Dave Fires Up The Epstein Drive [Japan]

[oledavy]

Turns 82-83

Back in the saddle! Now if I can just remember where I was....



Commercial Hub completed. Third unique district, check. Callisto has now started a Trader that will run Io to Ganymede to get some food into the city and finally start it growing towards Size 7 and an Industrial Zone. 

Completing the CH also gave two campuses another adjacency bonus each. When you double that with Natural Philosophy, it brings me up to 49.5 SPT. Let's see where the competition is at. 



Very nice!

However, my plan to rapidly bang out a TD and build an ampitheater in there immediately with Faith has run afoul of the Construction/Games and Recreation bottleneck. So, I'm delaying that while I complete a Watermill and get through these Eurekas/Inspirations with a minimum of wasted culture. 

Abroad, we're finally taking the fight to the barbs. 





One camp cleared, and a third barb unit killed to get me the Eureka for BW. 

Coming turns will feature a lot of barb-busting and finishing a round of infrastructure builds, before getting back to expansion. Singaboy continues to loom large over this game with 4 Hansas now completed.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Welcome back! Happy to see things moving again!

Good! Hopefully the Belt and Saturn will be liberated into the glorious Outer Islands Alliance soon.

Here's hoping the international situation will let you continue to pursue isolationist expansionism, that's the best way to lever the growing science lead. :D

[oledavy]

I actually forgot to mention, Singaboy got a GG a few turns ago, and his power just jumped to well over 300 this turn....

And the Vikings have about 130 in military strength, the English aren't doing much better. 

It seems pretty clear to me where this is going. If Singaboy gets free cities, his already intimidating lead may grow unstoppable. With this in mind, it's now time to use the diplo thread to try to prompt people to action. On the one hand, I feel like the coming storm should be obvious to everyone, and I may be construed as insulting their intelligence by pointing it out. However, if there is even a chance my warning alerts Jpper007, Woden, or Archduke to the danger on their doorstep, it will be worth it.

[oledavy]

Turn 84-85

I fear I'm putting a target on my back by squawking loudly in the diplo thread. However, it is what the thread is for, and if my posts help alert other players to the threat he poses, it will have been worth it. 

At this point, if Singaboy doesn't simply win through his war with the Vikings, I think the endgame showdown will be between him and I. Woden and Archduke are hardly out of it either, though both are lagging in one notable way or another compared to me and the Germans. I think they're more likely to play a supporting role. 

The Spanish and Vikings seem increasingly out of the running. I would never have guessed a simple city raze could be so effective, but CFCJF seems completely demoralized and has seemingly not made much progress towards recovery. He is still at three cities, and now he has Vikings raiding his lands. However, he is still a threat, and I expect Woden or Singaboy will leverage him into being my Spanish ulcer by the end of the game. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings and I move towards a closer relationship. He is continuing to expand his holdings on the west coast. But, if Singaboy attacks and is at least moderately successful, I expect Jpper007 will dedicate the remainder of his game towards exacting revenge. Properly funded and propped up, he could be a useful counterbalance and buffer state between the Germans and myself. 

In the far east, my scouting galley ran into Viking borders, and stopped while I asked for Open Borders. 



He countered with a request for a GPT. 



This was mildly irritating, and I briefly considered just declaring war on him and going through, but I decided to pay his toll. 

Here's how far I've gotten. 



Midgard, his second city. I think the Germans are about a dozen tiles east of here. Midgard is a very nice city, and has a source of iron. I really need to research BW so I can at least see if I have any sources. 

On turn 85, I gained enough to recruit Hildegard. 



The next GP is Isaac Newton. I really wish they had been one of the worse rennaisance GS'S. Newton is really solid, and will dovetail well with Woden's Hypatia-powered campus/library strat. 



He's not as useful to me, as I plan on buying all my universities with Faith. However, he might be worth trying to deny - depending on if I have production to spare and what level of threat Woden constitutes at that point. It will be worth considering going forward. 

Over the last few turns, Archduke has gotten an Admiral, and Singaboy his GG. 



So, on T84, I switched governments to get ready for Hildegard's arrival. 



