's a legitimate probe. Had I known that, the better move would have been to return to Schuyler immedietly. Now, he gets a shot at my archer, which will reduce my future damage output and reduce the strength of Schuyler with the archer from 20 -> 16. If that other unit is a horseman, I could be in a lot of trouble. If it's a warrior, I should be okay. This is all complicated by the fact that the appearance of a barb scout southwest of Hamilton is going to slow my reinforcements to Schuyler. 

Here's hoping the other unit is a warrior..... Without seeing his gold in the diplo screen, I have no way of knowing for sure. 

I think he has a warrior healing in Mykenes at the moment, as the strength of the city went up 2 str. 

No though, I'm very nervous about opening the next turn. But at best I won't get it for another 11 hours or so. The next few turns could be dicey. Fortunately, I have Political Philosophy arriving in 3, and at that point I can switch into Oligarchy and Agoge to start pumping out 24 str. warriors to stem the tide if need be. I really don't want to lose Schuyler though....

Okay, other things:

Farmed the rice, got the eureka for irrigation. Next turn I complete it and move onto Masonry. I should be able to chop out the walls in Schuyler soon. 



However, Archduke completed something in the Classical Era, and I'm betting its iron working or horseback riding. If it's the latter, I may find out next turn. His power didn't go up enough this last turn to confirm to me he bought a horseman though, unless it takes a couple turns to register. 



Finally, Singaboy settled his 3rd city. 



I wonder what he thinks of all the fireworks. 

No though, going to try not to dwell on this game all day, but the next bunch of turns could be a little suspenseful.

[Zero_1627]

Turn 46
The northernmost warrior promoted to Battlecry, and the northeastern one fortified. My archers fired upon the city. Here was the final configuration. 

However, it would turn out that this configuration did not put the city under siege. 

Strange, I'd be sure it should . Perhaps Archers don't have ZoC?... I thought they control at least their own tile though... I do not see where Your altered configuration (one that actually managed to create siege) differs meaningfully ... UNLESS I'm mistaken and:
- ZoC can cross rivers all right
- Archers do not have ZoC at all
That would explain the difference...

His power didn't go up enough this last turn to confirm to me he bought a horseman though, unless it takes a couple turns to register.

Sulla wrote that it's visible on next turn, I think.

Also: thank You for detailed and illustrated BatRep! I certainly enjoy it

[oledavy]

Turn 46
The northernmost warrior promoted to Battlecry, and the northeastern one fortified. My archers fired upon the city. Here was the final configuration. 

However, it would turn out that this configuration did not put the city under siege. 

Strange, I'd be sure it should . Perhaps Archers don't have ZoC?... I thought they control at least their own tile though... I do not see where Your altered configuration (one that actually managed to create siege) differs meaningfully ... UNLESS I'm mistaken and:
- ZoC can cross rivers all right
- Archers do not have ZoC at all
That would explain the difference...

Also: thank You for detailed and illustrated BatRep! I certainly like it

Archers do not start with ZOC, but should occupy the tile they're on. In which case, I am still at a loss as to why the first configuration did not produce a siege.

[Molach]

Archers dont get zoc unless promoted to it. "Suppression"

[Zero_1627]

Archers dont get zoc unless promoted to it. "Suppression"

Control of nearby fields - I know that. But, like oledavy, I thought they do control their own tile...

[oledavy]

Turn 48

So, I opened this turn with quite a bit of trepidation. 

But, it truly is sometimes better to be lucky than good. 



Not only did the archer not kill my wounded warrior, but he moved out!   

Needless to say, my course of action was clear. 



The redlined warrior pillaged to get all it's health back, and the one northwest of the city fortified to heal. 

Killing the archer put me over the top for my civic under research (73 culture from Thermopylae to date). 



t48 Political Philosophy! I think I'm the second to it. Woden's culture is still godly. 

I spent awhile debating which government to take. I need at least 1 military slot for Conscription, so the policy layout of Classical Republic didn't offer me much. The extra amenity for Hamilton would largely be wasted at this point, as +2 amenities doesn't grant any bonus that +1 does already. My effective gain would be .45 GS points per turn. 

