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Irgy Wrote:Well, I've got something to confess to everyone. I'm suffering complete wolf-identifaction burn-out.
I get that, 100%.
That said, after reading F&I's "defense" I'm more and more sure that we're right to lynch him. I really do hate that, too. Because if he's guilty, then something about JKaen's list was right. And that adds the littlest bit of doubt to my suspicions of JKaen. On top of that, Zakalwe is starting to stick out more and more to me. And I get what people are saying about Bruindane. He has brought about theories of sorts, commentaries, and not really been particularly caring about them.
So, to summarize, my list of suspects in rough order of suspicion:
1. F&I. Wow, can't believe he hurdled that spot to #1.
2. JKaen. Much has changed since he posted his suspicion-ometer. I've downgraded him to threat #2. As a result, I'd like to invite him to a clean slate.... what would his current threat list look like, and why... how has it changed from before?
3. Zakalwe.
4. Bruindane.
So that's that.
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
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My Zakalwe vote isn't getting much traction, so I'll swap to Fire&Ice.
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Ichabod Wrote:Sorry GES, but this post is too funny not to point out! I was hoping nobody saw that. 
Rowain Wrote:If you want to fulfill your promise you have to silence Roland & Serdoa
first  .
Damn, I wish I read that first.
Lewwyn is cracking me up today. Roland left his caps lock on a few times I noticed.
So far the most convincing post I've read while catching up is Ichabod's indictment against novice. Mainly because novice is the only guy I had marked down as a definite innocent, and now I question that. It does seem almost too good to be true. That said, this is a brilliant point put forward by Mardoc and echoed more eloquently by Irgy:
Irgy Wrote:Ichabod: It's a perfectly good theory, and it could be true, I just don't think it is. The fact of the matter is, now is not the time to hunt deep-cover wolves. When we have only a few players left, it's much easier to pick them out. When we have a lot of players, not just is it harder to find them, it's also not as useful to find them. If they're running deep cover, happily voting for other wolves and so on, it doesn't help that much to catch them. Wolves who are properly sabotaging the village's efforts, yes we need to catch them sooner rather than later. Wolves who are helping the village to improve their cover we just need to catch before the game ends.
I really wish I had some good ideas. But between trying to keep PBEM11 moving and updated and playing this, I haven't even checked on the Pitboss threads I am admin'ing since Monday. Blarg.
I am notoriously an arch fence-sitter in RL and that seems to have carried over to this. I am used to sorting through evidence, but I prefer the more tangible physical variety than the anecdotal variety. So I am having a hard time getting behind much of anything. I am reluctantly voting F&I, because Lewwyn just doesn't seem guilty to me anymore and I don't have anybody better to vote on. I would feel better voting for Jkaen (not exactly sure why) or Bruindane (erratic), but they don't seem like candidates today.
I'd get on board with lynching Serdoa or Roland to save myself time, though. Assuming they don't litter the thread between now and the morning, I might be able to catch up in time in the morning to actually respond meaningfully to the late voting rushes that inevitably seem to occur.
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Gold Ergo Sum Wrote:... or Bruindane (erratic), but they don't seem like candidates today.
Let me fix that for you:
Bruindane
At least that way I'm voting for someone I'm mildly suspicious of rather than someone I've got no idea about who just seems a better candidate than fire&ice.
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I guess at some point I need to update my suspicionometer, but I am scared of the amount of effort it will entail again!
As for options, I was trying to keep 2 options up high, but that seems to have dwindled away to just a lone candidate (this time F&I not MNG). I think MNG is still ranked 2nd on number of votes though, so will flip back to him for a while to keep options open
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My innocentmeter is spiking for F&I. I'm not even sure we would learn anything from his death. Maybe a more controversial target is in order, and apparently I'm alone in suspecting scooter.
Zakalwe
I have to run.
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Irgy Wrote:Let me fix that for you:
Bruindane
At least that way I'm voting for someone I'm mildly suspicious of rather than someone I've got no idea about who just seems a better candidate than fire&ice.
There's one very silly reason why I think Brundane might be in the innocent camp. And that's a wolf comment regarding the "image upload episode"
Selrahc Wrote:I don't think that's much of a mystery. If he has the image on his PC then it's a couple of second worth of work in paint to create. And it's clear that he is intending to create a grave stone for every death, meaning he has the image basically ready.
Although... hmmm. The image creation wouldn't take long, but factor in a little time to write up the post, to read Bob's posts and search for a quote, to upload the image...