Scripture only increases my FPT by eight, but remember, it also doubles the science provided by Hildegard. 





There we go. 

Natural Philosophy is currently worth 11 SPT to me, and Scripture is worth 4 SPT and 8 FPT. 

My megalopolis has also reached critical mass, where any new district pays huge dividends. Take that new theater district for example, a short 4 turn build for me with Meiji Restoration. With those two policies in place, it will increase my yields by 4 SPT, 2 FPT, and 2 CPT. Moreover, it will also give me Great Person Points, and allow me to immediately allow me to buy in an amphitheater with Faith to accelerate my progress towards my third GP, a Writer. 

At this point, I don't have to really worry about pushing up my science and culture any farther, as they're largely self-sustaining. My faith economy will allow me to continue to amp them up even while I'm sinking hammers into other things - allowing me to buy universities and amphitheaters in the coming turns. 

Still, it will be awhile until my tech advantage amounts to any meaningful lead. At present, both Singaboy and Woden have more techs than me (although I do have a couple within 1t of completion and am researching an extremely expensive tech). The other bad news is that when I complete my TD, it will probably be the apex of my science lead this game. After this, my SPT will continue to increase, but it will be more of a linear increase as I continue to expand and grow in population, rather than my explosive jumps over the last dozen turns powered by Civics, Hildegard, and Jesuit Education. 

Still, I have good reason to be happy and confident with the outcome of my district investment. I am making double Singaboy's SPT, three times as much as Archduke, and quadruple the measly SPT of the Vikings and Spaniards. Woden continues to be the only one in spitting distance and he is 25 SPT down. 

But unless I get expansion and production going, this science lead will be for nothing. I would much prefer to be in Singaboy's position and have five Hansas than have my science advantage. Still, DOTF and Venetian Arsenal might provide one way to level the playing field a bit. 

Here's what I'm talking about btw: 



Just look at his empire score compared to mine 

That about wraps things up for the last couple turns. I got eyes on Libson's borders: 



And here is the latest Norwegian city. 



Hopefully it doesn't become German...

[oledavy]

I don't know if I should reply to this or not. 

Oledavy is just hoping he can goat some of us into a prolong conflict with somebody he is worried about while he continues to play in his sandbox. I, for one, have better things to do...

[Mild Venting Incoming] 

I mean, if Germany wins, none of us can win. I'm not so much trying to gin up conflict as prompt players to effectively counter-balance the player who is in danger of becoming a hegemon. Woden and Archduke are simply in much better positions to do something about Singaboy due to their being neighbors, and conversely will be the most under threat if he runs away with things. 

It feels like Woden is falling for the "If I just get X, then I'll finally be in position to take the lead in this game and overcome the game leader," trap. That philosophy worked extremely well for him in PBEM2... Sometimes, you just have to roll in with what you have at the moment. This isn't SP, and players won't idle as you try to hit your power spike. 

The fire is happening now, and I don't have confidence in the Vikings (I sincerely hope to be proven wrong). 

Tragedy of the commons at work here people....  

I think it's just the insufferable tone of that post that gets me more than anything else. Of course, it could just be rhetoric. At any rate, I hope I am wrong and the Germans are not about to gut the Vikings. I actually would prefer Woden be right here. Germany getting embroiled in an unwinnable war would be fantastic. But, seeing as the Vikings have no classical era unit yet and only one of each strat resource, I'm concerned.

[oledavy]

[More Venting]

I swear, the diplo thread is really irritating me right now. I imagine to some extent it's just rhetoric, if Archduke does want to begin working against Singaboy, it makes little sense to broadcast it. However, from reading the thread, they are being blinded by science and playing right into Germany's hands. 

Then there's Woden. "I'm already playing as if Germany has ingested a neighbor." That doesn't make sense on multiple levels. If Germany does manage to just eat the Vikings, there is no counter to that, nothing you could have done in the meantime that would be better other than completely absorbing one of your neighbors, which I'm guessing Woden isn't doing. 