Oligarchy would hedge me against Archduke, and get me extra XP for my remaining attacks on Hong Kong, but otherwise would not grant me much in the meantime, and would force me to run a diplomatic card. The debate was really between Oligarchy and Autocracy. I want to be in Autocracy eventually for the building of Petra. I came to the conclusion that I would start out in Autocracy, because it gives the biggest constant benefit from the first turn of adopting it, in terms of +1 to all capital yields. The card layout was also just superior for my needs at the moment. 

If attacked, I will switch to Oligarchy, and then just have to build Petra without the +10% wonder production, since I won't be able to switch back into Autocracy. That will be annoying if that eventuality pans out, but is well worth the extra yields every turn in the interim imho. With that being said: 



Going to military tradition next. I haven't decided firmly what my next civic target will be. Agoge isn't currently being used, but I would rather have in case of emergency than any of the other military policy cards. 

Back to the war. 



I might be able to take the city next turn, but more likely it will fall on t50 - barring any more suprise units of course. There were a couple dicey moments, but overall this war has worked out extremely well for me. The additional culture has been pretty massive. Singaboy hasn't even finished a tier 3 Civic yet. Archduke did finish Early Empire however. 

Speaking of Archduke, the other good news. 



Oh thank god it's just an archer. He did attack my archer as expected and got a pretty solid damage roll, but otherwise this is about the best thing that could have appeared there - short of a scout of course.

Furthermore, mousing my warrior over reveals these are the only two units. Okay, looks like I'm good for now. 9 turns until his GG comes out though, so I need to be prepared. Things are proceeding on schedule, however, and I should definitely have a horseman and walls out in time to face any rush. I don't think I can finish the encampment in that time for overlapping fields of fire, but we'll see. 

Here are the final positions in the south: 



I'll just sit in the city for now and plink away at him until I get a promotion. That +10 str. when in a district promotion will be a nice one to have on the archer defending this city when the attack comes. 

Meanwhile, to the east: 



I imagine Seoul chopped out that campus, but color me impressed because they finished theirs before Hattusa. It doesn't have any adjacency bonuses though....

Anyway, I imagine Singaboy is eyeing this city too, with his strength bonus versus city-states and all. This also seems to be the closest one to his empire. I don't think he's making a run at it anytime soon though, as his power is below that of both me and Archduke. He had better be careful, or Archduke will switch targets and go after Frankfurt. 

No though, really good turn after 24 hours of dread. My journey to Political Philosophy is now over 

[oledavy]

Breaking news. Either Archduke completed/bought a horseman, or he has a warrior in both his encampment and his city. The former is a lot more likely. Looks like things are about to get really interesting around here.

[rho21]

So... is Hong Kong under siege this turn? Your position looks pretty much the same as T46 when it wasn't under siege but no-one seems to know why.

[oledavy]

So... is Hong Kong under siege this turn? Your position looks pretty much the same as T46 when it wasn't under siege but no-one seems to know why.

It was. I'm convinced that besieging is bugged in the game, but I can't confirm it and there may be yet something I'm missing. 

In light of the likelihood that Archduke built a horseman, I opened this turn on pins and needles. There's a certain tension of sort in the sub-forum of late, but the turn pace has been slow this week - only 1 turn per day - which may be contributing. I'm hoping we might get a few more in over the weekend. Anyway, 

Turn 49



Archduke withdrew. His power also didn't go up, and he's still in fifth with 77. I just don't know what his play is here. I thought he would be backing up his archers with a horseman between turns, but it seems it was just a probe. 

So, both my archers attacked the scout. I couldn't quite kill it, but it can't go anywhere it won't be killed next turn. 



Most importantly, my archer in Schuyler will be able to kill it to reach 15 XP and promote. 

You'll also notice that both my cities grew this turn. Schuyler started on the encampment while waiting for masonry to finish. I moved my worker to the stone. Hamilton's worker plantationed the cotton, preserving a +1 amenities bonus for both cities. The settler completes next turn. I was worried that scout might interfere, but it will be dead before it can move northwest. 

This was the final turn of the attack on Hong Kong. 



The southwestern archer had a promotion, but spotting damage amounts, I thought it added up to enough to take the city. Turns out I was right. All five units assaulted the city, and it fell. I accidentally didn't take the above photo until I had attacked with the first archer. 



