WW11 - Civilization

[novice]

Brainstorming in class, while supposed to do statistics:
1) Investigate interaction between Selrahc and Cyneheard
2) Look into plausible alternate wolf duos other than Selrahc and Cyneheard
3) Determine if there's any reason to suspect MJW

I reread parts of day 1, and Selrahc and Cyneheard both showed no signs of being villagers, and also attracted their fair share of suspicion already on day 1, most notably by Lewwyn and Meiz iirc. Possibly by you too, Catwalk?

They did not act as a coordinated duo - they both commented similarly on the same posts, almost cross-posting, and argued with each other at times. Only prudent if you're wolves, though.

[novice]

Red = NAP of Evil
Bold = Confirmed role

Alive:
Catwalk - Gandhi of India - 3-shot baner
Cyneheard - Mansa Musa of Mali - 2-shot roleblocker
Gaspar - Stalin of Russia - 1-shot vigilante
Mardoc - Pericles of Greece - 1-shot lynch preventor
MJW - Napoleon of France - Triggered bulletproof
Novice - Ragnar of the Vikings - Neighbour
Sareln - Lincoln of America - Starts with Democracy tech.
Selrahc - Bismarck of Germany - Voteblocker
Tasunke - Julius Caesar of Rome - Double voter

Dead:
Jkaen - Louis XVI of France - Triggered Bulletproof
Meiz - Genghis Khan of Mongolia - Intimidator
Ichabod - Joao II of Portugal - Neighbour
Zakalwe - Sitting Bull of the Native Americans - Tracker
Scooter - Tokugawa of Japan - Self-Avenger
Rowain - Charlemagne of the Holy Roman Empire - Flavour Police
Slowcheetah - Montezuma of the Aztecs - Watcher
Lewwyn - Boudica of the Celts - Tiebreak Immune

[Catwalk]

I reread parts of day 1, and Selrahc and Cyneheard both showed no signs of being villagers, and also attracted their fair share of suspicion already on day 1, most notably by Lewwyn and Meiz iirc. Possibly by you too, Catwalk?

They did not act as a coordinated duo - they both commented similarly on the same posts, almost cross-posting, and argued with each other at times. Only prudent if you're wolves, though.

I didn't notice them much. But to be fair, I'm a horrible villager My only two big suspicions this game have been Lewwyn (wildly conflicting statements about Mardoc) and slowcheetah (doing nothing much, playing the newbie card and suddenly being all eloquent about a massive push on me). I had a slight hunch on Ichabod too, but could easily have switched to someone else if zakalwe hadn't presented evidence against him.

We need to set up the lynch so we get optimal information from a mislynch, should it happen. We shouldn't go hang potential stealth wolves straight off the bat, but I do think we should plan around making sure a stealth wolf won't be able to screw us over. It might be a good idea to get an overview of how much we believe semi-confirmed villagers. Other than novice, I think anyone is potentially a very daring stealth wolf. Ichabod was a lost cause, so there's little town cred gained from voting for him (as hanging scooter sadly demonstrated). slowcheetah was a less certain lynch, but there was a lot of pressure on him and wolves may have decided sacrificing him was worthwhile.

I think we should keep pressuring Selrahc and Cyneheard all day, and hang whoever is least convincing. For my part, I'm strongly inclined to hang anyone who gives up defending himself (should that happen). So if either you really is a villager, fight with teeth and claws to assert your innocence if you wish to help the town.

Also, I think we should keep digging into the blocked/protected vig shot.

[Selrahc]

I've got two possibilities here.

1. Gaspar is doing all this to set up mislynches on at least me, and possibly Cyneheard. The kill on Lewwyn after our squabble looks placed to get me killed. The "failed nightkill" makes it look like I've got wolf allies protecting me. After I die, he pushes the blame onto Cyneheard to add another mislynch and get the wolf team one step away from victory. Even if Gaspar then gets lynched, that is still a good trade off for a wolf team.

2. Cyneheard roleblocked Gaspar, and didn't have time to remove that after Gaspar made his announcement. Since he denies he has the capacity to block kills, and denies roleblocking Gaspar, this would mean Cyneheard is a wolf.

3. The same as 2, except the roleblocker is not Cyneheard.]

On balance, I suppose I'll have to go with Gaspar, even though I haven't been reading him as all that wolfy. I don't think I can do much to derail this lynch. Far too much setup has gone into it by the wolves... but just bear in mind Gaspar when you're voting tomorrow. Don't let him sucker you in.