At any rate, I tried, time to take a break from it. Having no turn to play and just people being insufferable in the diplo thread is not good for my ability to play a good game. I will cease posting for awhile, other than to communicate with Jpper007 if necessary. They can talk all they want about forming an alliance against me. With my isolation, Defender of the Faith, and Caravels right on the horizon, I will be basically impervious until fleets of frigates are sailing around. 

I would find it rather funny if after all this hooplah an invasion isn't actually underway.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

It seems like Woden and Archduke are still in a Civ4 mindset, where science was king. In that light, I suppose, Singaboy's assurances that "oh, score doesn't really matter, it's science you want to look at!" sort of does make sense.

But science hasn't actually been that important so far in the two PBEM experiences we've had. I mean, yes, Sulla reached legionaries before the Archduke in PBEM1, but honestly his GG made more of a difference, and he wasn't so far ahead in science that the Archduke didn't have legionaries of his own within a few turns. If he hadn't been able to so effectively exploit the map with his naval invasion, Sulla could easily have found himself bogged down in a stalemated war trying to break into Archduke's lands while teh's Germany (!) built up in peace.

In PBEM2, Woden actually had a tech /lead/ over Alhambram, if I recall correctly - but he had been chasing techs at the top of the tree for some reason, and had ignored key defensive techs and civics, so that when Alhambram came calling with his Cossacks Woden had no answer and his civ folded like a wet paper bag. Better tech choices (and perhaps better defensive tactics) would have seen a different outcome in that war. In the eastern triad, you eventually built a tech lead over your rivals, but even then the final war with Archduke was decided more with overwhelming numbers - you didn't build a handful of cannon and muskets, you built an army.

The key point that production matters a lot more in this game than in Civ 4. Everything is more expensive, and the guy who can churn out the most units the fastest will probably win. Plus more production means more commercial districts for more gold, means more campuses, means more IDs for even more production...it's really the root of the snowball in this game, and Singaboy has the best industry in the game. Yes, Dave will maybe have ironclads first. But what will that matter when Singaboy can produce 4 frigates for every ship anyone else can produce? Plus, it ignores the fact that plenty of land means plenty of scope for expanded infrastructure. Eventually, your science will plateau (indeed, it probably already has, you say). Meanwhile, Singa has plenty of room to plant more campuses, probably isn't running the boosted science cards, etc.

Bottom line, the science advantage might give Japan the upper hand later, but Singaboy's production, population, and military edges give him the upper hand <i>now</i> and will in all likelihood give him an overwhelming advantage later.

Sadly, the two players best positioned to do something about it are also those who have demonstrated somewhat disastrous metagame awareness leading to their demise before...

[Sullla]

Oledavy, I thought I'd post briefly to compliment you on another excellent thread and impressive gameplan. Your use of Japan's district abilities plus faith-purchasing of buildings has been really impressive to watch. One of the neat things about Civ6 is that individual civs can be strong in different categories: your civ in faith and science, Singaboy in production, TheArchduke in naval stuff, etc. I'm not sure which elements are the best to have either, although I agree that production is probably the strongest since it can be turned into strength in everything else. Keep it up - I'm looking forward to seeing where you take Japan from here.

[oledavy]

Thank you for the kind words Sullla. I have to say, spamming districts and using Jesuit Education has been an absolute blast. At any rate, I hope to continue to be entertaining. 

Chevalier, I agree with your analysis completely. My primary concern right now is that the player who was already most likely to win is now possibly going to grab cities for free. We'll see what I can do to stop him. 

Anyway, the war has begun. I will have my turn report up shortly. For now though, some propaganda to express my general frustration with the diplo thread. 

[oledavy]

Turn 86

Strap yourselves in boys and girls, we had ourselves a turn. 



Minor irritation, I thought construction would finish between turns when I finished the watermill. Turns out is was just a couple science short. Instead, I won't finish it until this turn, and will likely end up wasting about 5 culture. If I had been a little more on top of my game after coming back from New York, this wouldn't have happened. Other than that, nothing terribly interesting happened between turns. Woden and CFCJesterfool finished their phony war, undertaken purely so Woden could meet HK. 

Anyway, I pan around, and....



Welp, there it is. 

Time to go to work. 