If I had it to do over again, I would have used the warrior northwest of the city to launch the final attack to save a turn moving back south, but I was wanting to attack from healthiest to weakest to maximize my odds. I missed out on some XP on the archer, but well worth it for taking the city a turn earlier than expected. 



The granary will take 3 turns to repair, at which point first priority will be getting a monument out to speed acquisition of Petra-boosted tiles. 4 pop, quite a haul. The only puzzling thing was that it did not apply either of my amenities immedietly, so the city will suffer a yield malus this turn. I can only assume there is a 1 turn delay. 



The city could take two districts, but I didn't want to put a campus or encampment on any of the tiles currently possessed, nor did I want to buy one. I did go ahead and lay down a commercial hub to lock in the cost though, demolishing a farm in the process. I hadn't firmly decided on a district layout for the city yet, so this decision made the turn take a little longer. I'm going to try and sit down at some point this weekend and finalize district plans for the first four cities. 

This sudden surge of population, combined with the campus and Seoul, has pushed my Science into the stratosphere: 



I'm making nearly double the next closest person. My culture still isn't better than Woden's, but is still very strong (especially when you factor in Thermopylae). I'm making nearly triple what Singaboy is. 

Speaking of whom: 



He finished his encampment this turn. I do think Encampment first opening will become standard for any future MP games. Being able to produce/upgrade horsemen/swordsmen with only one of the requisite resource early on is a big deal, since it's difficult to get more than 1 in your culture in any sort of decent time frame. I opened with a campus, a move that is riskier with the benefit of hindsight, but a move that has paid off handsomely so far. Still, there's time for it to come back to bite me. 

My snowball has grown pretty massive at this point. I'm feeling more and more confident about my chances at winning this game. I think if I'm left alone from this point, I'm going to take this opening into a pretty unstoppable lead. There are three primary threats to my continued dominance, ordered from proximate to most distant. 

1. Archduke attacks me with a GG and Swordsmen/Horsemen

This is the most dangerous and the most likely. While I think I will be prepared for it, there is little margin for error, and it will nevertheless force me to expend massive amounts of cogs into military. On the bright side, I think with the addition of Hong Kong and the strength of my capital, I can still have a good shot at this game even if I lose Schuyler. Schuyler is also a lot less defensible from the north, and I could feasibly retake it even if I lose it. Still, I think I can hold it once I get through the next dozen dangerous turns or so. 3 moves on melee units doesn't count for much when you need to stop at the river. 

2. My neighbors combine against me

They're not dumb people. They're going to both see my science, and probably combine against me at some point to take me down a peg. I'm strong, but not strong enough that I can overpower the two of them at once. Moreover, the longer the game goes, the stronger Germany gets with Hansas. As long as their tech is decent, they will be able to field potentially massive armies against me. On the plus side, I'll have a very defensible front against him as long as Seoul remains friendly. 

3. Woden/Alhambram runs away with the game on the other side of the map and I can't stop them in time. 

It's notable that none of us have met the other two players yet. They must be really distant. I want to get a couple scouts out ASAP to find them and see what they've been up to, along with finding the other 5 city-states. Woden seems to have had a strong start, but has tapered off a bit. Alhambram seems the weaker of the two, although his army is currently larger than mine, which indicates he may be attacking Woden or rushing a city-state - the latter probably more likely. 

The most likely chain of events from here is this I think: 

1. Archduke assaults Schuyler with a GG/Swordsmen/Horsemen (unless he sees better expansion prospects in Singaboy). 
2. Singaboy takes advantage of our war to expand unrestrained, and while Archduke fails to take the city, both of us lose ground relative to Singaboy.
3. I power into a tech/culture lead, and when I get a unit advantage on Archduke, I attack him and seek to eliminate him, which prompts a showdown with Singaboy. 

If I prevail, and provided neither Woden or Alhambram has eliminated the other and become a hegemon, I should be set to win from that. There's a lot of ground to cover between here and there though, and right now, with my conquest of Hong Kong done, I need to redeploy and prepare for Archduke's assault.

[Zero_1627]

Schuyler started on the encampment while waiting for masonry to finish.

So You did buy appropriate tile? I see that Schuyler's encampment was planned outside Your current borders...

Congratulations on successful resolution of Your first war this game!