[novice]

Selrahc, if you're a villager, wouldn't lynching Cyneheard first maximize village odds from your pov? Also he's lynchable, then we could mislynch you and finally lynch Gaspar.

[Tasunke]

A wolf Gaspar does not a wolf Cyneheard make (necessarily)

[novice]

A wolf Gaspar does not a wolf Cyneheard make (necessarily)

I'm not sure that answers my question. Lynching Gaspar's partner should be easier than lynching Gaspar, at this point.

[Catwalk]

On balance, I suppose I'll have to go with Gaspar, even though I haven't been reading him as all that wolfy. I don't think I can do much to derail this lynch. Far too much setup has gone into it by the wolves... but just bear in mind Gaspar when you're voting tomorrow. Don't let him sucker you in.

You had me interested until this part. Suspicion against you has been brought by mostly villagers, and I always interpret a surrender as wolfish. So keep fighting, if you're a villager. I still think you're the best lynch candidate at this point.

I do find the Gaspar theory somewhat interesting. He's been a vocal proponent of going for the obvious theories first, which could set himself up nicely for a play on Selrahc. I'm not sure if his argument that a wolf would never do this holds up under scrutiny. As a wolf, he'd know that his "shot" would fizzle which would point very strongly towards Cyneheard. If Cyneheard is innocent, this theory would be very interesting to pursue. Without knowing Cyneheard's alignment, I don't think hanging Gaspar is wise.

Whatever the case, someone is lying about the vig shot. Most obvious candidates are Gaspar and Cyneheard. Selrahc's power has already been revealed, and it matches his (scanned) tech closely. So I don't think we need to consider the possibility that Selrahc lied about his power. Multiple powers on a wolf would be possible, though.

[MJW (ya that one)]

If Selrahc is somehow not guilty Gaspar is a great choice tommrow. The wolfs with their "roleblocking/redirecting" powers would have hit Catwalk so they could kill novice. So Gaspar would be unlikely to be roleblocked/redirected by team wolf and also team village for obvious reasons. If Selrahc is not guilty then there is no way he would get protected ether way. So Gaspar lied about his role then because their is no likely way Gaspar could have his shot fizzle.

This is all just theory.

[Mardoc]

1. Gaspar is doing all this to set up mislynches on at least me, and possibly Cyneheard. The kill on Lewwyn after our squabble looks placed to get me killed. The "failed nightkill" makes it look like I've got wolf allies protecting me. After I die, he pushes the blame onto Cyneheard to add another mislynch and get the wolf team one step away from victory. Even if Gaspar then gets lynched, that is still a good trade off for a wolf team.

Selrahc, if Gaspar's a wolf and you're not, why didn't he swap to voting for you about this time (Friday afternoon, between my post and uber's confirmation)? Why go to the effort to fall with you if you were mislynched, when he probably could have had you directly?

It was quite likely that you could have reached the block yesterday.

Current then is this:

Slowcheetah (5) - Catwalk Gaspar Mardoc Novice Sareln
MJW (3) - Cyneheard Selrahc Slowcheetah
Selrahc (3) - Lewwyn Tasunke MJW

Seems like you were actually pretty vulnerable yesterday. In fact...let's dig a little deeper into that question, shall we?

@everyone - this may be tooting my own horn, but don't forget that little bonus we had yesterday, of uber not confirming the day extension until after the original deadline had passed. It's almost like a second vote, that might have gone into effect.

Slowcheetah (5) - Catwalk Gaspar Mardoc Novice Sareln
MJW (3) - Cyneheard Selrahc Slowcheetah
Selrahc (3) - Lewwyn MJW Tasunke

Here's an even better example of 'what if' - not only could any of the five slowcheetah voters swapped to someone else, they could have had their pick of MJW or Selrahc as a target. Yes, technically MJW was on slowcheetah at the lynch, too, but as he was on the block it's harder to read anything into it.

It makes it really very hard to consider Catwalk, Gaspar, Novice, and Sareln anything but confirmed villagers in my mind; the only way they're wolves is some convoluted plot to sacrifice one of their own for credibility. And we know Lewwyn's innocent, so that only leaves Selrahc, Cyneheard, MJW, and Tasunke as uncleared.

And...slowcheetah, if he'd swapped to Selrahc, could possibly have gotten him lynched instead. Certainly could have guaranteed this with a wolf from his own bandwagon, if said creature existed.

So, sure, if you guys would rather lynch Selrahc first, and Cyneheard later after we have confirmation, I'll hop on board. That would tell us more about the three iffy people than a Cyneheard lynch would.