I moved west and attacked, doing 36 damage and taking 28 in response. I moved west first so that I cannot be cut off and destroyed by any following galleys. 



I'm a little unclear on how ZoC works over water, and to that end, I'm unsure if he can move 1 Northwest and 1 West, or just 1 Northwest. I guess I'll find out soon enough. I'm going to try my best to slow him down by exerting zone of control and harassing his units. However, I don't have much hope for Midgard. Singaboy is an experienced commander, and I doubt he would be doing this if he wasn't fairly sure he could win. The military scores back him up. Even if Jpper007 pumps out a classical unit right now, it probably won't be enough. He needs enough of an army to fight the Germans on the field. 

Declaring war on Singaboy also revealed his two CS suzerains. 



The other one being Libson. I made peace with both as a matter of course. 
In addition to its suzerain bonus pumping up all his yields, Buenos Aires is granting him a total of 12 HPT with 5 Hansas 

With 2 CH's, Libson granting him 12 GPT. In short, the MFG situation is even worse than I though. The sad thing is that, even were I to take the suzerain bonus away, it wouldn't deny Singaboy the hammers on his Hansas. The best way to undercut him would be to take the city. This invited me to consider if it would be worthwhile to sink my envoys into Buenos Aires. I have 2, but with the 2 for 1 civic, I can turn it into 3 and immediately take the suzerain bonus away. 

But something was bothering me. Why hadn't Woden sunk more envoys into Libson? Is he planning on taking it? Seems unlikely, the CS is very good on this map, and is likely the only commercial one. He must have somewhere else he's sinking envoys. 

Then it hit me. His weird amount of GPP. The mystery I've been trying to figure out for the last two dozen turns. He's the suzerain of Stockholm! 

....

So, the plan, do exactly to Woden what he just did to CFCJesterfool. Yes, it will piss him off, but I can't say I care too much at this point. 

I will declare war on Woden to meet Stockholm, make peace with it immediately, and sink 3 envoys into it. Even if he has 4 envoys, it will still get me +8 SPT. Best case scenario, it slows his GPP acquisition and puts me in position to contest him for Isaac Newton. I do need to be a little wary though, as he has a galley running around somewhere north of Saturn. Its wounded though, and I have a galley in the area that can clear it out if need be. No though, it seems my SPT has not quite plateau'd yet.

In other news, in the south, Spain finally has begun expanding again. 



Here is my empire on the first turn of war. 



Still not a real conflict, very much a proxy war. 

So, here is what I hope happens. I basically want Midgard to fall. I want it to become an eternal bone of contention between the Germans and Vikings. 

However, the important thing is that Asgard doesn't follow it, and right now, I fear that's a real possibility. Singaboy will probably take Midgard in 2-3 turns and then blitz directly to the Viking capital. 

How will I seek to derail this:

1. I will gift Jpper007 my horses. I should have thought of offering on my turn, but I have told him to ask for them in the diplo thread, so he will have them before he opens t88. 
2. I will detour from Navigation to knock out the 1t tech of BW. Hopefully I have iron already mined. If I don't, I will hopefully be able to mine it with my next builder push. I will make this iron available to Jpper007 if necessary. 
3. I don't have a strong economy, but if he requests a loan to do some upgrading, I will make it happen. I don't have a great need for my gold at the moment, and I can start working all my gold tiles to run it up again in a hurry. 
4. I will embark an undetermined number of troops from Saturn to reinforce his capital area. 

This last one is largely symbolic. Archers and warriors will fare pretty poorly against what Singaboy is fielding, but they can still help. The more important thing is to make the Vikings feel supported and give Singaboy pause before going on to Asgard. I have 1 warrior and 3 archers in the area that can be deployed. I'm also willing to sell/loan them to Jpper007 for gold/concessions in other areas. Public diplomacy opens up some potential deals that are not available in CTON. 

And of course, add to this the OIAS Rocinante seeking to interdict the invasion around Midgard. It's a pity the Vikings didn't have a greater naval presence in the region. For my part, any naval units I send won't arrive until long after the main German force has made landfall, so I am not going to bother. Unfortunately for the Vikings, this war will be decided on the land.