Maybe you are onto something after all.
Somebody want to volunteer to test run time? I'd be happy to give a random villager name to serve as a control case. Or Bruindane could do it himself, which would probably be the fairest.
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8 hours to go:
Lynch:
7v: fire&ice ( Roland, Mr. Nice Guy, Meiz, Zakalwe, Mardoc, scooter, Gold ergo sum )
2v: Mr. Nice Guy ( fire & ice, Jkaen )
2v: zakalwe ( Rowain, novice )
1v: novice ( Lewwyn )
1v: Bruindane ( Irgy )
Not Voting:
Bruindane, Ichabod, Serdoa
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novice Wrote:I think your idea that a wolf would need to go "deep cover" to win the end game is pretty good. I'm not a wolf though, but this is sort of why I've postulated an "active wolf" (Zakalwe, scooter and Rowain being my prime suspects for the role).
I also agree that a "deep cover" wolf is likely, but I don't think I fit the description. I also think Rowain is innocent; at least I have yet to see a theory that explains why Selrahc voted for Rowain if he is a wolf. So far I just see two opportunities for creating a deep cover: nominating yourself for mayor, and killing off Selrahc. Novice did both of these, but I think he is innocent (more on this in a minute).
Among the Selrahc voters, Scooter does look like a good candidate for a deep cover wolf, though I'd say it could really be any of them except maybe Roland (I doubt he could pull it off). Another thing that I just noticed is that both of the night kills after Selrahc was lynched were in fact Selrahc voters. So do we really want to adopt the same targeting strategy that the wolves have been using? In short, I agree with Irgy that it's too soon to be chasing deep cover wolves, but we'll definitely get around to them eventually. So for now, I'll just say this: if you're a wolf and voted for Selrahc, you'd better kill off another wolf soon if you want to maintain your cover. 
Regarding Novice. He does have a playstyle that attracts suspicion, but like he said, I believe he is actually consciously balancing that level of suspicion very carefully. Basically, whenever he gains a little trust, he spends it on pulling some strings and shaking things up a little, to see what he can deduce. There's nothing wrong with the wolf-as-mayor theory per se, but what would you expect the wolf-mayor to do once he actually was in position? Start methodically clearing people by looking for signs that they could be innocent? Seems unlikely to me.
Now who to vote for... I still think we should focus first on the people that didn't vote for Selrahc. The only person we have excluded so far in that category is Pocketbeetle, and I doubt the wolves had to work very hard to make that happen. I still see MNG and fire&ice as the best candidates. I swapped from the former to the latter yesterday, citing MNG's "complex mental model of the situation" as the reason. Today, he posts this (addressed to Lewwyn):
Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:For what it's worth, you're right. In your universe, I am a wolf. That means in the village that we are actually playing for, I am a villager. So moving your vote off of me is the right move for this game, but the wrong move for your alternate upside down world. Because yours is a world of double negatives on top of triple reverse mirrors with one way signs pointing to dead end roads. See, this is fun!
Overdoing it a bit, perhaps? Also, seems like there was something weird going on yesterday involving Lewwyn and MNG switching their votes around. To me, it looks a little like MNG is trying to deflect suspicion on to fire&ice, while Lewwyn dives for cover and votes for MNG.
Fire&Ice has posted a defense now, and to me it frankly looks quite unconvincing. Which is to be expected, really: how could he mount a good defense? In my mind, he has painted himself into a corner here by trying to lay low and just hoping that people would forget about him. That, or he simply is a villager who failed to contribute. Either way, it may be too late to turn back now. If he's a wolf, it would be suicidal for another wolf to defend him at this point, so the lack of defense by others is totally inconclusive.
That said, I'd be happy to flip my vote back from fire&ice to MNG, for the reasons given above. I'm not convinced (which is hopefully a good sign), but I feel pretty confident that at least one of them must be a wolf.
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Something just clicked into place in my mind. Maybe it's that crazy theory the wolves have been waiting for. I haven't really looked into the facts yet, but I feel like I need to get this off my chest right away.
Roland, Lewwyn, Meiz, Mr. Nice Guy
I know I just said that I don't think Roland is capable of it; but then I posed the question: what if he was capable of it? For some reason, the above list of names immediately popped into mind. I have to look more into it to see if it really makes sense; I might bite the bullet and try reading the whole thread, but I don't have time for that right now. Either way, I'm switching my vote back to MNG since he is among the four.
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